Political Beliefs &
Behaviors
AP US GOVERNMENT & POLITICS
Public Opinion
Definition
How people think & feel about particular things
Issues
Candidates
Political Institutions
Encompasses attitudes of millions of diverse people
Racial, ethnic, age, or regional groups
Makes studying American public opinion very complex
Essential to democracy
Measuring Public Opinion
Involves CAREFUL interviewing procedures & question-wording
Loaded questions or emotional words should be avoided
Pollster should not indicate the “right” answer
Polls – surveys of public opinion
Must be carefully executed to reflect public opinion
Random Sample – selecting from a population in which each person
has equal probability of being selected
Sampling Error – difference between results of random samples taken
at the same time
Exit Polls – polls based on interviews conducted on Election Day with
randomly selected voters
Public Opinion Polling
Developed by George Gallup in 1932
Founded firm in Princeton, NJ that spread
throughout the democratic world
Polling conducted by private firms, TV networks,
magazines, newspapers, etc.
Pollsters hired by political candidates to measure
popularity & direct campaigns
Begin when someone wants a question answered
Republican Polls, 27 September 2015
Poll
Date
RCP
9/17Averag 9/24
e
NBC 9/209/24
Fox
9/20News 9/22
CNN 9/179/19
Source: Real Clear Politics
Trump
Carson
Fiorina
Rubio
Bush
Cruz
Kasich
Christie
23.4
17.0
11.6
9.6
9.2
6.2
3.6
3.4
21
20
11
11
7
5
6
3
26
18
9
9
7
8
4
5
24
14
15
11
9
6
2
3
Democrat Polls, 27 September 2015
Poll
Date
Clinton
Sanders
Biden
RCP Average
9/17-924
40.8
27.6
20.0
NBC
9/20-9/24
42
35
17
Fox News
9/20-9/22
44
30
18
CNN
9/17-9/19
42
24
22
Source: Real Clear Politics
Sample
Questions
–
Fox
News
Phone interviews
“I’m going to read a list of potential candidates for the 2016 Democratic Nomination.
Please tell me which one you would like to see as the Democratic presidential
nominee.” (Randomize list; only given to people eligible to vote in Dem. Primary)
“Regardless of how you plan to vote, who do you believe will be the next president
of the United States?” (Open-Ended; do not read responses)
28% said Hillary Clinton; 20% said Trump
“If the 2016 presidential election were held today, how would you vote if the
candidates were Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump?”
46% Clinton; 42% Trump; 7% Wouldn’t vote
“Regardless of how you plan to vote ,which of the following better describes how
you feel about Donald Trump’s comments on the campaign trail?”
49% He is too mean & blunt to be president; 44% He tells it like it is & we need
that no win a president
Sample Questions – CNN
“We’d like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a
favorable or unfavorable opinion of these people – or if you have never heard of them”
Hillary Clinton (45/48/1)
Jeb Bush (33/43/11)
Donald Trump (33/58/2)
Rand Paul (28/34/23)
Bernie Sanders (23/22/41)
“I’m going to read a list of people who may be running in the Republican primaries for president in 2016. after I
read al the names, tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support … or if you would
support someone else.”
Trump 19%; Bush 15%; Walker 10% (July 22-25)
Democrat – Clinton 57%; Sanders 18%; Biden 14%
“Just your best guess, regardless of who you support, which Democratic candidate do you think is most likely to
win the Democratic nomination?” (July 22-25)
Clinton 75%; Biden 9%; Sanders 8%
Republican – Bush 39%; Trump 18%; Walker 11%
http://www.cnn.com/2015/07/26/politics/cnn-orc-data/index.html
Sample Polls - Gallup
Net Favorable Image – Donald Trump; Decreasing from 32% to 21% over September
Net Favorable Image – Ben Carson increasing from 51% to 58%; although only 74%
familiarity
Net Favorable Image – Hillary Clinton decreasing to 41%
Would vote for Muslim president? 60% YES
Word Association
Hillary Clinton = emails
Donald Trump = immigration
Cleavages in Public Opinion
Smaller groups in society
Predict how most people within a category – cleavage – will view issues
Demographics – study of characteristics of populations
Examples: women, men, African Americans, Catholics, Young Adults, CollegeEducated
Socioeconomic Status – division of population based on occupation, income, &
education
Race – grouping of humans with distinctive genetic characteristics
Examples – Black, Hispanic, Asian, Caucasian
Distinguishable by appearance
Ethnicity – based on national origin, religion, language, and shared culture
Examples: Jewish, Polish, Han Chinese, Navajo
Emphasize the culture
Types of Cleavages
Reinforcing Cleavage – division within society that reinforces one another, making groups
more homogeneous
Background puts a person in same camp with same friends in most issues
Strengthens political differences
Reduces incentive to compromise
May lead to violence
Often race-based in the US
Makes democracy difficult
Cross-Cutting Cleavage – divisions that cut across demographic categories, producing groups
that are more heterogeneous
Background puts a person in different camps depending on the issue
Tempers conflict
Engenders compromise
Enables stable democratic decision-making
Common in the US & most industrial societies
Examples
of
Cleavages
Socioeconomic Status / Social Class
Southerners & mountain westerners more
conservative
Northerners & West Coasters more liberal
Southerners more accommodating of
business
Social Issues – abortion, religion, welfare, etc.
Prevailing Issues
Race & Ethnicity
Social Security
Becoming more important in non-racial
Abortion
matters
War on Terror
Blacks most consistently liberal group
Environment
within Democratic Party
Hispanic & Asian Americans liberal, but less Welfare
Healthcare
so than African Americans
Immigration
Whites fairly evenly divided
Regional
Typically divided over military & civil rights
issues
Occupation depends more on schooling, so
upper-classes exposed to liberal views
Non-economic issues now define liberal &
conservative
Discussion Topics
Why might people of similar background share
opinions on controversial issues? Think of
examples.
What issues are prevalent in politics today & how
do citizens of Hackettstown feel about them?
Political Beliefs &
Opinions
Political Beliefs
Beliefs citizens hold about government & its leaders
DIFFERENT from ideology – a coherent set of values & beliefs
about public policy
Liberal – favor progress & change
Conservative – hold to tradition
4 Components of Political Opinions
Direction – Pro or Con
Degree – strongly or mildly for/against
Salience – how the issue affects your life directly
Farm policy is more salient to farmers than hairdressers
Intensity – degree of commitment
Will you vote, write letters, get arrested for the cause?
Example: A vegan with an organic farm would have a very strong opinion in support
of legislation that limits GMOs. That issue is salient to the farmer and depending on
the person, she may protest GMOs to get her point across.
Political Culture
Common set of beliefs & attitudes about government & politics
American Democratic Values
United under common political culture
Consensus of basic concepts that support democracy
Majority rule
Minority rights
Equality
Private property
Individual freedoms
Compromise
Limited government
Tend to be more nationalistic, optimistic, & idealistic than people from
other countries
American Core Values
Liberty – freedom to do as you please
Equality – equal opportunity & treatment before the
law
Individualism – importance & dignity of the individual
Democracy – government based on consent of the
people
Rule of Law – necessary to have a body of law applied
equally, impartially, & justly
Civic Duty – sense of community & individual
responsibility to support community efforts
Changing Values
Economic changes spurred by the Industrial Revolution altered American values
Capitalism – wealth based on money & capital goods – added to wealth based on
land ownership
Free Enterprise – economic competition without restraint from government
In 1930s, Great Depression brought trouble & the New Deal was an affirmation of
gov’t responsibility for welfare of its people
Promotion of General Welfare
Political tolerance – reasonable tolerance of other opinions & actions
Believe in freedom of speech, religion, & petition at least in the abstract
People are not as tolerant as they proclaim to be
Becoming more tolerant over past few decades
Most people dislike another group strongly enough to deny it political rights, but
not always inclined to act on those beliefs (Neo-Nazis, LGBT, black militants)
Our Political Culture
Mistrust of government
Trust in government & officials has DECLINED since mid-1960s
Vietnam War
Watergate
Continued since!
Drop in political efficacy – capacity to understand & influence
political events
Internal Efficacy – ability to understand & take part in
political affairs
External Efficacy – belief that the government will respond to
personal needs or beliefs
Culture Wars
Two cultural camps in constant combat with one
another
Some believe the US is subject to relatively
unchanging standards that are relatively clear:
belief in God, laws of nature, US as a force of
good in the world
Others emphasize legitimate alternatives to
those standards and that the US has had a
negative effect on world affairs
Journal Entry
Do you feel the Core American Values are still relevant today?
Liberty, Equality, Individualism, Democracy, Capitalism,
Individualism, Rule of Law, & Civic Duty
Which ones are the most prominent in our society?
Which ones are not that important anymore?
Are there any values you think we should add?
Political Socialization
Definition
Socialization is a lifelong process of learning how to behave &
think in society
5 agents:
Family
Schools
Peers
Mass Media
Religion
Shape values & beliefs
Family
Families are primary agents of socialization
Most children adopt political views of parents
Transfer of political beliefs from one generation to the next
Not always a discussion at the dinner table, but can be!
Is it genetic?
Identical twins are more likely to share similar political views than fraternal twins
Roughly 1/3 of differences among people about political beliefs comes from genetic makeup
1/10 of differences come from family influences
Half of our political views come from family & half from life experiences
Beliefs aren’t the same as party affiliation
Can be a liberal Republican or conservative Democrat
Party affiliation dependent on what we learn from parents
Party affiliation declining
Ability of family to instill a strong sense of party affiliation has declined in recent years
Younger voters have weaker sense of partisanship than older voters
Age-related differences in opinions on issues that break ideological molds (gay marriage, women’s rights,
etc.)
Religion
Also linked to family
Religious differences make for political differences
More complicated than at first glance
Usually social issues: abortion, gay marriage, LGBT Rights, war
Opinions vary within given religious traditions
Link between religion & voting
More active in church  more politically active
School
Primary school includes indoctrination
What it means to be an American
Patriotism
Teach political involvement (voting, protest, etc.)
Later grades give opportunity for questioning society, politics,
government, the status quo…
Encounter more controversial views in & out of the classroom in college
May resonate or challenge existing views
Opportunities to participate in politics on campus
Peers & Community
Teenagers: peer pressure is less evident in developing political
values
Unless it directly affects you, like a war draft or minimum wage
Later on, peers are often in your same occupation
Professionals like teachers or doctors often have similar political
opinions on matters related to their careers
Mass Media
TV shows, news reports, magazines, celebrities, Facebook pages, Twitter feeds,
Instagram accounts – they all shape your political opinion!
Provide information about relevant issues: drugs, abortion, crime, war, etc.
It all has some bias
Leads to political discussion
You shape opinions based on the information & how it is presented & sometimes
who supports the same idea
You are also biased in your interpretation of information
Selection Bias – read or watch sources that reinforce your own views
Perception Bias – miss or ignore contradictions to your views
Scrapbook Project
Create a scrapbook demonstrating how each agent of
socialization has impacted YOUR political beliefs and/or
behaviors
Include a picture & description of each page
Be as specific as you feel comfortable
DO NOT have to tell me your religion or specific views!!
(but you can if you want)
Political Ideology
Political Ideology
Definition – consistent set of beliefs about what policies governments ought to pursue
Measured in two ways:
How Frequently people use broad political categories to describe views (liberal,
conservative, or radical)
Consistency of citizen’s preferences over time or if based on consistent principles at one
time
how accurately you can predict his/her opinion
Moderates are the largest group among American voters
Conservatives are second largest
Liberals are smallest
Self-Identification Surveys don’t tell us how or whether most people think about politics in
an ideological manner
Don’t feel need to be consistent
Ask variety of questions & fit into series of categories
Political Spectrum
Liberal
Moderate
Conservative
Liberal
&
Conservative
Terms’ meanings have changed over time
Liberals disapproved of strong central government
Conservatives believed government was best left to political elites
Reversed in 1930s with New Deal
Terms do capture views held by many people in the political elite
Often refers to activists in the US
Greater consistency among political elites for several reasons
More information  more interest in politics  more consistency
More active  more association with people who agree with you & start matching their views on
other topics
Elites raise & frame political issues in the media (environmentalism, problems
abroad, etc.)
Sate norms by which issues should be settled (AIDS example: fear  support)
See Liberals & Conservatives Chart
Factors Influencing Political Attitudes
Group identifications
influence political
attitudes
Shaped by political
socialization, a lifelong
process of acquiring
opinions through contact
with family, friends, coworkers, media, & other
groups
Factors:
Family
Gender
Religion
Education
Social Class
Race
Ethnicity
Region
Factors Continued
FAMILY
GENDER
Probably most important source of
political socialization
Gender Gap – difference in political
views between men and women
Influences party identification:
majority of young people identify with
parents’ political party
Specific issues
Lower correlation today than in the
past
Consider sexual harassment more serious
than do men
More men support military actions than
women
Party identification affected, but
Growing number of “independents”
relationships have shifted through the
rather than Republicans or Democrats years
Women first more likely to support
If family is more politically active, you
Republican party than men
are likely to hold the same belief
Reversed in the 1960s when women
became more likely to vote Democrat than
men
No clear correlation for women supporting
female candidates
Factors Continued
MARITAL STATUS
Single – More likely to vote
Democratic
Married – More likely to support
Republicans
RELIGION
Relationships not as strong as they once were
Protestants more conservative on economic
matters than Catholics and Jews
Jews more liberal on economic & social issues
than Catholics & Protestants
Catholics more liberal on economic issues
than on social issues
Christians tend to have conservative views on
social issues like abortion, civil rights for
minorities, and women’s rights (but not
necessarily foreign affairs or economic issues)
Church-goers more likely to vote for
Republicans and non-Church goers for
Democrats
Factors Continued
EDUCATION
Higher education level 
conservative
College education often influences
individuals to have more liberal social
& economic attitudes
SOCIAL CLASS
Less clear relationship than before
Higher social class  more
conservative & Republican
Factors Continued
RACE & ETHNICITY
African Americans – more likely to
identify with Democratic Party & be
more liberal
Hispanic American – also more likely
to be liberal or Democrat
Asian Americans less likely to vote
Democratic
Less research than other groups
Attitudes vary by nationality
GEOGRAPHIC REGION
Coasts tend to be more liberal than
central states
Urban/rural differentiation
Coastal cities often inhabited by minorities,
immigrants, & members of labor unions
From Reconstruction-1950s, the Solid South
voted Democratic, but have become
affiliated with Republican Party since then
Political Participation
Forms of Participation
Voting in elections
Most common
Americans less likely to vote than citizens of
other democracies
Discussion of politics
Attending political meetings
Forming interest groups & PACs
Contacting public officials
Campaigning for candidates or parties
Contributing money to candidates or parties
Running for office
Protesting government decisions
6 Levels of Participation
Characteristic of 6 kinds of US citizens according to
study by Verba and Nie
Interest in conflicts, passions, and struggles of
politics
Clear identification with a political party
22% of population is completely inactive
Rarely vote
Communalists – similar to campaigners but do not
like conflict & tension of partisan campaigns
Do not get involved in organizations
Participate in community activities of a nonDon’t talk about politics
partisan nature
Typically have little education, low incomes, and
are relatively young
Parochial Participants – do not vote & stay out of
election campaigns and civic associations, but
Voting Specialists vote but do little else
contact local officials about specific, personal
not much schooling or income
problems
Older than the average person
Activists – Participate in all forms of politics
Campaigners vote and get involved with campaign
Highly educated, high incomes, & middle-aged
activities
Calibri light
Better educated
Easier to describe differences than to explain them
Participation higher among college-educated citizens
Higher among the employed than unemployed
Higher among whites & blacks than among Hispanics
Causes & Meanings
Research focused now on explaining intragroup
differences in behavior, not just intergroup
One explanation: religion
Boosts participation in politics & civic life
Certain types of religious expression increase
participation under some conditions
Latinos vote more in diverse church communities – more information available
Difficulty explaining meaning behind participation
Voting less than earlier generations, but participating more in campaigning, contacting officials,
volunteering, and working on community issues
Proportion of population that votes is lower than in other democracies, but percentage who engage
in more political activities beyond voting is higher
Meaning in voting different
Elect more public officials than citizens of other nations
Voting affects a greater part of the political system here than abroad
Elections are the basis of the democratic process
All nations have requirements for voting
Suffrage – right to vote
Changes in the US include
Voting
Elimination of religious qualifications, property
ownership, and tax payments after 1800
Elimination of race disqualifications in 1870
(15th amendment)
Elimination of gender disqualifications in 1920
(19th amendment)
Elimination of grandfather clauses, white primaries, and literacy requirements in 1965
(Civil Rights Act, Voting Rights Act)
Allowing residents of Washington, DC to vote in presidential elections in 1961 (23rd
amendment)
Elimination of poll taxes in federal elections in 1964 (24th amendment)
Lowering minimum age for voting in federal elections to 18 in 1971 (26th amendment)
Types of Voting / Elections
Issue or Policy Voting
Direct primary allows citizens to nominate candidates
Recall is a special election initiated by petition to allow citizens to
remove an
official from office
Referendums allow citizens to vote
directly on propositions (proposed laws
or amendments)
Initiatives allow voters to petition to propose issues to be decided by
qualified voters
Candidate Voting
Voting for candidates
Most common form of political participation
Low Voter Turnout
Decreased in contrast to other nations & in the US over time
Higher if elections are seen as important (presidential)
Several reasons
Expansion of electorate (increase in # voters)
Failure of political parties to mobilize voters
No perceived differences between candidates or parties
Mistrust of government
Apathy – lack of interest or belief voting is not important
Mobility – moving around leads to lack of social belonging
Registration – barriers in registration procedures from state to state
Voter Turnout in Presidential Elections
Year
%VAP
Elected
Year
%VAP
Elected
1828
57.6%
Andrew Jackson
1936
62.5%
Franklin Delano
Roosevelt
1840
80.2%
William Henry Harrison
1852
69.6%
Franklin Pierce
1952
63.2%
Dwight D Eisenhower
1860
81.2%
Abraham Lincoln
1972
69.11% REG
1872
71.3%
Ulysses S Grant
Richard Nixon (second
term)
1876
81.8%
Rutherford B Hayes
1984
71.2% REG
1912
58.8%
Woodrow Wilson
Ronald Reagan
(second term)
2000
76.0% REG
George W Bush
1920
49.2%
Warren G Harding
1924
48.9%
Calvin Coolidge
2004
79.0% REG
George W Bush
Factors
Influencing
Voting
Education – higher education, more likely a person is to vote
Most important indicator of voting behavior
Occupation & Income – white-collar jobs & higher income more likely to vote
Age – older people more likely to vote than younger people
Race – minorities are less likely to vote than whites, unless they have similar SES
Religion – people more active within their religion are more likely to vote
Marital status – married people are more likely to vote
Union membership – unions encourage participation & members tend to vote regularly
Community membership – people well integrated in community life more likely to vote
Party identification – strong sense of party identification increases voting
Geography – residents of states with interparty competition & close elections may be more likely
to vote
“Swing States” have decent # of electoral college votes; do not have consistent party-affiliated
voting pattern [NV-6; CO-9; IO-6; WI-10; OH-18; VA-13; NC-15; FL-29; NH-4
Elections
Most popular method of political participation
Elections
Purpose: citizens vote for representatives &
public officials in a democratic system
Several types
Held according to local, state, & federal laws
Congress determined all congressional &
presidential elections will be the First Tuesday
after the first Monday in November
Congressional elections held on evennumbered years
Presidential elections held every 4 years
Types of Elections
Primary Elections – voters choose candidates from each party who will run for office
Closed Primary – only voters registered in that party can choose candidates
Open Primary – voters may choose candidates of either party, whether they belong
to it or not
Blanket Primary – votes choose candidates
of either party, a republican for one office
and a democrat for another (AK and WA only)
Runoff Primary – when no candidate from
a party receives a majority of the votes, the
top two candidates face each other
General Elections – voters choose from among all candidates nominated by political
parties or running as independents
Special Elections – held when an issue must be decided by voters before a primary or
general election is held
Congressional Elections
Held every 2 years
Voter turnout in off-year elections (no presidential
election) is lower than during presidential years
Popularity of
presidential candidate
may create a coattail
effect, allowing lesserknown candidates from the party to win
Presidential Elections
Process to get to the White House may start years before the election
Exploration – determine whether you have enough political & financial support to win
Announcement – announce candidacy in a press conference
Presidential Primaries & Caucuses – state party officials meet in a caucus to endorse party candidates prior
to presidential primaries; most states use presidential preference primary
Nominating Convention – each political party holds nominating convention in the summer prior to the
general election to choose party’s presidential and vice-presidential nominees & write party platform
Campaigning– each candidate campaigns for the general election, generally traveling to swing states &
appearing moderate in an effort to win largest # of votes; televised debates
General Election – held to determine which candidate wins electoral college vote for each state (popular
vote)
Electoral College – popular vote is for electors. Each state has a number of electors equal to its senators &
representatives in Congress (DC has 3 electoral votes).
Candidate that wins majority of popular votes in a state in the general election wins all the state’s
electoral votes in the electoral college (winner-takes-all).
Votes are sent to Congress to be counted before a joint session.
Candidate who receives a majority (270) of electoral votes wins!
Partisanship in Elections
Just because there are more Republicans than Democrats or vice
versa, doesn’t mean that party’s candidate will win an election
Maintaining Election – traditional majority power maintains power
based on party loyalty of voters
Deviating Election – minority party wins support of majority-party
members, independents, & new voters
Critical Election – sharp changes in existing patterns of party
loyalty due to changing social & economic conditions
Realigning Election – minority party wins by building new coalition
of voters that continues over successive elections, usually
associated with national crisis (Great Depression)
Dealigning Election – party loyalty becomes less important to
voters