Comments on “The Promise and Performance of the Federal Reserve as a Lender of Last Resort: 1914-1933” Ellis W. Tallman Oberlin College The Federal Reserve System as Lender of Last Resort • Remains an important and relevant question – Important for future progress – what went wrong? • Federal Reserve Act – – Aimed to address known flaws in the National Banking System (1863-1913) – Paper shows that the Federal Reserve Act solved a lot of those problems • But it was not enough – 1929-33 sufficient proof Alternative Explanations • Flaws in the structure of the Fed System – Too decentralized, unable to coordinate policy • Required leadership that system lacked • Devotion to gold standard – Prevented expansionary policy during depression • Fed adherence to flawed policy framework – Relied on nominal interest rate and level of discount window borrowing as policy indicator Why was the Fed unsuccessful as Lender of Last Resort? • Thesis in this paper: – The US banking structure was the core problem • Federal Reserve Act – – Unable to solve the flaws in the US banking system – Unable to mimic the money market conditions of the European Central banks • Intuitively plausible explanation – Challenge: to bring compelling evidence to the issue Proposed thesis: How does it add to our understanding? • Flawed banking system – This idea – not extensively developed in the paper • The flawed design of the Fed – Comments will focus on this idea • Three key flaws of the Federal Reserve Act – 1) Reluctance of Fed members to borrow at discount window – 2) Limited membership of the Fed System – 3) Restricted eligibility of discount window collateral Reluctance to Borrow • Was reluctance a result of “direct pressure”? – 1928-29 – Federal Reserve was exceedingly concerned about extensive credit in call loan market • Aversion to call loan market – was common among the monetary reformers circa 1910 – Huge volume of discount window borrowing 1919-20 • Something must have changed • Aversion to borrowing may have been induced rather than implicit in the Federal Reserve Act Limited Fed Membership • Non-member banks suffered higher failure rates than member banks, 1929-33 – Unable to access lender of last resort liquidity • Board had Power to allow lending to nonmembers – Was allowed in 1921 but then rescinded in 1923 • Similar, but restricted, ability to lend to member banks to lend to non-member banks allowed during WW I – Federal Reserve Act had the capability to overcome this limitation Restricted Eligibility of Discount Window Collateral • I agree completely with this idea – The restrictions on collateral for discounting • Limited pool of eligible collateral for rediscounting – Consistent with “flawed policy framework” • Can this issue help differentiate the paper’s thesis from alternative explanations? Extend Analysis -- Evidence • Compare components of collateral at Fed DW – Collateral for discount window loans during 1919-20? • Was the composition so different from 1929-33? • Banker’s acceptance market never grew to the extent that Paul Warburg had hoped – Was that sufficient for failure? – Was there any alternative asset class that could have been a satisfactory substitute? • For example, expanded purchase, rediscount of gov’t debt Suggestions • Current version focuses on 1929-1933 – More analysis on the earlier period for comparison – Examine closely “lender of last resort” experiences • Bring more evidence to bear on thesis – Did policy change 1923-28 relative to policies during WW I and contraction that followed? – Quantitative comparison of liquidity provision across time • What might have worked? Was it all about “acceptable” collateral? • Collateral restrictions arose from aversion to the call loan market – No way to rediscount call loans – Hope was that banker’s acceptance market would replace it • This paper rightly emphasizes the issue – Warburg - discount market for banker’s acceptances to replace call loan market as secondary liquidity source (also in Meltzer 2003, pages 254-55) • Question: why did the call loan market remain so important after the Federal Reserve Act? Holy Grail of Monetary Reformers • Break the link between capital market and money market (payment system) in US – Underlies significance of reducing role of call loan market investments in NYC bank assets • Glass-Steagall Act – Separated investment from commercial banking – Benston 1990, others – no evidence that investment banking had large negative effect on bank problems – Then why separate investment, commercial banks? • Perhaps to try again to break the link above? Culprit: Daily Settlement of stock exchange transactions • Paul Warburg and the call loan market – Call money market arose from demand for daily settlement at New York Stock Exchange – Combination of overnight settlement along with the lack of a central bank and ‘modern paper’ • Put the US financial market at risk for recurrent crises • Warburg wanted credit market more akin to Europe, where term settlement existed – He was aware of the flaws in the US system • President of the American Acceptance Council – Would likely agree that banking system must change Summary • Challenge of paper – – Find evidence on collateral composition – Compare 1929-33 with earlier periods when restrictions were lifted, or were not binding • Why was the call loan market so active? – Much attention from Fed 1928-29 – Unusual policies to thwart lending R Figure 1: Federal Reserve Credit, Monthly: 1922-1929 2 1.8 1.6 1.4 Billions of US $ Federal Reserve Credit 1.2 1 0.8 Discount Window Credit 0.6 0.4 0.2 Banker's Acceptances 0 q Figure 1 Extended: Federal Reserve Credit, 1917-1935 4 3.5 Billions of US $ 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 Banker's Acceptances Discount Window Borrowing Government Securities Held Federal Reserve Credit Is the thesis a controversial insight? • An opinion held by various contemporaries of that period – Paul Warburg, J. Laurence Laughlin (often tied with real bills) • Numerous discussions of the flaws in the US banking structure • Warburg 1930, text from 1927 speech – “The country must have a wide and freely used bill market if it is ever to enjoy as perfect a banking system as that to which it is plainly entitled.” p. 459 – “With us, on the other hand, the banker’s acceptance does not occupy a similar position as the principal connecting link between the Reserve System and the commercial banks.” p. 464 • Laughlin 1933, page 19, quoting a letter January 1911 – “….some measure must be provided for enlarging the reserves so as to increase the lending power of a bank in time of panic. … enable the transformation of short time paper or securities into means of payment which would enlarge reserves.” During WW I, Board authorized Reserve Banks to discount for non-members (prohibited in Act) In 1921, Board authorized Reserve Banks to discount for member banks any eligible paper acquired from non-members Authority for this activity was rescinded in 1923 Was this quantitatively important?