Western Cape
Government
Agriculture
THE WESTERN CAPE AND AFRICA IN
NUMBERS: AN AGRIBUSINESS OPPORTUNITY
PERSPECTIVE
Dr Dirk Troskie
Director: Business Planning & Strategy
14 June 2012
Reality check: World
Reality check: Africa
Some features of Africa
Ranking
What others say
Conclusion
REALITY CHECK: WORLD
1.8
9
1.6
8
1.4
7
1.2
6
1
5
0.8
4
0.6
3
World
Less Developed YearMore Developed
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
0
1975
0
1970
0.2
1965
1
1960
0.4
1955
2
Regional Population (Billion)
10
1950
World Population (Billion)
GLOBAL POPULATION GROWTH: 1950 - 2050
Least Developed
Source: UN Population (2008)
GDP: $ Billion at PPP
RANKING
1991
COUNTRY
2008
GDP ($ Bill.)
COUNTRY
GDP ($ Bill.)
14 369
1
United States
5 943
United States (1)
2
Japan
2 485
China (6)
7 927
3
Germany
1 588
Japan (2)
4 358
4
France
1 051
India (9)
3 298
5
Italy
1 049
Germany (3)
2 910
6
China
1 029
Russian Fed. (-)
2 263
7
UK
954
UK
2 186
8
Brazil
818
France (4)
2 122
9
India
763
Brazil (8)
1 985
10
Mexico
608
Italy (5)
1 872
11
Spain
550
Mexico (10)
1 545
12
Canada
549
Spain (11)
1 434
13
Korea
415
Korea
1 344
14
Turkey
337
Canada (12)
1 300
15
Indonesia
306
Turkey (14)
992
16
Australia
305
Indonesia (15)
910
17
Netherlands
280
Australia (16)
831
18
Poland
219
Netherlands (17)
675
19
South Africa
204
Poland (18)
659
Source: OECD (2010)
PER CAPITA GDP GROWTH: % at PPP
1980 - 2008
RANKING
COUNTRY
1999 - 2008
% CHANGE
1
China
2 278
2
Korea
3
COUNTRY
% CHANGE
China
176
907
Estonia
136
India
598
Slovak Republic
113
4
Ireland
569
India
103
5
Luxembourg
552
Norway
97
6
Norway
514
Indonesia
77
7
Indonesia
447
Korea
76
8
Turkey
384
Hungary
75
9
Spain
363
Luxembourg
73
10
Portugal
348
Poland
73
11
UK
325
Czech Rep.
72
12
Netherlands
316
Turkey
71
13
Finland
297
Greece
70
14
United States
288
Slovenia
68
15
OECD total
288
Chile
65
16
Japan
283
South Africa
62
17
Australia 1
280
Ireland
60
18
Denmark
269
Spain
59
19
Germany
262
Mexico
57
20
Austria
259
Brazil
Source:53OECD (2010)
WORLD TRADE
Source: ITC (2012)
EXPORT GROWTH: Wine (1991 - 2010)
450
60
400
50
350
40
Volume (mil litres)
300
250
%
30
200
150
20
100
10
50
Export volume
Year
Export as % of harvest
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
0
1991
0
Source: SAWIS (2011)
PROVINCIAL STRATEGIC OBJECITVE 11
Increasing opportunities for growth and development
in rural areas
Agricultural
production
Develop and
implement a
strategy that
will support
10%
agricultural
growth over 10
years.
Market
access
Support the
Agricultural
Sector to at
least maintain
its export
position for the
next 5 years by
growing its
value added
from R14,014
billion in 2009.
Research
and
Technology
Rural
development
Extension
Collaborate
with farmers
and industries
to execute
research and
to develop
cutting edge
technologies
where
agricultural
production
can increase
by 10% over 10
years.
Create an
enabling
environment
for business in
rural areas and
the
development
of selected
rural nodes to
facilitate their
socioeconomic
growth
towards a
sustainable
future.
Ensure that at
least 60% of all
agricultural
land reform
projects in the
Province
succeed over
the next 5
years..
SO WHAT?
• Structural change in demand for agricultural
products.
• Population
• Ability to purchase
• “Financial crisis” should actually be no
surprise.
• World trade patterns are changing.
• Trade is important for the Western Cape
Agricultural Sector.
• Should we follow the herd?
REALITY CHECK: AFRICA
OUR WORLDVIEW?
Source: NASA (2000)
SSA ECONOMIC GROWTH
1,800
3,000
2,900
2,800
2,700
1,400
2,600
1,200
2,500
2,400
1,000
2,300
GDP/Cap (I$)
GDP ($ Billion)
1,600
2,200
800
2,100
600
2,000
2009
2010
2011
2012
GDP ($)
2013
2014
2015
2016
GDP / Capita
Source: WEF of IMF (2011)
Eritrea
Ghana
Kenya
São Tomé & P
Zambia
Angola
Mozambique
Nigeria
Sierra Leone
Cape Verde
Niger
Zimbabwe
Burundi
Ethopia
Liberia
Madagascar
DRC
Lesotho
Rwanda
Djibouti
Egypt
Tanzania
CAR
Mali
Malawi
Botswana
Bukina Faso
Eq Guinea
Mauritius
Sudan
Senegal
Tunisia
Congo
Benin
Cameroon
Côte d'Ivoire
Namibia
Gambia
Mauritania
G-Bissau
Togo
Chad
Comoros
Algeria
Gabon
Seychelles
South Africa
Guinea
Morocco
Uganda
Swaziland
Libya
Somalia
GDP GROWTH (2011 – 16)
(Economy % bigger by 2016)
140%
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Source: Database of WEF/IMF (2011)
Libya
Eq Guinea
Seychelles
Gabon
Botswana
Mauritius
South Africa
Namibia
Angola
Algeria
Tunisia
Morocco
Cape Verde
Swaziland
Congo
Egypt
Sudan
Nigeria
Djibouti
Ghana
Zambia
Mauritania
São Tomé & P
Cameroon
Côte d'Ivoire
Senegal
Lesotho
Kenya
Comoros
Chad
Mali
Benin
Gambia
Bukina Faso
Zimbabwe
Rwanda
Tanzania
G-Bissau
Uganda
Mozambique
Togo
Guinea
CAR
Eritrea
Madagascar
Niger
Ethopia
Sierra Leone
Malawi
Liberia
DRC
Burundi
Somalia
GDP / CAP (2011) ($)
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
Source: Database of WEF/IMF (2011)
Nigeria
Egypt
South Africa
Ethopia
Sudan
Morocco
Ghana
Uganda
Algeria
Tanzania
Côte d'Ivoire
Kenya
DRC
Niger
Cameroon
Tunisia
Mali
Malawi
Madagascar
Angola
Bukina Faso
Mozambique
Rwanda
Guinea
Benin
Senegal
Somalia
Zimbabwe
Chad
Zambia
Libya
CAR
Burundi
Togo
Sierra Leone
Mauritania
Namibia
Liberia
Congo
Gabon
G-Bissau
Swaziland
Eritrea
Mauritius
Botswana
Gambia
Lesotho
Djibouti
Comoros
Cape Verde
Eq Guinea
São Tomé & P
Seychelles
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION (2009)
(2000 $ Million)
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
Source: FAOSTAT (2011)
Nigeria
Egypt
South Africa
Sudan
Ethopia
DRC
Uganda
Morocco
Kenya
Côte d'Ivoire
Tanzania
Algeria
Ghana
Tunisia
Madagascar
Cameroon
Rwanda
Mali
Zimbabwe
Bukina Faso
Niger
Somalia
Guinea
Benin
Malawi
Chad
Burundi
Senegal
Angola
Mozambique
Libya
Zambia
CAR
Togo
Sierra Leone
Namibia
Mauritania
Swaziland
Gabon
Mauritius
Botswana
Congo
Liberia
G-Bissau
Lesotho
Gambia
Comoros
Djibouti
Eq Guinea
Cape Verde
São Tomé & P
Seychelles
Eritrea
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION (1992)
(2000 $ Million)
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
Source: FAOSTAT (2011)
Angola
Niger
Malawi
Ghana
Mozambique
Bukina Faso
Egypt
Liberia
Nigeria
Sudan
Benin
Mali
Algeria
Ethopia
Guinea
Sierra Leone
São Tomé & P
Tanzania
G-Bissau
Chad
Cape Verde
Zambia
CAR
Gambia
Cameroon
Congo
Djibouti
Côte d'Ivoire
Kenya
Rwanda
Morocco
Togo
Eritrea
Tunisia
Senegal
Uganda
Mauritania
Libya
South Africa
Comoros
Somalia
Madagascar
Gabon
Mauritius
Swaziland
Botswana
Lesotho
Burundi
Eq Guinea
Namibia
Zimbabwe
DRC
Seychelles
PRODUCTION GROWTH (1990/94 – 2005/09)
140%
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%
-40%
Source: Calculated from FAOSTAT (2011)
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
$ Billion (1999-2001 Values)
160
135
140
130
120
125
100
120
80
115
60
110
105
40
100
20
95
0
90
Value of Production
Index (1999-2001 = 100)
AFRICAN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION
Per Capita Index
Source: FAOSTAT (2011)
EFFICIENCY GAINS IN FOOD PRODUCTION
Source: Alain de Janvry (2009)
SO WHAT?
• We need to challenge our traditional world
view
• Some economies in Africa will double in
size during the next 5 years.
• Africa has some individuals with significant
purchasing power.
• Do not underestimate Africa’s agricultural
production
• Our agricultural technology may make a
difference
SOME FEATURES OF AFRICA
Mauritius
Botswana
Cape Verde
Namibia
South Africa
Seychelles
Ghana
Tunisia
Lesotho
Benin
Senegal
Morocco
Tanzania
Mozambique
Zambia
Mali
São Tomé & P
Madagascar
Malawi
Bukina Faso
Rwanda
Gambia
Swaziland
Egypt
Uganda
Gabon
Djibouti
Kenya
Niger
Algeria
Sierra Leone
Cameroon
Mauritania
Togo
Ethopia
Liberia
Angola
G-Bissau
Nigeria
Burundi
Comoros
Congo
Eq Guinea
CAR
Côte d'Ivoire
Eritrea
Guinea
Chad
Sudan
Zimbabwe
DRC
Somalia
Libya
INDEX: GOVERNANCE (Index: -2,5 – 2,5)
1
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
-1.5
-2
-2.5
Source: IFAD (2011)
South Africa
Senegal
Madagascar
Tunisia
Ghana
Burundi
Benin
Nigeria
Côte d'Ivoire
Uganda
Morocco
Djibouti
Mauritius
Niger
DRC
Egypt
Mauritania
São Tomé & P
Libya
Gambia
Kenya
Malawi
Guinea
Cameroon
Gabon
Botswana
Algeria
Mozambique
Mali
Chad
Tanzania
Lesotho
Liberia
Bukina Faso
Zimbabwe
Zambia
Togo
Sudan
Ethopia
Comoros
Namibia
Angola
Rwanda
Congo
Sierra Leone
G-Bissau
Somalia
Eritrea
Seychelles
Swaziland
Cape Verde
CAR
Eq Guinea
INFRASTRUCTURE (2009) (Index 1 – 5)
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
Source: World Development Indicators (2011)
South Africa
Benin
Tunisia
Sudan
Cameroon
Bukina Faso
Egypt
Namibia
Côte d'Ivoire
Mauritius
Guinea
Malawi
Algeria
Mozambique
Mali
Gabon
CAR
Chad
Tanzania
G-Bissau
Swaziland
Uganda
Togo
Rwanda
Morocco
Ghana
Comoros
Angola
Gambia
Kenya
Senegal
Zambia
Cape Verde
Madagascar
Niger
Seychelles
Zimbabwe
Djibouti
DRC
Lesotho
Botswana
Mauritania
Burundi
Eq Guinea
Ethopia
Eritrea
Somalia
São Tomé & P
Sierra Leone
Liberia
Congo
Nigeria
Libya
AGRICULTURAL LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY:
(% Growth 1998 – 2008)
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
Source: IFAD (2011))
Zimbabwe
Seychelles
Swaziland
Botswana
Namibia
Madagascar
Gambia
Morocco
Ghana
Mauritius
Cape Verde
Comoros
Guinea
Côte d'Ivoire
G-Bissau
DRC
São Tomé & P
Bukina Faso
Senegal
Gabon
Kenya
Tunisia
Mauritania
Egypt
Niger
Algeria
Nigeria
Angola
Burundi
Sierra Leone
South Africa
Tanzania
Uganda
Cameroon
CAR
Togo
Sudan
Mozambique
Mali
Benin
Chad
Lesotho
Rwanda
Djibouti
Malawi
Eq Guinea
Eritrea
Ethopia
Liberia
Libya
Congo
Somalia
Zambia
AGRICULTURAL IMPORT GROWTH (1987 - 2006)
(%)
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
-50
Source: Calculated from FAOSTAT (2011)
Congo
Gabon
Liberia
Eq Guinea
CAR
Sierra Leone
Guinea
DRC
G-Bissau
Madagascar
Cameroon
São Tomé & P
Mozambique
Zambia
Namibia
Angola
Mali
Botswana
Gambia
Côte d'Ivoire
Chad
Swaziland
Mauritania
Senegal
Benin
Zimbabwe
Niger
Ghana
Togo
Tanzania
Mauritius
Uganda
Nigeria
Somalia
Sudan
Burundi
Ethopia
Lesotho
Comoros
Eritrea
Malawi
South Africa
Rwanda
Morocco
Bukina Faso
Kenya
Egypt
Cape Verde
Tunisia
Djibouti
Algeria
Libya
Seychelles
RENEWABLE WATER / CAPITA (m3/Cap/year)
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
Source: AQUASTAT (2011)
Congo
CAR
Eq Guinea
DRC
Liberia
Gabon
Angola
Uganda
Sierra Leone
Benin
Gambia
Mozambique
Cameroon
Lesotho
Comoros
Chad
G-Bissau
Togo
Guinea
Botswana
Côte d'Ivoire
Djibouti
Rwanda
Namibia
Ghana
Zambia
Burundi
Nigeria
Madagascar
Ethopia
Malawi
Tanzania
Senegal
Bukina Faso
Mali
Niger
Cape Verde
Kenya
Eritrea
Mauritania
South Africa
Zimbabwe
Mauritius
Swaziland
Somalia
Algeria
Morocco
Tunisia
Sudan
Egypt
Libya
São Tomé & P
Seychelles
PRESSURE ON RENEWABLE WATER
(% of renewable water used by Agriculture)
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Source: AQUASTAT (2011)
SO WHAT?
• Doing business in Africa will present
challenges:
• Governance
• Infrastructure
• Africa presents immense agricultural
potential
• Productivity gains
• Land
• Water
RANKING COUNTRIES
CATEGORIES
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Governance
Economy
Agriculture’s role in economy
Population
Trade
Agricultural Production
Agricultural Land
Water
Ghana
Tunisia
Morocco
South Africa
Algeria
Egypt
Angola
Mali
Mauritius
Côte d'Ivoire
Tanzania
Guinea
Mozambique
Nigeria
Benin
Namibia
Niger
Cameroon
Gabon
Kenya
Senegal
Madagascar
Bukina Faso
Sudan
Zimbabwe
Botswana
Zambia
Uganda
Ethopia
Rwanda
CAR
Swaziland
São Tomé & P
Cape Verde
Gambia
Malawi
DRC
Sierra Leone
Djibouti
Togo
Seychelles
Chad
Liberia
G-Bissau
Eq Guinea
Burundi
Comoros
Lesotho
Mauritania
Congo
Eritrea
Somalia
Libya
RANKING
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Source: Own calculations
SO WHAT?
• Africa is a continent of 52 countries – choose
carefully
WHAT OTHERS SAY
SOUTH AFRICAN RETAILERS
REGION
Southern Africa
East Africa
North Africa
West Africa
Central Africa
COUNTRY
Angola
Botswana
Lesotho
Madagascar
Malawi
Mozambique
Namibia
Swaziland
Zimbabwe
Zambia
Mauritius
Reunion
Tanzania
Kenya
Uganda
Tunisia
Morocco
Algeria
Ghana
Mali
Cot d’Ivoure
Nigeria
Cameroon
Gabon
CAR
DRC
SHOPRITE / CHECKERS
FRUIT &
VEG
GAME
Shoprite
3
5
4
8
2
5
14
6
1
19
3
U-Save
5
?
?
?
3
?
?
2
?
?
?
3
?
2
?
1
1
1
1+1
3
?
1
+1
2+1
1
3
1
2
1
2
1+1
2+1
+1
1+1
1+1
1
PICK & PAY
SPAR
?
?
+?
23
1
3
?
?
25% 464
?
2
2
29
7
35% 68
THE REALITIES OF AFRICA
ADAPTING TO CHANGING WORLD ORDER:
Exports of Apples & Pears
2001
Benin
2%
2010
Other
17%
Singapor
2%
UK
23%
Other
27%
UK
33%
HK
2%
Angola
3%
USA
3%
Zim
2%
Germany
4%
France
4%
Malaysia
5%
Belgium
7%
Netherl
18%
Netherl
15%
France
2%
UAE
5%
Angola
2%
Germany
Benin
3% Singapor 4%
3%
Malaysia
9%
Russia
5%
Source: ITC Database (2011)
SO WHAT?
• Africa presents new opportunities.
CONCLUSION
CONCLUSION
• “The world it is a-changing”
• “Look north young man”
• “Afrika is nie vir sissies nie”
Thank you
Dankie
Enkosi
Dr Dirk Troskie
Tel: (021) 808 5190
Mobile: 082 6586018
E-mail: dirkt@elsenburg.com
SOME NATIONAL INITIATIVES
REGION
Southern
Africa
East Africa
North Africa
West Africa
Central Africa
Others
COUNTRY
Angola
Mozambique
Namibia
Zimbabwe?
Mauritius
Tanzania
Kenya
Tunisia
Morocco
Algeria
Ghana
Mali
Cot d’Ivoure
Nigeria (?)
Cameroon
Gabon
CAR
DRC (?)
Botswana
Egypt
Ethiopia
Sudan
Uganda
Malawi
Zambia
DAFF Reports
SPEAR
X
JADAFA / BFAP
Old
New
X
X
X
BFAP
Baseline
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
OTHER PROVINCIAL DEPARTMENTS
REGION
Southern Africa
East Africa
North Africa
West Africa
Central Africa
Others
COUNTRY
Angola
Mozambique
Namibia
Zimbabwe (?)
Mauritius
Tanzania
Kenya
Tunisia
Morocco
Algeria
Ghana
Mali
Cot d’Ivoure
Nigeria (?)
Cameroon
Gabon
CAR
DRC (?)
Senegal
WESGRO
DEDAT
Report
West Africa axis
Air access
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
TOP THREE IN EACH REGION
• Southern Africa
• South Africa
• Angola
• Mozambique
• Namibia
• Zimbabwe (?)
• East Africa
• Mauritius
• Tanzania
• Kenya
TOP THREE IN EACH REGION
• North Africa
• Tunisia
• Morocco
• Algeria
• West Africa
• Ghana
• Mali
• Cote d’Ivoure
• Nigeria (?)
TOP THREE IN EACH REGION
• Central Africa
• Cameroon
• Gabon
• Central African Republic
• DRC (?)
Sierra Leone
Angola
Niger
Djibouti
Algeria
Morocco
Ghana
Mali
Ethopia
Guinea
Egypt
Tanzania
Tunisia
Malawi
Zambia
Rwanda
Nigeria
Cape Verde
South Africa
Kenya
Bukina Faso
Congo
Botswana
G-Bissau
Swaziland
CAR
Sudan
Mozambique
São Tomé & P
Mauritius
Cameroon
Côte d'Ivoire
Comoros
Mauritania
Eritrea
Libya
Madagascar
Togo
Senegal
Burundi
Chad
Gabon
Namibia
Liberia
Somalia
Benin
Uganda
DRC
Gambia
Lesotho
Eq Guinea
Zimbabwe
Seychelles
AGRIC PRODUCTION PER CAPITA INDEX (2007 –
2009)
(1999 – 2001 = 100)
150
130
110
90
70
50
Source: Calculated from FAOSTAT (2011)
Ethopia
Egypt
Burundi
Niger
Togo
Algeria
G-Bissau
Tanzania
Liberia
Benin
Mali
Malawi
Mauritania
Senegal
Guinea
Bukina Faso
Chad
Djibouti
Tunisia
Morocco
Gabon
Côte d'Ivoire
Sierra Leone
Ghana
Nigeria
CAR
Uganda
DRC
Cameroon
Mozambique
Madagascar
Gambia
Congo
Kenya
Zimbabwe
Cape Verde
São Tomé & P
Swaziland
Zambia
Lesotho
Rwanda
South Africa
Angola
Botswana
Comoros
Seychelles
Namibia
Eq Guinea
Eritrea
Libya
Mauritius
Somalia
Sudan
INEQUALITY: Gini Index (Latest year)
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Source: World Development Indicators