Water and International Security:
Definitions, History, and Future Risks
Dr. Peter H. Gleick
www.pacinst.org
Pacific Institute, Oakland, California
Tufts University
February 2005
Water and Conflict: Conclusions
 There is a long history of conflicts over
fresh water.
 Such conflicts have taken many forms.
 The risks of water-related disputes are
growing.
 But: water can also be a cause for
cooperation, negotiation, and agreement.
Key Concepts and Issues
 “Environmental Security”
 Water and conflict
 “Water Wars”
 International Rivers
 Shared watersheds/watercourses
 Environmental agreements and treaties
Environment and Security
 Outgrowth of the ending of the Cold War
(mid-1980s);
 Outgrowth of the improved understanding
of environmental issues;
 Marked by a rich, albeit cantankerous
political science debate;
 Water piece enriched by diverse case
studies.
Water and Conflict:
Critical Issues
 Fresh water is widely shared internationally.
– Half of all land area on Earth
– Over 260 “international river basins”
 There is growing competition for water.
– Rising populations
– Rising demand from all sectors
 International efforts to resolve water-related
disputes are often inadequate.
“Water Wars?” Or More Complex?
 Water as a goal
– Middle East (2700 BPE to present)
 Water as a weapon
– Han River, Korea; Ataturk Dam
 Water systems as targets
– WWII, Vietnam, Persian Gulf, Iraq
 Water in development disputes
– Apartheid SA, Cauvery River, Gabcikovo
Chronology of water conflicts:
www.worldwater.org
Number of International River Basins,
by Continent
Continent
Africa
North/Central America
South America
Asia
Europe
Totals
Source: Wolf et al. 1999
International
Basins
60
39
39
51
72
261
Transboundary Rivers Shared by
Five or More States
Danube
Congo
Niger
Nile
Zambezi
Lake Chad
Aral Sea
Rhine
Amazon
18
13
11
10
9
8
8
8
8
Volta
Jordan
Mekong
Tigris/Euphrates
Kura-Araks
Ganges/Brahmaputra
Neman
Vistula/Wista
La Plata
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
New Concerns/New Challenges?
 Water and economic development: poverty,
allocation.
 Subnational, state-to-state, ethnic, local
disputes are all increasingly common.
 Water-related acts of terrorism.
Subnational Water Conflicts; Terrorism
Vaal Dam, South Africa, DWAF
Los Angeles Aqueduct, Alabama Gates
Credit: G.D.Bain 1991
Meuse River
Reducing the Risks of Water Conflicts
 Technical (scarcity) *
– Improve efficiency of water use in all sectors
– Explore new supply options
 Economic (allocation)
– Reduce water subsidies; re-evaluate rates
– Re-evaluate agricultural policies
 Institutional (management)
– Joint basin management
– Dispute resolution mechanisms
 Political *
– Effective and comprehensive joint agreements
– Equitable water rights allocations and control
8000
1000
900
800
$1996 U.S. GNP
7000
6000
700
600
500
400
300
5000
4000
3000
2000
200
100
0
1000
0
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Water Withdrawals (km3/yr)
The “productivity” of water use can be
greatly increased
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
1925
1920
1915
1910
1905
1900
1996$ per Cubic Meter
Economic Productivity of Water: U.S.
16.00
14.00
12.00
10.00
8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
0.00
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
1983
1981
1979
1977
1975
1973
1971
1969
1967
1965
1963
1961
HK$ per cubic meter
Economic Productivity of Water:
Hong Kong
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Political Approaches: Treaties
 Many specific international river basin
treaties, e.g.,
–
–
–
–
The Nile (the Sudan and Egypt)
The Colorado (the U.S. and Mexico)
The Jordan (Israel and Jordan)
The Ganges/Brahmaputra (India and
Bangladesh)
• Mixed success; continued challenges
Political Approaches: General Principles
of International Water Law






Obligation to Share Data
Obligation to Resolve Disputes Peacefully
Equitable Utilization of Water
Prevention of Significant Harm
Obligation to Notify and Inform
Cooperative Management
UN Convention on the Law of the Non-Navigational
Uses of International Watercourses (1997)
Conclusions: Water, Conflict, and
Cooperation
 There is a long history of both conflict and
cooperation over fresh water resources.
 New challenges are developing.
 Will our abilities to reach agreement and
cooperation keep pace with the developing
challenges?
Dr. Peter H. Gleick
www.pacinst.org
Pacific Institute, Oakland, California
See also: www.worldwater.org