OECD /KOREA POLICY CENTRE
PAKISTAN: FAILURE OF
POVERTY REDUCTION
EFFORTS
by
Saifur Rahman Sherani
PAKISTAN PROFILE
• Area
796,000 Sq. km
• Population 164 million
• Population Average Annual
Growth Rate
1.7%
• GNI
US$ 144 Billion
• GNI per Capita
US$ 770
• Domestic Debt Rs. 1,787
Billion (US$ 28 billion)
• External Debt US$ 45 billion
POVERTY PROFILE
• Poverty Line 2,350 calories per adult
equivalent (Rs. 944 in 2006 prices)
• Population Below Poverty Line: 23.9%
• Regional variations:
• NWFP (rural) and FATA
44%
• Balochistan
47%
• Punjab (rural)
32%
• Below $ 1 a day
17%
• Below S 2 a day
74%
OFFICIAL POVERTY ESTIMATES
Percent of Population Below Poverty Line
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
FY 1999
FY 2001
FY 2005
FY 2006
FY 2009
POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY 2003
• Accelerating economic growth while
maintaining macroeconomic stability.
• Improving governance.
• Investing in human capital.
• Targeting the poor and the vulnerable.
SOCIAL INDICATORS 2007
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Adult Literacy Rate
Combined Gross Enrolment ratio
Net Primary enrolment ratio
Life Expectancy
Newborn with Low birth weight
Children Underweight
Infant Mortality
Under 5 Mortality
Maternal Mortality per 100,000
50%
40%
68%
64 years
37%
30%
77
99
320
Budgetary Expenditure as % of GDP
2007
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Education
Health
Water supply and Sanitation
Rural Development
Food Subsidies
Food Support Programme
Population Planning
1.86%
0.61%
0.19%
0.25%
0.06%
0.04%
0.08%
Social Assistance (Zakat) Disbursed
9,000
8,000
Pakistan Rupees Million
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
Zakat
FY 2002
FY 2003
FY 2004
FY 2005
FY 2006
FY 2007
5,254
8,009
5,330
3,692
4,520
4,600
INCREASING POVERTY
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Food Crisis
Energy Crisis – 4,000 MW power shortage
Cottage Industry Shutdown
Textile units: 70% closed
Increasing Unemployment
Inflation 23%
Food Prices Increased 200%
Government Management
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Shortage of wheat - four fold increase in prices
(2007 Wheat production 24 million tonnes)
Exported 1.5 million tonnes – $208 /tonne
Imported 2.5 million tonnes - $400 / tonne
Shortage of Power and industrial shut down
Load Shedding
Shortage of gas and increasing prices of fuel
Rush for Wheat Flour
POLITICAL TURMOIL AND INSTABILITY
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Military Rule October 1999 to 2008
Popular Leadership Exiled and imprisoned
Emergency PLUS 2007
End of Supreme Court March 2007
Superior Judiciary in Chains
Army Operation in Balochistan 2005 to 2008
Army Operation in Islamabad 2007
Wave of Suicide Bombings
Political Murders – [Former Prime Minister, Governor, Chief Minister]
Marriot Hotel Islamabad
War on Terror
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US Attacks in FATA 2003 – to date
Military Operation in NWFP 2007
Military Operation in FATA 2004 to date
Internal Displacement About 2 million people
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[Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre – No estimates]
RETURN TO CIVILIAN RULE
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Elections February 2008
Resignation of Military Ruler August 2008
Constitutional Amendments not Reversed
New Political Government - 55 federal
ministers – 20 more to be appointed
• Foreign Exchange Reserves Depleted
• Financial Crisis
• IMF loan obtained
FROM DISCONTENT TO DESPAIR
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Poverty and Destitution Increasing
Ever increasing Food Prices
Increasing Unemployment
Social Assistance as Political Patronage
through elected representatives
• Federal cabinet of 55 ministers
• Import of 250 bullet proof vehicles
Poor Sell Kidney for Survival
PRIVATE SOCIAL ASSISTANCE
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EDHI Langar (soup-kitchen) in all major cities
Imran Khan 50% Subsidy on baked Bread
Private Charities – Food distribution
Zakat
QUEUE FOR FREE FOOD
Government Initiatives
Planned in April 2008 yet to be Implemented
• Federal Programme:
• Benezir Income Support Programme Federal
Government - Rs.34 billion
• Rs. 1,000 per month to 2.83 million poor
• Provincial Government:
• Punjab Government Food Stamp Rs. 21.9
billion for 1.8 million Poor
Pakistan’s Public Expenditure on
Social Assistance and War on Terror
800.0
PAK RUPEES BILLIONS
700.0
600.0
500.0
400.0
300.0
200.0
100.0
0.0
War on Terror
Social Assistance
FY 2005
259.1
5.4
FY 2006
300.8
7.7
FY 2007
360.9
6.3
FY 2008
484.4
0.0
FY 2009
677.8
65.9
DISASTERS
• Drought 1999 - 2003
• Floods in Balochistan and NWFP 2005 and
2007
• Earthquake in Northern Pakistan 2005
100,000 killed
• Earthquake in Balochistan
2008
• Suicide Bomb Attacks
116
Public Policy Issues
• Respect and Acceptance of Constitutional
Rights of Individuals by the State
• Restoration of Independent Judiciary
• Bring Transparency and End Corruption
• Pro-poor Public Policy
• Strengthening of Planning
• Preparation of PRSP - 2