Foresight
A Tool for Environmental
Assessment & Management
Lisa Pace
Malta Council for Science & Technology
Lisa.pace@mcst.org.mt
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Outline:
• Dimensions of environment.
• Uncertainty in complex Environmental
Systems
• Rationale for carrying out foresight-type
exercises in environment-related issues.
• Techniques/tools used in environmental
foresight.
• Participatory processes and dialogue
• Consensus conferences
• Scenario analysis. Decision-support tools.
• Look-out panels Biomarkers
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The Environment – A Complex System
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air
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water
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Land
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Addressing Complex Environmental
Problems as Systems
Priority areas of action in the EC’s Sixth Environment Action
Programme “Environment 2010: Our future, our choice”:
Climate Change (Green House Gas – GHG- Emissions)
Nature and protection of biodiversity
Environment and Health
Sustainable use of natural resources
Chemicals and Air Pollution
Waste Prevention and Recycling
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Climate
Change
Gene Technologies
GMO
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air
water
Fisheries
WASTE
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pollution
research
Land
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Transport
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Environmental represent Complex Systems
with high degree of Uncertainty:
• Incomplete information or knowledge exists
on how these systems work.
• Little is known on how they impact the
environment and society.
• The impact is difficult to quantify.
• Models may propose different outcomes.
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These systems raise uncertainties of many
sorts.
• What is the impact of GMOs on natural
biodiversity and human health? What is
the cost of a “No GMO” Policy?
• How will climate change impact
biodiversity?
• What is the impact of fisheries on marine
ecosystems?
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In this climate of uncertainty:
• Decisions must be made TODAY, before
conclusive evidence is available…….
• The stakes revolving around these issues are
normally high, with strong economic and social
interests which often conflict with environmental
aspects.
• What if these decisions are wrong? What impact
will they have on society at large?
• How can uncertainties be taken into account in
environmental policy-making?
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Environmental Assessment: measuring,
managing, reducing uncertainty:
• Uncertainties cannot be eliminated but simply
managed effectively and in a transparent manner.
• Methodologies to assess the risk and uncertainty
associated with a policy issue. Environmental
Assessment. The degree or level of uncertainty
must be presented to policy-maker.
• Methodology to assess or evaluate knowledge
generated in policy process. How robust and
reliable is this knowledge? And therefore how
effectively does it contribute to policy cycle?
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Creating socially-robust Knowledge to
manage (reduce) uncertainty:
• Public participation – stakeholder engagement - in
policy cycle. Increased legitimacy and
transparency (this is more about the process other
than the product!)
• Quality control such as extended peer review.
• Interdisciplinarity
• Accountability and Transparency of policymaking process.
• Holistic approach to environmental management –
Ecosystems Management Approach
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The policy cycle:
Foresight is seen to feed into the policy cycle at three
levels:
• It provides tools for stakeholder engagement.
Involvement in the policy process
• It provides for visions of future policy options
through scenario analysis.
• It can be used as an early warning signal of
environmental problems
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Rationale for carrying out Environmental
Foresight (1):
Prospective analysis can be used “…to identify emerging problems
and solutions early. Provide an “Early-Warning System” to
environmental issues/problems.
This is more effective than the conventional approach of waiting to act
until adverse effects on the environment and human health are high
and in some cases irreversible”. (Alternative Futures, June 2003).
Foresight can help questions such as: what are the envisaged
future environmental problems? What steps should be taken to
solve them (e.g. air pollution and its management) and even perhaps
prevent such problems from arising in the first place?
•
Foresight is useful in environmental assessment, a tool which
provides basic information on the current state of the environment but
also addresses the future state of the environment (EEA, 2000).
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Rationale for carrying out
Environmental Foresight (1):
Foresight is a useful tool for synthesising and communicating
complex and extensive scientific information to decision makers
and the public, thus bridging the gap between scientists and
the community.
• A participatory approach in a foresight exercise promotes Dialogue
i.e. “interaction and mutual exchange of ideas or results between
stakeholders (including scientists) with the aim of promoting cooperation; it is a process of multi-lateral communication across
disciplines and institutions
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A toolbox of foresight methods can be
applied to environmental management
• 1.
Scenario Analysis with both qualitative and
quantitative
elements
(SAS,
story-line
and
simulation). Back-casting techniques
• 2.
Consensus conferences
• 3.
Expert Panels
• 4.
Delphi surveys
• 5.
“Look-out” Panels
• 6.
modelling
• Not all these methods are “future-oriented” but
complement techniques typically used in foresight
exercises. Scenario analysis is the major foresight tool
used in environmental management strategies.
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Participatory approach in Environmental Policymaking: Building a Science –Society Dialogue
• A participatory approach in a
foresight exercise promotes
Dialogue i.e. “interaction and
mutual exchange of ideas or
results between stakeholders
(including scientists) with the
aim of promoting cooperation; it is a process of
multi-lateral communication
across disciplines and
institutions
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Broad Comparison:
Participatory Approach
Non-Participatory Approach
Involving wide range of stakeholders in
the foresight process i.e. in the methods
used to implement foresight.
Involving mainly expert knowledge in the
foresight process, via report writing; expert
advice (for example an expert is asked for his/her
“opinion” or advice on an environmental issue);
one-to-one consultation.
Process-oriented
More product-oriented with a focus on
recommendations which emerge from foresight
exercise.
Because of the above, it has been found Not necessarily the case.
that there is increased ownership of the
foresight process. The stakeholders feel
more
strongly
about
the
recommendations or action lines
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Consensus Conferences –
– Democratic tool used to promote dialogue between experts and
non-experts.
– Involves the non-expert or lay public in policy-making process
where the non-expert could include decision-makers in company
(top-management), directors in government departments,
ministers, lay public, board of directors etc.
– Described as a “Citizen’s Jury”. A citizens or lay panel a list of
key questions to address to an expert panel during the three-day
conference.
– Used to discuss “hot”, emerging issues in S&T.
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Consensus Conferences:
•
•
•
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Examples:
Widely used in Denmark in relation to
public perception of GM Foods and
gene therapy.
UK National Consensus Conference on
Plant Biotechnology, 1996
UK National Consensus Conference on
Waste, 1996
Fast Food and technoburgers,
Norwegian Consensus Conference,
1996
Safety and Ethics of GMOS, Korea
1998
Korean Second Consensus Conference
on Cloning, 1999
Australian Biotech Consensus
Conference, 1999 (GM Foods and Feed
Issues)
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Scenario Building:
Classification of Scenarios:

Qualitative (story-line)
Descriptive, narrative text
Exploratory (descriptive)
Begin in the present and
explore trends in the future
versus
Quantitative
Numerical, graphical information
Based on computer modelling
versus
Anticipatory (normative).
Start with a prescribed vision of the future
and work backwards to “visualize” the future
– back-casting technique.
Which type of scenarios to choose? Usually a “cocktail” of different types!
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Example 1: COOL Climate OptiOns for the Longterm, The Netherlands
Combined Qualitative-Quantitative and Anticipatory
(normative) scenarios
Two-year foresight exercise with the goal of:
“Developing recommendations for drastic (80%) Green House Gas (GHG)
emission reductions by 2050 compared to 1990 levels”.
Time-horizon: 2050
Baseline year: 1990
• Discussed possibility of emission reductions in 4 sectors: (1) Industry &
Energy (2) Housing & Construction (3) Transport & Traffic and (4)
Agriculture & Nutrition.
•
Back-casting Technique: retrospective in that starts from a predetermined desirable final state and explores conditions and strategies
to achieve this state. It can be divided into a number of steps.
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Back-casting Technique to build Scenarios
for Energy Sector
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Governance of Water Resources – the
GOUVERNE Project
FP5 Research Project implemented by a
consortium of partners, including the European
Commission’s Joint Research Centre.
Aims:
• Application of suitable tools, namely scenario
analysis to the policy debate on “The future of
ground water resources in a valley in the South
West of France”.
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GOUVERNE Project
• Involvement of all relevant social actors or
stakeholders in the debate.
• Develop an ICT tool to support decisionmaking and policy-making processes/
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GOUVERNE Methodology in Brief:
• Interviews to identify major stakeholders in study
area and understand nature of issue and conflicting
interests in the French valley.
• Focus groups with stakeholders to identify (1)
Drivers which are likely to affect the future water
system (hydrological system) of the valley.
• Scenario Analysis based on identified drivers of
change: scenarios are narratives describing how
stakeholders see the valley change in 2015
• Ranking of these scenarios. Which is the most
likely or preferred scenario?
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GOUVERNe Project
The outcome of the project:
• Scenarios for the future hydrological system
of the valley
• Stakeholder awareness and involvement in
resource governance.
• An ICT tool for better resource
management.
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“Look-out Panels” – identifying
biomarkers of environmental health.
• Specialised look-out panels set up within public and/or
private sector to identify biomarkers of environmental
health. Panels may form part of the permanent set-up of
organisation or appointed ad-hoc.
• Properties of biomarkers:
• Early-warning signals of stress/disease and environmental
degradation. Described as “surrogate end-points” as they
can identify early symptoms before disease actually
manifests itself e.g. heart disease.
• Huge savings on health care systems.
• Biomarkers must be evaluated and validated (e.g. by
community reference laboratories).
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Examples of Biomarkers:
• Medicine and Health:
– Blood pressure and cholesterol-LDL as surrogate end points of heart
disease.
– Reduced T lymphocyte count and HIV load as surrogate end point of
AIDS.
– Genetic fingerprinting
• Environment:
• Changes in DNA structure as a result of exposure to organic
pollutants (PCBs)
• Accumulation of deposits in cells of molluscs as a result of
heavy metal contamination
• Reproductive sterility
• Embryonic deformities in echinoderms such as sea urchin.
• Eutrophication – an indicator of nutrient enrichment
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