THE EFFECTS OF CLASS SIZE ON
STUDENT SUCCESS AS DETERMINED BY
COURSE COMPLETION AND COURSE
PASS RATE
Dr. Jeff D Borden
http://innovation.saintleo.edu
Best Success Indicator?
http://innovation.saintleo.edu
Grit Score
http://innovation.saintleo.edu
Score each: 0, 1, 2, 3
*I rarely plan ahead. I’m a spur-of-the-moment kind of person.
~I’d be good in a dangerous job because I can make my mind up quickly.
*If something better comes along it’s OK to cancel a longstanding
appointment.
~Seeing an animal injured or in pain doesn’t bother me in the slightest.
*Driving fast, riding rollercoasters, and skydiving, appeal to me.
~It doesn’t matter to me if I have to step on other people to get what I want.
*I’m very persuasive. I have a talent for getting other people to do what I
want.
~Cheating on your partner is OK so long as you don’t get caught.
*I find it easy to keep myself together in situations when others are cracking
under pressure.
~If I am able to con someone, that’s their problem. They deserve it.
http://innovation.saintleo.edu
Are You A Psychopath?
•
•
•
•
•
0-10: Low
11-15: Below average
16-20: Average
21-25: High
26-30: Very high
http://innovation.saintleo.edu
James Fallon
http://innovation.saintleo.edu
The Best Surgeons? CEO’s?
http://innovation.saintleo.edu
Dr. Jeff D Borden
http://innovation.saintleo.edu
Dr. Jeff D Borden
http://innovation.saintleo.edu
The “C’s” of Education
http://innovation.saintleo.edu
Agenda
•DATA
•RESEARCH
•FINDINGS
•CONCLUSIONS
http://innovation.saintleo.edu
1: Data
http://innovation.saintleo.edu
Voltaire: La Bégueule
• “Que le mieux est l'ennemi du bien”
• “Perfect is the enemy of good”
http://innovation.saintleo.edu
Data Must Be Actionable
Avg. Student Activity/Section at Day 10 (hrs)
10
8
6.0
6
5.2
5.6
5.4
4.6
4
3.1
2.2
2
2.4
4.6
2.8
5.3
4.7
4.2
2.7
4.4
4.8
5.2
4.6
Avg.
= 5.0
3.1
2.7
2.3
2.0
1.8
Avg.
= 2.5
1.5
0
ACC
BUS
CIS
ECO
FIN
Dropped Students
HUM
LEG
MAT
MKT
POL
PSY
SOC
Completed Students
14
http://innovation.saintleo.edu
Department Completion Rates: Term Start to Term End
Retention Analysis
100%
IV
I
HRM
90%
MKT
SCI
HIST
OTHER
HUM
MATH
COMP
AVI
80%
ENGL
LAW
BIO
ECON
ACCT
ART
70%
Avg. Section
Completion
Rate = 80%
III
0
BUS
MGMT
II
2,000
4,000
Department Term Start Enrollments
http://innovation.saintleo.edu
Actionable
http://innovation.saintleo.edu
Course Path
http://innovation.saintleo.edu
Data Leads To Better Questions
• How do our completion rates stack up?
• How do you know if students are accessing media?
• How are you using predictive strategies to remediate students?
• How do you measure retention?
• How do you measure participation other than discussion posts?
• Do clicks represent student activity effectively?
• What percentage of minority students complete online
programs?
• What is the optimal class size for online?
http://innovation.saintleo.edu
Problems Are The Same
•
•
•
•
Retention
Enrollments
Career readiness
Teaching / Learning
Quality
• Critical Thinking /
Problem Solving
• Cost
• Collaboration
http://innovation.saintleo.edu
In God We Trust…All Others Bring Data.
• 7 out of 10 people hate surveys.
• The 5th Trident sugarless gum dentist was
actually an orthodontist?
• Why So Little Data?
http://innovation.saintleo.edu
http://innovation.saintleo.edu
Kimball University Newsletter (2010)
• “Yes, most businesses in a given industry perform common functions.
But if everyone's approach to these business functions was so similar,
then why are there so many alternative organizations? Don't most
organizations do things slightly differently than their industry peers?
And if so, how do these "competitive advantages" get addressed by a
pre-defined industry model?”
• “We’re taking a “wait and see” approach. We want to make sure we
measure all of the right things before starting down the data path…”
• “Perfect is the enemy of good”
http://innovation.saintleo.edu
Measures: Easy or Important?
http://innovation.saintleo.edu
David Ogilvy
“People don’t think how they feel. They don’t
say what they think and they don’t do what they
say.”
http://innovation.saintleo.edu
Actions vs Words
http://innovation.saintleo.edu
Prospect Theory: Kahneman & Tversky
• “Nobody is good at
intuitive statistics,
including statisticians.”
• “Steve”
– Farmer
– Librarian
http://innovation.saintleo.edu
Cup of Cereal
Consumed:
Reported v Actual:
• 1 cup of cereal w/half
• 625 calories
cup of milk: 210 calories • 1355 calories
• 1 cup of orange juice:
125 calories
• 3 mini donuts: 290
calories
http://innovation.saintleo.edu
http://innovation.saintleo.edu
Pamela Wright
http://innovation.saintleo.edu
Pamela Wright
http://innovation.saintleo.edu
Academically Adrift (Arum / Roksa, 2011)
• “….but for a large proportion of
them [students] the gains in
critical thinking, complex
reasoning, and written
communication are either
exceedingly small or empirically
nonexistent.”
• 45% : 2 Years
• 36% : At Graduation
http://innovation.saintleo.edu
2: Research
http://innovation.saintleo.edu
Research Study Question
• Does class size effect student success specific to course
completion and final course pass rate in online classes?
http://innovation.saintleo.edu
Questions Not Asked or Answered Here…
• Is eLearning effective?
• Demographics vs Success?
• Other measure(s) for student achievement?
– aptitude and readiness, learning styles and processes, teaching styles
and mind-leading skills, etc
• Remediation for ill-prepared and educationally disadvantaged
students?
• Student motivation / Effort?
• Grade inflation?
• AND…
http://innovation.saintleo.edu
Class Size
• Maimonides: Class Size of 40 = Success (~1200)
• Thousands of K-12 articles
• Hundreds of Higher Education studies
• Dozens of online education research pieces…
• WORKLOAD!
http://innovation.saintleo.edu
The Site
• ICCOC
• Fully online enrollments
– Will not include hybrid / supplemental
• 200 level courses
– Not a 200 level study
• 9800+ students in the study
• Pull Data:
– Completion Rates
– Grades
– Class Sizes
http://innovation.saintleo.edu
Backdrop
• Most Studies Were Inconclusive
• Most Studies Were Small
• 2010: ~ Class Size in USA = 17
• Correlation NOT Causal
• Various Tests:
– Basic Measures
– Spearman rho correlation
– Independent T-Test
– ANOVA
– Tukey-B
– Chi-Square
– -STATA
http://innovation.saintleo.edu
Hypothesis? What is this?
http://innovation.saintleo.edu
Hypothesis
4.0
>25
3.0
<15
Grade 2.0
16-24
1.0
.00
Incomplete
Complete
Completion Rate
http://innovation.saintleo.edu
Population Data
• 67,918 Student Enrollments
• 200+ Level Classes
• 617 Classes
• 9,855 Student Enrollments
Term
Cour
se
Year
Code
Level
Start
Mid
End
Begt
omid
Midt
oend
Full
Enr Grad
ollm eA
ent
Grad
eB
Grad
eC
Grad
eD
Grad
eF
Drop
ped
Com
plete
d
Sp20
10
Nutri
tion
2010
BIO
2010X
Soph
29
25
24
0.86
2
.96
.82
24
4
3
2
3
1
24
12
http://innovation.saintleo.edu
Various Data Issues
• 200+ level courses with Freshmen
• Non-make courses
• Courses with larger completion rate than
enrollment rate
– Instructor’s in hospital
– Students “must have” classes
http://innovation.saintleo.edu
Class Size Descriptions
Class Size Descriptor
CS1
CS2
CS3
Number of Students
1-15
16-24
25+
http://innovation.saintleo.edu
200+ Level Student Data
# of Classes
187
303
CS1
CS2
CS3
127
http://innovation.saintleo.edu
3: Findings
http://innovation.saintleo.edu
Descriptive Statistics: Class Size
Variable
CS1
CS2
CS3
Period
Census
Course End
Census
Course End
Census
Course End
Mean
8.3
7.4
20.2
17.1
27.2
23.9
SD
4
4.1
2.8
3.5
1.5
2.6
http://innovation.saintleo.edu
Pass / Fail Rate
CS1
CS2
CS3
Passed
6.99
16.44
22.78
Failed
1.64
3.65
3.38
http://innovation.saintleo.edu
Descriptive Statistics: Pass/Fail & Drop
Completed
Pass (Fail) Rate
Dropout Rate
Course Size
Mean
SD
Mean
SD
CS1
80.08%
24.6%
16.54%
22.71%
81.01%
18.11%
19.29%
19.31%
85.20%
12.91%
14.54%
11.11%
CS2
CS3
http://innovation.saintleo.edu
Summary Snapshot
http://innovation.saintleo.edu
4: Conclusions
http://innovation.saintleo.edu
Conclusions
• Will these findings extrapolate?
– Policy “rule” bending for students
– Transient population
• Do pass rates or completion rates matter to an institution?
– If so, 17 online students seems uninformed.
• Should teaching larger sections use different techniques?
http://innovation.saintleo.edu
Recommendations
• Class size research:
–
–
–
–
–
Institutional differences
Per discipline / program / subject
Instructor workload
Does teaching change with size?
SHOULD teaching change with size?
• Is class size MORE valuable determining success than:
–
–
–
–
GPA
Parental education
Financial status
GRIT
http://innovation.saintleo.edu
Skeuomorph
http://innovation.saintleo.edu
Skeuomorphs
http://innovation.saintleo.edu
Skeuomorph
http://innovation.saintleo.edu
Better Ways
http://innovation.saintleo.edu
SAMR
http://innovation.saintleo.edu
That’s SO 1992…
• What’s the best way to lecture & assess my
(9, 90, 900) students in class?
– Sincerely, 1992
http://innovation.saintleo.edu
Why Do We…
http://innovation.saintleo.edu
That’s SO 2002…
• What’s the best way to lecture & assess my
(9, 90, 900) students in class?
– Sincerely, 1992
• What’s the best way to do what I normally
do in the classroom online?
– Sincerely, 2002
http://innovation.saintleo.edu
Best eLearning: At Worst
http://innovation.saintleo.edu
Best eLearning: At Best
http://innovation.saintleo.edu
That’s SO 2012…
• What’s the best way to lecture & assess my
(9, 90, 900) students in class?
– Sincerely, 1992
• What’s the best way to do what I normally
do in the classroom online?
– Sincerely, 2002
• What’s the best way to learn?
– Sincerely, 2012
http://innovation.saintleo.edu
Minerva University
http://innovation.saintleo.edu
Rethinking:
http://innovation.saintleo.edu
Dealing With Larger Classes
•
•
•
•
•
Teaching Assistants / Team Teaching
Group Evaluation Rubrics
Curriculum Integration
Gaming
Heavy Multimedia
http://innovation.saintleo.edu
http://innovation.saintleo.edu
Thank You!
jborden@jeffpresents.com
• @bordenj
• http://jeffpresents.com
• http://innovation.saintleo.edu
• http://insights.wired.com/profile/DrJeffBorden#axzz2UZ4cxP1R
• http://pearsonlearningsolutions.com/blog/?s=jeff+borden&x=1066&y=-133 /
• To see the Short-Film “School of Thought” that Jeff wrote and
produced: http://researchnetwork.pearson.com/sot
http://innovation.saintleo.edu