ENERGY
PHASE II: UNIT ENERGY SAVINGS
(UES) MEASURE COMPLIANCE: RTF
MEETING
Navigant Presentation
Presented by Mohit Singh- Chhabra, Ryan Firestone and Kevin
Cooney
September 18, 2012
Navigant Reference: 150283
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
D I S P U T E S & I N V E S T I G AT I O N S • E C O N O M I C S • F I N A N C I A L A D V I S O RY • M A N A G E M E N T C O N S U LT I N G
Content of Report
This presentation was prepared by Navigant Consulting, Inc. exclusively for the benefit and internal use
of Regional Technical Forum and/or its affiliates or subsidiaries. No part of it may be circulated, quoted,
or reproduced for distribution outside these organization(s) without prior written approval from
Navigant Consulting, Inc. The work presented in this report represents our best efforts and judgments
based on the information available at the time this report was prepared. Navigant Consulting, Inc. is not
responsible for the reader’s use of, or reliance upon, the report, nor any decisions based on the report.
NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. MAKES NO REPRESENTATIONS OR WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED
OR IMPLIED.
Readers of the report are advised that they assume all liabilities incurred by them, or third parties, as a
result of their reliance on the report, or the data, information, findings and opinions contained in the
report.
June 21, 2012
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved. Navigant Consulting is not a certified public accounting firm and does not provide audit, attest, or public
accounting services. See www.navigantconsulting.com/licensing for a complete listing of private investigator licenses. Investment banking, private placement,
merger, acquisition and divestiture services offered through Navigant Capital Advisors, LLC., Member FINRA/SIPC.
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
1
ENERGY
Contents
Table of Contents
1
Introductions
2
Overview of Measures to Brought into
Compliance
3
Domestic Hot Water Heaters
4
Residential Freezers
5
Residential Clothes Washers
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
2
ENERGY
Contents
Table of Contents
1
Introductions
2
Overview of Measures to Brought into
Compliance
3
Domestic Hot Water Heaters
4
Residential Freezers
5
Residential Clothes Washers
5
Conclusions & Next Steps
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
3
ENERGY
Introductions
The Navigant Team Working on Updating Measure Workbooks:
Kevin Cooney
Managing Director In-Charge
Ryan Firestone
Mohit Singh-Chhabra
Project Advisor
Project Manager
A
Angie Lee
Christian Douglass
Eric Shum
Engineer
Engineer
Engineer
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
4
ENERGY
Contents
Table of Contents
1
Introductions
2
Overview of Measures to Brought into
Compliance
3
Domestic Hot Water Heaters
4
Residential Freezers
5
Residential Clothes Washers
5
Conclusions & Next Steps
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
5
ENERGY
Overview
Updates Required to Bring Measures Into Compliance
•
The Recommendation memoranda outlined updates required to bring the ten UES
measures into compliance. These actions, are presented below for the first three
measures completed:
Priority
Level
Measure
Category
Domestic Hot Water Heater
DHW
1
Freezers
Appliance
1
Clothes Washers
Appliance
1
Commercial Refrigerators & Freezers
Appliance
2
Manufactured Housing Duct Sealing
Weatherization
2
Refrigerator Recycling
Appliance
2
Specialty CFL and LED Down-lights
Lighting
2
Green Motor Rewind
Motor
3
Dishwashers
Appliance
3
Single Family Heat Pump Upgrades
Space Heat
3
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
6
ENERGY
Contents
Table of Contents
1
Introductions
2
Overview of Measures to Brought into
Compliance
3
Domestic Hot Water Heaters
4
Residential Freezers
5
Residential Clothes Washers
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
7
ENERGY
Domestic Hot Water Heaters
Measure Classification and Properties
Market Sector
Residential
Market Segment
All
Measure Category
Domestic Hot Water
Measure Description
Sunset Criteria
Replace existing or new construction electric residential-type storage hot water heater with an efficient electric
storage hot water heater
New Federal Standards will be effective April 16, 2015; at this time updates should be applied to the datasets that
establish the average baseline and measure EF.
ProCostRTFTemplate257f_v3_9_RES_DHW 08.28.12 ESv08 FINAL POST PRESENTATION CHANGES MADE
Primary Workbook PROCOST RUN.xlsm
Linked Workbooks MC_AND_LOADSHAPE_6P.XLS
Seven measures (Six size ranges, ranging between 25 and 120 gallons tank size, and one measure with same size
Number of
range (<=45gal and <55gal) but decreased efficiency) using one UES component. See Measure Identifiers for size
Measures, and UES ranges.
Components
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
8
ENERGY
Domestic Hot Water Heaters
Actions Taken to Bring Measure Into Compliance
Task
Update Workbook Structure and Formulae by removing
references to commercial water heaters, change inactive and
unused links.
Documentation updates to include sourcing the AHRI (Air
Conditioning, Heating, and refrigeration Institute) dataset
used and document the assumed water heater input power.
Task Source
Reccomendation
Memo
Reccomendation
Memo
Notes
Completed as per reccomendation
Completed as per reccomendation
The current datasets for efficient and baseline EF (Energy
Reccomendation Downloaded and updated with new AHRI data.
Factor) input parameters need to be reviewed and updated
Memo
Another sunset period should revolve around new federal
standards for electric storage water heaters that will
become effective April 16, 2015
Reccomendation
Memo
This changed measure incremental cost and UES
Completed as per reccomendation
Update EUL Summary Table
NWPCC
Completed as per guidelines
Update Cost Summary Table
NWPCC
Completed as per guidelines
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
9
ENERGY
Domestic Hot Water Heaters
Savings Results Comparison
Before and After Update Savings Comparison
200
180
Savings (kWh/year)
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
>= 25 gallons,
<35 gallons
>= 35 gallons,
<45 gallons
>= 45 gallons,
<55 gallons
>= 45 gallons, >= 55 gallons,
<55
<75 gallons
gallons_EF0.94+
Prior to Update
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
>= 75 gallons,
<100 gallons
>= 100 gallons,
<120 gallons
Current Update
10
ENERGY
Domestic Hot Water Heaters
Incremental Cost Results Comparison
Before and After Update Incremental Cost Comparison
100
90
Incremental Cost ($/Unit)
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
>= 25 gallons,
<35 gallons
>= 35 gallons,
<45 gallons
>= 45 gallons,
<55 gallons
>= 45 gallons, >= 55 gallons,
<55
<75 gallons
gallons_EF0.94+
Prior to Update
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
>= 75 gallons,
<100 gallons
>= 100 gallons,
<120 gallons
Current Update
11
ENERGY
Domestic Hot Water Heaters
TRC Results Comparison
Before and After Update TRC Comparison
3
TRC Benefit to Cost Ratio
3
2
2
1
1
0
>= 25 gallons,
<35 gallons
>= 35 gallons,
<45 gallons
>= 45 gallons,
<55 gallons
>= 45 gallons, >= 55 gallons,
<55
<75 gallons
gallons_EF0.94+
Prior to Update
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
>= 75 gallons,
<100 gallons
>= 100 gallons,
<120 gallons
Current Update
12
ENERGY
RTF Proposed Motion:
I _________ move that the RTF approve the DHW UES Measure to “Proven” with a sunset date of April
16, 2015.
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
13
ENERGY
Contents
Table of Contents
1
Introductions
2
Overview of Measures to Brought into
Compliance
3
Domestic Hot Water Heaters
4
Residential Freezers
5
Residential Clothes Washers
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
14
ENERGY
Residential Freezers
Measure Description and Properties
Market Sector
Residential
Market Segment
All Residential Dwelling Types
Measure Category
Appliances - Refrigeration
Upgrade to Energy Star Freezer (except Compact)
Measure Description
Sunset Criteria
Primary Workbook
Linked Workbooks
Number of Measures, and UES
Components
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
1/1/2013 (New Energy Star Standards come in effect)
ResFreezerFY10v2_0
No External links
30 Measures, 1 UES Component
15
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Residential Freezers
Actions Taken to Bring Measure Into Compliance
• Enhanced documentation for assumptions and sources.
• Updated cost and energy consumption values based on latest available information.
• Streamlined workbook to only present data necessary for analysis.
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
16
ENERGY
Residential Freezers
Point for Discussion: Adjusted Volumes of Residential Freezers
Source
Vintage
AHAM
2008
RBSA
2012
Adjusted Volume
• 20.89 cu.ft (value prior to update)
• Adjusted volume disaggregated by two configurations
•Chest freezers: 26.8 cu. ft
•Upright freezers: 31.3 cu. ft
Source: CEC Database, 2012*
* Current source for update
• Adjusted volumes from the CEC Database closely resemble the RBSA adjusted volumes with the exception of Tier 2
and Tier 4 upright freezers in which the values in the CEC database are smaller.
• No data available for Tier 2-Tier 5 upright manual configurations, in which adjusted volumes of upright auto freezers
of the same tier are used.
• The adjusted volume table is in the “Baseline and Efficient Case” tab of the Residential Freezer workbook.
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
17
ENERGY
Residential Freezers-Results Comparison
Savings Results Comparison
Before and After Update Savings Comparison
Savings (kwh/year)
250
200
150
100
50
0
Any T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 Any T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 Any T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 Any T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 Any T1 T2 T3 T4 T5
Chest, Any Defrost
Upright, Automatic
Defrost
Upright, Manual Defrost
Prior to Update
Upright, Any Defrost
Any Freezer
Current Update
Any= no Tier; T1= Tier 1 (10%-15% more efficient than federal standard ; T2= Tier2 (15%-20% more efficient than federal
standard); T3= Tier 3 (20%-25% more efficient than federal standard);T4-Tier 4; (25%-30% more efficient than federal
standard);T5= Tier 5 (30%-35% more efficient than federal standard)
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
18
ENERGY
Residential Freezers-Results Comparison
Incremental Cost Results Comparison
Before and After Update Incremental Cost Comparison
Incremental Cost ($/Unit)
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Any T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 Any T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 Any T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 Any T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 Any T1 T2 T3 T4 T5
Chest, Any Defrost
Upright, Automatic
Defrost
Upright, Manual Defrost
Prior to Update
Upright, Any Defrost
Any Freezer
Current Update
Any= no Tier; T1= Tier 1 (10%-15% more efficient than federal standard ; T2= Tier2 (15%-20% more efficient than federal
standard); T3= Tier 3 (20%-25% more efficient than federal standard);T4-Tier 4; (25%-30% more efficient than federal
standard);T5= Tier 5 (30%-35% more efficient than federal standard)
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
19
ENERGY
Residential Freezers-Results Comparison
TRC Results Comparison
Before and After Update TRC Comparison
TRC Benefit to Cost Ratio
25
20
15
10
5
0
Any T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 Any T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 Any T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 Any T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 Any T1 T2 T3 T4 T5
Chest, Any Defrost
Upright, Automatic
Defrost
Upright, Manual Defrost
Prior to Update
Upright, Any Defrost
Any Freezer
Current Update
Any= no Tier; T1= Tier 1 (10%-15% more efficient than federal standard ; T2= Tier2 (15%-20% more efficient than federal
standard); T3= Tier 3 (20%-25% more efficient than federal standard);T4-Tier 4; (25%-30% more efficient than federal
standard);T5= Tier 5 (30%-35% more efficient than federal standard)
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
20
ENERGY
Residential Freezers
Increased residential freezer baseline efficiency reduces savings for
most measures while reducing incremental costs for all measures except
Tier 5 measures.
• Residential freezers have become more efficient since the last freezer review, bringing
the baseline freezer efficiency to be 5% more efficient than federal standard (as opposed
to 2% more efficient than federal standard from last review).
• The increased baseline efficiency reduced savings for most measures, some measures
show increase in savings due to the updated adjusted volume.
• Incremental costs for all Tiers except Tier 5 measures decreased.
•TRC’s of all measures are still greater than 1.0.
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
21
ENERGY
RTF Proposed Motion:
“I _________ move that the RTF approve the Residential Freezer UES Measure to “Proven” with a sunset
date of January 1, 2013”
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
22
ENERGY
Contents
Table of Contents
1
Introductions
2
Overview of Measures to Brought into
Compliance
3
Domestic Hot Water Heaters
4
Residential Freezers
5
Residential Clothes Washers
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
23
ENERGY
Residential Clothes Washers
Measure Description and Properties
Market Sector
Residential
Market Segment
All Residential Dwelling Types
Measure Category
Appliances
Measure Description
Residential Clothes Washer Upgrades
Sunset Criteria
November 1, 2013 ( New Energy Star Criteria)
Primary Workbook
ResClothesWashersSF_ProCostRTFTemplate257f_v
3_9_9.10.2012 v7.xlsm
Linked Workbooks
No External links
Number of Measures, and UES
Components
20 Measures, 3 UES Components
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
24
ENERGY
Residential Clothes Washers
Actions Taken to Bring Measure Into Compliance
Task
Task Source
Work-book Calculation Errors need to be corrected; these
Reccomendation
include errors in wastewater energy savings calculations.
Memo
Documentation Updates
Reccomendation
Memo
Notes
-
Investigate the possibility of including a climate zone
Reccomendation This is not required - Navigant explored the
identifier to the measure definition
Memo
Input parameters need to be updated by incorporating the
Reccomendation
most recent CEC data.
Memo
Clotheswasher load per year need to be investigated
Reccomendation
Memo
Update the EUL of the measure
NWPCC
Update EUL Summary Table
NWPCC
Update cost of incented clothes washers from a utility
program
Navigant's proposed Cost Analysis
Update Cost Summary Table
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
NWPCC
Navigant/
NWPCC
NWPCC
possibility
Completed
RBSA draft provided this value.
Sourced the EUL (14 years) from DOE Clothes
Washer Technical Support Document
Completed as per guidelines
EnergyTrust of Oregon provided data for 2003 2012.
For Discussion
Completed as per guidelines
25
ENERGY
Residential Clothes Washers
Actions Taken Since Last RTF Meeting (8/21/2012)
•
•
Expanded Northwest clothes washer retail cost dataset.
•
Last meeting, all clothes washers available at Home Depot (N = 73 machines) in
Portland, Oregon were used to inform machine cost.
•
Since the last RTF meeting, Navigant added all front- and top-load machine costs
from Sears of Portland, OR (N = 96 machines) and Lowes of Portland, OR (N = 80
machines) for a total of 249 cost data points.
Updated clothes washer screening algorithm to screen out all CEC database clothes
washers not meeting the current federal standard for water factor (9.5).
•
This resulted in an average CEC database (unique models only) MEF of 2.33. In the
previous res clothes washer workbook adopted by the RTF, the average CEC
database MEF was 1.94.
•
In addition, the average MEF of 2.33 places the estimated Northwest MEF market
average above the average MEF of CEE Tier 1, CEE Tier 2, and WA State Tier 1.
•
Therefore, the efficiency tiers currently considered here are Energy Star, CEE Tier 3,
WA State Tier 2, and Energy Star Top 10%.
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
26
ENERGY
Residential Freezers-Results Comparison
Savings Results Comparison
Before and After Update Savings Comparison
Savings (kwh/year)
250
200
150
100
50
0
E, E E, G G, E G, G Any E, E E, G G, E G, G Any E, E E, G G, E G, G Any E, E E, G G, E G, G Any
Energy Star
CEE Tier 3
WA State Tier 2
Prior to Update
Energy Star Top 10%
Current Update
E, E = Electric DHW, Electric Dryer; E, G = Electric DHW, Gas Dryer; G, E = Gas DHW, Electric Dryer;
G, G = Gas DHW, Gas Dryer; Any = Any DHW, Any Dryer
Note: The previously adopted res clothes washer workbook does not have an efficiency tier equivalent to the current WA
State Tier 2.
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
27
ENERGY
Residential Freezers-Results Comparison
Incremental Cost Results Comparison
Before and After Update Incremental Cost Comparison
Incremental Cost ($/Unit)
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
E, E E, G G, E G, G Any E, E E, G G, E G, G Any E, E E, G G, E G, G Any E, E E, G G, E G, G Any
Energy Star
CEE Tier 3
WA State Tier 2
Prior to Update
Energy Star Top 10%
Current Update
E, E = Electric DHW, Electric Dryer; E, G = Electric DHW, Gas Dryer; G, E = Gas DHW, Electric Dryer;
G, G = Gas DHW, Gas Dryer; Any = Any DHW, Any Dryer
Note: The previously adopted res clothes washer workbook does not have an efficiency tier equivalent to the current WA
State Tier 2.
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
28
ENERGY
Residential Freezers-Results Comparison
TRC Results Comparison
Before and After Update TRC Comparison
TRC Benefit to Cost Ratio
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
E, E E, G G, E G, G Any E, E E, G G, E G, G Any E, E E, G G, E G, G Any E, E E, G G, E G, G Any
Energy Star
CEE Tier 3
WA State Tier 2
Prior to Update
Energy Star Top 10%
Current Update
E, E = Electric DHW, Electric Dryer; E, G = Electric DHW, Gas Dryer; G, E = Gas DHW, Electric Dryer;
G, G = Gas DHW, Gas Dryer; Any = Any DHW, Any Dryer
Note: The previously adopted res clothes washer workbook does not have an efficiency tier equivalent to the current WA
State Tier 2.
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
29
ENERGY
RTF Proposed Motion:
“I _________ move that the RTF approve the Residential Clotheswasher UES Measure to “Proven” with a
sunset date of November 1, 2013
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
30
ENERGY