Preparation of your PowerPoint Presentation
•
Pick and choose which slides you want for your
presentation
•
Think about which questions you want to ask your
audience (to inspire you, more questions are offered in
the last slides)
•
Contact WBCSD if you want any of the photos in
higher resolution: info@wbcsd.org
Please note that this is a Working Document!
Version January 2007
Business in the world of water
Sample Agenda, e.g. 10:00 – 12:00
10:05 – 10:15
Water & Business: an overview – Ms. X,
Company X
10:15 – 10:50
Context and Presentation of the Scenarios
10:50 – 11:20
Breakout discussions in 3 groups
11:20 – 11:30
Feedback from each group
11:30 – 11:40
Water & Scenarios within Company Y –
Mr. Y, Company Y
11:40 – 12:00
Q&A and Close
Objective of this Session
Understand water-business links
…by using scenario framework as a tool
World Business Council for Sustainable
Development (WBCSD)
Business Cannot Succeed in a Society that Fails
• 190 global network of international companies
• WBCSD objectives include:
– Business Leadership
– Policy Development
– The Business Case
– Best Practice
– Global Outreach
Freshwater Stress is Increasing…
Faster than Expected
How much water will be withdrawn with respect to the amount that is naturally available?
---- 2005
Water Risks to Business
• License to Operate
• Climate Change
Droughts
Stranded Assets
• Increased Production Costs and Interruptions
• Community and Regulatory Pressure
• Health of Employees
• Brand Image
• Limitations to Growth of Consumer Markets
Introducing the WBCSD Water Scenarios
Objectives in Building these Scenarios
Promote mutual
understanding
Clarify and enhance
understanding by
business
…and support effective
business action
WBCSD Water Program – Core Team
19 Leading multinational companies in diverse sectors:
•
Oil and gas
•
Food and beverage
•
Mining and metals
•
Consumer products
•
Environmental & engineering consultants
•
Financial
•
Water services
WBCSD Scenario-Building Process
Introducing Scenarios: Learning from the Future
Understand the Scenarios yourself…
Reflect on how you could use them in your
company
Scenarios for Better Strategies…
•
Strategy is about
what we ‘should’ do
•
Scenarios explore
what ‘might’ happen
Scenarios versus Forecasts
The Present
The Path
The Future
FORECAST
Current
Realities
(mental maps)
Multiple
Paths
Alternative
Future Images
SCENARIOS
What are Scenarios?
X

Predictions
Credible
Projections
Challenging
Preferences
Coherent
…stories describing paths to different futures, that help us make better decisions
today
Introducing the WBCSD Water Scenarios
Complex Interplay of Local and Global Influences…
Three Parallel Stories
Post-its for ideas on dilemmas
and business actions
Key Story Themes
Hydro
More drops, more value per drop
China ranks fourth in the world for
renewable water resources, but
because of its large population, it
has only 1/4 of the global average
of water per capita.
2005
2010
2015
2025
Photo: Naval Safety Center
Unlocking Legacies of the Past
Photo:
Over the last two decades, Eskom has introduced a
number of innovative technologies to save water.
These include dry cooling, desalination of polluted
mine water for use at the power stations, etc. In
doing so, more than 200 million liters of water
are saved every day. E.g.: Dry cooling technology
uses about 15 times less water than conventional
wet-cooled power stations.
© Unilever
Efficiency
Rivers
Security for all… in terms of quality and quantity
« Water management is, by definition,
conflict management. »
Worldwatch Institute, 2005
2005
2010
2015
2025
Redistribution Challenge
Photo: © International Federation of Red
Cross and Red Crescent Societies
2-sides: ‘Haves’ and ‘Have-nots’
Aug 2006: Kerala, India ban on Coke and PepsiCo products after Centre for Science and
Environment said they contained unsafe levels of pesticides. Six other states in India prohibited
sales at or near schools, colleges and hospitals.
Sep 2006: Kerala ban lifted by an Indian court due to inconsistencies in the group's analysis.
‘Coca-Cola India has always been completely confident of the safety of its soft drinks in India
because they are produced to the same level of purity, regarding pesticides, as the EU
criteria for bottled water (globally accepted as one of the most stringent in the world).’
Sep 29 2006 The Coca-Cola Company statement, www.coca-cola.com
Ocean
Accounting for the whole system
Approximately 37% of the global
population (over 2 billion people)
lives within 100 km (60 miles) of a
coastline.
2005
2010
2015
2025
Virtual Water – to produce one kilogram of…
Estimated water use
by life cycle stage
(%) Unilever, 2005
1,300
3,400
liters
liters
15,500
liters
Unintended Consequences
Three Different Futures Could Unfold…
2006
Social tensions/conflicts and rivalries over water increase
Legal and moral liabilities about access and responsible use flare
National security interests inhibit progress towards IWRM..
Local solutions sought
Breakout Discussions – 3 Groups (30 minutes)
Group 1
•
•
Group 2
Group 3
What are the key dilemmas in Hydro/Rivers/Ocean?
What actions do you recommend to deal with them?
• Learn & share
• Report back
For your Company, is Water a…
What are you going to
drink for lunch?
Take Home Question
Considering the scenarios as a set, what do you
now think are the biggest risks and opportunities
for your business’ operations, investment
decisions, products, or services in an increasingly
water-stressed world?
“These scenarios highlight the
complex interrelationship between
water, energy and food security and
the need for a holistic approach to
water management.”
Jeroen van der Veer, CEO of Shell
EXTRA SLIDES
Objectives in Building these Scenarios
•
Clarify and enhance understanding by business of
the key issues and drivers of change related to water.
•
Promote mutual understanding between the business
community and non-business stakeholders on water
management issues.
•
Support effective business action as part of the
solution to sustainable water management.
Core Team:
19 leading multinational companies in diverse sectors:
Oil and gas / Food and beverage / Mining and metals / Consumer products
/ Environmental & engineering consultants / Financial / Water services
Key Stages in the Scenario Process
Jan-Sept 2005
Orientation
Oct 2005
Scenario Building
Interviews
Synthesis
Workshops:
-Panama
-China
-Switzerland
Research
Jan 2006
Affirmation
2006
Application
Sector strategies
Framework
Test plausibility,
challenge,
relevance
Narratives
Ownership
Wider advocacy
Focused analysis
Communication
New Initiatives
Drafting
Business awareness
Collaborative action
Hydro
More drops, more value per drop
2005 – 2010: More and More Mega Cities
•
Consume more and more water, leads to increasing water
stress
2008 – 2010: In the Shadow of the Olympics
•
Positive press coverage ignores increasing tensions between
rural & urban (preferential treatment to urban and industrial)
2010 – 2015: Huge Opportunities
•
China opens up its market to outside companies in attempt to
bring best technologies; 5-yr plan to 2015, business is active
participant
2015 – 2025: Hydro Economy
•
China is spinning its water cycle faster “more value/drop” –
Chinese solutions on global market take many by surprise
Hydro
More and more mega-cities & secondary cities
•
Consume more and more water, leads to increasing
water stress
•
Unsustainable water demand: impossible to treat
wastewater treatment by 2020, leads to industrial spills
2005
2010
2015
2025
Hydro
Beijing Olympic Games 2008
•
Positive press coverage doesn’t look at increasing tensions
between rural & urban (preferential treatment to urban and
industrial)
•
Shortly after Olympics, water-related incidents gain international
attention, e.g. car parts plant shut down due to over-extraction of
groundwater
2005
2010
2015
2025
Hydro
Huge Opportunities
•
2012 instead of single way forward, China embarks on period of economic
experimentation… government promotes innovation and supports best-in-class
technologies & water management policies. China opens up its market to outside
companies in attempt to bring best technologies.
•
When develop 5-yr plan to 2015, business is active participant
China ranks fourth in
the world for
renewable water
resources, but
because of its large
population, it has
only 1/4 of the global
average of water per
capita.
2005
2010
2015
2025
Hydro
Hydro Economy
•
China is spinning its water cycle faster: same amount of water used more
often “more value/drop”
•
By 2025: China known worldwide for cost-effective water solutions of all
scales
•
Ageing infrastructure in Europe: Chinese solutions on global market take
many by surprise – those companies involved early got the advantage
2005
2010
2015
2025
Photos:
Naval Safety Center, www.safetycenter.navy.mil
Unlocking Legacies of the Past
Unlocking Legacies of the Past
Rebound effects –
what you do with the energy you’ve saved
Rivers
Security Deficit
• By 2010, low-income and emerging economies
often lack safe drinking water – but if they want
clean water, they have to pay for it
• This leads to rich getting richer and poor getting
poorer – citizens distrusts governments
• Also in developed world, old water systems
results in greater costs – in 2015, for the 1st time,
middle-class households struggle to pay for water
bills
2005
2010
2015
2025
Rivers
Trust Deficit
« Water management is, by
definition, conflict
management. »
Worldwatch Institute, 2005
• Increase media coverage – increased
pressure on EU and US companies that operate
in developing countries: taking water from poor
for industrial, manufacturing or agribusiness
use, which leads to boycotting
• But many governments use water policy as a
way of asserting the right to deny access.
2005
2010
2015
2025
Rivers
2-gether
• Business understands water security is not only
efficiency & technology, but also policy – form publicprivate partnerships, PPP’s: the more business
participates in helping shape water policy, more likely
ensure own needs
• By 2010, recognize that water security closely tied to
energy security (& food, & health…): energy needed for
water, water needed for energy
2005
2010
2015
2025
Rivers
Security for all… in terms of quality and quantity
2005 – 2015: Security Deficit
•
Low-income and emerging economies lack safe
drinking water – if they want clean water, they have to
pay for it
2010 – 2015: Trust Deficit
•
Increase media coverage – increased pressure on EU
and US companies that operate in developing countries
2015 – 2020: Local Partnerships
•
Increased number of PPP’s, business help shaping
policy
Security Deficit
Ocean
Accounting for the whole system
2005 – 2015: Unintended Consequences
•
•
Asleep at the water wheel – more conferences, little action
Floods continue because of mismanagement of climate change and
mismanagement of ecosystems, deforestation in Asia, Rhine delta is
under pressure
2010 – 2015: Global Fair Water Movement
•
« Need global standards to guarantee right to clean water for all
humans on planet »
2015 – 2020: Water Footprints
•
Drive for bio-fuels in Southern Europe increases pressures on scarce
water resources – companies start to report on their water footprint
2020 – 2025: Networked Global Governance
•
Companies with large water footprints engage in virtual water trading on
basis of fully priced externalities - emergence of water-based economic
zones
Ocean
Unintended Consequences & Fair Movement
• Lulling to sleep & Floods continue
• 2010: Africa & L. America complain that water is being used by rich-country lifestyles
• Large international food company – outsource growing & processing of chickens to
Brazil – Brazilians suffer from exporting precious water while locals suffer shortages
• 2015: 5 confirmed cases of cholera in London: energizes Global Fair Water Movement
2005
2010
2015
2025
Ocean
Water Footprint
Approximately 37% of the
global population (over 2
billion people) lives within
100 km (60 miles) of a
coastline.
2005
2010
• 2010 – companies report total
volume of water used directly or
indirectly (total accounting) (need
tools)
2015
2025
Ocean
Networked Global Governance
• 2020: companies with large water footprints
engage in virtual water trading on basis of fully
priced externalities - emergence of water-based
economic zones
• Need market mechanism & governments
through legislation: Europe, US and Asia address
true value of water & complete cycle – new laws
2005
2010
2015
2025
Photo:
© UN Photo/ Sophia Paris
Asleep at the Water Wheel – Flooding
Picture:
© Food and Agriculture Organization of the
United Nations
Natural Phenomenon – Sea rise
Interconnected
Key Messages
• Technology is only part of the solution.
• Relevant innovation is driven locally.
• Business cannot buy its way out of water problems.
• Creating trust helps to secure the license to operate.
• Anticipate risks that stem from outside your current
business model.
• Growing water issues and complexity will drive up costs.
How do companies plan to use the scenarios?
• Test strategy (corporate, operations,
product?)
• Raise awareness of water issues
• Multi-stakeholder dialogue
Discussion in Groups – 30 minutes
Which legacies need to be unlocked to drive innovation?
Where else will cities face big water challenges?
What appropriate solutions can you see and reach?
What happens if the water ‘haves’ and ‘have not’ issues
are ignored?
What constitutes ‘fair water’ uses and who will decide?
How can water conflicts be avoided?
What happens when the ‘whole system’ isn’t taken into
account?
How can virtual water be made more transparent?
What are the tensions and trade-offs in managing water
resources and allocation at local and global levels?
Extra questions for discussion on ‘H’ – Hydro
• Which legacies need to be unlocked to enable more sustainable water
practices and more appropriate solutions?
• Will further urbanization intensify the water crisis, or does it provide an
opportunity to find a solution?
•
If the quality, availability, or cost of water for your suppliers, yourselves, or
your customers/consumers changed significantly (x2, x10) in the next 5, 10, or
20 years, how would your business be affected?
• How can businesses be encouraged to see water-related problems and
constraints as opportunities for innovation and value creation?
• What are the dilemmas raised by the multifaceted efficiency challenge (more
value per drop, more drops for less, less pollution and energy per drop, more
jobs per drop)?
• Which sectors will need to take the lead in partnering with municipal and
national authorities to ensure city solutions are agreed and implemented on a
sufficiently fast and large scale?
• Where else are governments and their societies likely to respond with marketenabled solutions?
Extra questions for discussion on ‘2’ – Rivers
•
•
Whose water needs and what water uses will matter most?
Will business be seen as a legitimate stakeholder in water allocation
discussions and disputes?
•
Who might be new partners or stakeholders in judging your business
operations or in providing new and better solutions to grow your
business?
• Can all conflicts over water be avoided – and, if not, where will the
fracture lines first appear?
• To what extent can the legacy of corruption be overcome in water
management?
• How do we allocate water fairly for all users in a community, not just
the highest bidders?
Extra questions for discussion on ‘O’ – Ocean
•
To what extent can human and business activity adapt to new and
evolving constraints imposed by the ‘big’ – or hydrological – water cycle?
•
Can you assess your water footprint? What measures do you have in
place to monitor water use? What do your competitors do? What is best
practice?
•
How will formal institutional arrangements give a voice to the
ecosystem?
• When we solve a water problem upstream, how can we avoid
unintended consequences downstream?
• How can more investment be mobilized to finance new innovative
schemes for local water solutions?
Business-focused questions
• How is your business dependent on water for its success today – upstream, midstream,
downstream?
• Do you know and understand your water supply, treatment, and disposal context? Do you know the
influential institutional and/or governmental individuals who deal with water in your business
community?
• Can you assess your water footprint? What measures do you have in place to monitor water use?
What do your competitors do? What is best practice?
• If the quality, availability, or cost of water for your suppliers, yourselves, or your
customers/consumers changed significantly (x2, x10) in the next 5, 10, or 20 years, how would your
business be affected? Do you consider water in your long-term strategic planning?
• What are the generic opportunities and threats in each scenario? Who is the prime mover – that is,
which organizations and institutions are setting the standard?
• Reading the scenarios – ask yourself not “whether”, but “what if” – how would your business be
affected if this future came true? Which aspects of each scenario are particularly relevant to your
products and services? What other water dimensions need to be added? Which water challenges
and opportunities seem most relevant to you as a citizen? A consumer? A businessperson?
• Considering the scenarios as a set, what do you now think are the biggest risks and opportunities
for your business’ operations, investment decisions, products, or services in an increasingly waterstressed world?
• Who might be new partners or stakeholders in judging your business operations or in providing
new and better solutions to grow your business?