Analytic Tools in the Policy Process

Analytic Tools in the Policy Process:
What Works and What Does not?
ESD 11 December 6, 2000
 Available Tools for
– Economic
– Political
– Business / Finance
– Negotiation
– Sociometric
Policy Analysis
 Cases and
– Health
– Harbors
– Water
– Telecom
 Discussion
of the ESD 11 Final Exam
Economic and Financial Tools
 Assumption:
Homo economicus
 Cost/Benefit Analysis
 “Social
Cost/Benefit” Analysis
 Trade-off Analysis
 Revenue Analysis
 Survey Analysis
 Case
Study Analysis
Dominated Alternatives
Attribute 1
Pareto Superior Alternatives
Attribute 2
Getting to Yes:The Principles
 Separate
the people from the Problem
– Tomorrow is another day…
 Focus
on the Interests not the Positions
– What is important to the negotiators?
– What are the attributes of a good outcome?
 Invent
Options for mutual gain
– Expand the alternative set
– “What are we missing?…”
 Insist
on using objective criteria
– How can we measure how we are doing?
Political Paradigms
 Analyses
that ASSUME rational behavior
Again Homo economicus ?
Bounded Rationality ?
Satisficing behavior?
Conflict avoidance behavior?
 The
Simple Paradigm
– Structural Functional Analysis
The Cases – What did you use?
 Transplant
 HarborCo
 Water
In California Case?
 African
 Other
Courses this semester?
Two Questions
 What
policy analytic tools did you use that you
“brought with you?”
 What
policy analytic tools would you have wished
to use that you did not, yourself or a team member,
have sufficient knowledge to use?
Policy Analysis: “Truths”
 Question
/ challenge the assumptions
 THE forecast is always wrong
 Communication is the key: Make it more
understandable not more complicated
 Measure the important variables not the variables
that are easy to measure
Lee, Ball and Tabors on Energy
Technology, not resource
depletion, is the driving force
for substition
The consequences of poor
strategies can be enormous
and unpredictable
Most forecasts are wrong,
therefore robustness is a critical
planning requirement
The task of analysts is to lay out
the options, not to tell the
decision makers what to do
Measure the right thing
Do not confuse the systems
approach with systems
Understand technologies and
manage them accordingly
Quality pays and cleaner is
Don’t overemphasize science
and de-emphasize engineering
Government Sponsored R&D
projects in areas where the
government is not the user of
the results are usually
The ESD 11 Final Examination
 When:
Friday December 15
 From: 9am to 4pm
 Where: Your choice (but alone)
 How: In and out on Email to BOTH
[email protected] and [email protected]
 Format:
– General Problem: A policy analysis based on the policy process
paradigm that we have discussed in class (and will discuss again
on Friday).
– Specific Problem: 5 to 7 stated issues around which your
response can be structured.
ESD 11 Final: Example
 For
your home country, or for a nation that you
have studied, provide a policy analysis of one of the
following issues. Focus your response on a concise
statement of the background to the problem and
then upon the “cast of characters” and the
individual positions and the logic of those positions.
Conclude with a discussion of a tactical strategy for
implementation of the policy discussed.
 Example of a proposed policy
– Absorption of CO2 by forests is a desired means of reducing
Global Warming.