Dr. John J. Byrne, PMP
John J. Byrne ©2011
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John J. Byrne ©2011
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Introduction
 National Security Counsel Recommendations:
 Seaborne nuclear missile launch system using converted
transports
 1500 miles minimum range IRBM
 Augment U.S. Air force fleet of bombs
 U.S. Air Force develop ICBM
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1955 to 1957
 U.S. Navy given 8 years to complete
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1955 to 1957 continued
 Political influences
 Senator McCarthy
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Korean War
Soviet spying
 President Eisenhower
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Military industrial complex
Garrison state
Atom for Peace
 Funding
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Political influences continued
 Interservice rivalry
 Curtis LeMay
 Admiral’s Revolt – U.S.S. United States
 Naval culture – cruise missiles
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1955 to 1957 Technical Issues
 No such missile existed capable of satisfying the National
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Security Council’s requirements
No warhead had yet been developed that was capable of
being deployed on a missile capable of seaborne launch
No launch system existed that was capable of launching a
large missile from a ship
No ship in the Navy inventory was capable of carrying and
launching a large missile
No guidance system existed that was accurate enough to
guide a nuclear armed missile 1500 miles to its target with
any degree of reliability whatsoever
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Technical Issues continued
 NSC requirements
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1955 to 1957 Initial Responses
 Stakeholder analysis - Risk averse
 SPO
 Commissioned China Lake study
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Jupiter and Transport requirements
 Not realistic
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1955 to 1957 Initial Responses
continued
 Must use submarines
 Need smaller missiles
 Need smaller warheads
 German experience
 Enlisted Dr. Teller
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1955 to 1957 Initial Responses
continued
 Created Polaris Ad hoc Group
 China Lake
 Project Atlantis
 Project Mercury
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20 megaton
 Liquid or Solid fuel?
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1955 to 1957 Initial Responses
continued
 Nobska
 Assumptions and constrain analysis 1100
 W-47
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Late 1957
 Possible but dead in the water.
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Sputnik
 October 4, 1957
 NASA
 New math
 Duck and cover drills
 NSF
 ARPA, DARPA, ARPANET
 Polaris
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Post Sputnik
 Risk seeking
 Partial funding restored
 1100 miles accepted
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PERT
 Developed PERT
 Project and activity standard deviation
 Earned Value Management
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PERT Applied
Polaris Risk Management
Determine time estimates (TE) from
PERT estimates of activity duration
Typical Risk Management
Risk Management Planning
Calculate standard deviations and
Risk Identification
rank activities based on these standard
deviation
Perform selective Risk Identification
Risk Qualification
Analyze and prioritize risks
Risk Quantification
Create proactive and reactive response
plans
Risk Response Planning
Monitor and Control Risks using EVM
Risk Monitoring and Control
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Specific Issues
 Build or modify? - early version of
decision tree analysis
 Lockheed & Kelley Johnson
 14 rules
 19 launch failures and available
parts
 Submarine launch system popup testing – San Clemente
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Specific Issues continued
 Transferred
 Oxygen
 Carbon dioxide
 Carbon monoxide
 Water
 Scorpion to George Washington
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Specific Issues continued
 Technical disputes
 Navigation issues:
 Missile – 1100 miles
 Submarine - SINS – GPS
 Warhead reentry
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Risk management techniques
 SPO set goals
 SPO communication management
 Field locations employed EMV and reported to SPO
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Risk management techniques
 No top-down control
 Empowered field locations
 Independent decision making
 Sharing of budgets amongst individual entities
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Conclusions
 Mercury, Gemini, and Apollo
 SPO kept project moving without budget
 Managed competing key stakeholder expectations
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Conclusions
 Centralized/ decentralized organization
 Clear vision and goals
 Sputnik
 Realized its own shortcoming – PERT
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Conclusions
 Hass (2009)
 Not focus on best PM
 Focus on managing diverse group of experts
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Final word
 June 9, 1959 George Washington launched
 Commissioned December 30, 1959
 Launch July 20, 1960
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Final word
 Cuban Missile Crisis
 Cold War
 Considered most successful DOD project ever
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Contact Information
 Dr. John J. Byrne, PMP
jbyrne@devry.edu
 Polaris: Lessons in
Risk management
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References
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