Analytic Tools in the Policy Process: What Works and What Does not? ESD 11 December 6, 2000 Outline Available Tools for – Economic – Political – Business / Finance – Negotiation – Sociometric Policy Analysis Cases and – Health – Harbors – Water – Telecom applications Discussion of the ESD 11 Final Exam Economic and Financial Tools Assumption: Homo economicus Cost/Benefit Analysis “Social Cost/Benefit” Analysis Trade-off Analysis Revenue Analysis – IRR Sociometric Survey Analysis Case . . Study Analysis Pareto Dominated Alternatives Attribute 1 Pareto Superior Alternatives Attribute 2 Getting to Yes:The Principles Separate the people from the Problem – Tomorrow is another day… Focus on the Interests not the Positions – What is important to the negotiators? – What are the attributes of a good outcome? Invent Options for mutual gain – Expand the alternative set – “What are we missing?…” Insist on using objective criteria – How can we measure how we are doing? Political Paradigms Analyses – – – – that ASSUME rational behavior Again Homo economicus ? Bounded Rationality ? Satisficing behavior? Conflict avoidance behavior? The Simple Paradigm – Structural Functional Analysis The Cases – What did you use? Transplant HarborCo Water Case? In California Case? African Other Case? Telecom? Courses this semester? Two Questions What policy analytic tools did you use that you “brought with you?” What policy analytic tools would you have wished to use that you did not, yourself or a team member, have sufficient knowledge to use? Policy Analysis: “Truths” Question / challenge the assumptions THE forecast is always wrong Communication is the key: Make it more understandable not more complicated Measure the important variables not the variables that are easy to measure Lee, Ball and Tabors on Energy Policy Technology, not resource depletion, is the driving force for substition The consequences of poor strategies can be enormous and unpredictable Most forecasts are wrong, therefore robustness is a critical planning requirement The task of analysts is to lay out the options, not to tell the decision makers what to do Measure the right thing Do not confuse the systems approach with systems analysis Understand technologies and manage them accordingly Quality pays and cleaner is cheaper Don’t overemphasize science and de-emphasize engineering Government Sponsored R&D projects in areas where the government is not the user of the results are usually ineffective The ESD 11 Final Examination When: Friday December 15 From: 9am to 4pm Where: Your choice (but alone) How: In and out on Email to BOTH [email protected] and [email protected] Format: – General Problem: A policy analysis based on the policy process paradigm that we have discussed in class (and will discuss again on Friday). – Specific Problem: 5 to 7 stated issues around which your response can be structured. ESD 11 Final: Example For your home country, or for a nation that you have studied, provide a policy analysis of one of the following issues. Focus your response on a concise statement of the background to the problem and then upon the “cast of characters” and the individual positions and the logic of those positions. Conclude with a discussion of a tactical strategy for implementation of the policy discussed. Example of a proposed policy – Absorption of CO2 by forests is a desired means of reducing Global Warming.