Texas Regional Collaboratives for Excellence in Science and Mathematics Teaching
Fourteenth Annual Meeting
Planning Ahead and Looking Back:
Connections Between Early Science
Interest and Science-related Careers
(and a few other things you might find interesting)
Robert H. Tai
University of Virginia
July 9 - 11, 2008

National Research Council
Report raises questions about the United States continuing to maintain its dominance as a world leader in science and technology

National Educational Longitudinal
Study of 1988 - Public Release database
• Data collected from 1988 - 2000, a 12 year span
• Participants’ age ranged from 14 - 26 years old
• Data analysis used a subsample which inlcuded 3359 students

What kind of work do you expect to be doing when you are 30 years old? (MARK THE ANSWER THAT
COMES CLOSEST TO WHAT YOU EXPECT TO BE
YOU THINK YOU MAY BE DOING, DO NOT
CHOOSE MORE THAN ONE ANSWER. INSTEAD,
MAKE ONE BEST GUESS.)
Career Expectations in 8th grade
?  ?
Majors of Earned College Baccalaureate
Degrees

• Compared three outcome groups
– Physical Science/Engineering degrees
– Life Science degrees
– Nonscience degrees
• Two comparisons
– Nonscience to Physical Science/Engineering
– Nonscience to Life Science
• Question Predictor - Career Expectation
• Controls
– Achievement
– Demographic background
– Academic characteristics
– Parental background

Science Expecters
Nonscience Expecters

Science
Expecters
Nonscience
Expecters

Expected
Science-related Career
Did Not Expect
Science-related Career

• Students’ future career aspirations in 8 th grade are a significant predictor of their likelihood to earn baccalaureate degrees in science-related fields based on this analysis
• Academic achievement as measured by a standardized mathematics test is NOT as consistently significant as 8 th grade career aspirations in predicting science –related college degree concentrations in this analysis

What do scientists and graduate students have to say about their experiences?
• National survey study of chemists, physicists, and graduate students
• 30% response rate
• Analysis shows data is representative of chemists and physicists

Q18:145 - When do scientists and graduate students say they first became interested “science”?
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0% student scientist
K-5 th gra de
6-8 th gra de
9-1
0th gra de
11
-1
2th gra de firs t 2
yr
col leg e
When did you first become interested in science?
afte r 2
yr
of
col leg e

For scientists and graduate students in chemistry and physics, when do they form their initial interest in science?
• 70% of scientists and 69% of graduate students reported developing their interest in science in Grades K-8
• 24% of both scientists and graduate students reported developing their interest in science in Grades 9 - 12
• 6% of scientists and 7% of graduate students reported developing their interest in science in College

Q19:145 - When do scientists and graduate students say they first became interested “science”?
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0% student scientist
K-5th
gr ad e
6-
8th
gr ad e
9-
10th
gr ad e
11-
12th
gr ad e firs t 2 yr col leg e
When did you first become interested in chemistry/physics?
afte r 2 yr of
col leg e

For scientists and graduate students in chemistry and physics, when do they form their initial interest in their career field?
• 29% of scientists and 23% of graduate students reported developing their interest in chemistry/physics in Grades K-8
• 52% of scientists and 56% of graduate students reported developing their interest in chemistry/physics in Grades 9-12
• 18% of scientists and 21% of graduate students reported developing their interest in chemistry/physics in College

New Analysis on Mathematics and Science
Advanced Placement Using NELS:88 -
Restricted Access Database
(in collaboration with C. Q. Liu & X. Fan)
• National Educational Longitudinal Study of 1988 -
Restricted Access transcript data
• Respondents tracked beginning in 8 th grade for 12 years,
1988 - 2000
• Focused on College graduates (4-year degrees) - Sciencerelated v. Nonscience/Social Science Degrees
• Advanced Placement program participation - science & mathematics exams

Table 1a: Math/Science AP and non-AP Students in 1992
Baccalaureate
Degree
AP Calculus Exams AP Science Exams
Took Exam Did Not Took Exam Did Not
Physical and
Life Sciencerelated
62 785 82 935
Nonscience/
Social Science
56 1833 57 1476

Table 1b: Math/Science AP and non-AP Students
AP Calculus Exams
Took Exam Did Not
AP Science Exams
Took Exam Did Not
Standardized Test Scores
Base-Year Math
Mean (sd) n
Base Year Science
Mean (sd) n
SAT Composite
Mean (sd) n
54.9 (7.6)
127
24.3 (4.4)
124
1185.0 (152.7)
105
41.6 (10.6)
3952
20.6 (4.5)
3945
943.2 (180.6)
1919
56.2 (6.8)
152
25.9 (3.9)
152
1236.8 (128.9)
129
42.5 (11.2)
3539
20.9 (4.6)
3539
968.9 (197.5)
1752
GPA in College Courses
Introductory Math
Mean (sd) n
Level-1 Science
Mean (sd) n
3.3 (0.8)
127
2.6 (0.9)
3952
3.1 (0.7)
152
2.5 (0.9)
3539

Outcome
• Earned Science-related Baccalaureate (0, 1)
Predictors
• Took AP science exam (0, 1)
• Took AP math exam (0, 1)
• Career Expectation (0, 1)
• Demographic Background
• Achievement Test Scores

Table 2: Logistic Regression Models of AP math and science exams predicting likelihood of earning Science-related Baccalaureate Degree
(N=3863, Model 1 Pseudo R 2 = 0.0450, *** p < 0.001, ** p < 0.01)
Model 1
Included
Odds Ratios for Nested Models
Model 1a Model 1b Model 1c
Included Included Included
Demographic
Background
Achievement Test
Scores
Career Expectation
Included Included Included Included
OR=1.98*** OR=1.96*** OR=1.97*** OR=1.93***
Took AP math exam OR=1.83** OR=1.69**
Took AP science exam
Pseudo
D
R 2 0.007
OR=1.61** OR=1.30
0.003
0.007

Conclusions from new analysis using
NELS:88 - Restricted Access Database
• Career Expectation remains a robust predictor for earning science-related baccalaureate degrees
• Advanced Placement participation in Mathematics and
Science associated with greater likelihood to earn science-related baccalaureate degrees
• AP Mathematics participation subsumes AP Science participation
• Career Expectation and Advanced Placement participation in Mathematics or Science appear to be complementary

Association between High School science and mathematics and college science performance
• Sadler, P. M. &
Tai, R. H.
(2007). The Two High-School Pillars Supporting College
Science. Science.
317(5837), 457 - 458.
• Project FICSS: Factors Influencing College Science Success
• Parallel analyses of three samples of introductory college science classes in biology (n
= 2650), chemistry (n=3561), and physics (n=2263)
• Cross-disciplinary learning of high school biology, chemistry, and physics does not appear to be associated with higher levels of performance in introductory college science courses hs bio hs chem hs phys

Broad Influence of Mathematics
(i.e. Calculus)
• However, mathematics (specifically, high school calculus ) has a significant association across introductory college science courses in all three disciplines, even biology hs calculus

• Promoting Interest in Science is Important
• Early Interest in Science is very important, but continuing to promote interest in high school is also very important
• High test scores Do Not replace Interest
• Advanced Placement in Calculus is not the only answer, but it is helpful
• Focus on steady advancement in K-12 mathematics culminating in Calculus will help promote higher achievement in introductory college science courses.

The national focus on secondary and post-secondary education appears to overlook pre-secondary science education.
Given the apparent importance of the connection between science interest (career expectations) and earned baccalaureate degrees in science-related disciplines, reassessment of the importance of the role of interest in science education appears to be in order.

Thank you.
Robert H. Tai, rhtai@virginia.edu

Interest in
Science
Degrees in
Science
Careers in
Science

Many important questions are left unanswered .
• How do we best generate interest in science early within a child?
• How might an interest in science be translated into a child’s vision of her/his future?
• What kind of evidence do we need to produce to help guide our practices?
• What kind of evidence do we need to produce to convince an open-minded skeptic?

How do we know this interest came from your program and not from somewhere else?
How do we know that without your program, these children wouldn’t have arrived at their decision on their own?
What evidence do we have indicating that AYStype programs are necessary?

The answer to this question will not be based on whether or not your programs inspired children’s interest in science.
The answer to this question will be based on whether or not we can generate convincing evidence .