April 7, 2015

Introduction
The Independent National Electoral Commission is implementing an Electoral Risk Management (ERM) project to support its activities during the 2015 national and State elections using the Electoral Risk Management Tool (ERMTool). In the run-up to the elections, the ERM team identified and analysed a series of risk factors and indicators covering the pre-election period. The subsequent risk alerts were shared with the INEC leadership to help improve their situational awareness in the lead-up to election.
For the March 28 Presidential and National Assembly elections, the ERM team identified a number of election day and post election factors to analyse during and immediately after the election. The team moved into the INEC situation room on March 27 and remained in place until the announcement of final election results on March 31/April 1. During this time, the team produced a series of risk alerts that were shared with the INEC leadership. This report is a compilation of all risk alerts produced – along with analysis and recommendations aimed at improving the conduct of the State elections scheduled for April 11, 2015.
Methodology and Data Sources :
The ERM team established a desk in the INEC situation room from March 27-March 31. The team was composed of seven INEC staff members and was supervised by the Chief Technical Adviser to the INEC Chairman. The team received additional support from the International IDEA programme officer as well as the IFES Electoral Security Expert. The team developed risk alerts by collecting data from ERM desk officers, INEC supervisors in the field, the
Election Operation Supports Center (EOSC) desk in the situation room, the INEC Citizens Call Centre (ICCC) in the situation room as well as through online sources such as the media and social media (for incidents of electoral violence).
To source data in the field, particularly on election day, the ERM team used the ERM desk officers and INEC supervisors. A plan to collect data from the field through online questionnaires was only partially successful due to the lack of internet connectivity in the situation room on election day. As a result, the majority of the information obtained from the field was via telephone interviews at regular intervals using pre-prepared questionnaires to obtain information. It should be noted that data obtained from the field is not necessarily comprehensive, but represents the information Field
Officers had at hand at the time of the telephone interviews.
Any information obtained via social media platforms to identify incidents of election-related violence were only included once the information had been confirmed or verified by an official or secondary source in the media or from official Statements.
Numerical values and Risk Values:
The values in each of the maps were developed in the election day operational plan developed prior to election day.

5 LGAs reporting that they do not have incident report forms
ERM RISK MAP ON
AVAILABILITY OF ELECTION
MATERIALS
AS AT 2pm
Mapped by INEC ERM Team on
28 th March
Reported shortages of ballot papers across the
State
Reported shortages of material across the State
Reports of shortages of results forms in Ukwa
West (whole LGA)
RISK LEVEL
LOW: No reported shortages
MEDIUM: Isolated reported shortages
HIGH: Major shortages
Data source:
ERM State desk officers based in State Election
Operations Support Centre (phone interviews)

ERM RISK MAP ON
PRESENCE OF SECURITY
PERSONNEL 28 th March
Mapped by INEC ERM Team on
28 th March
RISK LEVEL
LOW: No reported absences of personnel
MEDIUM: 0-1% of PUs reporting absence of personnel
HIGH: More than 1% of PUs reporting absence of personnel
Data source:
ERM State desk officers based in State Election Operations
Support Centre (phone interviews)

ERM RISK MAP ON
START OF VOTING
AS AT 5pm
Mapped by INEC ERM Team on
28 th March
House of Reps
Election
Postponed till
Sunday 29th 2015
No election in Udu LGA
RISK LEVEL
LOW: All PUs voting as of 5pm
MEDIUM: 75-100% of PUs voting
HIGH: Less than 75% of PUs voting
Data source:
ERM State desk officers based in State Election
Operations Support Centre (phone interviews)

ERM RISK MAP ON
AVAILABILITY OF
MATERIAL AS OF 5PM
Mapped by INEC ERM Team on
28 th March
Reported shortages of ballot papers across the
State
RISK LEVEL
LOW: No reported shortages
MEDIUM: Isolated shortages
HIGH: Major shortages
Data source:
ERM State desk officers based in State Election Operations
Support Centre (phone interviews)

Anambra
Awka-Ibom
ERM RISK MAP ON
SUCCESSFUL
ACCREDITATION
Mapped by INEC ERM Team on
28 th March
RISK LEVEL
LOW (0-1% OF PU REPORTING AUTHENTICATION FAILURE )
MEDIUM (1-5% OF PUS REPORTING AUTHENTICATION
FAILURE)
HIGH (6-100% OF PUS REPORTING AUTHENTICATION
FAILURE )
High percentage of failed finger print authentication of votes in majority of the States. But no issues reported with voter card verification as of 1PM
Data source:
ERM Desk Officers in the State

ERM RISK MAP ON
CLOSE OF
VOTING AS OF 6PM
Mapped by INEC-ERM Team
29 th March 2015
RISK LEVEL
LOW (VOTING FINISHED IN ALL PUS )
MEDIUM (VOTING FINISHED IN 80-99% OF PUS)
HIGH (VOTING FINISHED IN 0-79% OF PUS)
Data source:
ERM Desk Officers in the State

ERM RISK MAP ON NUMBER
OF PUS STILL COUNTING
VOTES AS OF 8PM ON MARCH
28
Mapped by INEC-ERM Team
29 th March 2015
RISK LEVEL
LOW (COUNTING FINISHED IN ALL PUS)
MEDIUM (COUNTING FINISHED IN 80-99% OF PUS)
HIGH (COUNTING FINISHED IN 0-79% OF PUS)
Data source:
ERM Desk Officers in the State

KOGI
VALID VOTES: 421,328
INVALID VOTES: 17,959
OYO
VALID VOTES: 928,606
INVALID VOTES: 47,254
OSUN
VALID VOTES: 642,615
INVALID VOTES: 20,758
OGUN
VALID VOTES: 533,17
INVALID VOTES: 26,441
ONDO
VALID VOTES: 561,056
INVALID VOTES: 21,379
EKITI
VALID VOTES: 300,691
INVALID VOTES: 8,754
NASSARAWA
VALID VOTES: 511,547
INVALID VOTES: 10,094
FCT
VALID VOTES: 306,805
INVALID VOTES: 9210
ENUGU
VALID VOTES: 306,805
INVALID VOTES: 9210
ERM RISK MAP ON
COLLATION OF
ELECTION RESULTS
AT 1PM
Developed by INEC-ERM
Team
30 th March 2015
RISK LEVEL
LOW (StateS THAT HAVE DELIVERED
THE RESULT SHEET)
MEDIUM (StateS YET TO DELIVER
RESULT SHEET)

th
th

Boko Haram attack voters in Ngalda
LGA, 3 people reported killed.
ERM RISK MAP ON
ELECTION DAY VIOLENT
INCIDENTS
AS OF 4PM
Mapped by INEC ERM Team on
28 th March
1
Reports of violent incidents in Katcha
LGA, Ward 1, Unit
005 and 007
2
PDP member was murdered in Ikirun,
Ifelodun LGA of
Osun State by unknown gunmen
3
1
2
2
1 1
1
3
One person shot dead at Eleme LGA by an army official
1
1
Boko Haram attack two PUs in Birnin
Bolawa and Birin
Fulani in Nafada district. At least 2 people reported dead
Gunmen shoot at a team of policemen and military police escorting INEC officials to their PU at Ikwerre LGA
Explosions at a PU in Umuokpara
Primary School, ward 1, Awka,
Anambra
#
#
Key:
- Number of
Incidents
- Bombing incident
Number of incidents as at 4pm
20 incidents
Data Source: ERM State Desk Officers based in
State Election Operations Support Centre, Media reports

Snatching of ballot box at gunpoint in
AMAC, Gui unit
7 election officials beaten and materials snatched at Moba LGA, Ward
11.
Two people shot dead at Eleme LGA.
3
1
2
3
2
1
3
2
1
4
1 2
1
1
Boko Haram attack voters in Ngalda
LGA, 3 people reported killed.
1
ERM RISK MAP ON
ELECTION DAY VIOLENT
INCIDENTS
AS OF 7PM
Mapped by INEC ERM Team on
28 th March
1
1
Boko Haram attack two PUs in Birnin
Bolawa and Birin
Fulani in Nafada district. At least 2 people reported dead
Gunmen shoot at a team of policemen and military police escorting INEC officials to their PU at Ikwerre LGA
1
Poll pfficial held hostage in Yola
North, Doubeli ward, PU 001
Threat and destruction of materials before voting proceeded at
PU 18/21/02/013 and 18/03/03/010
#
Key:
- Number of
Incidents
- Bombing incident
Number of incidents as at 7pm
31 incidents
Data Source: ERM State Desk Officers based in
State Election Operations Support Centre,
Media reports

1
4
Snatching of ballot box at gunpoint in
AMAC, Gui unit
2
1
7 election officials beaten and materials snatched at
Moba LGA,
Ward 11.
3
Two people shot dead at Eleme LGA.
1
2
3
2
1
4
1 2
1
1
1
1
Boko Haram attack voters in Ngalda
LGA, 3 people reported killed.
ERM RISK MAP ON
ELECTION DAY VIOLENT
INCIDENTS
AS OF 8PM
Mapped by INEC ERM Team on
28 th March
1
2
Gunmen shoot at a team of policemen and military police escorting INEC officials to their PU at Ikwerre LGA
Boko Haram attack two PUs in Birnin
Bolawa and Birin
Fulani in Nafada district. At least 2 people reported dead
1
Poll official held hostage in Yola
North, Doubeli ward, PU 001
Threat and destruction of materials before voting proceeded at
PU 18/21/02/013 and 18/03/03/010
Key:
# - Number of
Incidents
- Bombing incident
Number of incidents as at 8pm
35 incidents
Data Source: ERM State Desk Officers based in
State Election Operations Support Centre, Media reports

1
1
1
2
1
2
1
1
30 March: Female members of APC, protested in Port
Harcourt calling for cancellation of the election
ERM RISK MAP ON
POST- ELECTION VIOLENT
INCIDENTS
FROM MARCH 29 th to
30th
Mapped by INEC ERM Team on
30 th March
30 March: A protester is shot dead by a military officer at INEC headquarters
Bauchi
There have been reports of postelection protests in Oyo, Osun,
Enugu, Abia,
Bauchi, Akwa
Ibom, Plateau and
Rivers State .
Key:
# - Number of
Incidents
Number of Post
Election violent incidents
10 incidents
Data Source: ERM State Desk Officers,
Media reports

th

Bauchi
1) Reports that SPOs ran away with results sheets but they were replaced and the culprits arrested in Bauchi LGA (EC8A)
Mapped by INEC ERM Team on
29 th March
Taraba
1) Reports that voting materials were snatched from officials of a PU in Kasim
Lamido LGA
2) Reports that election materials were snatched and burnt and INEC officials were beaten at RA 04 PU 005 in Ibbi LGA
Adamawa
1) Reports that results sheets were snatched
(EC8B) in Pallam RA, Madaggali LGA
2) Reports of snatching of sensitive material in
Numan LGA RA 10 PU 005
Data source:
ERM State desk officers; INEC State supervisors;
RISK LEVEL
LOW: No reports
HIGH: Reports of theft

FCT
1) Reports of ballot box snatching at AMAC (PU 007) Gui
Mapped by INEC ERM Team on
29 th March
Nassarawa
1) Reports of materials hijacked and results cancelled in
Agwantashi ward in Obi LGA.
2) Reports that election was cancelled due to the theft of sensitive material in Adudoimo PU in Obi LGA
Niger
1) Reports that in 10 polling units, ballot boxes were hijacked and burnt in Gbako LGA. The following PUs affected: 26/08/04/003, 26/08/04/004,
26/08/04/005, 26/08/04/008, 26/08/05/004,
26/08/06/001, 26/08/06/003, 26/08/06/006 and
26/08/10/004
Plateau
1) Reports of card readers destroyed in Shaubutu and
Danto wards in Riyom LGA
2) Reports that all polling material including card readers were destroyed in Bun Ward, Riyom
LGA
Benue
1) Reports of burnt card reader in Nyiev ward in Guma LGA
2) Reports of results sheet snatching at
Gwer East LGA (PU 07/07/05/004)
3) Reports that 6 PUs in a ward did not vote
4) Reports that office INEC was using in
Logo LGA was burnt.
5) Reports that 2 INEC Ad Hoc staff were killed.
Kogi
1) Reports that results were burnt at the
Ofu LGA collation centre
Data source:
ERM State desk officers; INEC State supervisors;
RISK LEVEL
LOW: No reports
HIGH: Reports of theft

KATSTINA
1.
2 ballot box snatched in
Sokoto North LGA
SOKOTO
1.
2 ballot box snatched in Sokoto North LGA
2.
2 incident of Ballot paper snatching in
Shagari LGA
3.
2 Smart Card Reader incident damaged in
Sokoto North LGA
Mapped by INEC ERM Team on
29 th March
KANO
1.
Snatching of SCR at
Minjibir LGA 19/30/012
2.
Ballot papers destroyed at Rogo LGA
19/20/003
3.
Ballot box Burnt at
Kabo LGA 19/20/00
KADUNA
1.
Ballot paper snatched before counting in PU
018, RA 05 in LGA
Data source:
ERM State desk officers; INEC State supervisors;
RISK LEVEL
LOW: No reports
HIGH: Reports of theft

Anambra
1) No data
Imo
1) Reports that material was snatched at Mbaitoli
Mapped by INEC ERM Team on
29 th March
Ebonyi
1) Reports that the vehicle conveying POs and APOs was vandalised and electoral materials snatched for PUs 001-006 in
Ikwo LGA, Expanwudele 004
Abia
1) Reports that results sheets were not released to many PUs.
2) In Aba South LGA, no collation officers were deployed to the field.
3) In Osisioma and Isiala Ngwa LGAs reports of thefts of ballot boxes. Additional reports that trained SPOs and NYSC members were not used/replaced.
4) Reports of ballot snatching in Aruchukwu
01/03/06/004
5) Reports of fake collation officers with fake phone numbers in most LGAs
6) Reports of widespread snatching of ballots and results forms.
7) No E-tracking and forwarding of scanned form
ECSA in Ohafia, Arochukwu, Umahia North and
Umhia South LGAs
Data source:
ERM State desk officers; INEC State supervisors;
RISK LEVEL
LOW: No reports
HIGH: Reports of theft

Edo
1) In LGA Igueben: Ward 9 Unit 1 & 2;
Ward 10 unit 4; Ward 5 unit 4: fighting led to the prevention of fighting preventing results from coming out
Commission investigating
2) Reports of violence breaking out in
Akoko LGA in RA9, PU 011 which forced poll officials to run for protection and they abandoned senstive materials.
When they returned ballots were thumbprinted so the election was not conducted.
Mapped by INEC ERM Team on
29 th March
Cross River
1) In Akankpa LGA, where voting was due to take place on 29 March, ballot papers for 2 wards were hijacked before reaching the PUs. The ballots were reportedly pre-marked at the LGA Chairman’s house.
2) In Calabar municipality, 4 results sheet were stolen by a Corper. The collation officer declared the results missing. The results were later recovered, but the CO refused to accept them. The 4 results sheets would change the outcome of the election and result in a victory for the Labour party. Labour party supporters are currently protesting outside the INEC LGA office and making threats.
Bayelsa
1) Reports of snatching of materials at
Yenagoa, Ward 5, unit 15 and 16
Data source:
ERM State desk officers; INEC State supervisors;
RISK LEVEL
LOW: No reports
HIGH: Reports of theft

Reports of theft or snatching of ballots, ballot boxes, card readers, results sheets and other sensitive material
OSUN
1) Reports of snatching of ballot box at Ife South LGA, Ward 10, unit 003.
EKITI
1) Reports of snatching of 5 card readers at Moba LGA, Ward 7,
Unit 009. The card readers were later recovered
Mapped by INEC-ERM team on 29March 2015
Data source:
ERM state desk officers; INEC state supervisors.
ONDO
1) Reports of snatching of ballot box at Ilaje
LGA, Ward 5, unit 17.
2) Report of snatching of a card reader at
Akure South LGA, Ward 9
RISK LEVEL
LOW: No reports
HIGH: Reports of theft

Mapped by INEC-ERM team on 31March 2015
National Average: 47.09%
Data source: INEC
Legend
Less than 30%
31%-40%
41%-50%
51%-60%
Over 60%

National Average: 47.09%
Legend
% % turnout
Less than 30%
31%-40%
41%-50%
51%-60%
Over 60%
Mapped by INEC-ERM team on 31
March 2015
Data source: INEC
Note: percentages have been rounded to the nearest whole number

LEGEND
VALID VOTES
REJECTED
VOTES
677,003 38,119
834,259 42,110
761,022 19,159
1,449,426 32,288
1,037,564 34,325
2,128,821 43,626
1,617,482 32,719
473,796 17,971
460,599 12,845
1,020,338 19,437
440,080 21,321
813,671 31,012
636,018 25,192
Data source:
INEC
881,352 47,254 982,388
18,30
4
642,615 20,758
533,172 26,441
421,328 17,959
500,451 22,334
1,443,686 52,289
561,056 21,379
702,964 28,957
1,267,773 17,075
511,547 10,094
683,264 19,867
579,677 23,039
306,805 9,210
573,173 12,459
450,514 15,392
688,584 14,825
391,045 10,004
367,067 4,672
1,565,461 `19,307
1,017,064 11,487
Developed by INEC-ERM Team 31 th March 2015

National Total Rejected
Ballots: 844,519
National Percentage Rejected
Ballots: 2.87%
Mapped by INEC-ERM team on 2 April
Data source: INEC
Note: Percentages have been rounded to the nearest whole number
Legend
%#
% rejected votes
Below 3%
3-4%
5% and above

ELECTIONS CANCELLED:ANKA,BIRNIN
MAGAJI,BUKKUYUM,GUSAU,KAURA,
NAMODA,MARADUN,MARU,ZURMI
PUS INVOLVED:31
VOTES AFFECTED: 13,965
ELECTIONS AFFECTED: IGABI, KACHIA,
KAGARKO, KUDAN, SABON
GARI,SANGA,SOBA,ZANGON KATAF
PUS INVOLVED:38
VOTES AFFECTED:27,482
ELECTIONS AFFECTED: BWARI, MUNICIPAL
PUS INVOLVED: 3
VOTES AFFECTED: 7,266
AFFECTED: AKWANGA,AWE,DOMA,
KARU,KEANA,KEFFI,KOKONA,LAFIA,
NASARAWA,NASARAWA EGGON,OBI,TOTO,
WAMBA
PU AFFECTED: 32
TOTAL: 79,386
ELECTIONS CANCELLED: SAKI WEST, AFIJIO,
IBADAN NORTH
PUS INVOLVED:4
VOTES AFFECTED:1850
ELECTIONS CANCELLED:AKOKO EDO,ETSAKO
EAST,ETSAKO
WEST,IGUEBEN,IKPOBA:OKHA,OREDO,
ORHIONMON
PUS INVOLVED:275
VOTES AFFECTED:148,980
ELECTIONS
AFFECTED:AKKO,BALANGA,BILLIRI,DUKKU,FUN
AKAYE,GOMBE,KALTUNGO,NAFADA,
YALMALTU/DEBA
PUS INVOLVED: 73
VOTES AFFECTED:32,511
ERM RISK MAP ON
CANCELLED ELECTIONS IN
POLLING
UNITS
ELECTIONS CANCELLED:AKOKO EDO,ETSAKO
EAST,ETSAKO
WEST,IGUEBEN,IKPOBA:OKHA,OREDO,
ORHIONMON
PUS INVOLVED:275
VOTES AFFECTED:148,980
CANCELLED:ALKALERI,BOGORO,DARAZO,
GAMAWA,ITAS/GADAU,KIRFI,MISAU,TAFAWA
BALEWA,TORO,WARJI
PUS:54
VOTES AFFECTED:27,947
ELECTIONS
AFFECTED:AKKO,BALANGA,BILLIRI,DUKKU,FUN
AKAYE,GOMBE,KALTUNGO,NAFADA,
YALMALTU/DEBA
PUS INVOLVED: 73
VOTES AFFECTED:32,511
ELECTIONS CANCELLED:DEMSA,FUFORE,GIREI,
MADAGALI,MAIHA,MUBI NORTH,NUMAN
PUS INVOLVED:37
VOTES AFFECTED: 18,114
ELECTIONS CANCELLED: ABAKALIKI, IKWO,
OHAOZARA, ONICHA
PUS INVOLVED: 38
VOTES AFFECTED: 23,551
ELECTIONS AFFECTED: ISU (UMUNDUGBA),
OWERRI NORTH, AHIAZU MBAISE, EZINIHITE
MBAISE
PUS INVOLVED: 54
VOTES AFFECTED: 30,353
Mapped by INEC-ERM Team 31 th March 2015
Data source:
INEC

Mapped by INEC-ERM team on 2 April
Data source: INEC
Note: States without values recorded no cancellations
National Total: 689,498
Legend: votes affected by cancellation
# Number of votes affected
Less than 1,000 votes
1,001 – 5,000 votes
5,001 – 10,000 votes
10,001 – 25,000 votes
25,001 – 50,000 votes
50,001 – 100,000 votes
Over 100,000 votes

National Total:2,314,407
Mapped by INEC-ERM team on 2 April
Data source: INEC
Legend: voters who were accredited but did not vote
N Number of voters
Less than 1,000 voters
25,001 – 50,000 voters
50,001 – 100,000 voters
Over 100,000 voters

Mapped by INEC-ERM team on 3 April
Data source: INEC
States won by APC
States won by PDP

Mapped by INEC-ERM team on 3 April
Data source: INEC
Legend
States won by APC (over 65% of the vote)
States won by APC (56-65% of the vote)
States won by APC (55% or less of the vote)
States won by PDP (55% or less of the vote)
States won by PDP (56-65% of the vote)
States won by PDP (over 65% of the vote)

Mapped by INEC-ERM team on 3 April
Data source: INEC
Note: All percentages have been rounded to nearest whole number
Note: In States that do not display % vote obtained by other parties this means those parties obtained less thatn 1% combined
Legend
% % vote obtained by APC
% % vote obtained by PDP
% % vote obtained by all other parties
States won by APC (over 65% of the vote)
States won by APC (56-65% of the vote)
States won by APC (55% or less of the vote)
States won by PDP (55% or less of the vote)
States won by PDP (56-65% of the vote)
States won by PDP (over 65% of the vote)

Analysis and Recommendations
Availability of election material
Overall, election material was available in sufficient quantities throughout the country although there were some States such as Abia, Adamawa, Kano and Sokoto that reported systematic shortages. In addition to this, there were widespread isolated reports of shortages of the following material: ballot papers, results sheets and incident forms. While these were not systematic they may have had an impact on the conduct of the vote. In addition to this, all observer reports – both domestic and international – noted that INEC officials and/or material arrived late and contributed to the late opening of polling units throughout the country. This trend created bottlenecks and resulted in the late start of accreditation, voting, counting and possibly contributed to the high number of persons who were accredited, but did not vote (2,314,407 persons). The following recommendations are aimed at the logistics department at all levels:
• Ensure all election material is available in sufficient quantity by Wednesday 8 March at the latest to allow sufficient time for INEC to make up any shortfalls.
• Develop checklists to enable INEC staff to verify the availability of election material at each stage of the logistics chain.
• Ensure transport plans are in place to deliver election material in time for their deployment to polling units.
• Ensurethat RAC centers are properly put into use and that RAC supervisors are adequately prepared to coordinate the distribution of election material in time for poll opening.
Presence of security personnel
Overall, there were very few reports of polling units without security personnel and a similar plan should be employed for the governorship elections. Despite this, there were incidents of election related violence and theft of election material (see below). The following recommendations are aimed at the ICCES:
• Ensure that security personnel are reinforced in States that recorded incidents of election-related violence (see below).
• Increase the presence of security personnel in States that are high risk ahead of the governorship elections.
• Ensure security personnel remain deployed in populous areas during the collation period and after the announcement of election results.
Card Readers
Despite a few high-profile incidents, overall there were very few reports of verification failure across the country. There were however delays created by poor configuration of card readers, the non-activation of SIM cards, and the non-availability of card readers at the start of accreditation. In addition to this, there were widespread reports of card reader authentication failures . While some incidents of authentication failure may be related to data capture during voter registration, other problems may have been related to the lack of capacity of the users. The following recommendations are for the governorship elections and are mostly directed at the ICT department at national and State level:
• Ensure all card readers are properly configured and contain activated SIM cards through testing each card reader before deployment.
• Recharge batteries ahead of the governorship elections.
• Ensure functional card readers are available in sufficient quantities.
• Prepare a short flyer for poll workers with basic instructions on the use of the card readers with basic troubleshooting tips for common issues that can be easily resolved, tips could include when and how to use the incident form.
• Ensure poll workers are aware of the purpose of incident forms and that the forms are available in sufficient quantities to avoid long delays.
• If possible, provide additional training to poll workers on the use of card readers.

Election-related violence
Overall, the March 28 elections were peaceful, particularly when put into the context of Nigeria’s security challenges due to the insurgency and its history of violent elections. However, there were a number (96) of high profile incidents, alongside other (more widespread) reports of intimidation of
INEC ad hoc staff. In some areas, these incidents led to the cancellation of elections. The following recommendations are aimed at improving security and are directed at INEC and security agencies:
• Reinforce the presence of security personnel in places that experienced cancellations due to violence and other areas that experienced violence.
• Ensure security after election-day at collation centres and populous areas including after the announcement of election results.
• Prosecute those responsible for election-related violence during the March 28 elections.
Theft/destruction of election material
Overall, most of the reports of theft and/or destruction of election material appear to have been isolated incidents. However there are signs that some INEC ad hoc staff were implicated in things like the theft of results forms. In view of the upcoming elections, it is recommended that:
• INEC ad hoc staff are reminded of their roles and responsibilities as well possible sanctions for electoral offences.
• Identify any INEC personnel involved in any incidents during the March 28 elections and ensure they are (i) blacklisted from the INEC database, and (ii) prosecuted for their alleged offences..
Rejected votes
Overall there were 844,519 rejected votes during the March 28 election. While this figure is not high compared to other elections in Nigeria and around the world, certain areas recorded a higher percentage of rejected votes – these include: Enugu, Kebbi, Kwara, Ogun, Oyo and Sokoto.
• Reinforce voter education, particularly in the above mentioned States to ensure voters are aware of how to mark their ballots properly.
Cancelled elections
During the March 28 elections, cancellations affected just over 1,000 polling units representing over 600,000 votes. The most affected States were Benue, Delta,
Edo and Nasarawa (over 50,000 votes affected) and to a lesser extent Bauchi, Gombe, Kaduna and Niger (over 25,000 votes affected). The reasons for the cancellations are not known but are broadly related to the absence of material and/or personnel; security; lack of poll worker capacity to correctly complete forms; and election fraud. Ahead of the April 11 election, INEC should:
• Identify the reasons for cancellations and where appropriate, put in place measures to ensure this is not repeated.
• In cases where logistical arrangements led to cancellation, ensure plans are in place so that elections hold.
Difference between accredited voters and votes cast
A very high number of persons who were accredited did not end up casting their vote (2,314,407 potential voters). This issue was widespread, but Kano, Lagos, Oyo and Sokoto were particularly affected. Two of these States are the most populous in in the country and Lagos recorded and this may have been due to impatience due to slow accreditation and/or the late start of accreditation. INEC should:
• Rectify logistical issues that may have contributed to slow accreditation and voting.
• Remind poll workers to manage queues effectively and use incident forms after 2 authentication failures (rather that attempting multiple times) to speed up the process.