MCCORMICK SRI: GOING DEEP WITH
CENSUS DEMOGRAPHIC AND
ECONOMIC DATA
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
ESTIMATES FROM THE
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR,
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS (BLS)
Tom R. Rex, Associate Director, Center for
Competitiveness and Prosperity Research,
L. William Seidman Research Institute,
W. P. Carey School of Business,
Arizona State University
00:00
Overview
• The employment and unemployment estimates
produced by the BLS for states and substate
areas result from a cooperative effort with a
state agency in each state.
• Most of the state and substate estimates can be
obtained from either the BLS or the state
agency.
– The state agency website may provide the data on a
more timely basis than the BLS website and may
provide more detail than is available from the BLS.
– However, the websites of the various state agencies
are not consistent.
00:15
Employment Estimates
From the Current Employment Survey
(CES) and the Quarterly Census of
Employment and Wages (QCEW)
1:11
Summary of CES and QCEW
• Employment is an estimate of the number of jobs, not
the number of people employed.
– No distinction is made between a part-time and full-time
employee.
– Employment is estimated for the pay period including the 12th of
each month.
• The estimates are limited to civilian wage and salary
employees.
– Those self employed, active military personnel, and most or all
farm workers and household workers are excluded.
• Employment and wages are reported by employers by
establishment.
• Employers report the industry by establishment, but
more than one type of work may be done in a facility.
– Industries are classified using the North American Industry
Classification System (NAICS).
1:30
Comparison of CES and QCEW
CES
• Sample of 440,000
establishments
• Most wage & salary workers
• Monthly employment and
wages released in following
month
• Wages only, and only for
production workers
QCEW
• Census of 9,000,000
establishments
• 99.7% of w&s workers
• Monthly employment and
quarterly wages released 6
months after end of quarter
• Wages, bonuses, tips, etc.
for all w&s workers
3:30
The CES Program
• This was previously called the “790” program.
• The national estimates are made separately from
the states and do not equal the sum of the states.
• The estimates are subject to both sampling and
nonsampling error.
• The month-to-month change in employment at
continuing businesses is derived from the survey.
– A model is used to estimate employment at new firms.
• The estimates for the last year and most of the prior
year are “benchmarked” each February to data from
the unemployment insurance (UI) program.
– For states and substate areas, the magnitude of the
benchmark revisions may be large.
4:40
National CES Estimates
• The estimates generally are released on the first
Friday of each month.
• The estimates are revised in each of next two
months; annually, estimates for the last year and
most of the prior year are benchmarked.
• Due to sampling error, monthly changes in
employment of less than 96,400 cannot be
considered to be significant.
– The 90% confidence interval of any monthly change
in total nonfarm employment is +- 96,400.
6:28
Monthly Change in National Total
Nonfarm Employment in 2011
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Estimate
68
235
194
232
54
90% Confidence Interval
Lower Limit Upper Limit
-28
164
139
331
98
290
136
328
-42
150
7:44
Access to National CES Data
www.bls.gov/ces/
• “CES News Releases”
• “CES Tables and Charts”
• “CES Databases”
– “Employment, Hours, and Earnings - National”: “onescreen data search”
• Multiple measures can be selected, relating to
employment, hours worked, and earnings.
• Supersectors and then industries may be selected.
• The default output is monthly data from 2001 through
2011, but data are available back to 1982.
• Various formatting options are available, including the
calculation of the numeric and percentage change over
time.
• “CES Publications”
8:44
Demo CES data
10:00
Subnational CES Estimates
• Estimates are available for regions, states, and metro areas
from the BLS; county data are released by the state agency.
• The region and state estimates generally are released on the
on the third Friday of each month; the metro area data are
released 10 days later.
• Estimates are revised in the next month; each February,
estimates for the last year and most of the prior year are
benchmarked.
• The sampling error is directly related to the size of the sample
and the percentage of the universe covered.
• The availability of sectoral and industrial detail varies by state
and by substate areas.
• Due to very large sampling error, 44% of the substate sectoral
data are model based using the survey results, an ARIMA
projection, and the state data for that sector.
14:53
Access to Subnational CES Data
www.bls.gov/sae/
• “Latest SAE News Releases”
• “SAE Databases”
– “Employment, Hours, and Earnings - State and Metro
Area”: “one-screen data search”
• Supersectors and then industries may be selected.
• The available measures (relating to employment, hours
worked, and earnings) vary with the geography and the
sectors/industries selected -- only employment may be
available.
• The default output is monthly data from 2001 through
2011, but data are available back to 1990.
• “SAE Tables”
• “SAE Publications”
18:26
Demo CES data
18:30
Alternative Source of CES Data
wpcarey.asu.edu/bluechip/jobgrowth/
• Provides easy access to annual change in
employment for regions, states, and metro areas.
• Displays rankings.
• The annual change is available back to 1991.
• Totals, supersectors, and sectors can be selected.
• Easy to put job growth in an area into geographic
and historical perspective.
• The data may not be updated until the day after the
BLS releases the monthly subnational estimates.
– However, an advance look at the metro data is available at
the same time as the regional and state data.
21:36
Demo JobGrowthUSA site
22:44
QCEW Estimates
• This was previously called the “ES-202” and
“Covered Employment and Wages” program.
• In addition to employment and wages, the
number of establishments are reported.
• The average weekly wage is calculated by
dividing quarterly wages by the average of the
three monthly employment figures, then dividing
by 13.
• Not all multi-establishment employers report by
establishment.
26:06
QCEW Estimates (cont’d)
• Missing employer data are imputed by the state
agency.
• Considerable data may be withheld due to the
federal disclosure law.
• The QCEW is not designed to be used as a time
series.
– Administrative changes (an employer changing the
industry, location, or ownership) are not reflected in
the data for prior periods.
– The exception is that the prior year data are adjusted
for these changes for the geographic areas reported
in the news release.
26:45
Access to QCEW Estimates www.bls.gov/cew/
• “QCEW News Releases”
• “QCEW Databases”
– “State and County Wages”: “one-screen data search”
• Can be used for metro and micropolitan areas, states,
and counties (to choose a county, first select the state),
and the nation.
• The amount of available detail varies with the
geographic area, including industry, ownership (private
vs. level of government), and establishment size.
• Multiple measures can be selected: employment,
number of establishments, total wages, average weekly
wage, and average annual pay.
– “Flat Files”: ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/special.requests/cew/
• “QCEW Publications”
29:20
Demo QCEW data
30:02
Unemployment Estimates From the
Current Population Survey (CPS)
32:21
Summary of Unemployment Estimates
• The CPS provides monthly estimates of the labor
force, employment, unemployment, and
unemployment rate.
• The estimates are released with the CES
employment figures.
• The estimates are derived from a survey of
households.
– The estimates are of the number of persons, not jobs.
– Thus, the definition of CPS employment is different
from CES employment.
• An “unemployed” person is defined as not having
worked during the reference week and having
actively looked for work in the last four weeks.
32:33
National Estimates of Unemployment
• The estimates are directly from the Current
Population Survey (CPS).
– The CPS surveys 60,000 households.
– The standard error of the unemployment rate is 0.1.
• The estimates are released early in the following
month (typically the first Friday).
• No revision is made to the CPS estimates in the
next month.
– At the beginning of each year, seasonally adjusted
data are revised for the five prior years; population
controls also are changed at this time.
33:55
Access to National Unemployment Data
www.bls.gov/cps/
• “CPS News Releases”
• “CPS Databases”
– “Labor Force Statistics”: “one-screen data search”
• Users can search by gender, race, ethnic origin,
age, education, and marital status.
• Multiple measures can be selected, including the
unemployment rate.
• “Featured CPS Tables”
• “CPS Publications”
34:52
Subnational Unemployment Estimates
• State estimates usually are released on the third
Friday of the following month.
– Estimates for metro areas and cities (with a minimum
population of 25,000) are released 12 days later.
• Each monthly estimate is revised in the following
month; annual benchmarking is done at the
beginning of each year.
• According to the BLS:
– “Below the national level, the CPS sample is too small
and cannot support reliable estimates of even total
employed and unemployed for states on a monthly
basis.”
– “The CPS sample does not cover all counties.”
• Therefore, subnational estimates are derived from
models.
35:37
Subnational Unemployment Models
• States: “signal-plus-noise time-series model”
– Current and historical data from the CPS, CES, and the
unemployment insurance (UI) program are used.
– The model has three components: variable coefficient
regression, flexible trend, and flexible seasonal
component.
• Labor market areas: “handbook method”
– For employment, adjustments are made to the CES
employment data.
– For unemployment, UI data are used for part of the
universe and an econometric model is used for the
balance.
• Cities and many counties: disaggregation method
36:28
Access to Subnational Data (Local Area
Unemployment Statistics) www.bls.gov/lau/
• “LAU Economic News Releases”
• “Featured LAU Searchable Databases”
– “Local Area Unemployment Statistics”: “one-screen
data search”
• Users can choose a state or region/division, then
the area, then seasonal adjustment.
• Labor force, employment, unemployment, and
unemployment rate are displayed.
• “Tables and Maps Created by BLS”
37:49