WMRC Sustainability Seminar
Sustainability, Energy, and the
Energy/Water Nexus
Donald Fournier
Building Research Council
School of Architecture
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Overview
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Background (US and
World Energy
situation).
Sustainability and the
tech fix.
Can we get there?
The Energy Water/
Nexus.
Source: DOE/EIA International Energy Outlook 2007
World Energy Use (Quads)
Source: DOE/EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2007
US Energy Use (Quads)
Source: DOE/EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2006
US Electric Generation by Fuel
Billion kWh
2006 – 4,065 B kWh
Should be 3927 B kWh
(2 years ahead)
Source:
ASPO Sep 2006
Actual Production
2003 – 79.62 Mbd
2004 – 83.12 Mbd
2005 – 84.63 Mbd
2006 – 84.60 Mbd
2007 – 84.34 Mbd
DOE/EIA, November 2007
Petroleum Prices
Natural Gas Prices
Source: DOE/EIA 2007 (thru August)
Natural Gas Prices
Source: DOE/EIA 2007
Coal Prices
U.S. Energy Flows 2006
69%
22%
Source: DOE/EIA 2007
Renewable Energy
US Energy Production Last year:
PV grew 33%
Wind grew 27%
Biofuels grew >23%
Coal grew 2.5%
Natural Gas grew 2.3%
Oil grew 1.0%
Nuclear Electric grew 1.0%
Atmospheric CO2
Carbon Emissions
“Unknowingly, the
architecture and
building community is
responsible for almost
half of all U.S.
greenhouse gas
emissions annually.
Globally the
percentage is even
greater.”
US Energy Information Administration
statistics Graphic Published first in Metropolis
Magazine, October 2003 Issue
Energy Trends in Buildings
Average energy consumption (Btu/sq. ft)
Before 1920
80,127
1920 – 1945
90,234
1946 – 1959
80,198
1960 – 1969
90,976
1970 – 1979
94,968
1980 – 1989
100,077
1990 – 1999
88,834
2000 – 2003
79,703
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Source: EIA/DOE 2006 Energy Book
They predict no improvement in
efficiency for the next 30 years for new
or existing!
What are they smoking???? Or ????
Opportunity for Change
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Each year in the United States, we tear down
approximately 1.75 billion square feet of buildings,
renovate 5 billion square feet, and build new
another 5 billion square feet.
During the next 30 years, some 50 billion square
feet will be torn down, some 150 billion will be
renovated, and another 150 billion will be built
new.
By 2030, three-quarters of the built environment
will be either new or renovated.
AIA COTE: Ecology and Design: Ecological Literacy in Architecture
Education, 2006
AIA 2030 Position Statement
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Promote sustainable design including
resource conservation to achieve a minimum
50 percent reduction from the current level of
consumption of fossil fuels used to construct
and operate new and renovated buildings by
the year 2010, and promote further
reductions of remaining fossil fuel
consumption by 10 percent or more in each
of the following five years.
Source: AIA November 2005
AIA 2010 Goals
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AIA baseline is ENERGY STAR® Target Finder.
This is the average building of that type in that weather
region.
Average Office building in Chicago uses:
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92.3 kBtu/sf (5,000 sf)
101.5 kBtu/sf (20,000 sf)
113.3 kBtu/sf (100,000 sf)
Pretty weak standard!
ASHRAE Std 90.1-1999 yields about 67 kBtu/sf for an
office building (including plug loads).
If we target 30% below that (about 47 kBtu/sf), you will
get an AIA 2010 building.
ASHRAE Actions
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Advanced Energy Design Guides:
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30%, 50%, 75%, then Net Zero Energy
Small Buildings (<20,000sf)
Office, Retail, K-12 Schools, Warehouses, Highway
Lodging, High-rise Residential, and Existing
Buildings.
Schedule:
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Complete all 30% guides by 2008.
Complete all 50% guides by 2011.
Complete all 70% guides by 2016.
Complete “net-zero” guidance 2020.
ASHRAE Actions/Initiatives
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Standard 90.1-2007 Energy Standard for
Buildings Except Low-Rise Residential Bldgs
- 5 to -7% below 2004.
Standard 90.1-2010 Energy Standard for
Buildings Except Low-Rise Residential Bldgs
30 percent reduction from 90.1-2004.
California requiring commercial buildings to
be net zero energy by 2020 and residential
building to be net zero energy by 2030.
Why Be Energy Efficient?
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Reduce operating costs.
Stabilize atmospheric carbon & reduce global
climate change impacts.
Improve the quality of life in our buildings and
communities.
The energy efficiency policies, building and
appliance codes, incentives, and technology
improvements in the U.S. since the mid-1970s now
avoid the use of approximately:
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40 quadrillion Btu—roughly 40 percent of the energy
currently consumed.
Emission of more than 2 billion tons of CO2 per year.
Energy Efficiency
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The cost of saving energy is going down while
the price of energy is going up.
Efficiency is the cleanest, cheapest, safest,
and most secure source energy we have.
These savings from energy efficiency to date
have not yet come close to tapping the full
potential for savings.
Incentives are available under EPAct 2005 to
get deductions and tax credits for energy
efficiency and renewable energy.
Energy Opportunities
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SEDAC has looked at about 200 commercial
buildings.
Potential energy savings ranged from a high
of 80% to a low of 3%for existing buildings
and between 86% and 12% for new designs.
Data from 70 existing buildings shows:
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32% energy savings.
34% energy cost savings.
Data from 39 new building designs shows:
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41% energy savings.
38% energy cost savings.
Implications
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We estimate is costs a client about $68/million Btu
to save energy. This is heavily weighted towards
retrofits.
Our program of analysis costs about $16/million
Btu of recommended savings.
Current energy costs are around $11/MBtu of
Natural Gas and $27/MBtu of Electricity.
Energy savings are about 1/3 electricity and 2/3
natural gas.
Weighted cost of about $17 with a 4 year payback.
(Not good enough for many businesses.)
Sustainability for a Region
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Analyzed Fort Bragg, Fayetteville, NC,
and the eight counties around it.
Modeled dynamic urban growth for 35
years into the future.
Develop energy and water projections
associated with that growth based on
business as usual.
Analyzed potential interventions to
change the future.
Project Future Change
Land Use Evolution and
Impact Assessment Model
(LEAM)
Columbus/Ft Benning
Fort Bragg
2000-2035
3% population growth per year
Perform Gap Analysis
2030
2000
+ 500,000 population
+ 200,000 households
+ 260 million sq. ft. of
commercial/industrial
- 19,000 acres of agriculture
- 34,000 acres of forest
The Concept
Preferred Future State
Current State
Possible Future
Outcomes
resulting from
actions taken
along the way
Current-Trend
Energy Model
Comm Energy Factors
Commercial Trans
New Comm Ind Bldgs
Residentail Trans
Public Transit
Comm Ind Energy Usage
Existing Comercial
Industrial Bldg Stock
Transportation Energy Usage
Renewables
Land Use Change
TOTAL ENERGY USAGE
Residential Energy Usage
Infrastructure Energy Usage
Existing Residential Bldg Stock
Agricultural Energy Usage
Renewables
New Residential Bldgs
Agricultural Energy Factors
Residential Energy Factors
Land Use Change
Agricultural Lands
Total Energy
41% Increase
Energy Interventions
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Building Code Adoption over time:
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Existing Building Initiatives:
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2015 – 20% Target
2025 – 40% Target
Agricultural Initiatives:
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2010 – 30% Reduction
2015 – 50% Reduction
2020 – 75% Reduction
2025 – Net Zero Energy Buildings
2015 – Energy Efficiency 35% Potential
2015 – Renewable Energy 25% Potential
Transportation Initiatives (2012 – 40%):
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Biofuels
GHG Standards
HEV/PHEV Penetration
Energy Efficiency And Renewables
Energy Intervention
Scenario
Air Emissions Model
Pollution Control Porgrams
Nonpoint Source Emissions
Technology Change
AIR EMISSIONS
Emission Factors
Total Energy Consumption
Point Source Emiisions
Built Environment
LandUse Change
Airshed Cleansing
Carbon Sequestration
Agriculture
Forests
A 48% Increase
Air Emissions
Air Emissions
Regional CO2 Implications
Water Model
Comm Ind Water Usage
Comm Ind Water Factors
TOTAL WATER USAGE
New Comm Ind Bldgs
Existing Comercial
Industrial Bldg Stock
Infrastructure Water Losses
Conservation Practices
Agricultural Water Usage
Land Use Change
Residential Water Usage
Agricultural Water Factors
Existing Residential Bldg Stock
Conservation Practices
New Residential Bldgs
Agricultural Lands
Residential Water Factors
Land Use Change
Intervention BMPs
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Fort Bragg (2004)
Public System Water Loss
Control (2010)
Commercial/Industrial Water
Conservation Program (2012)
Resident Water Conservation
Program (2015)
Agricultural Water
Conservation Program (2018)
Regional Actions
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Regional intervention requires long tern
approached with regional stakeholders to
enable planning initiatives.
Intervention done in a timely manner can
made a tremendous difference in a region.
The trick is getting all the vested interests to
engage and actually start to change policy for
a sustainable future
Incentives are required to get people to adopt
new technology and new ways.
Water is more intractable than energy.
Earth’s Water
Energy/Water Nexus
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The major fresh water consuming sectors are not
buildings – they are agriculture and thermoelectric
power.
Agriculture and thermoelectric use about 40%
each, while buildings use about 12% of the supply.
Our energy security is closely linked to the state of
our water resources. Water resources are require
to achieve any sort of energy security in the years
and decades ahead.
Our water security cannot be guaranteed without
careful attention to related energy issues. The two
issues are inextricably linked.
Fresh Water in the US
USGS 2004
All numbers in MGD
Energy/Water Nexus
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Each kilowatt hour of electricity requires about
27 gallons of water.
500 MW coal-fired power plant requires over 12
million gallons per hour of water for cooling and
other process requirements such as scrubbing
sulfur dioxide from the stack gases.
Energy security rests on two principles – using
less energy to provide needed services and
having access to technologies that provide a
diverse supply of reliable, affordable and
environmentally sound energy.
Thermoelectric power plants don’t get us there.
Proposed Energy Sources
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New electrical sources that don’t use water:
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Photovoltaics
Wind turbines
Low-head hydro
Coal gasification combined cycle (CGCC)
New energy sources for liquid fuels:
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Tar sands
Oil shale
Coal to liquids
Biofuels – Ethanol & Biodiesel
Source: USDOE, Oct 2007
Ethanol from Corn
Water Associated
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Oil Shale – 1-3 barrels per barrel oil
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Tar Sands – 2-4 barrels/bbl
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Production level of 2.5 million bbl/day
requires 105-315 MGD.
Associated water consumption with
development 58 MGD.
Plus 4% of Canada NG supply.
Coal to Liquids – 5-7 bbl/bbl.
Energy/Water Nexus
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Informs us that the path is not with
traditional energy sources.
We must greatly increase the energy
and water efficiency of our built
environment and agriculture.
Water is going to be a bigger and
tougher problem than energy to solve.
Non-water based renewables must be
our focus.