Advanced Traffic Information and Management Systems State of the Art and Future Challenges Jaume Barceló, Professor Emeritus UPC-Barcelona Tech and Linköping University THE LONG WAY TOWARDS ATIS/ATMS • THE EUROPEAN WAY – Projects from various Framework Programs starting in 1989 – CLAIRE, CAPITALS, KITS, TRYS, WAYFLOW, ENTERPRICE, EUROCOR…. • NATIONAL FUNDED PROJECTS – Singapore, Madrid “Calle-30”, Toronto-DOT, USA “Lower Manhattan”… • USA APPROACH – FHWA ICM Program: Oakland and San Diego, CA; Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio, TX; Montgomery County, MD; Seattle, WA; and Minneapolis, MN. – FHWA: Guidelines and Methodological Frameworks ATIS/ATMS-Stockholm/J. Barceló 2 AN ORGANIC VIEW ON THE EVOLUTION OF ATIS/ATMS ARCHITECTURES THROUGH PROJECTS CLAIRE KITS DRIVE-I (1989-91) TRYS CAPITALS DRIVE-II/ DRIVE-III (ATT Program (1992-1996) 4th Framework Programme (1997-1999) ENTERPRICE ISM (WAYFLOW) 2000-2003 Madrid C-30 2006-2008 ICM/FHWA Guidelines In4Mo 2011-2012 ICM SANDAG Global Integrated Architecture 2014 ATIS/ATMS-Stockholm/J. Barceló 3 APPROACHES TO SYSTEM’S ARCHITECTURE ATIS/ATMS-Stockholm/J. Barceló 4 THE KITS MODEL ATIS/ATMS-Stockholm/J. Barceló 5 SCENARIO ANALYSIS IN THE TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT LOOP (ISM PROJECT) real traffic data strategy data input scenario scenario evaluation evaluation simulation results adjustment ALMO ALMOContent Content traffic trafficpattern pattern knowledge knowledge base base O/D-matrix net validation and calibration ATIS/ATMS-Stockholm/J. Barceló AIMSUN 6 4th EU Framework Program 1999 Project ENTERPRICE long-/mid-term strategy update Graphical User Interface D O D O 3 3 D O O D O D O D O O D D D O D Historical traffic data Geographic data Planning data (control strategy) Interface to External Systems real-time TIC data O D D O O Scenario Scenario Editor Generation O/D Estimation Model Scenario Simulation AIMSUN2 microsimulation Model Qualitative analysis ) (Knowledge Bases) Analysis Quantitative & Evaluation analysis (statistics) Bus Dati Software Software Data Bus Geographic DataBase (Network Model) Evaluation DataBase (Scenarios, results, ...) ATIS/ATMS-Stockholm/J. Barceló 7 KEY COMMON COMPONENTS • Real-time traffic data collection • Traffic data processing • Traffic mobility patterns: Origin-Destination trip matrices • Dynamic Traffic Model (usually a meso or micro traffic simulation model) – To estimate current traffic state – To short term prognose traffic state evolution • A Decision Support System – Rule-Based (Knowledge Based System) – Scenario Analysis and Evaluation (Based on KPI) ATIS/ATMS-Stockholm/J. Barceló 8 A USE CASE: THE INTERMODAL STRATEGY MANAGER (ISM) ATIS/ATMS-Stockholm/J. Barceló 9 STEPS IN THE DECISION MAKING PROCESS: Which is the appropriate strategy? (ISM Project/WAYFLOW) Historic Traffic Data Base Real TimeTraffic Data Base Real Time Traffic Measurements from Detectors Problem Identifier Problem Network Definition Strategy Data Base Problem network Apply strategy Select strategy Evaluate Impact (Simulation) Make Decision ATIS/ATMS-Stockholm/J. Barceló Traffic Problem 10 MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES • Strategies are a combination of Policies • Policies for control over time ๏ฎ Traffic Lights – Signal timings • Policies for control over space ๏ฎ VMS – – – – – Blocking lanes Managing tidal flows Linear speed control Ramp metering Rerouting ATIS/ATMS-Stockholm/J. Barceló 11 STRATEGY DEFINITION AND OPTIMISATION • Loading relevant data • adaptation of OD-matrices for the problem area historic real world data normal route Strategy data base strategies VMS Problem area Geographical Data model Result data detector OD-matrices patterns ATIS/ATMS-Stockholm/J. Barceló 12 FHWA: Guidelines and Methodological Frameworks ATIS/ATMS-Stockholm/J. Barceló 13 AMS FRAMEWORK FOR ICM ICM Interface Trip Assignment Modal Choice Trip Distribution Trip Generation • Revised Trip Tables • Refined Travel Times Regional Travel Demand Model Peak Spreading • Trip Table Network Resolution • Network • Other Parameters STRATEGIC LONG TERM PLANNING LEVEL Meso- and/or Micro-simulation Enhanced Performance Measures No • VMT/VHT/PMT/PHT Dynamic Assignment Yes Convergence ? Pivot Point Modal Choice • Travel Time/Queues Throughput/Delay • Environment • Safety Refined Transit Travel Times • Refined Trip Table (Smaller • Zones and Time Slices) • Refined Network Benefit Valuation OPERATIONAL SHORT TERM MANAGEMENT LEVEL User Selection of Strategies Outputs • Benefit/Cost Analysis • Sensitivity Analysis • Ranking of ICM Alternatives Cost of Implementing Strategies Source: V. Alexiadis, (2008) Integrated Corridor Management Analysis, Modeling, and Simulation Experimental Plan for the Test Corridor, USDOT Integrated Corridor Management (ICM) Initiative, FHWA-JPO-08-035, EDL 14415 ATIS/ATMS-Stockholm/J. Barceló 14 INTEGRATED CORRIDOR MANAGEMENT (ICM) AND ANALYSIS, SIMULATION MODELING (AMS) APPROACH Source: V. Alexiadis and D. Sallman, Cambridge Systematics; A. Armstrong, SAIC, (2012), Traffic Analysis Toolbox Volume XIII: Integrated Corridor Management Analysis, Modeling, and Simulation Guide, Report No. FHWA-JPO-12-074 ATIS/ATMS-Stockholm/J. Barceló 15 INTEGRATED MACRO-MESO-MICRO A CONSISTENT APPLICATION OF THE AMS METHODOLOGY REQUIRES: • A consistent Network Modeling at all levels for Off-line and On-line applications • A smooth and consistent information exchange between all levels ATIS/ATMS-Stockholm/J. Barceló 16 THE METHODOLOGICAL PROCESS MACRO๏ณMESO๏ณMICRO MACRO LEVEL: TRANSPORT PLANNING MODEL OF A REGIONAL OR METROPOLITAN AREA IDENTIFICATION OF CRITICAL SUBAREAS OF INTEREST Traversal WINDOWING INTO THE SELECTED SUBAREA AUTOMATIC GENERATION OF SUBAREA MICRO OR MESO MODEL Graphic subnetwork selection AUTOMATIC GENERATION OF SUBAREA TRAVERSAL OD (IF REQUIRED) ADJUSTMENT OF THE SUBAREA TRAVERSAL OD FROM AVAILABLE DATA Selected Subnetwork INPUT TO MESO OR MICRO MODEL SUBAREA SIMULATION ATIS/ATMS-Stockholm/J. Barceló 17 TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS REQUIRE OD MATRICES ADJUSTED TO TIME SLICES TO PROPERLY APPROACH TIME DEPENDENCIES OF THE DEMAND Within-day time variability of traffic demand gi(t) of i-th OD pair gi (t) Traffic demand (number of trips per hour) 3000 2500 2000 gi 1500 1000 500 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Time of the day Adjusted OD matrix for time-slice jth from link flow counts ๐ ๐ → ๐๐ ๐ , … , ๐๐ ๐ , … , ๐๐๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐๐ ๐ ~๐๐ = ๐ถ๐ ๐๐ ๐ → ๐๐ ๐ ๐๐ , ๐ ∈ ๐จ๏๐จ TRB 2014 paper 14-3793 18 USE CASES • Madrid Calle-30 (Aimsun) • Integrated CorridorManagement (ICM) demonstration sites: – San Diego (SANDAG) (Aimsun) – Dallas (Texas Model) – Oakland (DYNUS-T) • Edmonton YellowheadTrail Case Study (OPTIMA –VISUM/VISSIM) ATIS/ATMS-Stockholm/J. Barceló 19 ATDM/AMS system to support simulated real-time analysis. ATIS/ATMS-Stockholm/J. Barceló 20 BASIC ARCHITECTURE OF DSS IN Aimsun ON-LINE (SANDAG) Real time raw detection data Demand OD matrices data base Detection pattern historical data base Detection data filtering and processing “OD Matcher” Pattern recognition module Filtered detection pattern Quality Indicators Quality Manager module Selected OD matrix AIMSUN Micro/Meso Short term forecasting Forecasted traffic data Parallel Simulations AIMSUN ONLINE Real time control plan data Real time events detection Traffic management strategies ATIS/ATMS-Stockholm/J. Barceló Traffic Management Operations 21 THE KPI BASED DECISION MAKING PROCESS 22 ATIS/ATMS-Stockholm/J. Barceló DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM: VISUAL COMPARISON OF SCENARIOS ATIS/ATMS-Stockholm/J. Barceló 23 ATIS/ATMS-Stockholm/J. Barceló 24 San Diego:Data Sources for PeMS ATIS/ATMS-Stockholm/J. Barceló 25 ICM San Diego Subsystems ATIS/ATMS-Stockholm/J. Barceló 26 Yellowhead Trail ATDM Framework ATIS/ATMS-Stockholm/J. Barceló 27 CURRENT AND FORTHCOMING TECHNOLOGICAL SCENARIOS ATIS/ATMS-Stockholm/J. Barceló 28 ICT TRAFFIC DATA COLLECTION SCENARIO o Vehicle n Reaches RSU k At time t1 i Vehicle n Leaves origin i At time t0 Vehicle n Reaches RSU m At time t2 Vehicle n Reaches RSU p At time t3 THE “SMART CITY” MULTIPLE HETEROGENEOUS DATA SOURCES (SENSORS) Vehicle n Sends AVL message At time t0+2๏t Vehicle n Sends AVL message At time t0+๏t Data (RSU Id, mobile device identity, time stamp ti) sent by GPRS to a Central Server Data (RSU Id, mobile device identity, time stamp) sent by GPRS to RSU-IDx a Central Server RSU-IDy Loop detectors / Magnetometers On-board unit of equipped vehicle n captured by RSU-IDx at time t1 V2V exchange AVL Equipped vehicle sends message (id, position, speed) at time t On-board unit of equipped vehicle n recaptured by RSU-IDy at time t2 Average speed ๐ซ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐น๐บ๐ผ๐ − ๐น๐บ๐ผ๐ ๐๐ − ๐๐ • Point detection with discrete time resolution • Inductive loop detectors: • Flows (veh/hour), occupancies (time %) • Spot Speeds (km/hour) • Traffic mix (% light, heavy vehicles) •Point detection with continuous time resolution: • Magnetometers • Time in/Time out (๏ฎflow counts, spot speeds, occupancies, traffic mix) • Bluetooth/Wi-FI, LPR, TAGs • Time tag, vehicle/device identification and downstream re-identification (๏ฎ sample counts, travel time measurements) • Continuous time-space detection • GPS, Connected Cars • Time tag, position (X, Y, Z coordinates) local speed, heading • Smartphone data (Open question) ATIS/ATMS-Stockholm/J. Barceló 29 BETTER DATA BETTER MODELS BETTER INFORMATION BETTER SERVICES ADVANCED (ACTIVE) TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT & INFORMATION SYSTEMS (INTEGRATED CORRIDOR MANAGEMENT) ATIS/ATMS-Stockholm/J. Barceló 30 TRAFFIC DATA ANALYTICS (I) Dealing with heterogeneous traffic data: -Data filtering, completion and fusion -Processing huge amounts of data (Big Data) Kernel Smoothing Methods & traffic flow Missing data supply based models to identify and remove outliers Network with Multisensor Technologies for Traffic Data Collection Measures from Technology 1 (Loop Detectors, Radar, Magnetometers…..) Data from Measurement Point1.1 ... Data from Measurement Point 1.n Data Collection Protocols Measures from Technology 2 (GPS) Data from Collection Point 2.1 ... Raw Data Filtering and Completion Data from Collection Point 2.m … Messures from Technology k (Bluetooth, LPR, TAG) Data from Measurement Point k.1 ... Data Fusion Methods of Type II (Kalman, Bayesian…) ATIS/ATMS-Stockholm/J. Barceló Mobile Data from Smartphones Data from Measurement Point k.p Fusion Results: state reconstruction, map of speeds and their time evolution,….. 31 IMPROVED CONCEPTUAL ARCHITECTURE FOR AN ADVANCED TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT AND INFORMATION SYSTEM Data Collection Protocols Real-Time Raw Traffic Data Traffic Data Processing & Management Real-Time Cleansed Traffic Data Sensored Urban Nework & Data from Mobile Sensors Profile Pattern Recognition Process Data Processing Level I (Data Cleansing,m Missing Data Models, Profile Generation & Profile Identification ACTUATORS TO IMPLEMENT STRATEGIES · Gate In/Gate Out · Reroutings · Speed Control · Control Changes · Other Historical Database · Traffic · profiles Other data · Weather · Calendar · · · · DISSEMINATION OF INFORMATION TO USERS Variable Message Panels Internet/Smartphones Navigation Equipment Other Historical Seed OD Database Selected Profile ONLINE ONLINE DECISION DECISION SUPPORT SUPPORT SYSTEM SYSTEM Impact Evaluation Process SELECTED STRATEGY DYNAMIC TRAFFIC MODELS Management Strategies Data Processing Level III ATIS/ATMS-Stockholm/J. Barceló 32 IN THE WAY TO CREATE “COMPREHENSIVE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS” Raw Traffic Data from Multiple Sensor Technologies Historical Traffic & Profiles Database Data Processing Level I (Data Cleasing, Missing Data Models, Profile Generation) Profile Selection (Day, Time of the day…) Calibration of Filter Parameters Data Processing Level II (Data Fusion) Consistent and Reliable Traffic Data Local Traffic State & Short Term Forecasting Multisensor timespace state reconstructions Estimation of TimeDependent OD Matrices Refinement of Historic Profiles Raw Data Filtering (Per Sensor) Yes Clean, complete real-time traffic data Accept Data? No Missing Data Model Outlier Replacement Data Processing Level III Multisensor Bayesian Fusion Models Dynamic Traffic Models Information for the Decision Making Process ATIS/ATMS-Stockholm/J. Barceló 33 TRAFFIC DATA ANALYTICS (II) Identification of time-dependent mobility patterns in terms of Origin-Destination (OD) Matrices Exploiting ICT measurements Off-line estimation of a good input OD seed per time interval Destination Origin t ijτp number of trips from Origin i to Destination j in time period ๏ด for purpose p Nonlinear bilevel nondifferentiable optimization problem solved using: -A special version of Stochastic Perturbation Stochastic Approximation at the upper level - A Dynamic User Equilibrium Assignment at the lower level k k T g kk ๏ซ1 ๏ฝ Dgkk Pk ๏ซ1 ๏ฝ DPk D ๏ซ Wk Initialization Factors determining the quality of the estimation: 1. % technology penetration 2. Detection layout 3. Input OD seed ๏จ ๏ฉ Pkk๏ซ๏ซ11 ๏ฝ I ๏ญ G k ๏ซ1Fk ๏ซ1 Pkk๏ซ1 ๏จ G k ๏ซ1 ๏ฝ Pkk๏ซ1FkT๏ซ1 Fk ๏ซ1Pkk๏ซ1FkT๏ซ1 ๏ซ R k KF recursive dynamics g kk๏ซ๏ซ11 ๏ฝ g kk๏ซ1 ๏ซ ๏ก d k ๏ซ1 ๏ณ 0 ๏จ dk ๏ซ1 ๏ฝ G k ๏ซ1 z๏จk ๏ซ 1๏ฉ ๏ญ Fk ๏ซ1g kk ๏ซ1 ๏ฉ Online Ad Hoc Kalman Filter to estimate the time dependent OD ATIS/ATMS-Stockholm/J. Barceló 34 ๏ฉ ๏ญ Network Model Time-dependent OD matrices Traffic Control Data Traffic Network Space State Initial path calculation Estimation and selection and Short Estimate the new path sets according to the computational MAIN OUTPUTS Term calculate paths and algorithm for equilibrium (MSA, Forecasting paths flows at time t Projection…) adding new paths - Time dependent flows or removing existing ones for - Time dependent travel times Based on a each OD pair and time interval - Queue dynamics Perform Dynamic Dynamic - Congestion dynamics Network Loading (meso Traffic Model traffic simulation) Mesoscopic Estimate path travel Traffic times at time t Simulation NO (Projects YES DUE Convergence criteria STOP SIMETRIA, (Rgap ) satisfied MITRA, In4Mo) COMPLETE NETWORK INFORMATION Alternative paths and forecasted path travel times LinkVelocidad SpeedenMap Link Travel Tiempo de viajeTimes de los arcos los arcos ATIS/ATMS-Stockholm/J. Barceló 35 CONCEPTUAL ARCHITECTURE OF THE DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM FOR ADVANCED TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT AND INFORMATION (A) (A) OFF-LINE OFF-LINE GENERATION GENERATION OF OF CANDIDATE CANDIDATE TARGET TARGET OD OD MATRICES MATRICES (B) (B) ON-LINE ON-LINE SELECTION SELECTION OF OF TARGET TARGET OD OD MATRIX MATRIX REAL-TIME TRAFFIC DATA HISTORICAL TRAFFIC DATABASE (PROFILES/ BEHAVIORAL PATTERNS) TARGET MATRIX GENERATION FOR SELECTED PROFILE INITIALIZATION HISTORICAL OD MATRIX REAL TIME DATABASE OF TIME-SLICED OD SEED MATRICES OD MATRIX ADJUSTMENT PROCESS NETWORK MODEL SELECTED TARGET FOR TIME SLICE k REAL-TIME OD KALMAN FILTER ESTIMATOR REAL-TIME TRAFFIC DATA FOR TIME SLICE k MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES DATABASE ONLINE EVENT DETECTION COMPLETE NETWORK INFORMATION PREDICTED OD MATRIX FOR TIME SLICE k+1 DYNAMIC TRAFFIC MODEL DEFINITION OF KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS IMPACT EVALUATION PROCESS SELECTION OF THE OD TARGET MATRIX FOR TIME SLICE k LinkVelocidad Speed Map en los arcos Tiempo de viaje de los arcos Link Travel Times EVALUATION OUTPUT CURRENT VS. FORECASTED STATES Alternative paths and forecasted path travel times DECISION SUPPORT PORCESS (C) REAL-TIME ESTIMATION AND PREDICTION OF THE OD MATRIX FOR TIME SLICE k+1, ESTIMATION OF CURRENT AND PREDICTED STATE, STRATEGY SELECTION AND IMPACT EVALUATION ATIS/ATMS-Stockholm/J. Barceló 36 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS (I) • The accumulated European and US experiences prove that the implementation of an ATIS/ATMS project is large and complex and doesn’t admit shortcuts. • All the existing architectures share the main components: – – – – Real-Time Traffic Data collection, filtering, completion and fusion Generation of traffic profiles for varied conditions Off-line and (desirably) On-line OD estimation tools Simulation models for network state estimation and short term forecasting computationally performing – Decision Support Systems with capabilities for scenario analysis and evaluation • Common critical issues: To be compliant with the widely accepted AMS framework, long-term planning models and real-time operational models should: – Integrate planning and simulation traffic models with consistent network representations๏ Off-line and On-line models must share common components at appropriate levels ATIS/ATMS-Stockholm/J. Barceló 37 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS (II) • There are in the market available commercial tools that partially fulfill the main requirements, but: – To increase the efficiency of a successful implementation it would be desirable that some key components (Data Management, OD estimation…) should be replaced by state of the art components – To achieve that, the tool must be able of flexible and efficient integration such components – Even the most advanced commercial tools must be customized: every ATIS/ATMS project is site specific ๏ • Network models must be built and properly calibrated • Data samples of significant size must be collected • Algorithms for data analysis and fusion, OD estimation, etc. must be fine tuned , calibrated, adapted… ATIS/ATMS-Stockholm/J. Barceló 38 RELATED PAPERS 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. US Department of Transportation, Research and Innovative Administration: – Analysis Modeling and Simulation (AMS) Analysis Plan Final Report (2013) FHWA-JPO-13-22 – Analysis Modeling and Simulation (AMS) Capabilities Assessment (2013) FHWA-JPO-13-21 Cambridge Systematics, Decision Support Systems for Integrated Corridor Management Needs Analysis, Report for the FHWA, 2009, www.camsys.com H.Kirschfink , M.Boero , J.Barcelo (1997), Real-time traffic management supporting intermobility and strategic control, ITS World Conference, Berlin M. Boero, H. Kirschfink (1999), Case Studies of Systems; the ENTERPRICE model, Erudit Workshop J. Barceló, M. Delgado, G. Funes, D. García and A. Torday, An on-line approach based on microscopic traffic simulation to assist real time traffic management, 14th World Congress on Intelligent Transport Systems, Beijing 2007 M.Bullejos , J.Barceló , L.Montero (2014), A DUE based bilevel optimization approach for the estimation of time sliced OD matrices, International Symposium of Transport Simulation, Ajaccio, June 2014, Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences (2014), available at www.sciencedirect.com J.Barceló, L.Montero, M.Bullejos, M.P. Linares, O. Serch (2013), Robustness and computational efficiency of a Kalman Filter estimator of time dependent OD matrices exploiting ICT traffic measurements. TRR Transportation Research Records: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, No. 2344, pp. 31-39. J.Barceló, L.Montero, M.Bullejos, O. Serch and C. Carmona (2013), A Kalman Filter Approach for the Estimation of Time Dependent OD Matrices Exploiting Bluetooth Traffic Data Collection. JITS Journal of Intelligent Transportation Systems: Technology, Planning and Operations, 17(2):1-19. J.Barceló, F. Gilliéron, M.P. Linares, O. Serch, L.Montero (2012), Exploring Link Covering and Node Covering Formulations of Detection Layout Problem. TRRTransportation Research Records: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, No. 2308, pp.17-26. Models for Smart Mobility in Smart Cities 39 THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR YOUR ATTENTION ATIS/ATMS-Stockholm/J. Barceló 40