Characteristics of Evidence-Based
Predictors of Post-School Success
Lauren K. Bethune & David W. Test
N a t i o n a l S e c o n d a r y T r a n s i t io n T e c h n i c a l
A s s i s t a nc e C e n t e r & U N C C h a r l o t t e
Reaching the Summit Conference,
Greensboro, NC, September 16, 2014
Learning Outcomes
 Session will provide participants with:
knowledge and information about NSTTAC’s evidencebased predictors of post-school success
 knowledge of a process to evaluate existing programs
(at the student, school, and district level) to determine
alignment with predictors of post-school success

2
Critical Interrelationships for Achieving PSO
Quality IEPs
(Indicator 13)
Positive PostSchool
Outcomes
(Indicator 14)
3
Staying in
School
(Indicator 2)
Graduating
(Indicator 1)
Good Planning
4
Data-Based Decision Making
State
District
School
Types of Data
 Input
 Process
 Outcomes
 Satisfaction
5
Information
Actionable Data
Types of Decisions to Drive Program Improvement
Address students’ needs (e.g., access to transition
programs, and skill development) relative to youths’ postschool success
Prioritize student needs to improve post-school success
Set and assess progress toward goals in targeted action plan
Develop targeted action plan for implementation
Identify/reallocate resources in reaction to youths’ postschool success
Enhance processes to improve outcomes
Evaluate effectiveness of targeted action plan
Assess whether student needs are being met
Do you know your students’ outcomes?
 Graduation rate?
 Dropout rate?
 Employment rate?
 Enrollment rate?
 How many females are full time?
 How many students in the 18-22 year old
program are working 1 year out of high
school?
 How many students enrolled in postsecondary completed a term?
Preparing for an Informed Conversation
 How is your State and local District using Secondary
Transition Data (i.e., Indicators 1, 2, 13, & 14) for
decision-making, accountability, and transition
program improvement?

Read your State’s SPP and APR, specifically the sections for
Indicators 1, 2, 13, & 14

https://osep.grads360.org/#program/spp-apr-resources
 Contact your State Transition Coordinator to get your
Secondary Transition Data for use with your district
 Who in your district organizes the data for the State?
 Is your school in the data set? How would it compare
if it were?
Data-Based Decision Making
•
How does your students’ data compare to other districts/
schools?
•
What patterns can be seen in the data when looking at type
of disability, gender, high school exit, and race/ethnicity?
•
Are there youth who are engaged after high school at higher
rates? What do you think contributes to the higher rates in
this area?
•
What evidence-based predictors should be reflected in your
students’ IEPs that may encourage better outcomes?
What can you/your organization do to
increase the likelihood of youth being
engaged (i.e., obtaining competitive
employment or higher education) after
high school?
Start with What you Know is the
Best Available Evidence
10
Flash Back to 1984
What to do ?????
Transition Practices Research
Practices!
Micro Level
 Specific
interventions
Predictors!
Macro Level
 Systems
 Programs
 General practices/
skills
What We Have Done
• Reviewed experimental research to identify
evidence-based practices in secondary transition
• Identified 63 evidence-based practices
• Developed over 75 Research
to Practice Lesson
13
Plan Starters
Taxonomy
Category
Evidence-Based
Practices
Research to Practice
Lesson Plan Starters
Student Focused
Planning
6
9
Student
Development
56
98
Family
Involvement
1
0
Program
Structure
9
9
Student Focused-Planning
Teaching Student Knowledge of Transition Planning
Using Whose Future Is It Anyway?
Teaching Student Participation in the IEP Meeting:
 Using Check and Connect
 Using Computer Assisted Instruction
 Using the Self-Advocacy Strategy
 Using the Self-Directed IEP
 Using Published Curricula
In-School Predictors by Outcome Area
Predictor
I-1
I-2
Career Awareness
Community Experiences
Exit Exams/High School Diploma Status
X
X
X
Inclusion in General Education
Interagency Collaboration
Occupational Courses
Paid Employment/Work Experience
Parental Expectations
Parental Involvement
Program of Study
Self-Advocacy/Self-Determination
Self-Care/Independent Living
Social Skills
Student Support
Transition Program
Vocational Education
15 Study
Work
X
X
X
Indicators
I-13
I-14
Education Employment
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
Are you implementing predictors
of post-school success in your
students’ educational programs?
To what extent are you implementing
predictors of post-school success for
students in your district, school
building, or classroom?
How can you determine the level of
implementation?
20
Predictor Self-Assessment:
What it looks like
22
Using the Self-Assessment, Assess
Your Degree of Implementation
23
Self-Determination Definition
Self-Determination is the ability to make
choices, solve problems, set goals, evaluate
options, take initiative to reach one’s goals, and
accept consequences of one's actions.
Rowe, D. A., Alverson, C. Y., Unruh, D., Fowler, C. H., Kellems, R., & Test, D. W. (2013). Operationalizing
evidence-based predictors of post-school success: A Delphi study. Manuscript in revision.
24
Self-Determination Program Characteristics
 Utilize a student driven IEP process to allow students to demonstrate self-




25
awareness, goal setting, problem solving, and self-advocacy.
Collaborate with general education teachers to embed choices into the
general curriculum and daily lessons and provide opportunities for students
to practice self-determination skills.
Teach students to self-monitor self-determination skills (e.g.,
accommodations and modifications) and provide opportunities for students
to practice the self-monitoring strategy.
**As you work with students, take into consideration the cultural nuances
involved in teaching self-determination skills and providing opportunities
to develop self-determination to students from CLD backgrounds.
Ensure all students, including those with significant disabilities, have a
functional communication system to engage in choice making, problemsolving, goal setting, taking initiative to reach goals, and accepting
consequences for one’s actions.
Level of Implementation
 For each program characteristic, consider your
evidence, and decide whether it is:
1.Not
currently being implemented
2.Intermittent implementation
3.Emerging implementation
4.Currently being implemented
26
Sample Rating Implementation
Program Characteristic
Rating
Utilize a student driven IEP process to allow students to
demonstrate self-awareness, goal setting, problem solving, and selfadvocacy.
1
Collaborate with general education teachers to embed choices into
the general curriculum and daily lessons and provide opportunities
for students to practice self-determination skills.
2
Teach students to self-monitor self-determination skills (e.g.,
accommodations and modifications) and provide opportunities for
students to practice the self-monitoring strategy.
**As you work with students, take into consideration the cultural
nuances involved in teaching self-determination skills and providing
opportunities to develop self-determination to students from CLD
backgrounds.
4
27
Types of Evidence
Evidence of Implementation:
What evidence do you have to support your decision
regarding what degree you are implementing the predictor
characteristic?
• No evidence
• Copies of curricula, copies of training materials, in some IEPs
• Referenced in school or district procedures and policies,
documented in IEPs
• Consistent evidence of implementation and impact (e.g.,
documented in IEPs, program evaluation data, marketing
materials)
• Other?
28
Sample Rating & Type of Evidence
Program Characteristic
Rating
Type of Evidence
Utilize a student driven IEP process to
allow students to demonstrate selfawareness, goal setting, problem solving,
and self-advocacy.
1
No evidence
Collaborate with general education
teachers to embed choices into the general
curriculum and daily lessons and provide
opportunities for students to practice selfdetermination skills.
2
Teacher lesson plans include activities in
which students have choices.
Teach students to self-monitor selfdetermination skills (e.g., accommodations
and modifications) and provide
opportunities for students to practice the
self-monitoring strategy.
4
•
•
•
29
At the beginning of the school year,
students write letters to their teachers
describing accommodations needed.
All special education teachers are using
the SDLMI to teach students to set goals,
and monitor progress toward goals.
All students are administered the AIR
self-determination scale each year
Time for Action
• What questions do we still have?
• Where do we go from here?
o When will we answer the unanswered questions?
o Are other additional data needed to answer the
unanswered questions?
o When will we meet again?
o What resources do we need to gather before we
meet again?
o What are the specific action steps we will take
between now and our next meeting?
o Who is missing?
30
Action Planning
 How are you going to answer the questions you have
identified throughout this session related to improving
the outcomes of youth with disabilities you serve?
How do I improve employment outcomes?
 What practices am I currently implementing and how can
they be improved?
 What EBPs need to be implemented to improve the
chance of youth obtaining positive outcomes?
 What are the specific action steps we will take between
now and our next meeting?
 What resources do I need?
 Who else needs to assist me?

31
Time to Plan!!
(macro level)
 Engage with the state/district/school stakeholder group.
 As a group:

Refer back to data, what area(s) is in most need of improvement?

Prioritize area(s) of need.

Choose one Predictor based on priority area from the predictor selfassessment.

Rate the implementation status for each of the characteristics listed.

Identify which characteristics are not currently being implemented.

Is this a state, district, or school level action?

Think about if state/district/school has the resources to implement the
characteristics and the time it will take to get it up and running.

Of these characteristics, choose one to take action on.
Prioritizing Areas of Need
 When examining the program characteristics of self-
determination/self-advocacy, the following characteristics
require action at the school/macro level:

Collaborate with general education teachers to embed
choices into the general curriculum and daily lessons and
provide opportunities for students to practice selfdetermination skills

Provide direct instruction in self-determination using a
structured curriculum or evidence-based instructional
strategy, with guided practice in natural school and
community-based settings
Time to Plan!!
(micro/ student level)
 Engage with IEP team/ other teachers/ student.

Prioritize area(s) of need.

Which predictor area needs the most focus (and aligns
with resources you may access)?

What evidence-based practices reflect or are relevant to
that predictor?

Select one or more to implement within an Annual IEP
goal or Transition activity

Get started
Prioritizing Areas of Need
 When examining the program characteristics of self-determination/self-
advocacy, the following characteristics require action at the
student/micro level:
 Teach students to self-monitor self-determination skills (e.g.,
accommodations and modifications) and provide opportunities for
students to practice the self-monitoring strategy.

As you work with students, take into consideration the cultural nuances
involved in teaching self-determination skills and providing opportunities to
develop self-determination to students from CLD backgrounds
 Conduct age-appropriate transition assessments in order for students to
learn about themselves, set goals, solve problems, use information make
decisions, and to identify long-range goals.
IEP Team/Student Example
 Predictor area: Self-Determination/Self-Advocacy
 Evidence-Based Practice: Self-Advocacy Strategy
 Post-School Goal: After high school graduation, Jason
will attend GTCC and work towards an Associates degree in
computer programming.
 IEP Goal: To prepare for his postsecondary goal of
succeeding at GTCC, by May 2014, Jason will prepare notes
for and present his goals at his IEP meeting, based on
instruction in the Self Advocacy Strategy.
 Transition Activities:
 Self-Advocacy Training
 Discuss goals & accommodations with gen. ed. teacher
 Meet with Disability Services at GTCC
Resource Connecting Predictors and
Practices
How can you use this?
Why take time to develop a plan?
38

To ensure you do not overlook any details

To understand what is and what is not possible in
your classroom, school, or community

For efficiency, to save time, energy, and resources in
the long run

For accountability – to increase the chances that
people will do what needs to be done to improve the
services for youth with disabilities in your classroom,
school, and community.
How to Write an
Action Plan
1. Determine what key people should be involved in
planning
2. Develop an action plan
• Steps for remedying the problem should have a
direct link to the data analysis.
• Any action listed must be specific, observable,
and measurable.
• Sufficient detail is needed so that it is possible to
determine when the action has been implemented.
3. Review your completed action plan
4. Follow through
5. Evaluate your efforts
Action Plan Template
Next Steps
Area for
Improvement
2 –Next Step
1- Goal
To increase the
number of studentdirected IEPs from
0 to 10 students,
by March 2014,
the school will
teach youth in 2
resource
classrooms (i.e.,
30 youth) how to
lead their own IEP
meetings using the
Self Advocacy
Strategy.
•
Provide professional development to
two resources teachers on how to use
the Self Advocacy Strategy.
•
Allow time for teachers to practice using
the curriculum until teachers implement
with 100% fidelity.
•
Implement Self-Advocacy Strategy
(SAS) in two resource rooms.
•
Assess student knowledge of strategy
using SAS knowledge battery.
•
Allow students to practice directing their
IEP meetings in simulated environment.
•
Have students direct IEP meetings.
3 –Person
Responsible
•
•
•
District
Administrators
SPED teachers
Students
4- Due Date
March 2014
What’s Next?
 Use this tool to:





41
Choose one Predictor (or related “cluster” of predictors) from the
predictor self-assessment.
Rate the implementation status for each of the characteristics
listed.
Identify which characteristics are not currently being
implemented.
Think about if you have the resources to implement the
characteristics and the time it will take to get it up and running.
Of these characteristics, choose one to take action on (as a
school or within individual student’s educational
program)
What Resources Can Help Me?
 Evidence-based Practice Descriptions and Research
to Practice Lesson Plans at www.nsttac.org
42

http://www.nsttac.org/sites/default/files/assets/pdf/pdf/ebp
s/Evidence-Based_Practice_Flyer.May2013.pdf

http://www.nsttac.org/content/lesson-plan-starters
Formula for Successful Goals
Purposeful
planning
Effective
Intervention
Adapted from Fixen & Blasé (2009)
Effective
Implementati
on
Positive
outcomes
for
students
Questions??
Contact
www.nsttac.org
Lauren K. Bethune, M.Ed
Graduate Research Assistant/Doctoral Student
National Secondary Transition Technical Assistance Center
University of North Carolina at Charlotte
lbethune@uncc.edu
David W. Test
Department of Special Education and Child Development
University of North Carolina at Charlotte
Co-Director, National Secondary Transition Technical Assistance Center
dwtest@uncc.edu