Economic Minute
November
13, 2014
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Dennis.Hoffman@asu.edu
Director Seidman Research Institute
ASU and Notre Dame
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“No. 11 Sun Devils beat
No. 8 Irish 55-31”
Coach Kelly calls it the
“Debacle in the Desert”
2
Reflections on 1966
from one observer… “In 1966, Notre Dame head
coach Ara Parseghian made a decision that
would rattle the constituency of the sport”
He instructed his players to run out the
clock and play for the tie rather than try to win
The next week the Irish thrashed USC while
Michigan State’s season was over thanks
To the Big Ten’s “no repeat” rule for the Rose Bowl
Notre Dame was awarded the “national
championship” So in 1966, Playing it safe, or
complacency paid off
The strategy was dubbed
“playing it Parseghian”
and “playing it
Parseghian” paid off
In 1966 for the Irish
3
Arizona: A Leading Growth State
Decade
Rank
Population
Growth (%)
Employment
Growth (%)
Income
Growth (%)
1960 - 1970
3rd
3rd
4th
1970 - 1980
2nd
3rd
3rd
1980 - 1990
3rd
3rd
5th
1990 - 2000
2nd
2nd
3rd
2000 - 2007
2nd
3rd
4th
2008 - 2010
14th
49th
44th
2013
8th
10th
18th
Annual Growth Rates from U.S. Bureau of Census; U.S. BLS; U. S. BEA
Arizona Job Growth
th
14
YTD 2014
(AZ Jobs Up by 1.9% - 25 yr. Average is 3.9%)
10
23
6
1
40
45
2
9
4
14
8
7
U. S. Bureau of Labor
Statistics
49
State Rank by YTD
Percent Change – Sept.
Top 10 Growth States
3
5
Year to date Nonfarm Job Growth by State
(thous of jobs)
State
Subhead text goes here
rank
North Dakota
% growth number
jobs
1
4.55
20.04
2
3.58
41.78 1,209.36
3
3.26
362.61 11,494.28
4
3.1
39.77 1,321.19
5
2.94
221.61 7,753.76
6
2.82
46.94 1,710.03
Colorado
7
2.75
65.21 2,434.14
Delaware
8
2.51
10.68
California
9
2.24
337.43 15,400.56
10
2.19
65.24 3,040.57
14
1.94
48.61 2,548.14
Nevada
2011 Timeline detail content
2012 Timeline detail content
2013 Timeline detail content
2014 Timeline detail content
Texas
Utah
Florida
Oregon
Washington
Arizona
6
Eighth in the West
460.48
435.58
Year to date Goods Prod. Job Growth by State
(thous of jobs)
Subhead text
Stategoes here
rank
North Dakota
1
2011 Timeline detail content
Florida
2
Nevada
3
2012 Timeline detail content
Utah
2013 Timeline detail content 4
Colorado
5
2014 Timeline detail content
Alaska
6
Minnesota
7
Delaware
8
Texas
9
Indiana
10
Arizona
7
47
%
growth number jobs
9.97
8.4 92.66
6.71 46.32 736.64
6.33
7.1 119.35
5.17 10.56 214.95
4.79 13.85 303.21
4.26
2.18 53.24
3.91 16.26 431.88
3.52
1.57 46.31
3.43 60.83 1834.37
3.25 20.19 642.05
-0.68
-1.99 289.91
Year to date Construction Job Growth by State
(thous of jobs)
Subhead text
Stategoes here
rank
Nevada
1
Timeline detail content
2011
Florida
2
2012 Timeline detail content
Utah
3
Minnesota
2013 Timeline detail content 4
North Dakota
2014 Timeline detail content 5
Colorado
6
Kansas
7
California
8
Oregon
9
Connecticut
10
Arizona
8
39
%
growth number
10.98
6.13
10.85 39.19
8.74
6.36
8.04
7.94
8.04
2.59
5.83
7.29
5.75
3.22
5.7 35.94
5.54
4.03
5.35
2.83
-1.03
jobs
62
400.46
79.07
106.72
34.8
132.3
59.26
666.26
76.88
55.81
-1.27 121.13
Year to date NonFarm Job Growth by Metro
(thous of jobs)
Metro
Subhead text goes here
rank
% growth number
jobs
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
1
3.66
38.68 1096.31
Houston-Sugar2011
Land-Baytown,
TX detail content
Timeline
2
3.47
96.41 2870.99
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
2012
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
Timeline detail content
2013
Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
detail content
2014 Timeline
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario,
CA
3
3.42
105.02 3177.57
4
3.02
70.42 2403.24
5
2.87
29.51 1059.51
6
2.78
33.83 1250.57
Denver-Aurora-Broomfield, CO
7
2.77
35.68 1322.79
San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA
8
2.61
54.52 2145.98
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
9
2.59
46.04 1822.99
San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA
10
2.4
31.31 1337.71
Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ 9th in the West
12
2.24
40.22 1838.72
Timeline detail content
9
Year to date Goods Prod. Job Growth by Metro
(thous of jobs)
Metro
Subhead text goes here
rank
% growth number
jobs
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
1
6.77
5.98
94.24
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano
Beach,
FL
content
2011 Timeline detail
2
5.45
9.23
178.72
San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA
3
4.76
7.4
162.76
4
4.23
23.06
568.4
5
4.04
8.47
218.06
6
3.86
6.08
163.52
Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
7
3.69
6.17
173.1
Denver-Aurora-Broomfield, CO
8
3.62
5.17
148.04
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
9
3.55
4.12
120.13
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA
10
3.5
8.43
249.09
Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ
27
-0.74
-1.59
212.16
2012
Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX
Timeline detail content
2013
San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA
Timeline detail content
2014
Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor,
OH
Timeline detail content
10
Year to date Construction Job Growth by Metro
(thous of jobs)
San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA
1
9.62
5.8
66.11
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
2
8.85
4.43
54.53
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA
3
8.45
16.18
207.57
4
8.14
7.47
99.17
5
6.41
5.98
99.18
6
6.28
5.68
96.12
7
6.08
3.08
53.72
Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX
8
4.47
8.43
196.91
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
9
4.4
3.01
71.4
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
10
3.08
1.72
57.57
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
11
3.05
2.7
91.13
Pittsburgh, PA
12
1.87
0.99
53.76
Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL-IN-WI
13
1.6
2.37
149.87
Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ
14
-1.18
-1.09
91.53
Subhead text goes here
2011
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
detail content
2012 Timeline
San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont,
CA
2013 Timeline
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta,
GA detail content
Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro,
Timeline detail content
2014 OR-WA
Timeline detail content
11
rd
3
Phoenix
Among Metro
Net Migration Destinations
(But Phoenix Gained 96,000 in 2006)
Top Ten Metro Destinations: 2013
1. Houston
(55,620)
6. San Antonio
(22,392)
2. Dallas (32,641)
7. Charlotte (21,382)
3. Phoenix (32,014) 8. Nashville (17,975)
4. Denver (26,536)
9. Seattle (17,926)
5. Austin (25,908
10. Orlando (17,316)
U. S. Census Bureau
So Where do we go from here??
• Simply Wait it out
• “Play it Parseghian”, AZ always comes back
• Market the State
• So what are the key assets?
• Cut more Taxes
• Which ones?
• How do we pay the bills?
• Economic Development Strategy
• Workforce and Skills
• Affordable land and labor
• Most infrastructure in place
• Can we afford to be complacent this time?
• Will “playing it Parseghian” work in 2014?
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