2008 Economic Update
Information provided by
Jacksonville State University
Center for Economic Development and
College of Commerce and Business Administration
Opening the Door to the
Future
Overview
• Calhoun County Update
• State of Alabama Update
1
Calhoun County 2007 Update
• Member Survey
• Employment
• Unemployment
• County Gross Domestic
Product
• Housing
2
Q#1: Your Comparison of
this Year to Last
This year
worse
11%
About
same
49%
This year
better
40%
Year 2008
3
Q#1: Your Comparison of
this Year to Last 2003-2008
% "This Year Better"
80%
60%
70%
64%
67%
58%
56%
40%
40%
20%
0%
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
4
Q#2: Your Employment Outlook
for Coming Year
Cutback #
emp
4%
Remain
same
65%
Expand #
emp
31%
Year 2008
5
Q#2: Your Employment Outlook
for Coming Year 2003-2008
% "Expand # Emp"
52%
34%
44%
34%
43%
37%
31%
28%
17%
0%
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
6
Q#3: How Likely to Increase
Employee Compensation in
Coming
Year
Very
unlikely
7%
Remain same
75
Very likely
58%
May or
may not
35%
Year 2008
7
% "Very Likely"
75%
50%
Q#3: How Likely to Increase Emp
Compensation in Coming Year
2003-2008
68%
48%
47%
2003
2004
54%
53%
58%
25%
0%
2005
2006
2007
2008
8
Population Trends
Calhoun County 1999-2006
118.0
116.5
In 1,000
116.0
114.0
111.3 111.2 111.4
112.0
112.9
112.4
112.1
112.1
110.0
108.0
99
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
9
Labor Force Calhoun County
1999-2007
In 1,000
56.0
54.0
54.3 54.2 54.2
54.0
53.5
53.2
52.0
52.0
54.6
51.6
50.0
99
00
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
*Jan-Nov 2007
10
Employment for Calhoun
County 1999-2007
56.0
In 1,000
53.5
51.2
51.0
50.6
50.5
49.2
51.2
51.7
52.2
52.7
48.7
48.5
46.0
99
00
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
*Jan-Nov 2007
11
Unemployment Rate for
Calhoun County 1999-2007
% Unemployed
6%
5.5%
5.7%
5.4%
5.1% 5.1%
5.1%
5%
4.5%
4%
3.6% 3.5%
3%
99
00
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
*Jan-Nov 2007
12
Unemployment for Calhoun
County vs Alabama 2007
Calhoun
Alabama
4.5%
% Unemployed
4.1% 4.1%
4.0%
4.0%
3.7%
3.5%
3.5%
3.4%
3.3%
3.0% 3.3%3.3% 3.3%
3.7%
3.6%
3.5%
3.8% 3.7%
3.7%
3.1% 3.5%
3.5%
3.1%
3.1%
2.8%
2.5%
Jan
Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Jul
Aug Sep
Oct
Nov
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
13
3.4%
Alabama
Unemployment Rates
November 2006
State Ave – 3.6%
Unemployment Rate
3.1% and Below
3.2% - 3.8%
3.9% and Above
Source: AL Dept of Industrial Relations
14
3.7%
Alabama
Unemployment Rates
November 2007
State Ave – 3.5%
Unemployment Rate
3.3% and Below
3.4% - 4.4%
4.5% and Above
Source: AL Dept of Industrial Relations
15
Calhoun County Gross
Domestic Product
2001-2005 in $ Billions
GDP in $ Billions
$3.10
$2.950
$2.867
$2.90
$2.665
$2.70
$2.50
$2.542
$2.422
$2.30
01
Source: U. S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
02
03
04
05
16
Calhoun County Gross
Domestic Product % Change
2002-2005
GSP change in %
8.1%
5.9%
5.0%
4.8%
7.6%
3.7%
2.1%
1.5%
02
Source: U. S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
03
04
05
17
Calhoun Housing Statistics
Nov 2006 – Nov 2007
YTD Nov 2006 YTD Nov 2007 % Change
Total Homes
Sold
Total Homes
Listed
Avg Selling
Price
Avg Days on
Market
1,274
1,194
-6.3%
9,549
11,570
+21.1%
$132,592
$135,598
+2.2%
133
147
+10%
Source: Alabama Real Estate Research & Education Center
18
Number of Home Sales Per
Month Calhoun County
1998-2007
Home Sales/Month
135.0
122.2
113.8
108.5
103.5
120.0
92.5 Avg - - -
105.0
93.7
90.0
81.9
80.2
79.7
77.6
75.0 69.4
60.0
98
99
Source: Alabama Center for Real Estate
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
*Jan-Nov 2007
19
Ave # of Days Homes on
Market Calhoun County
1998-2007
Ave Days on Market
160
156
155
154
149 149 149
148
150
146 Avg - - 147
145
138
140
135
134
133
130
98
99
Source: Alabama Center for Real Estate
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
*Jan-Nov 2007
20
Anniston Chemical Agent
Disposal Facility
Since 1st burn on August 9, 2003, have destroyed
• 42,738 GB-filled rockets/warheads (0 remain)
• 16,026 GB-filled 8-inch Projectiles (0 remain)
• 9,060 GB-filled 155 Projectiles (0 remain)
• 98% storage risk eliminated (M55 Rockets)
• 38% stockpile destroyed
Source: Anniston Chemical Agent Disposal Facility
21
Calhoun County:
Summing it Up
•
•
•
•
Membership Survey-Guarded
Population- Up
Employment- Up
Unemployment- Down YTD Nov 07
– Nov 06 vs Nov 07 up slightly
– New record low in April 2007 (2.8%)
• Housing Market- Down
– Down from record highs
22
State of Alabama Update
• BLCI Survey
• Demographics
• Economic
Indicators
• Education
• Achievemens
2003
• Other Issues
23
Alabama Business Leaders
Confidence Index
• State Survey – 4th Quarter 2007
• Approximately 350 respondents
• www.blcindex.com
24
Alabama Economic Outlook
Q4 2006 compared to Q3 2006
% of Respondents
60%
Last Year
42.1%
41.8%
40%
20%
0%
12.3%
3.8%
0.0%
Strong
Decrease
Moderate No Change Moderate
Decrease
Increase
Source: Alabama Business Leaders Confidence Index
Strong
Increase
25
Alabama Economic Outlook
Q4 2007 compared to Q3 2007
% of Respondents
60%
This Year
41.4%
40%
37.2%
18.2%
20%
0.6%
2.6%
0%
Strong Moderate
No
Moderate Strong
Decrease Decrease Change Increase Increase
Source: Alabama Business Leaders Confidence Index
26
Alabama Economic Outlook
Q4 2006 – Q4 2007
% "Next Quarter Better"
60.0%
56.0%
55.0%
54.2%
56.8%
53.6%
50.7%
50.0%
45.0%
Q4 06
Q1 07
Source: Alabama Business Leaders Confidence Index
Q2 07
Q3 07
Q4 07
27
Alabama Population
2000-2007 in Millions
4.7
4.599
4.628
in 1,000,000
4.557
4.6
4.5
4.385
4.370
4.349
4.332
4.4
4.414
4.3
00
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
28
Alabama High Inbound State
January – December 2007
High Inbound
High Outbound
Balanced
Source: United Van Lines Migration Study
29
Alabama Civilian Labor Force
2001-2007 in Millions
2.25
In Millions
2.20
2.15
2.13
2.15
2.16
2.15
2003
2004
2005
2.22
2.23
2006
2007
2.09
2.10
2.05
2.00
2001
2002
Source: Alabama Dept of Industrial Relations
*Jan-Nov 2007
30
Alabama Employment
2001-2007 in Millions
2.24
In Millions
2.16
2.08
2.02
2.02
2.04
2.06
2004
2005
2.14
2.15
2006
2007
1.97
2.00
1.92
1.84
2001
2002
Source: Alabama Dept of Industrial Relations
2003
*Jan-Nov 2007
31
Alabama Unemployment
2001-2007
% Unemployed
6.9%
5.9% 5.8% 5.7%
5.9%
5.0%
4.7%
4.0%
3.6%
3.5% 3.5%
3.0%
2001
Source: U.S. Department of Labor
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
*Jan-Nov 2007
32
Alabama Gross State Product
1998-2006 in $Billions
$137
$132
GSP in $Billions
$140
$128
$130
$122
$120
$111
$116
$114 $115
$118
$110
$100
98
99
Source: U. S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
33
Alabama Gross State Product
% Change 1998-2006
GSP change in %
5.5%
4.9%
4.5%
3.8%
3.1%
3.4%
3.5% 2.8% 2.7%
2.5%
1.7%
0.9%
1.5%
0.9%
0.5%
98
99
Source: U. S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
34
Total Tax Revenue Alabama
% Change FY 01-02 thur FY 06-07
10.9% 9.8%
Tax Rev change in %
12.0%
8.2%
9.0%
6.0%
4.2%
3.2%
3.0%
0.9%
0.0%
01-02
Source: Alabama Department of Revenue
02-03
03-04
04-05
05-06
06-07
*FY: Oct-Sept
35
Income Tax Rev change in %
Income Tax Revenue Alabama
% Change FY 01-02 thur FY 06-07
11.4%
12.0%
9.0%
8.0%
9.0%
9.1%
6.0%
2.4%
3.0%
0.8%
0.0%
01-02
Source: Alabama Department of Revenue
02-03
03-04
04-05
05-06
06-07
*FY: Oct-Sept
36
Sales Tax Rev change in %
Sales Tax Revenue Alabama
% Change FY 01-02 thur FY 06-07
9.0%
10.0%
8.1%
7.8%
5.5%
6.1%
4.2%
2.5%
3.3%
1.7%
1.0%
01-02
Source: Alabama Department of Revenue
02-03
03-04
04-05
05-06
06-07
*FY: Oct-Sept
37
Tax Revenue Alabama
% Change Dec 2006 Vs Dec 2007
% Unemployed
17.0%
15.07%
15.07%
13.5%
10.0%
5.96%
6.5%
3.0%
Income Tax Individual
Source: Alabama Department of Revenue
Sales Tax
Total Tax
38
Alabama Housing Statistics
Nov 2006 – Nov 2007
Total Homes
Sold
Avg Selling
Price
Avg Days on
Market
Total Homes
Listed
YTD Nov 2006
YTD Nov 2007
% Change
55,306
52,875
-4.4%
$156,535 $157,818 +.82%
123
123
0%
366,005
451,852
+23%
Source: Alabama Real Estate Research & Education Center
39
Number Home Sales Per Month
Alabama 1998-2007
4,994 4,971
Home Sales/Month
5200
4,539
3,760 Avg - - -
4550
4,807
3,960
3900
3250
2,875
2,750
2,792
2,922 2,985
2600
98
99
00
Source: Alabama Center for Real Estate
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
*Jan-Nov 2007
40
Ave # of Days Homes on Market
Alabama 1998-2007
Ave Days on Market
160
153
150
140
145
156
151
140 Avg - - 143
141
136
130
130
122 123
120
98
99
Source: Alabama Center for Real Estate
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
*Jan-Nov 2007
41
State of Alabama:
Summing it Up
• Outlook Survey• Alabama Gross State
Guarded
Product – Up
• State Population- Up • State Tax Revenues
– Up, decreasing rate
• Labor Force- Flat
• Housing Sales
• Employment- Flat
– Down from record
• Unemployment- Flat
highs
42
43
44