Syllabus COURSE AND CONTACT INFORMATION Course: Statistics 1051 Semester: Fall 2012 Time: Monday and Wednesday 6:10-8:00 PM Locations: Phillips Hall, B-152 INSTRUCTOR Name: Darius Singpurwalla Campus Address: None Phone: E-mail: dsingpur@gwu.edu Office hours: Mondays after class or by appointment TA Name: Joshua Sparks Dept. of Statistics 2140 Pennsylvania Avenue NW, Washington, D.C. 20052 Phone : Fax : Email : josparks@gwmail.gwu.edu Office hours: TBD COURSE DESCRIPTION This is an introductory class in the statistical sciences. Below is the summary of topics. Numerical measures of central tendency and variability, frequency distributions & graphical presentations, probability, random variables, sampling distributions, estimation, confidence intervals, testing of hypotheses, linear regression and correlation. COURSE PREREQUISITE(S) None TEXTS Author : Moore Title: The Practice of Statistics for Business and Economics Edition: Third Edition LEARNING OUTCOMES: As a result of completing this course, students will be able to: --apply laws of probability --construct and interpret large-sample and small-sample confidence intervals --evaluate evidence for and against hypotheses using statistical tests --find the least-squares equation for simple linear regression and assess the utility of the model GRADING Homework 20% o Homework problems generally will be a selected set of problems from the textbook. They will be selected to test your understanding of the mechanics and underlying principles. Late HW’s will be accepted with a 5% deduction of points for each day it is late. Late HW’s will be accepted up to one week late. If you do not hand in the HW within one week after it’s due date, you cannot receive any credit for completing the assignment. o Selected course readings (from a journal article or newspaper) that illustrate the days lesson, will be selected by the professor and uploaded for reading by at the latest, the night before class. Please read them before class and be prepared to discuss. Team Projects 20% 1. Indicators Case Study. The case study will focus on descriptive statistics and graphing by developing a set of statistical indicators to assess a particular topic. All case studies are to be typed. In general, they should be 5 pages, including graphs. All graphs are to be done in Excel. The specific details will be given after we cover chapters one and two of the text. 2. Group Project. The group project will be a sophisticated analysis project which you will work on together as a team. The details of the project will be revealed in the second half of the semester. At the end of the course, your team will present your findings to the class during a poster presentation. First Exam (Online): 20% The first exam will be after we cover probability distributions. Second Exam (Online): 20% The second exam will cover the remaining sections in class. Participation and In Class Activities (ICA) and Quizzes: 20%. o There will be a brief in-class quiz, every few weeks at the beginning of class, on Wednesdays (specific dates will are included in the syllabus). The quiz will cover material from only class periods since the quiz and should take about 10-15 minutes to complete. You can use 1 page (front and back of an 8 ½ x 11 piece of paper) of notes for the quiz but experience has shown me that students who rely too heavily on their notes do not do as well as those who are prepared. o ICA’s are activities that we will do during class time on Mondays to reinforce material. o There are no make-up on ICA's and quizzes. o Participation Requirement 1: Each student will be responsible for contributing to the day's lecture one time during the semester. This will be done in your selected student groups, most likely starting in the third week of the semester. Contributions consist of two items: 1. Each student must solve ~five (depending on the size of your group) problems from the chapter we are covering in the days lecture and present the solutions on the board. 2. Present to the class from a newspaper article or academic journal a real life example of the statistical technique covered in class. o Participation requirement 2: Students are expected to contribute to the class discussions as well. Each student will be required to contribute at least five thoughtful comments throughout the semester. NOTE: IN ACCORD WITH UNIVERSITY POLICY, THE FINAL EXAM WILL BE GIVEN DURING THE FINAL EXAM PERIOD AND NOT THE LAST WEEK OF THE SEMESTER CLASS POLICIES Attendance Policy: I don’t take attendance. However, when you are in class, there will be no talking, no text messaging, IM’ing, browsing the internet. This is distracting to me and to fellow students. The general format of the class will be as follows: Monday's we cover conceptual material for the course; Wednesday's will focus on going over practice problems. Two examinations will be given throughout the semester. The exams will be given online and you will have 2 hours (the time you would have in class, to complete it). The first exam will cover material through probability distributions. The second exam, with the exception of two questions, will cover the remaining course material and will be given during the scheduled final exam period. To prepare you for taking the online exam, I will give a pre-test before the first exam. The pre-test will not count toward your grade. If students are uncomfortable with the format of the online exam based upon the pre-test, then we can switch to a traditional setting. There will be no difference between the questions on the online exam vs. the paper pencil exam. Since the exam is given online, you can use your books and notes during the exam. Since you have access to all your materials, partial credit will not be given on any problems. Homework is due to the TA during the recitation period. The TA will handle all HW grading, solution sheets, and maintaining the grade on Blackboard. Please do not give me HW to give to the TA, or put HW in my box at the statistics department. Since I am an adjunct instructor, I do not check my mailbox very often at the statistics department. Hand in assignments to myself of the T.A. If an assignment is due on a day you have to miss class, please give it to a fellow student to hand in. University Policy on Religious Holidays: o Students should notify faculty during the first week of the semester of their intention to be absent from class on their day(s) of religious observance; o Faculty should extend to these students the courtesy of absence without penalty on such occasions, including permission to make up examinations; o Faculty who intend to observe a religious holiday should arrange at the beginning of the semester to reschedule missed classes or to make other provisions for their course-related activities Email Communication: Logistical questions about the class will not be answered over email. Please ask these questions during class for the benefit of everyone. I will answer content questions over email. Stat 1051, 1053, 6104, and 1111 are all related in subject matter and credit for only one of them may be applied toward a degree. COURSE GRADING The course is not graded on a curve. Your homework and exams will be combined according to the percentages shown in the syllabus. Final grades will be assigned based on the scale below: 93% - 100% 90% - 92.9999% 88% - 89.9999% 82% - 87.9999% 80% - 81.9999% 78% - 79.9999% 72% - 77.9999% 70% - 71.9999% 65% - 69.9999% 60% - 64.9999% <=59.99999% A AB+ B BC+ C CD+ D F Unless a computational error has been made, grades will not be changed after the end of the semester. Keep up with your scores in Blackboard. I will not make adjustments for missing work after two weeks from when the assignment was returned to you. Also, please do not come seeing extra-credit opportunities; course grades are based on the above calculations. CLASS SCHEDULE (this is approximate) Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Material Introduction and Statistical Thinking Labor Day Descriptive Statistics & Graphing Collecting Data Introduction to Probability Probability Continued Discrete Random Variables Lab Other Excel & Meet the TA Excel (continued) Excel Smithsonian project (Continued) due. Quiz #1 Indicator Case Study Due 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Continuous Random Variables Exam #1 Introduction to Statistical Inference and Sampling Distributions & Review Confidence Intervals Hypothesis Testing Two Sample Tests Regression and Correlation Regression and Correlation (cont.) Group Project Presentations No Lab Quiz #3 Quiz #4 Group Project Due ACADEMIC INTEGRITY I personally support the GW Code of Academic Integrity. It states: “Academic dishonesty is defined as cheating of any kind, including misrepresenting one's own work, taking credit for the work of others without crediting them and without appropriate authorization, and the fabrication of information.” For the remainder of the code, see: http://www.gwu.edu/~integrity/code.html SUPPORT FOR STUDENTS OUTSIDE THE CLASSROOM DISABILITY SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) Any student who may need an accommodation based on the potential impact of a disability should contact the Disability Support Services office at 202-994-8250 in the Marvin Center, Suite 242, to establish eligibility and to coordinate reasonable accommodations. For additional information please refer to: http://gwired.gwu.edu/dss/ UNIVERSITY COUNSELING CENTER (UCC) 202-994-5300 The University Counseling Center (UCC) offers 24/7 assistance and referral to address students' personal, social, career, and study skills problems. Services for students include: - crisis and emergency mental health consultations - confidential assessment, counseling services (individual and small group), and referrals http://gwired.gwu.edu/counsel/CounselingServices/AcademicSupportServices SECURITY In the case of an emergency, if at all possible, the class should shelter in place. If the building that the class is in is affected, follow the evacuation procedures for the building. After evacuation, seek shelter at a predetermined rendezvous location. Emergency Preparedness and Response at GWU To Report an Emergency or Suspicious Activity Call the University Police Department at 202-994-6111 (Foggy Bottom) or 202-242-6111 (Mount Vernon). Shelter in Place Although it is unlikely that we will ever need to shelter in place, it is helpful to know what to do just in case. No matter where you are, the basic steps of shelter in place will generally remain the same. If you are inside, stay where you are unless the building you are in is affected. If it is affected, you should evacuate. If you are outdoors, proceed into the closest building or follow instructions from emergency personnel on the scene. Locate an interior room to shelter inside. If possible, it should be above ground level and have the fewest number of windows. If sheltering in a room with windows, move away from the windows. If there is a large group of people inside a particular building, several rooms maybe necessary. Shut and lock all windows (tighter seal) and close exterior doors. Turn off air conditioners, heaters, and fans. Close vents to ventilation systems as you are able. (University staff will turn off ventilation as quickly as possible). Make a list of the people with you and ask someone to call the list in to UPD so they know where you are sheltering. If only students are present, one of the students should call in the list. Await further instructions. If possible, visit Campus Advisories for incident updates (http://CampusAdvisories.gwu.edu) or call the GW Information Line 202-994-5050. Make yourself comfortable and look after one other. You will get word as soon as it is safe to come out. Evacuation An evacuation will be considered if the building we are in is affected or we must move to a location of greater safety. We will always evacuate if the fire alarm sounds. In the event of an evacuation, please gather your personal belongings quickly (purse, keys, GWorld card, etc.) and proceed to the nearest exit. Do not use the elevator. Once you have evacuated the building, proceed to our primary rendezvous location (INSERT PRIMARY INDOOR RENDEZVOUS LOCATION HERE). In the event that this location is unavailable, we will meet at (INSERT SECONDARY INDOOR RENDEZVOUS LOCATION HERE). Alert DC Alert DC provides free notification by e-mail or text message during an emergency. Visit Campus Advisories for a link and instructions on how to sign up for alerts pertaining to GW. Emergency Information Additional emergency information may be obtained by visiting the Campus Advisories webpage (http://CampusAdvisories.gwu.edu) or calling the GW Information Line at 202994-5050.