Presidential Elections v. Congressional Elections
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Presidential races tend to be much more competitive
than House races—term limits, narrower margins, more
voters in Pres. elections
90% of all House incumbents are reelected with most
receiving 60% of the vote or more—elections have low
turnout too (you have to beat party radicals)
Incumbents take advantage of all “good things” they
provide to their districts—gov’t programs (John Dingell
V.A. Hospital in Detroit)
President doesn’t enjoy this luxury; in fact, their party
may lose Congressional seats
Coattails doubtful
Result: Congressional elections independent of
Presidential ones
Running for President
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1st: Get Mentioned. David Broder’s “Great Mentioner,” selfpromotion, speeches
Set aside a lot of time to run (4 yrs+)
Raise money, set up organization (PAC can give you $5000,
individuals $1000, and you must raise $5000 in $250 or smaller
contributions in 20 states to be eligible for federal matching
primary funds)
Decide on tone (nice or mudslinger), theme (“Moving America
Forward” or “Stronger at home, respected abroad”)
Tone can be Negative (Bush 41) or Positive (John Edwards)
Incumbents run on record; challengers attack
Also key: timing, which voters to target
Mobilize volunteers—help you get name on ballot
Do well in caucuses/primaries**
Television/Debates/Direct Mail
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TV spending a major part of campaign expenses
Includes “visuals,” cleverly-timed shots of
candidates shaking hands, visiting a fire, or
reviewing the military, etc…
Paid commercials are much more influential than
election news coverage
Debates: Can usually only hurt
incumbent/favorite; exception Reagan
Risks “slip of the tongue;” tend to speak
carefully and use hackneyed phrases over and
over
“The Donors List” can be the key to victory!
4 Big $$$$$$ Questions
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Where does the money come from?
What rules govern how it is raised and
spent?
What has been the effect of campaign
finance reform?
What does campaign spending buy?
Sources of Campaign Money
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Congress: all from private
States: all private
President: private/federal government matching
Matching funds on all contributions $250 or less,
plus lump sums for conventions
If you accept funds, spending limits apply
Congressional candidates (surprise) get most
money from individual donors
Most money comes in small amounts from
donors because of matching fund requirement
Campaign Finance Rules:
Pre-2002 (pre-BCRA)
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Watergate scandal still plagues process
1974 Federal Election Campaign Law sets up FEC
Must report every contribution of $100
May not accept more than $1000 per election from an
individual per election
Individuals limited to $25,000/yr. total contributions; no limit on
independent advertising
No foreign contributions or Union contributions (but they may
form PACs)
PACs may give $5000/election/cycle to individual candidates;
$15,000 to a national party, must have 50 voluntary members
and donate to 5 candidates
Soft money is unlimited; Democrats like to have “get out the
vote” fundraisers
Campaign Finance Reform
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PACs have exploded since 1974
Even more developed during Dem
administrations
Further weakened parties
Provide advantages to wealthy challengers
Give advantages to candidates with strong
ideological appeal; direct mail
Reforms penalize late-bloomers
The McCain-Feingold Campaign
Finance Reform Act (aka “BCRA”)
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Soft money contributions to parties from corporations
banned
No $ from people under 18
Issue Advocacy ads banned by non-527 organizations:
Corporations, unions, trade associations, and nonprofits
cannot use their own money and identify candidates by
name 30 days before primary or 60 days before general
election
527’s have played dirty so far
Individuals can now give $2000/candidate/election, and
total limits are higher. $95,000 maximum
“Millionaire’s Amendment” allows those facing wealthy,
self-financed opposition to raise more
Challenged in court; upheld in McConnell v. FEC
What does Campaigning Buy?
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Money makes little difference in Prez
elections, big difference in Congressional
elections
Name recognition is expensive
Jon Corzine, NJ: Bought a Senate seat for
$69 Million
What Decides the Election?
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Party Identification: More identify as Democrats,
Republicans more loyal and vote more often
Economic Issues—voters have better knowledge
about these issues
Prospective Voting—look ahead to
promises..usually political junkies
Retrospective Voting—punish or reward the
incumbent
THESE DECIDE ELECTIONS. Some people in
1968 didn’t vote for Nixon, but against Humphrey
Campaigning makes the
Difference: 3 Ways
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Reawakens party loyalties
(convention worth about six
points)
Gives voters a chance to
watch how the candidates
handle pressure
Allows voters to judge
character and core values
Negative ads often have
strong appeal (Willie Horton)
In class, digital files are
included to emphasize these
points during past Presidential
campaigns
Building a Winning Coalition
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Democrats have lost their stranglehold on
Catholics, southerners, and union
members
Republicans more stable; farmers can bolt
though—and did in 1948 and 1964.
Elderly poor votes Republican
Must be constructed for each election
Party Realignments
Occurs when a new issue of utmost importance
cuts across existing party divisions and replaces
old ID issues
 #1: 1800: 1st peaceful transfer of power
 #2: 1828: Jackson victory
 #3: 1860: 4 way race, Dems split, Lincoln wins
 #4: 1896: Populist attempt to hijack system
Republicans—urban interests, hard money,
protective tariffs, Democrats for farmers, rural
areas
 #5: 1932: FDR’s New Deal; big government,
blacks switch alliances
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Ballots
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Voting by voice used to be the rule
Australian Ballot (18561900):
Printed at public expense
Lists names of candidates
Only given out at polls
Voted in secret
Original form: Office-Group ballot (lists candidates for
each office grouped together, a.k.a. Massachusetts
Ballot). Encourages party decline and split ticket
voting.
Indiana ballot (or party-column ballot) makes it easy
to straight-ticket vote
Kinds of Campaign Issues
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Position issues—abortion, National Health Care.
Issues where reasonable people can disagree.
Valence Issues —economy, for example. We
don’t have one party advocating a good
economy, and other calling for bad times.
Avoiding nuclear war can also be a valence
issue (Goldwater 1964)
TV spots are short—valence issues essential
Do Elections Have Real Results?
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In Parliamentary systems, absolutely
In the US, rarely..realigning elections do
tend to have an impact, but generally
most election promises are not fulfilled
Most substantial changes tend to stay,
however…social security, Head Start,
elimination of affirmative action
Getting Nominated
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Self-Announcement
By Petition (local elec. Like school board)
Caucus: A group of like-minded persons who meet to select the
candidates they will support in the upcoming election
Convention
Direct Primary (now supersedes others):
Can be CLOSED, OPEN, or BLANKET
Closed primary: only registered party members may vote
Open primary: all voters may vote, but may not split ticket
(Michigan)
Blanket: now illegal, vote in both primaries
Some states require runoff primary
Why Closed Primaries?
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Prevents one party from “raiding” the
other’s primary
Makes candidates more responsive to their
party
Opponents claim they jeopardize secrecy
and tend to exclude independents
Iowa Caucuses
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Held in February of Presidential election yr
Candidates must do well or money will dry up
Leader must win; 2nd-3rd can improve status
markedly by winning
Winners tend to be ideologically extreme
Eventual winners often regret statements made
in Iowa/NH!
Southern states counter with “Super Tuesday” in
March
Federal Election Regulations
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Myth: Feds run elections
Truth: Elections are state-run, even for Federal offices
Congress may fix time and place of elections
Debates: set up by nonpartisan “Commission on
Presidential Debates”
Debates usually only help challenger. (Once people
realized Reagan was reasonable, he won….ditto for Bush
43 on Foreign Policy)
PACs bound by certain limitations—
(1) At least 50 voluntary members
(2) Give to at least 5 federal candidates
(3) Limited to giving $5,000 per election per candidate,
or more than $15,000 per year to any political party
The Coattail Effect
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Strong Presidential candidates can sway
voters to vote for their party.
Best example: Reagan (1984) brought in a
Republican Senate—led to confirmations
of Scalia and Rehnquist as CJ
Reverse coattail is possible too! Examples
include McGovern (1972), Carter (1980)
Effects of Presidential Primaries
(Old AP question)
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Longer campaigns/CANDIDATE CENTERED—see WAV
Increased cost
Early fun raising essential for momentum
Media coverage is horserace type
Iowa/NH crucial
Ticket balancing has changed: VP now chosen for ideological balance rather
than geographical
New breed of prof. consultants
Running for election is a full-time job
Primaries moved to earlier dates
Conventions haven’t been contentious since 1976
MORE EXTREMIST CANDIDATES
Process more representative
Chapter 10 Learning Objectives
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After reading and reviewing the material in this chapter, the student should
be able to do each of the following:
1.
Demonstrate the differences between the party-oriented campaigns of
the nineteenth century and the candidate-oriented ones of today,
contrasting the major elements of successful campaigns.
2.
Discuss how important campaign funding is to election outcomes,
what the major sources of such funding are under current laws and how
successful reform legislation has been in removing improper monetary
influences from United States elections.
3.
Outline the processes for electing presidents and for electing
members of Congress.
4.
Describe what the Democrats and Republicans each must do to put
together a successful national coalition to win an election.
5.
Outline the major arguments on either side of the question of whether
elections do or do not result in major changes in public policy in the United
States.