The US Economy 2016
Index Charts, Fed Funds Rate, Oil
Real Estate
US Stock Markets
Historic Charts
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Past tech revolutions led to stock market bubbles
To maintain current share values would require 4% growth AND a rising share of
profits contributing to GDP in the future (unlikely)
Shiller, Robert J. (2000) Irrational Exuberance (Hardcover) Princeton University Press (March 15, 2000) ISBN-13: 978-0691050621
Jeffry A. Timmons (1994) New Venture Creation: Entrepreneurship for the 21st Century. Irwin. ISBN 0256115486
S&P 500 September 2008 to July 2009 – the crash!
DJIA 1900 to Current
DJIA Log Chart 1900 to Current. Prophet Charts: Copyright ©2007 Investools Inc. http://online.investools.com/
DJIA 1900 to Current – Not on Log Scale
DJIA Flat Chart 1900 to Current. Prophet Charts: Copyright ©2007 Investools Inc. http://online.investools.com/
DJIA 1906 to 1950
Company
Symbol
Industry
3M
Alcoa
American Express
AT&T
Bank of America
Boeing
Caterpillar
Chevron Corporation
Cisco Systems (formerly GM)
Coca-Cola
DuPont
ExxonMobil
General Electric
Hewlett-Packard
IBM
Intel
Johnson & Johnson
JPMorgan Chase
Kraft Foods
McDonald's
Merck
Microsoft
Pfizer
Procter & Gamble
The Home Depot
Travelers (formerly CitiBank)
United Technologies Corporation
Verizon Communications
Wal-Mart
Walt Disney
MMM
AA
AXP
T
BAC
BA
CAT
CVX
CSCO
KO
DD
XOM
GE
HPQ
IBM
INTC
JNJ
JPM
KFT
MCD
MRK
MSFT
PFE
PG
HD
TRV
UTX
VZ
WMT
DIS
Diversified industrials
Aluminum
Consumer finance
Telecommunication
Institutional and retail banking
Aerospace & defense
Construction and mining equipment
Oil and gas
Computer networking
Beverages
Commodity chemicals
Integrated oil & gas
Conglomerate
Diversified computer systems
Computer services
Semiconductors
Pharmaceuticals
Banking
Food processing
Restaurants & bars
Pharmaceuticals
Software
Pharmaceuticals
Non-durable household products
Home improvement retailers
Insurance
Aerospace, heating/cooling, elevators
Telecommunication
Broadline retailers
Broadcasting & entertainment
S&P 500 – 1986 to today
BigCharts MarketWatch Quickcharts. Copyright © 2007 MarketWatch, Inc Retrieved from
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=SP500&sid=0&o_symb=SP500&freq=2&time=13
NASDAQ 1978 to Present
The Dot Com Bubble
BigCharts MarketWatch Quickcharts. Copyright © 2007 MarketWatch, Inc Retrieved from
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=nasdaq&sid=0&o_symb=nasdaq&freq=2&time=20
FOMC – Fed Funds Rate
0.25% to 0.50% or 50 basis points
http://online.wsj.com/news/interactive/INVESTOR0104?ref=SB10001424052702303640604579296464068676966
Fed funds: Leader of the
interest rate pack
By Bankrate.com
Here's how the Federal
Reserve Board's changes to
the federal funds rate have
been reflected in other key
interest rates over the past
10 years.
Key interest rates
Aug. 28, 1996 through Jan.31,
2007
Bankrate.com ®, Copyright © 2007 Bankrate, Inc.
http://www.bankrate.com/brm/news/fed/fedchart.asp
Federal Funds Rate FOMC
Greenspan Put
The “Greenspan Put”
“Free Money”
0 to .25%
Federal Funds Rate, Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. NBER 2007 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: research.stlouisfed.org.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/FEDFUNDS/118/Custom?cs=Medium&crb=on&cosd=2000&coed=2006-05-01&cg=Go
Greenspan Put
Federal Funds Rate, Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. NBER 2007 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: research.stlouisfed.org.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/FEDFUNDS/chart?cid=118&fgid=&fgcid=&ct=&pt=&cs=Medium&crb=on&cf=lin&range=
Custom&cosd=1995-01-01&coed=2007-06-13&asids=+%3CEnter+Series+ID%3E&same_scale=1&cg2=Refresh+Graph
WSJ 10/9/2013
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304520704579125341760473438.ht
ml?KEYWORDS=taking+the+hot+seat
WSJ.com July 31, 3012 from
http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444130304577559320750777782.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection
WSJ 8/30/2013 In Turmoil, Emerging Markets Raise Rates Move by Indonesia Follows Brazil, Turkey; Trend Threatens to Deepen Slowdown.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324324404579043362869382586.html?KEYWORDS=in+turmoil+emerging+markets
Fed Funds Rate 1954 to Present
Federal Funds Rate, Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. NBER 2007 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: research.stlouisfed.org.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/FEDFUNDS/118
Core CPI vs. Fed Easing Cycles: 1960 – 2006. Seeking Alpha. Stock Market Opinion & Analysis. http://seekingalpha.com/wp-content/seekingalpha/images/core_cpi_y_y.jpg
Interesting Tid Bits
4/27/2013
WSJ, July 27, 2012 at
http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390443477104577553431459135876.html
WSJ August 24-25, 2013 http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324619504579031300409638802.html?KEYWORDS=CEO+exit+sets+microsoft+on+new+path
WSJ 9/4/2013
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324886704579052380986072894.html?KEYWORDS=smartphone+sale#project%3DNOKFADE0904%26articleTabs%3Dinteractive
Labor Cost Comparison
Auto Worker
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US autoworker with benefits
South Korean worker
Mexican worker
Some Chinese workers
Source: Washington Post 5/11/09
$54/hr
$22/hr
$10/hr
$3/hr
WSJ, 8/3/2012 at http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444320704577566790169187310.html?mod=
WSJPRO_hpp_LEFTTopStories#project%3DJOBSHISTORY09%26articleTabs%3Dinteractive
iPhone Produces $306 for Apple
Inside Your iPhone. New York Times July 5, 2010
http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2010/07/05/technology
20100706-iphone-graphic.html?ref=technology
http://www.treas.gov/tic/mfh.txt
http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/mfh.txt
World GDP in USD
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)
http://www.occ.treas.gov/ftp/release/2008-115a.pdf
Real Estate
Case Shiller Home Price Index
Various Pictures
The Mess That Greenspan Made. Blogspot. October 30, 2005.http://themessthatgreenspanmade.blogspot.com/2005/10/housing-costs-core-cpi-recap.html
OFHEO = Office of
Federal Housing
Enterprise
Oversight
Case Shiller Home Price Index
US national index levels, not seasonally adjusted. Historic prices are inflation
adjusted May 2012 dollars.
http://www.multpl.com/case-shiller-home-price-index-inflation-adjusted/
http://ycharts.com/indicators/case_shiller_home_price_index_composite_20#series=type:indicator,id:case_shiller_home_price_i
ndex_composite_20,calc:&zoom=10&startDate=&endDate=&format=real&recessions=false
A History of Home Values. New York Times. Available http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2006/08/26/weekinreview/27leon_graph2.large.gif
Professor Piggington’s Econo-Almanac for the Landed Poor. Available http://piggington.com/a_history_of_home_values_graph_by_robert_j_schiller
http://www.housedata.info/rank/yr5/
• “One definition of recession is two consecutive quarters with a
declining gross domestic product.”
MSNBC News: Opinion Slate. Economic blame game. Why does Bush keep lying about when
the recession started? By Daniel Gross
January 1, 2002. http://stacks.msnbc.com/news/853442.asp?cp1=1#BODY
• In economics, a recession is a general slowdown in economic
activity in a country over a sustained period of time, or a business
cycle contraction.[1][2] During recessions, many macroeconomic
indicators vary in a similar way. Production as measured by Gross
Domestic Product (GDP), employment, investment spending,
capacity utilization, household incomes and business profits all
fall during recessions. (Wikipedia)
[1] "Recession". Merriam-Webster Online Dictionary. http://www.merriamwebster.com/dictionary/recession. Retrieved on 19 November 2008.
[2] "Recession definition". Encarta® World English Dictionary [North American Edition]. Microsoft
Corporation. 2007.
http://encarta.msn.com/encnet/features/dictionary/DictionaryResults.aspx?refid=1861699686.
Retrieved on 19 November 2008.
http://www.nber.org/releases/
Petroleum – Various Pictures
WTI “Light Sweet Crude”
Brent North Sea
Light Sweet Crude 83 to present
NYMEX Crude Oil Futures. Front Month. WTRG Economics. Copyright 1999-2006 by James L. Williams. http://www.wtrg.com/daily/crudeoilprice.html
Brent North Sea Oil Price 1987 to 2011
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Brent_Spot_monthly.svg
http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=crude-oil-west-texas-intermediate&months=360
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USCRWTIC:IND/chart
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Oil_Prices_1861_2007.svg
WTI Crude Oil Spot Price Chart
http://ycharts.com/indicators/crude_oil_spot_price/chart#series=type:indicator,id:crude_oil_spot_price,calc:&zoom=10&startDate=&endDate=&format=real&recessions=false
US Dollar vs. Euro
Google Finance: US Dollar vs. Euro http://finance.google.com/finance?q=USDEUR
US Dollar vs. Oil
Crude Oil Prices 2004 Dollars. WTRG Economics. Copyright 1996-2005 James L. Williams. http://www.wtrg.com/prices.htm
http://www.gravmag.com/oil.html
http://www.pbs.org/frontlineworld/stories/colombia/images/map.swf