Running head: BECKER COLLEGE: “BE THE CHANGE:” FUTURING TECHNIQUES
Becker College: “Be the Change:”
Deborah Crowley
EDU 505.90: Future of Education
Professor Rebecca Waters
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BECKER COLLEGE: “BE THE CHANGE:” FUTURING TECHNIQUES
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As we move from one century to the next, society tends to refer to each era or generation
with a term that describes the time period, such as the age of discovery, or the industrial period,
or as the case presently in the 21st century, the information age. Looking back on these time
periods we can gather historical information that is not only interesting, but can also be used as a
valuable tool. While some find it rewarding to think about the past, there are futurists that like
to envision the future. Society has seen countless changes, and the field of education is no
different. Change is inevitable! When analyzing the future of education there are methods and
techniques that can assist the futurist in determining what factors will be most significant in
order to develop plans for the future. This process is referred to as futuring, and two futuring
techniques that can be used are scenarios and scanning. The process of futuring is an extremely
important practice that can help educational organizations to continually grow and or prosper,
well into and beyond, the 21st century.
Futuring
By definition, “a futurist is a person who engages in a great deal of futuring or otherwise
demonstrates a serious rational or scientific concern for the future” (“Dictionary of Foresight:
Futuring,” n.d.).
Futuring looks at trends, patterns, and historical information, not to forecast
the future, so much as a way to recognize or ascertain what it might be like (Miezner & Reger,
2005). As futurist, David Houle states in his video on what it means to be a futurist (2008),
“being a futurist means my highest value to the marketplace and to the planet, is to be a catalyst
to get people like you, to think about the future and then to hopefully facilitate the discussion
about the future that might result” (“What is A Futurist? – by Futurist David Houle,’’2008).
Houle’s definition of futuring, does not include forecasting or predicting. Futurists simply give
thought to what the world or society might be like; a sort of “wonder - if” thought process.
Futuring Techniques
The futuring process is an effective, useful, and necessary way for organizations, such as
the field of education, to position themselves strategically as players in the marketplace
(Mietzner & Reger, 2005). Since change is inevitable, without futuring an organization may risk
becoming complacent or stagnant. Since the educational field is in the process of significant
change due to external forces, such as the increased cost of higher education, the demand for
technology in the learning environment, the increasing demand for a workforce with postsecondary degrees (Johnson, Adams Becker, Estrada, & Freeman, 2014), the method of futuring
is critical.
Since futuring can be overwhelming for some, there are several techniques used to guide
and/or facilitate the futuring methodology. Two methods commonly used are Scenarios and
Scanning. The Scenario planning concept according to an article written by Dana Mietzner and
Guido Reger (Advantages and disadvantages of scenario approaches for strategic foresight,
2005) “first emerged following World War II, as a method for military planning. The US Air
Force tried to imagine what its opponents might do and to prepare alternative strategies. “The
big push for scenarios as an organization or institutional model for clarifying ideas about the
future goes back to the Department of Defense in the 1950s (Daum 2001). In the 1960’s Herman
Kahn, who had been part of the Air Force effort, refined scenarios as a tool for business
prognostication. According to Mietzner and Reger, Herman Kahn became one of the USA’s top
futurists”. (Advantages and disadvantages of scenario approaches for strategic foresight, 2005).
Scenarios represent a story with multiple perspectives. It is a way to look at various possibilities
and events and how they could play out in the future.
Scenario planning may seem convoluted, but it is a way for organizations to prepare for
the future. Again according to Mietzner and Reger, (Advantages and disadvantages of scenario
Futuring Techniques
approaches for strategic foresight, 2005) “The human mind is capable of profound integration,
but that is laborious. The great value of scenario is being able to take complex elements and
weave them into a story which is coherent, systematic, comprehensive and plausible.” The
definition of scenarios from World Future Society (World Future Society – “Dictionary of
Foresight,”n.d.) is as follows: “the future development of a trend, a strategy, or a wild-card
event may be described in story or outline form. Typically, several scenarios will be developed
so that decision makers are aware that future events may invalidate whatever scenario they use
for planning purposes.” These multiple variations may cause confusion for some.
However, there are positives and negative to Scenario planning; since scenario planning
is essentially risk free, the positive outweigh the negatives especially if what learned can produce
a valuable gain. For example, scenario planning is very time consuming. Creating scenario after
scenario takes extensive brainstorming and data analysis. This can be costly to some
organizations particularly if a staff of personnel is required to pour through facts and trends.
Scenarios additionally require many alternatives which can seem fictitious or too unknown.
Alternatively, scenario planning “forces” the mind to think outside the box, opening the mind to
other options, to visualize and wonder if, creating possibilities and a variety of perspectives.
The time is the real investment when it scenario planning is utilized, however what is learned
from this thought process can and if utilized can make a difference for the future.
Scanning is a technique that is also used in futuring. Scanning by definition from World
Future Society (World Future Society – “Dictionary of Foresight,”n.d.). “is an ongoing effort to
identify significant changes in the world beyond the organization or group doing the scanning.
Typically scanning is based on a systematic survey of current newspapers, magazines, web sites
and other media for indications of changes likely to have future importance. Scanning focuses
Futuring Techniques
mainly on trends – changes that occur through time- rather than events, changes that occur very
quickly and generally are less significant for understanding the future.” If scenario planning
seemed difficult and cumbersome, scanning will seem even more so. As described in the Journal
of Extension (Journal of Extension, The Steps of Futuring, June 2004) scanning is a method of
looking at “the environment and turning data into usable information”. This technique of
scanning is very challenging for some organizations since in order to be most effective,
enormous amounts of data must be analyzed and interpreted to a level which can be commonly
understood. This data analysis is extremely time consuming and therefore costly; however
without the scanning process, the futuring technique may be lost.
Conclusion
In conclusion, by looking at futuring as a technique and the two methods of scenario and
scanning the scenario planning is more theoretical and abstract in comparison to scanning which
is entirely factually based. Therefore, as a result, the two combined together can provide the
futurist with the necessary information to put together a strategic plan that will address the issues
or challenges or ideas that will enable the educational organization to prosper and thrive in the
future.
Futuring Techniques
Futuring Techniques
References
Houle, David. YouTube “What is a futurist”.
Journal of Extension, The Steps of Futuring, June 2004
Mietzner, Dana and Reger, Guido. (2005). Advantages and disadvantages of scenario
approaches for strategic foresight.
World Future Society – “Dictionary of Foresight,”n.d.