ASEA
Architecting The
RAYTHEON Production Cost Model
(RPCM)
George Stratton
Systems Engineering
Advanced Systems Economic Analysis
Raytheon Missile Systems
Tucson, Arizona
Quentin Redman
Systems Engineering
Advanced Systems Economic Analysis
Raytheon Missile Systems
Tucson, Arizona
Matthew Kehret
RMS IT
EBusiness Development
Raytheon Missile Systems
Tucson, Arizona
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Raytheon Production Cost Model (Arch RPCM.ppt) - GLS
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The Raytheon Production Cost Model Why We Bothered to Create Another Cost Model
• A complete understanding of the product’s cost
• Track and report costs on various production programs
• Production cost projections for three similar programs
• Track and manage costs in order to meet the Design to Cost (DTC) goals
• Cost data is presented to developers and managers in a form that allows them to
make decisions in a timely manner
• Evaluate design changes, preplanned product improvements and productivity
improvements
• Ability to track and take advantage of commonality across all production programs
• Visibility into supplier information
• Ability to determine the overall business impact of program changes to schedule and
loss of award.
• Implement economic order quantity vs. schedule vs. supplier data relationships
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Cost Control/Estimating Problem:
How to Account for Commonality?
Common/Similar Components
• Circuit Cards
• IMU
• Warheads/Propulsion
• etc.
Common Suppliers
• Propulsion Vendor
• Electronics Vendor
• Control Vendor
• etc.
Raytheon Production Cost Model (Arch RPCM.ppt) - GLS
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Saturday, March 12, 2016
Must Estimate Costs for Multiple Weapons
GP Smart Weapon With Advanced Propulsion Concept
Guidance
Section
Canard Housing
Payload
Steel
Bulkhead
Propulsion
Aft Obturator
Aftbody
Nozzle
Guidence Section
8%
Canard Actuator System
Assy
CAS to Payload
Connecting Ring
Payload Assy
4%
1%
42%
18%
Payload to Proplusion
Connecting Ring
Proplusion Assy
2%
Obturator Assy
11%
1%
13%
Aft Base Assy
Projectile I & T
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Model Architecting Step Wise Process
GP Program
Modeling
Needs
ASEA
Modeling
Needs
Draft
Model
Spec
Survey Potential Users
– Needs?
RPCM
Requirements
IT Tools and
Capabilities
RPCM Development
Plan
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SYSTEM ARCHITECTURE
Model schedule – The Guided Projectiles business’ need was the driving factor.
Their requirement for a near term model forced us into a spiral development process
User usability requirements drive environment – schedule, standalone vs network laptop, desktop, multiple users.
Requirement to be Certifiable - drives modeling algorithms to industry standards
e.g. supplier quotes, learning curves and rate curves along with government approved
financial factors.
Architecture – The Model’s requirements to be able to deal with commonality
among components, program build up requirements, ability to model various future
years buy requirements and financial factors drove model to be built upon a relational
data base. The model must be able to treat total component production across all
programs then allocate that production back out to the various programs demanding
that production. The basic production cost for the components is estimated at the
component level. Then at the program level, all program level economic factors are
applied and all components with in the program are summed to arrive at the program
level cost
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Programs With Common Components
WBS
3.4
3.4.5
3.4.5.1
3.4.5.1.1
3.4.5.1.1.1
3.4.5.1.1.2
3.4.5.1.1.3
3.4.5.1.1.4
3.4.5.1.1.5
3.4.5.1.1.6
3.4.5.1.1.7
3.4.5.1.1.8
3.4.5.1.2.1
3.4.5.1.3.1
3.4.5.1.4.2
3.4.5.2
3.4.5.2.1
3.4.5.2.1.1
3.4.5.3.1
3.4.5.5
3.4.5.6.2
3.4.6
3.4.6.1
3.4.6.2
3.4.6.3
3.4.6.4
3.4.7
3.4.8
3.4.9
3.4.A
3.4.B
3.4.C
31.4.D
31.4.E
31.4.F
3.4.G
3.4.H
Description
Missile
Guidance Section
RF Seeker Assembly
RF Seeker
Radome
3.1
Antenna
3.1.1
Gimbal, Servo & Rotary Joint
3.1.1.1
Transmitter
3.1.1.1.1
Synthesizer
3.1.1.1.1.1
Receiver
3.1.1.1.1.2
IF Stages
3.1.1.1.1.3
Power conditioner
3.1.1.1.1.4
RF Signal Processor
3.1.1.2
RF Data Processor
3.1.1.2.1
RF Seeker Integration & Test
3.1.1.2.1.1
IR Seeker Assembly
3.1.1.2.1.2
Raytheon
3.1.1.2.1.3
Sub Contractor
3.1.1.3
Mission Computer
3.1.1.3.1
Guidance Section Structure & Electronics
3.1.1.3.1.1
Guidance Section Integration, Assy & Test
3.1.1.4
Missile Uplink/Downlink
3.1.1.4.1
Antenna
3.1.1.4.1.1
Transmitter
3.1.1.4.1.2
Receiver
3.1.1.4
Missile Uplink/Downlink Sys Engineering, Integration & Test3.1.1.5
Battery & Power Conditioning,
3.1.1.6
Cabling
3.1.1.7
Ordnance
3.1.2
Divert Thruster
3.1.3
Rocket Motor
3.1.4
Control Actuator System
3.1.4.1
Airframe ( incl Strakes)
3.1.4.2
Missile Integration/Qual Test
3.1.4.3
Missile Canister & Heater
3.1.4.4
Integration of Munition
3.1.4.5
Ancillary Equipment (Tel & FTS)
Raytheon Production Cost Model (Arch RPCM.ppt) - GLS
WEAPON
Guidance and Control
GPS Antenna and Electronics
Antenna Assembly - HOB
CRPA GPS Antennas
Antenna Electronics
Antenna Coaxial Cables & Connectors
Antenna I&T
Mission Processor
GPS Rcvr + SASSM + KYK-13
GPS Receiver CCA
SASSM CCA
KYK-13 Subassembly
ISA/IMU
IMU
IMU and Analog Electronics in Block
Power Conditioning Unit
PCU + Battery
Power Conditioning Unit
Power Supply/Battery
Packaging
Assembly
Harnessing
Seeker
Warhead
Fuse
Airframe
Battery
CAS
Forward Body
Wing Deployment Assembly
Tail Cone Assembly
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Programs With Common Component Suppliers
WBS
3.4
3.4.5
3.4.5.1
3.4.5.1.1
3.4.5.1.1.1
3.4.5.1.1.2
3.4.5.1.1.3
3.4.5.1.1.4
3.4.5.1.1.5
3.4.5.1.1.6
3.4.5.1.1.7
3.4.5.1.1.8
3.4.5.1.2.1
3.4.5.1.3.1
3.4.5.1.4.2
3.4.5.2
3.4.5.2.1
3.4.5.2.1.1
3.4.5.3.1
3.4.5.5
3.4.5.6.2
3.4.6
3.4.6.1
3.4.6.2
3.4.6.3
3.4.6.4
3.4.7
3.4.8
3.4.9
3.4.A
3.4.B
3.4.C
31.4.D
31.4.E
31.4.F
3.4.G
3.4.H
Description
Missile
Guidance Section
RF Seeker Assembly
RF Seeker
Radome
3.1
Antenna
3.1.1
Gimbal, Servo & Rotary Joint
3.1.1.1
Transmitter
3.1.1.1.1
Synthesizer
3.1.1.1.1.1
Receiver
3.1.1.1.1.2
IF Stages
3.1.1.1.1.3
Power conditioner
3.1.1.1.1.4
RF Signal Processor
3.1.1.2
RF Data Processor
3.1.1.2.1
RF Seeker Integration & Test
3.1.1.2.1.1
IR Seeker Assembly
3.1.1.2.1.2
Raytheon
3.1.1.2.1.3
Sub Contractor
3.1.1.3
Mission Computer
3.1.1.3.1
Guidance Section Structure & Electronics
3.1.1.3.1.1
Guidance Section Integration, Assy & Test
3.1.1.4
Missile Uplink/Downlink
3.1.1.4.1
Antenna
3.1.1.4.1.1
Transmitter
3.1.1.4.1.2
Receiver
Missile Uplink/Downlink Sys Engineering, Integration & Test3.1.1.4
3.1.1.5
Battery & Power Conditioning,
3.1.1.6
Cabling
3.1.1.7
Ordnance
3.1.2
Divert Thruster
3.1.3
Rocket Motor
3.1.4
Control Actuator System
3.1.4.1
Airframe ( incl Strakes)
3.1.4.2
Missile Integration/Qual Test
3.1.4.3
Missile Canister & Heater
3.1.4.4
Integration of Munition
3.1.4.5
Ancillary Equipment (Tel & FTS)
Raytheon Production Cost Model (Arch RPCM.ppt) - GLS
WEAPON
Guidance and Control
GPS Antenna and Electronics
Antenna Assembly - HOB
CRPA GPS Antennas
Antenna Electronics
Antenna Coaxial Cables & Connectors
Antenna I&T
Mission Processor
GPS Rcvr + SASSM + KYK-13
GPS Receiver CCA
SASSM CCA
KYK-13 Subassembly
ISA/IMU
IMU
IMU and Analog Electronics in Block
Power Conditioning Unit
PCU + Battery
Power Conditioning Unit
Power Supply/Battery
Packaging
Assembly
Harnessing
Seeker
Warhead
Fuse
Airframe
Battery
CAS
Forward Body
Wing Deployment Assembly
Tail Cone Assembly
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Saturday, March 12, 2016
Requirements to Design
• Initial requirements document was used to create an outline of
the system functionality
• User roles were derived from requirements
• Initial requirements document was translated into a
categorized list of succinct requirement statements
• Each bullet from the categorized list was mapped to system
functionality
• System capability was broken into executable units and used to
define each iteration of development
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General Requirements
•
•
•
•
All Up Round Production Costs
– Future phases may include other cost (i.e.
Operations & Support, etc.)
– Will use ‘part/task numbers’ to capture LOE,
non-recurring costs
• Must have ability to apply support (vs
hourly) wrap-rates to support lines
Ability to identify & manipulate common parts
across programs
All algorithms
– Quantity Curve + Learning
– Rate Curve
– Rate Applications (i.e. cost, price, burden,
etc.)
– Price Breaks and Quotes
Model validation
– Calculations
– Functionality
– Output presentation
Data Controls
•
•
•
•
•
Commonality (part used interchangeably on multiple programs)
– May or may not have the same part number
• Have ability to manually flag part numbers as
common where part number nomenclature is
different
Recurring/Non-recurring
– Flag with the ability to summarize by Recurring/Nonrecurring
Prime Material $, Labor Hours
– Labor Hours will be converted to Labor Dollars using
‘wrap rates’ as provided by the user
Burdened Cost, Price
Recurring Costs
– Theoretical First Unit (T1) cost
– Learning curve (lot by lot)
– Step-down (lot by lot)
– Rate curve
– Rates and Factors
– Production Schedules (Production Phase)
– Configuration (BOM - WBS)
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Data Controls (2)
•
•
•
•
•
Non-recurring Costs
– Cost for each alternative being evaluated
• Hardware changes
• P31
• Producability
• Business
Pre-determined cost goals and targets
Groundrules and assumptions
– Assumed economics (FY$, TY$, & Units)
– Assumed quantity
– Cost or price indicator
– Commonality assumption
Data Validation (Error Checking)
Validation of input data
•
Confidence Indicator
– Ability to flag each part number with a code
– Table with ability to add/change/delete codes
• CURRENT QUOTE
• OLD QUOTE
• PURCHASE ORDER HISTORY
• NTE BUDGETARY
• ESTIMATED VS. SIMILARITY
• SCALED OR MODIFIED ESTIMATE
• ENGINEERING ESTIMATE
• ROM
• ROLL-UP
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RPCM Developmental Phases
Determine
Objectives,
Alternatives
&
Constraints
Spiral Development
Over Multiple
Phases (more?)
Risk/Analysis
Rapid Spiral
Development
Plan
Next
Phase
Spiral
Prototype
Build
Unit Test
I&T
O&S AT
Develop, Verify
Next Level
Product
PHASES
Features
• Ρ1 — Sept. 01 - Dec. 01
Requirements & MS Access Framework (Parts DB)
• Ρ2 — Dec. 01 - Jan. 02
Quotes Data and Excel Reports (4 + Data Dump)
• Ρ3 — Feb. 02 - March 02
Learning Curve (LC) Cum. Qty and Excel Input
• Ρ4 — April 02 - June 02
Learning Curve - Rotation & Step Down
• Ρ5 — June 02 - July 02
Part Commonality & LC Fix (True Cum Avg.)
• Ρ6 — Aug. 02 - Sept. 02
Extend Production Years & Fixed Cost
• P7 — Oct.02 - July 03
Manufacturing Build Up, Expand Reports, & User
Interface Update & Rate Curves
Raytheon Production Cost Model (Arch RPCM.ppt) - GLS
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Saturday, March 12, 2016
RPCM PROJECT SUMMARY
(circa March 2002)
Phase 1 - 1 December 2001
• Model Spec. and Requirements Generated
• Model Structure Coded
• Parts Data - Quotes, Learning, Level Of Effort, Lot Recurring and Lot Level of Effort
• WBS - Multiple Programs Unique and Standard
• Financial Factors - Wrap Rates
• Roll up and Learning Curve Estimating Equations for Parts
• BOM
• Model Filled with “Projectiles” Provided Data (used for testing)
• Stand Alone Capability
• Ability to model and store “what if” scenarios.
• Output = 3 described reports and a data dump to excel
Phase 2 - Early January 2002
• Cumulative Average Learning Step Functions For Individual Parts
• Stand Alone Version - ability to edit data
Phase 3 - March 2002
• Step up/down and multiple steps on Cumulative Average Curve for individual parts
• Stand Alone Version - ability to upload data to master
• Reports Log, new versions, Scenarios, etc.
Phase 4 - (Next)
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RPCM Overview
SCENARIO 2
SCENARIO 1
Parts Data Base
Part A - “Quote”
Part B - Learning Curve
Part C - Level of Effort
Program Data
PGMM
WBS
XM982
QTY by Year
WBS
ERGM
Part D Part E Part F -
Phase 1 consists
of 3 Graphs
QTY by Year
WBS
QTY by Year
REPORTS
Model Parametrics
Financial Equations
a Data Dump
all in Excel
Cum. Average Learning
Built Up
Rates & Factors
Raytheon Production Cost Model (Arch RPCM.ppt) - GLS
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Saturday, March 12, 2016
Quantity Buy Options
Built in to RPCM
Rate Effects
• Fixed Costs
1200
• Supplier Quantity
Quotes
• Learning Curves
• Smooth
• Steps
Avg. Unit Cost
• Rate Curves
Supplier Quantity Quotes
1000
• Rotations
800
600
Rate Curve
400
200
0
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Lot Quantity
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Quantity Buy Options – Cont.
Built in to RPCM
• Fixed Costs
• Supplier Quantity Quotes
• Rate Curves
• Learning Curves
• Smooth
• Steps
• Rotations
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Software Development Approach
• Visual Source Safe was used to track configuration of source code
• Used Relational Database
• Collected as many of the system requirements and user expectations as early
possible
• Wire-Framing / Mock Ups
– Wire-Framing is a term used to describe a text based description of the application
flow, where the each screen in the system and their associated functionality is
defined
– Mock Ups are complete visualizations of each screen in the application
• Followed a variation of eXtreme Programming
– Followed:
•
•
•
•
•
•
Customer was highly available and consulted regularly during development
Small and well defined iterations were released to user community
System metaphor was determined
Daily Status/Stand Up meetings
Unit Tests
Regular builds
– Not Followed:
• “Pair Programming” (i.e. – TWO developer to ONE computer)
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Software Environment
• Developed as a client-server application, using Visual
Basic 6.0 (VB) as the front-end and MS Access as the
data repository
• Requirement for the tool to work on a laptop in a
“disconnected” environment
• Followed all applicable industry based VB naming
standards and implemented classes
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Raytheon Production Cost Model (Arch RPCM.ppt) - GLS
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Phase I - Process Flow
Initial Data
Validation
Subsequent
Data Input
Data
Analysis/
Manipulation
Rate Table
Update
DB
Report
Selection
CRI - Not
in Phase I
Validation/
Detailed
Reports
Data
Preparation
Security Maintenance
User Interface (VB)
System (VB)
Excel
MS Access
Summarized
Tabular Data
Graphs
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Data Input Window
Subsequent
Data Input
Drop down selection for
• Production Phase
• Customer
• Program
• System
• Function
– Manually input Part Number (must define
‘parent/child relationship’
– Flag for ‘commonality’ if available via
different customer/program (and part
number is unique)
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Data Analysis/Manipulation Window
Data
Analysis/
Manipulation
– Drop down selection for
•
•
•
•
•
Production Phase
Customer
Program
System
Function
– Manually input Part Number (must
define ‘parent/child relationship’
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Phase I - Reports
Summarized
Tabular Data
Graphs
• Stacked bar graphic and tabular data
• By System by fiscal year
• By System by function by fiscal year
• More Requirements forth coming
Both include ground rules and assumptions
User Interface (VB)
System (VB)
Excel
MS Access
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Phase I - Position Capture
Summarized
Tabular Data
Graphs
• In Phase I, Users will be responsible for capturing
‘positions.’ That is, positions will be accomplished by
captured/archived using Excel.
•For example: Reports created on 15 Dec 01 could be
saved as 15_dec_01.xls and rpts created on 15 Jan 02
could be saved as 15_jan_02.xls. Variances between
positions could be displayed using Excel (as created by
the User)
User Interface (VB)
System (VB)
Excel
MS Access
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MODEL VALIDATION
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Validating and verifying requirements document specified the right equations
and methodologies for the developer to follow and that these items were
functionally implemented in the application.
Code walkthroughs were held between the developers and the process experts to
ensure that all of the equations and processes defined in level one were followed
correctly in the code.
A regression database was created that stores a small set of data used in
conjunction with the model, for which the right final end product answers have
been pre-calculated by hand and also simulated by spreadsheet. After each
iteration of changes is made to the model, regression tests are run and their
output is compared to that provided by the hand calculations and previous runs.
This check helps to ensure that each development iteration does not impact
calculations that were already validated and correctly functioning within the
model.
Test plans - With the test plans and regression database in hand, testers have
repeatable test processes that help to ensure all key aspects of the application are
tested for each iteration and produce the desired output.
“Ghost” results for a period of time, ensuring that the new model was arriving at
the same answer as the older models
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LESSONS LEARNED
Creating the model under these conditions created a number of interesting lessons
learned. The major ones are:
•
1st. Constant and consistent staffing is a must – no variances in staffing
levels should be allowed and continuity of personnel is a must. The first time we
went around the spiral, there was a change in cost engineering and software
personnel. The new personal had to learn what went before. Fortunately, we were
able to keep our chief engineers (systems and software) so there was a corporate
memory.
•
2nd. Assure “complete” budget before starting. Stops, starts and staffing
reductions will all cause increased schedule and total project cost increases.
•
3rd. Systems Engineering - Complete at least the required minimal flow
chart with equations prior to beginning coding. Missing levels of understanding of
the set of requirements, even in a spiral development environment, can cause an
unacceptable level of rework.
•
4th. Have your final product in mind at all times and work towards it.
Intermediate steps should be steps on the path to reach that ultimate product.
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Implementation (Roll Out)
• Preferred Tool for Design Cost Goal Tracking (New)
• GP (3 Programs)
• Classified
• In Process
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