Voting Behavior
Political Parties & Elections
“I never vote for anyone. I always vote against.”
—W.C. Fields (1879-1946)
Models of Voting Behavior
Sociological – Vote choice is a function of
group membership.
 Socio-Psychological – Vote choice is the
product of long-standing identifications.
 Strategic – Vote choice is a function of the
spatial distance between a voter’s policy
preferences and the candidate’s issue
position.

What is Group Identification?
SELF-CATEGORIZATION: Selfawareness of one’s objective membership
in a group
 AFFINITY: Psychological sense of
attachment to the group

Examples…
African-American
 Working class
 Single Mom
 College student
 Republican
 Environmentalist
 Catholic
 Senior Citizen

These identities are
often ACTIVATED by
political parties and
their candidates.
Vote Choice for President by Gender
Percent voting for Democratic candidate
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1960
1968
1964
1976
1972
1984
1980
Men
1992
1988
Women
Source: National Election Studies, various years; 2008 data drawn from exit polls.
2008*
2000
1996
2004
Why should there be a “gender gap”?



Physical and sociological
differences?
Different political priorities?
Different policy preferences?
Trends in Partisan Identification Among
Women, 1952-2004
Percent responding
70
60
50
Democrats
40
Republicans
30
Independents
20
10
Source: National Election Studies, various years. Major party categories include "leaners."
2004
2000
1996
1992
1988
1984
1980
1976
1972
1968
1964
1960
1956
1952
0
Trends in Partisan Identification Among
Men, 1952-2004
Percent responding
70
60
50
Democrats
40
Republicans
30
Independents
20
10
Source: National Election Studies, various years. Major party categories include "leaners."
2004
2000
1996
1992
1988
1984
1980
1976
1972
1968
1964
1960
1956
1952
0
Party Strengths Among Male and
Female Voters
“Which political party do you think
would do a better job?”
ISSUE
MEN
WOMEN
Handling the nation’s economy
R by 8% points
D by 10% points
Handling foreign affairs
R by 20% points
D by 2% points
Making health care more affordable D by 26% points
D by 42% points
Reforming the welfare system
R by 11% points
D by 17% points
Handling the problem of poverty
D by 23% points
D by 34% points
Handling the budget deficit
R by 14% points
D by 2% points
Handling the problem of pollution
and the environment
D by 32% points
D by 33% points
Dealing with the crime problem
R by 12% points
D by 5% points
Top 10 Signs You’re a Security Mom
Your attack dog has a bin Laden chew toy.
You base your SUV purchase on how
many places there are to conceal a
weapon.
3. Your neighborhood watch complains you
don’t leave any perps for them.
4. You’ll vote for Bush because the other guy
is a wussy.
5. You traded in your Gucci for the M-30
Leather Gun Purse.
6. The guys at the range call you ‘Sarge’.
7. You send your kids to Judo Camp.
8. Your son quits the Boy Scouts because
they were “amateurs”. (MP personal
favorite)
9. Monday is “MRE Night”.
10. You DO wear combat boots.
1.
2.
Identity Politics, 2008
Did blacks support Barack Obama?
Did women support Sarah Palin?
2008
Exit Polls
Identity Politics, 2008
"For the first time
in history we
actually have a
chance at putting a
woman in the white
house and Oprah
backs the black
MAN. She's choosing
her race over her
gender – hypocrisy
at its finest!!”
What happens when social identities collide?
Vote for President by Race, 1952-2004
Percent voting for Democratic candidate
100
80
60
White
Black
40
20
0
1952
1960
1968
1976
1984
1992
2000
2004
1956
1964
1972
1980
1988
1996
2002
The Youth Vote





There are 43 million U.S. citizens
between the ages 18-30.
64% of 18-30 year old citizens are
registered to vote.
18-30 year olds make up 24% of total
pool of eligible voters.
The youth vote increased by 4.6
million in 2004. Voters under the age
of 30 made up 17% of the electorate
in 2004—roughly the same proportion
as in 2000.
In 2004, young voters preferred Kerry
to Bush by a margin of 54%-45%.
Generational Politics

Life-cycle effects



Period effects




Maturation
Role transition
"A man who is not a socialist at
20 has no heart; a man who is
still a socialist at 40 has no
head."
—Winston Churchill
Great Depression
Vietnam War
9/11
Cohort effects





“Greatest Generation,” 1901-1924
Silent Generation, 1925-1945
Baby Boomers, 1946-1964
Generation X, 1965-1980
Reagan Babies, 1980-1988
Voter Turnout by Age, 2004
Ages 18-24
% REGISTERED
52%
% TURNOUT
42%
Ages 25-44
60%
52%
Ages 45-64
73%
67%
Ages 65-74
77%
71%
Ages 75+
77%
67%
Total
66%
58%
How Apathetic?
In 2000, an annual survey of freshmen in the colleges and
universities across the country found that:
17% of students were interested in “influencing the
political structure” (58% of Baby Boomers said the same
in 1966).
 26% were interested in “keeping up with political
affairs.”
 28% wanted to be “a community leader.”
 In contrast, 73% of college freshmen said they wanted
to be well-off financially.

A Rise in Independents?


Not all respondents classified as
“Independents” label themselves that
way.
Most independents are, in fact, “hidden”
partisans.
Party Identifiers Voting for Their
Party’s Presidential Candidate
1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996
Strong Democrats
85%
73%
91%
86%
87%
93%
93%
96%
Weak Democrats
58
48
74
60
67
70
69
82
Independents, closer
to Democrats
52
60
72
45
79
88
71
76
Independents
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
Independents, closer
to Republicans
82
86
83
76
92
84
62
68
Weak Republicans
82
90
77
86
93
83
60
70
Strong Republicans
96
97
96
92
96
98
87
94
Trends in Partisan Identification, 1952-2004
Including “Leaners”
70
Percent responding
60
50
40
30
20
10
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
0
Democrat
Republican
Source: National Election Studies, various years.
Independent
Apolitical
Trends in Partisan Identification,
1952-2004
Percent responding
30
25
20
15
10
5
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
0
Strong Democrat
Weak Democrat
Independent, leans Democrat
Independent
Independent, leans Republican
Weak Republican
Strong Republican
Apolitical
2004 Exit Poll Results
Since “moral values” outranked all other issues
in the 2004 exit poll, some argue that Bush won
re-election because of a legion of religious
voters. Others call it a myth.
Religion and Voting Behavior, 2004
What are “Moral Values”?






Being against gay marriage?
Opposing stem cell research?
Opposing abortion?
Helping the poor?
Withdrawing troops from Iraq?
Character attributes of the
candidates?
Some argue that the “moral values” controversy rests on a
single “dodgy” exit poll question…
2004 Exit Poll Results