ENERGY
Reference Group Member
Presentation
Presented by Feng Zhao
28, August, 2013
©2013 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
D I S P U T E S & I N V E S T I G AT I O N S • E C O N O M I C S • F I N A N C I A L A D V I S O RY • M A N A G E M E N T C O N S U LT I N G
Introduction to Navigant
Navigant is a global consulting firm providing management consulting,
economics, financial advisory, and disputes & investigations support.
Navigant Consulting
(2,850 Employees)
Energy Practice
(390 Employees)
Renewable Energy
(60 Employees)
• Four business areas:
management
consulting, economics,
financial advisory, and
disputes &
investigations
• Publicly traded since
1996 (NYSE: NCI)
• 2012 revenues =
$845 million
• 35 offices in North
America, Europe, and
Asia
• Power Systems,
Markets and Pricing
• Emerging
Technologies and
Business Strategy
• Energy Efficiency &
Demand Side
Management
• Energy Efficiency
Policy & Analysis
• Energy UK
• Market Intelligence
Professionals
• 60 staff, many with over
25 years experience in RE
• Exceptional depth and
breadth of market &
technology expertise
• Advanced degrees in
engineering, law, and
business
Global Practice
• Over 200 RE engagements
world wide in last 3 yrs
• Public and private sector
clients in 10+ countries
• 25% of clients are non-U.S.
Named "Best Advisory –
Renewable Energy" in the 9th
and 10th Annual Environmental
Finance and Carbon Finance
Market Surveys
©2013 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
1
ENERGY
Introduction to Navigant
We support utilities, project developers, manufacturers, and investors
through the entire project life cycle.
Project Life Cycle
Strategy
• Go-to-Market Strategy
• Resource, Technology &
Market Assessment
• REC and Energy Forward
Price Curves
• Asset & Portfolio
Modeling & Valuation
• Business Model
Development and
Analysis
• M&A Support
• Policy Analysis
©2013 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
Development Support
• Independent Engineer
Review
• Company/Technology
Due Diligence
• Transmission and
Interconnection Analysis
• Project Finance and
Closing Support
• RFP Review and Proposal
Evaluations
• PPA Negotiations
Operational
Improvement
• Benchmarking Performance and Cost
• NERC Reporting
• Post-Warranty Operations
Strategy
• Business Planning
• Performance
Bonus/Penalty
Determination
• Procurement &
Contracting Best Practices
2
ENERGY
Introduction to Navigant
BTM offers multiple wind market reports and is also active in global
wind consulting.
» World Market Update: guided wind related investments for 18 years and have
been called the independent "bible" for the wind energy industry. Provides a
detailed overview and forecast of the global wind market.
» Supply Chain Assessment: focuses on each key component and material used
in wind turbine manufacturing and examines the supply/demand relationship.
» Offshore Report: provides detail on the state of the offshore wind market.
©2013 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
3
ENERGY
Offshore Wind » Market Forecast
BTM is forecasting that 55.7 GW of offshore wind will be installed in
Europe in the next 10 years, concentrated in the U.K. & Germany.
European Offshore Wind Installations [MW]
[MW]
U.K.
Denmark
Netherlands
Germany
Ireland
Belgium
Sweden
Norway
France
Finland
Total
Accumulated
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
1,150
400
750
750
78
1,250
650
200
278
1,500
1,000
100
300
1,600
2,000
300
200
1,700
111
48
3
3
216
-
165
86
10
-
150
24
250
-
400
320
850
200
2,500
284
1,750
433
567
846
236
3,250
348
200
2,000
290
145
348
58
580
348
4,000
285
368
2,250
237
119
474
95
474
308
3,750
260
2,750
463
93
463
324
3,500
3,000
215
107
537
403
2,465
7,256
2,294
9,550
2,889
12,439
3,424
15,863
5,970
21,833
6,616
28,449
7,567
36,016
8,610
44,626
8,103
52,729
‘13-’22
7,762
22,550
1917
1684
18550
527
1589
2671
390
4000
1822
55,700
60,491
Validity of 150GW
Offshore by 2030?
Unlikely! Need 2030
targets before such
ambitious targets can be
expected.
©2013 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
4
ENERGY
Offshore Wind » Analysis of global offshore wind turbine suppliers
Road map of offshore wind turbine technology development 1991-2015
Source: BTM Consult- A Part of Navigant, March 2013
©2013 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
5
ENERGY
Offshore Wind » Balance of Supply
Item
Constraint
Date
Export
Cables
2017
Jack-up
Vessels
2016
Heavy Lift
Vessels
2016
Cable Laying
Vessels
2015
Ports
2016
Segments Constrained
 The situation for supply of export depends on whether XLPE can
succeed for HVDC application.
 For the projection period, it is expected that XLPE will pass the test
period and become an alternative for MI cables.
 Main concern is >5MW projects and water depth >40m. Also limited
experienced & skilled staff (note: competing with O&G industry).
 During the forecast period, 3rd generation, tailor made jack-up
vessels dedicated for the offshore wind industry are expected to
come online, hence no constraint from 2018 onwards. Dependent
upon the long-term policy stability.
 Europe doesn’t have dedicated HLV and must compete with
offshore O&G.
 Limited experienced & skilled staff (also competing with O&G
industry).
 Concern remains over both vessel and staff availability in the 20182022 period as decommissioning activities in North Sea are expected
to increase.
 Challenge due to limited vessel numbers and for projects >40m
depth, DP requirement necessary.
 Limited experienced & skilled staff (note: competing with O&G
industry).
 Investment in new cable laying vessels over the next 3-5 years is
expected, thus alleviating the supply chain constraints in the
prediction period.
 Policy certainty is required to secure enough investment, needed
before offshore industry takes off.
 Need enough ports adapted and dedicated to offshore wind instead
of multi-purpose ports.
 >50 EU ports capable of adaptation for offshore wind. If offshore
wind grows as forecasted, further port-level investment is expected.
©2013 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
Supply vs. Demand Situation
Current
Expect. 2014 Expect. 2018 – 2017
2022
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
6
ENERGY
Offshore Wind » Selected offshore wind consulting tasks
©2013 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
7
ENERGY
Key
CONTACTS
©2010 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
©2013
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
Feng Zhao
Associate Director
Copenhagen, Denmark
+4531135677
feng.zhao@navigant.com
Bruce Hamilton
Director
California, USA
+1 503 476 2711
bruce.hamilton@navigant.com
Birger Madsen
Director
Copenhagen, Denmark
+4597325299
birger.madsen@navigant.com
Andy Wickless
Associate Director
Boulder, USA
+1 303 782 2464
andy.wickless@navigant.com
Per Krogsgaard
Director
Copenhagen, Denmark
+4597325299
per.krogsgaard@navigant.com
Charlie Block
Associate Director
Boulder, USA
+1 303 782 2540
bruce.hamilton@navigant.com
8
ENERGY