ICAR 2014 Guy Hudson Partner JLT RE +44 7767 880691 guy.hudson@jltre.com AGENDA Recent European Floods What should Insurers think about these floods? Reinsurance capital – The supply-driven inflow The paradox of lower pricing amid heightening risk So what might happen with Reinsurance rates for European flood exposed catastrophe programs? Claims handling in light of increased losses ICAR 2014 2 RECENT EUROPEAN FLOOD LOSSES ROMANIA 27th of July and 1st of August: 99 homes were destroyed, 1,163 damaged and another 2,377 flooded. 2,475 wells have been plugged, 13 bridges were destroyed, 83 partially damaged, 60 culverts destroyed and 23 346 hectares of land were flooded. PAID Insured losses to residential buildings, as at 5th August - 22 claims advised to PAID until yesterday - 116.622 lei (approx. 26.000 euro) related loss reserve ICAR 2014 3 RECENT EUROPEAN FLOOD & HAIL LOSSES 2014 Total damage Insured part $890m Floods in Germany Floods in Serbia €1.7bn €3bn ($4.08bn) Floods in Bosnia Hail in Sofia, Bulgaria (9th July) ICAR 2014 ‘Insured losses were small’ €1.3bn BGN 100M (Bulgarian press) = €51m 4 WHAT DOES IT MEAN TO INSURERS? Demonstrates very low insurance penetration in many countries of Central and South east Europe Losses often from unpredictable Flash floods not Riverine Floods Lack of third party proprietary models for flood in the region Models are no good for flash floods Evidence of Increasing exposure? Evidence of Increasing hazard? Is the portfolio of risks geo-coded? Quality of Information? Is the Insurer adequately reinsured? ICAR 2014 5 REINSURANCE CAPACITY FOR FLOOD THE EXTRAODINARY INCREASE IN REINSURANCE SECTOR CAPITAL THE LARGEST REINSURANCE SECTOR CAPITAL STRUCTURE SHIFT IN MEMORY? JLT RE GLOBAL RE MARKET COMPOSITE CAPITAL* The Upward March of Reinsurance Capital Increased Each Year Except 2008 (Financial Crisis) 500 450 Capital (USD Billions) 400 486 2013 2014 Q1 431 350 300 471 386 2010 2011 337 323 250 378 274 200 150 100 50 2007 2008 2009 2012 Note: Capital levels represent composite total adjusted shareholders’ funds. This is different from dedicated reinsurance capital and different still from reinsurance capacity. Excludes capital markets, catastrophe funds and internal reinsurance capital. *Represents a JLT Re proprietary list of leading global reinsurers. Sources: SNL Financial, JLT Re. ICAR 2014 8 EVOLUTION OF THIRD PARTY CAPITAL: A BRIEF HISTORY ‘NON TRADITIONAL’ % OF PROPERTY-CAT LIMIT SINCE 2000 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 0% Source: JLT Towers Re ICAR 2014 9 PUTTING IT IN PERSPECTIVE PENSION FUNDS VS INSURANCE VS REINSURANCE VS RETRO Pension Fund Capital Under Management $30 trillion Global reinsurance market dedicated sector capital ca. $300 billion Global retrocession capital <$30 billion Global insurance sector capital (including life) $2.5 - $3 trillion Source: JP Morgan, JLT Re estimates ICAR 2014 10 HOW MUCH CAPITAL COULD REALLY COME IN? $30 TRILLION? $900 BILLION? $675? $300? Pension Fund Capital Under Management $30 trillion Global reinsurance market dedicated sector capital ca. $300 billion Global retrocession capital <$30 billion $300 billion ($30 trillion x .1 x .1)? Global insurance sector capital (including life) $2.5 - $3 trillion Source: JP Morgan, JLT Towers Re estimates ICAR 2014 11 AND WHAT DO RATING AGENCIES THINK OF ALL THIS? DON’T BE FOOLED BY THE STERILE LANGUAGE! Despite being well capitalized the P&C (Re) Insurance Industry faces ongoing pressure, particularly in the commercial lines sector Record low investment returns continue to weigh on earnings Alternative capacity starting to creep into casualty lines of business Underwriting accuracy/discipline becoming even more important (cycle management) Rating Outlooks by Agency ICAR 2014 Sector S&P A.M. Best Moody’s Fitch U.S. Personal Lines Stable Stable Stable Stable U.S. Commercial Lines Negative Negative Stable Stable Global Reinsurance Negative Stable Negative Negative 12 LOSS TRENDS AND LOWER REINSURANCE PRICING – A PARADOX OF SORTS? ARE PRICES DECREASING JUST AS RISK IS INCREASING? IT WOULDN’T BE THE FIRST TIME HOW HAS THE REINSURANCE INDUSTRY FARED? UNDERWRITING GAINS EVERY YEAR EXCEPT 2011 JLT Re Global RE Market Index*: Combined Ratio Trends 100 2014Q1 51 2013 52 1 32 3 49 2012 54 2010 55 2009 55 - 20 Loss Ratio 86 26 30 8 4 CAT Ratio 93 29 8 40 110 30 2 52 2007 86 29 59 2008 84 31 8 2011 Combined Ratio 86 27 94 28 60 84 80 100 120 Expense Ratio *Represents a JLT Towers Re proprietary list of leading global reinsurers. Sources: SNL Financial, JLT Towers Re ICAR 2014 14 DON’T BE FOOLED BY 2013 PROPERTY-CAT LOSSES ARE NOT DECREASING Next time? KRW Tohoku, Thailand, Christchurch Potential to affect capital Potential to affect earnings Sector natural catastrophe loss range Deepwater oil rig, Washington hanger collapse Sandy Cyber Sector specialty loss range Air France 447 ICAR 2014 15 INSURED CATASTROPHE LOSSES 1980 - 2010$20.7 BN ANNUAL AVGE – GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION 18.7% 64.0% 9.5% 1.1% 3.5% 3.4% Insured cat losses are traditionally determined by North American hurricane losses Source: Swiss Re ICAR 2014 16 INSURED CATASTROPHE LOSSES 2011 >$125 BN – GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION 3.8% 35.1% 43.4% 0.3% 0.5% • 2011: earthquake losses were the highest ever • 2011: flood losses were the highest ever • 2011: Other weather-related natural catastrophes were the 3rd highest ever (after 2005 and 2004) 16.9% Shift in perils and regions Source: Swiss Re ICAR 2014 17 REINSURANCE RENEWAL PRICING RECENT LOW LOSSES + EXCESS SUPPLY = NEAR UNIVERSALLY LOWER PRICING RECENT RENEWALS SUMMARY The major driver for 2013 was lack of catastrophes coupled with continued favorable loss reserve development from prior accident years Four issues are now placing pressure on traditional reinsurers Alternative capacity (capital market transactions, alternative/hedge fund backed Re) Continued low interest rate environment Primaries holding more retention Favorable reserve development has to come to an end at some point Potential reinsurer reactions Additional M&A pressure? Formation of alternative side car type vehicles to compete (e.g., Watford Re - PaCRe) Use of the alternative market to reinsurers’ advantage for example, lowering PML’s by buying retro in the alternative markets ICAR 2014 19 SO WHAT MIGHT HAPPEN TO REINSURANCE RATES FOR THE REGION? Increase loss activity in 2014 Lack of Historical statistics Lack of Geo-coding or partial Geo-Coding Increasing Exposures Increasing Hazards Lack of Independent Cat Models Some losses Flash Floods not Riverine Pressures Upwards ICAR 2014 Pressures Downwards Increased Capital Effect of Alternative Capacity Need for diversification Income requirements Single territory covers 20 CLAIMS HANDLING AFTER MAJOR EVENT CHRISTCHURCH EQ 2010 2011 Lodgement and recording of claims - worked well at CHCH - contracted to firm operating from a broad (Australia) , and untouched by the disaster Give claimants information about progress. Very bad, with both EQC and companies. EQC processes not at all transparent - see Ombudsman's report with link on page http://www.ombudsman.parliament.nz/resources-and-publications/latest-reports Claim settlement hindered at first by lack of clarity as to boundaries between EQC and companies covers Claim adjustment made hard by multiple events The decisions of EQC and companies not clear throughout as to what sort of claims would be settled in cash and which repaired Technical skills such as builders in short supply Shortage of skilled adjusters a problem. Shortage of qualified engineers - structural and geotech Companies were reluctant to put enough resources in from abroad to expedite adjustment ICAR 2014 21 THANK YOU