Political Parties, Elections and Campaigns California Government Chapter 9 Connecting Citizens to Government • In a representative democracy, political institutions link citizens to politics: • • • • Elections Political Parties Through elections, people hold their representative accountable by rewarding representatives they approve of with re-election and punishing representatives they disapprove of by electing their opponents Through parties, group conflicts are managed; diverse interests are aggregated; candidates can be identified with a political agenda & also held accountable for their views and actions Californians are skeptical of linkage institutions • Skeptical of Elections • Majorities believe they make better decisions than government officials • But, only 44% trust their fellow citizens to make good public policy decisions at the ballot box* • Skeptical of Parties • More and more voters are not affiliating with a major political party; more than 20% today “decline to state” a party when registering to vote • 75% believe that state government is run by a few big interests* * Source: Mark Baldassare, et al “Californians and Their Government,” Public Policy Institute of California, Dec. 2010. California: A Weak Party State • • Democrats dominate the legislature and more people are registered as Democrats than any other party However: • • • • Less than a majority are registered Democrats 20% are Independent, and that category is growing 7 of 10 would prefer not be registered with a party* Historically, Progressive “anti-party” elections laws sought to loosen political party control over elections: • • • • • • Direct Democracy Secret Ballots Cross-filing from 1910s – 1950s Direct Primaries Nonpartisan local elections Still, parties organize government * Source: Mark Baldassare, “California’s Post-Partisan Future,” Public Policy Institute of California, January 2008, 2. California Registration February 10, 2013 Party Voters Democratic Republican Americans Elect American Independent Green Libertarian Peace and Freedom Other Decline to state total Eligible to register Registered 43.9% 28.9% 0.0% 2.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% 2.0% 20.9% 100.0% 7,932,373 5,225,675 3,417 476,157 112,973 109,636 61,612 367,483 3,766,457 18,055,783 75.7% 23,857,732 18,055,783 Who can register to vote? Qualifications U.S. Citizen California Resident At least 18 years old on Election Day Not found by a court to be mentally incompetent Not in State Prison or on Parole for a State Felony People may register and vote if they are in county jail or on probation for a county conviction Use this link to register to vote: http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/elections_vr.htm Three Parts of a Party • • How does one define a political party? Parties have different functions, and 3 different dimensions of a party can be identified. 1. Party in the Electorate (PIE): • • Refers to members who share similar beliefs about the role that government should play in their lives Refers to the generalized sentiment a party’s members share about what it means to be a Republican, Democrat, or member of any other party 1. Party in the Electorate (PIE) DEMOCRATS REPUBLICANS Tend to be: ethnically diverse (54% White) low-to-middle income bracket Younger Female: Women outnumber men Tend to be: Most lean liberal or hold liberal views: • Tolerate higher taxes for more government services • Want government to promote equality • Favor greater access to healthcare • Favor same-sex marriage • More responsive to labor unions • Favor looser immigration laws • Favor steps to curb global warming 3 out of 4 are “conservative”*: White (82%) Higher income bracket Older Male: Men slightly outnumber women • • • • • • • • Against taxes Favor strictly limited government Want government to stay out of health care More responsive to business Oppose same-sex marriage Oppose abortion Favor strong anti-immigration laws Oppose steps to curb global warming * Source: Mark Baldassare, “California’s Post-Partisan Future,” Public Policy Institute of California, January 2008. 1. Party in the Electorate (PIE) Individuals often develop attachment to one of the major parties Ethnic support of parties Family tradition School Work, Marriage Whites about equally Democratic or Republican Blacks, Hispanics and Asians more Democratic Gender and Marriage Women more likely than men to support Dems Married individuals more likely than unmarried to support Reps Ethnicity and Voting 2012 Total population 2012 Voted 2012 60% 55% 50% 40% 40% 38% 30% 22% 20% 13% 11% 10% 8% 6% 0% Whites Hispanic Asian Black Ethnicity and Voting (PIE) Ethnic voters had a major impact on the 2012 election field poll 2435 From 1994 to 2012 the state added about 3.5 million voters, of those about 3 million have been ethnic voters (Hispanics, Asians, Blacks) In 2012 a majority of ethnic voters supported Obama and Prop 30 and a majority of white voters opposed Obama and Prop 30 Ethnic voters have been becoming more Democratic, Democratic positions ethnics support: Many Hispanics support path to citizenship Many ethnics support active government (for example Obamacare) Younger ethnic voters tend to be more liberal than older ethnic voters (e.g. support gay marriage, legal pot) Three Parts of a Party 2. Party in Government (PIG) Elected officials help build their party’s “brand name” through lawmaking, speeches and other activities The purpose of parties: organize government in order to achieve their policy aims The party in government is made up of the Governor and other statewide officials, California representatives and US representatives Three Parts of a Party 2. Party in Government (PIG) At the state level the two major parties in California are strongly ideologically polarized Republican elected officials are strongly conservative, they oppose raising taxes and government spending Democratic elected officials are liberal, willing to raise taxes and spend money to support government programs Three Parts of a Party 2. Party in Government (PIG) Elections tend to be uncompetitive (between the parties), based on: Natural “sorting”: people tend to live near others like themselves, so many areas are dominated by one party In the past: “gerrymandering” favored incumbents and the majority party Three Parts of a Party 3. Party Organizations (PO) A party’s organizational bodies, including conventions, and its rules: State Central Committee County Central Committee Regional volunteer clubs Parties help: nominate candidates for election and get them elected Three Parts of a Party 3. Party Organizations (PO) Decentralized Structures Lack of Patronage The state central committees and the county central committees have no power over elected officials, they support the elected officials, they do not direct them The national party has no control over the state party Parties do not have jobs or work contracts to give out to supporters Role in Campaign Finance Parties can be influential in coordinating contributions to party supported candidates Political Parties in California Major Political Parties The Democratic Party of California The Republican Party of California All partisan offices are won by individuals from these two parties Libertarian Very left-wing American Independent Environmentalist Peace and Freedom Usually at least some statewide candidates Green Minor Parties Very right-wing Americans Elect – probably one-time in 2012 These minor parties never win partisan elections A very small number of Libertarians and Greens win non-partisan elections An important features of California’s Political Landscape East-west divide is prominent Coastal regions are heavily liberal to moderate and trend Democratic, and inland counties are much more conservative and strongly Republican Makes drawing competitive districts difficult Citizens, residents, and voters are not the same groups of people Some of these groups (voters) make decisions for the others (non-voters, those ineligible to vote) The Divide: Coastal-Inland (West-East) Elections in California: Recent Reforms Rules often change through voter-approved initiatives Recent electoral changes and consequences: Term limits for state officials: turnover for offices is high; open seats are common; competition is higher for all types of offices Has led to less experienced representatives Has resulted in more frequent special elections to fill seats vacated by ambitious individuals moving up the political ladder Incumbents still elected at high rates Vote by Mail and Early Voting Anyone can request a vote by mail ballot Anyone can request to have permanent Absentee Voter Status If you are permanent absentee then a vote by mail ballot will be mailed to you for each election Many counties (including Los Angeles) allow early voting at designated locations Rise of “vote by mail” (55% in 2012) Elections in California: Recent Reforms New primary election system started 2011: “Top two” primary elections: any voter can vote for a candidate from any party in the June primary (also called an “open primary”) All candidates from all parties appear on the June primary ballot Candidates can choose whether their party is listed on the ballot or not Regardless of vote percentage won, the Top Two candidates in each race advance to the general election in November Goal of the Top Two system is to elect more moderate, less ideological politicians Presidential primaries do not use Top Two, they are closed to voters registered with other parties Elections in California: Recent Reforms District maps for 2012-2020 created by a new Citizens Redistricting Commission Goal of this reform was to take the job of drawing maps away from the state legislature so politicians would no longer draw their own districts Maps for CA Assembly, CA Senate, CA Board of Equalization and US Congress Two reforms aimed at increasing voter participation Initiatives will only be voted on in general elections (or in special elections) Online voter registration Campaigning in California Incumbents are in “permanent campaign” mode Big donors to candidates believe they are buying “access” to the politician Campaign contributions and expenses must be reported to the Fair Political Practices Commission Independent spending (spending by outside groups) is rising, due to US Supreme Court decision Citizens United v. FEC (2010) Campaigning in California Huge sums typically needed to reach residents spread across large areas, or densely populated (and expensive) media markets Elections are competitive and costly; open seats can cost much more than these averages: Average ASSEMBLY race: $750,000 Average SENATE race: $1,000,000 Campaign Management Firms “Air War” Politics in California Campaigns depend less on direct person-toperson contact and more on radio, TV and direct mail advertisements Credible campaigns in California are run by campaign consultants First campaign consultants: Whitaker and Baxter in the 1930’s Husband and wife team that developed the basic model of campaign management firms; ran very negative campaign against Upton Sinclair in 1934 governor’s race Elections: Partisan and Non-Partisan A Partisan Election is one in which candidates can list their party (less than 1% of California elected offices are partisan, but they are the most powerful offices): Federal Offices State Legislature Statewide Executive Offices (except Superintendent of Public Instruction) Non-Partisan Elections are those in which a candidate cannot list a political party (a progressive reform) State Superintendent of Public Instruction Judges All Local Offices (county, city, school board) Statewide Election Calendar: Even Years The Primary (early June) Voters choose top-two in Partisan offices Some (State and Local) Non-Partisan Elections The General Election (early November) Partisan top-two run-off Some (State and Local) Non-Partisan Runoff Elections Some Local Elections Ballot Measures Special elections: Recalls Special elections: called by the governor Local Elections Local elections are often held on dates different from statewide elections so they will not be overshadowed by statewide elections For example the city of Los Angeles has a non-partisan March primary and May run-off in odd years This can result in voters in some areas voting twice a year every year, which can result in “voter fatigue” 2010 Elections Elections 2010: Governor, other state executives, State Leg, US Congress, Props June 2010 partisan primaries (old style), incumbents won Nov 2010 general election Gov: Jerry Brown (D), all state-wide executive offices won by Democrats, state legislature: most incumbents won, US Congress: incumbents won Props Passed: Prop 25 end 2/3 requirement to pass budget and Prop 26 add requirement of 2/3 vote for fees Props Failed: legalize pot; temporarily eliminate greenhouse gas law 2012 Elections Elections 2012 Primary June 5th First widespread use of “top two” primary system for State Legislature and U.S. Congress New District Boundaries Democratic and GOP presidential primaries wrapped up by Obama and Romney before CA got to vote General Election November 6th Presidential election in CA: Obama (60%), Romney (37%) Initiatives passed in November: Prop 30: temporarily raise taxes to fund education, Prop 36: requires “3rd strike” to be violent or felony, Prop 39: new way to calculate multi-state business tax, money collected to go for clean energy 2013 and 2014 Elections Elections 2013 Los Angeles City Election Primary Election for Mayor and half of city council March 5, 2013, top two Eric Garcetti (33%) and Wendy Gruel (29%), rest 38% Run off Election for Mayor of Los Angeles May 21, 2013 won by Eric Garcetti (54%) over Wendy Gruel (46%) Elections 2014 Election for Governor and other statewide officials State Legislature, US Congress, Initiatives in Nov. only Local elections including Los Angeles County Supervisors