Scotland towards Independence?
Or how to dissolve the
United Kingdom?
Election Victory for the SNP
• SNP won the parliamentary election in
Scotland on 5 May 2011.
• Salmond, SNP´s leader, promised a
referendum on Scottish independence
• SNP has a majority in the Scottish
Parliament, so...
– Is it all straight-forward?
Not quite, as it turns out
• Today we will explore the
constitutional implications of the
SNP’s plans for a referendum
Constitutional Issues at Stake
• The prospect of a referendum opened up a
frantic debate...
• What would be the correct constitutional
procedure?
– Would a referendum be legal / legally binding
when organised by Edinburgh?
– Were the Scots alone to decide, and who
would qualify as Scottish?
– Questions asked:
• two or more alternatives?
• one or two referenda?
Political Maneuvering
• What complicated the picture for the outside observer and the
average voter?
– The discussion on the constitutional procedure got mixed up with a political
struggle because Separatists and Unionists were both trying to promote their
own political interests
Ex: when should the referendum be held?
Unionists: as soon as possible
Separatists: delay to gain greater support
• Alex Salmond seemed to think he could decide all by himself
Cameron Strikes Back...
• January 2012 – David Cameron:
• Edinburgh does not have the constitutional right to hold a legally binding
referendum
– Why not? Crown-in-Parliament (Westminster) is the sovereign body in
the United Kingdom
• Matters concerning the union are not part of the devolved powers.
So no referendum unless it is initiated by Westminster.
Westminster, the Seat of Power
Resolving the Constitutional Issues
At the heart of the constitutional debate on the referendum was the
political arrangements of the British state:
1. Britain is a unitary state – all power rests with the central level,
Westminster
– All power at “lower” levels such as Edinburgh are given by
Westminster, and can be withdrawn
2. Parliament is the sovereign body in the sense that it is not
restricted by any written/codified constitution – in the UK there is
none...
– In theory, Parliament can pass any legislation on anything with a
simple majority
Role of the Devolved Institutions
• By contrast, the powers of the
devolved assemblies in Scotland,
Wales and Northern Ireland are
clearly defined through Acts of
Parliament
• These do not involve issues
relating to the union
– Ok, but what does this mean in
practice?
England Decides?
• About 83% of the population in
the UK live in England.
• Parliament (The Commons) is a
democratically elected body.
• It follows that the English MPs
will always make up a huge
majority in the lower house
• So are all matters relating to the
union to be decided by England
alone? - Unlikely...
No, Scots Will Decide!
• Cameron (and Parliament)
accepted the following
argument:
The election victory gave the SNP
a mandate from the Scottish
electorate to “test” their primary
objective: Scottish independence
• Thus a referendum is to be
held in Scotland
• Negotiations followed, and led
to...
Agreement on 15 October 2012
The Edinburgh Agreement
Decided questions of contention
• Date:
– To be held in 2014 – but exact date to be specified
• Franchise:
– As for Scottish Parliament elections + 16 & 17 year-olds
• Question: In or out?
– Single question to be asked, no option of “devo max”
– Wording of the question: decided by Scottish Parliament, but reviewed
by the independent Electoral Commission
Referendum Question
• The wording of the question to be asked in the referendum
has been an issue of contention
– Could it affect the outcome?
• SNP suggestion:
Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country Yes/No
– Widely seen as biased in favour of a yes-vote
• Electoral Commission’s suggestion:
Should Scotland be an independent country? Yes/No
– This seems to be the final version
Sir Alex Ferguson
•
“Eight-hundred-thousand Scots, like me, live
and work in other parts of the United
Kingdom. We don't live in a foreign country;
we are just in another part of the family of the
UK.”
•
“Scots living outside Scotland, but inside the
UK might not get a vote in the referendum,
but we have a voice and we care deeply about
our country. It is quite wrong of the man who
is supposed to be leader of Scotland to try and
silence people like this.”
•
“I played for Scotland and managed the
Scotland team. No-one should question my
Scottishness just because I live south of the
border.”
Can Sir Sean Connery Vote?
• Long-time SNP-supporter
• Scotsman who grew up in
Edinburgh
• Is not currently a resident of
Scotland
- Not eligible to vote in the
referendum
Issues at Stake
Prospect of Scottish independence raises a number of issues
– this is no straight-forward business!
1. Republic or Monarchy?
2. Still a member of the Commonwealth?
3. Citizenship
4. Assets and National Debt
More Issues at Stake
Some issues are, however, a lot more challenging:
5. Currency
6. Defence
7. EU membership
Are we looking at a “watered-down” independence – if any?
Defence – What to Do?
Is Scottish independence likely?
• Support for independence in Scotland currently stands at 1 to
2, that is:
• Opinion polls: 1/3 – yes; 2/3 – no
• What do you think the Scots should do?