Water and International Security: Definitions, History, and Future Risks Dr. Peter H. Gleick www.pacinst.org Pacific Institute, Oakland, California Tufts University February 2005 Water and Conflict: Conclusions There is a long history of conflicts over fresh water. Such conflicts have taken many forms. The risks of water-related disputes are growing. But: water can also be a cause for cooperation, negotiation, and agreement. Key Concepts and Issues “Environmental Security” Water and conflict “Water Wars” International Rivers Shared watersheds/watercourses Environmental agreements and treaties Environment and Security Outgrowth of the ending of the Cold War (mid-1980s); Outgrowth of the improved understanding of environmental issues; Marked by a rich, albeit cantankerous political science debate; Water piece enriched by diverse case studies. Water and Conflict: Critical Issues Fresh water is widely shared internationally. – Half of all land area on Earth – Over 260 “international river basins” There is growing competition for water. – Rising populations – Rising demand from all sectors International efforts to resolve water-related disputes are often inadequate. “Water Wars?” Or More Complex? Water as a goal – Middle East (2700 BPE to present) Water as a weapon – Han River, Korea; Ataturk Dam Water systems as targets – WWII, Vietnam, Persian Gulf, Iraq Water in development disputes – Apartheid SA, Cauvery River, Gabcikovo Chronology of water conflicts: www.worldwater.org Number of International River Basins, by Continent Continent Africa North/Central America South America Asia Europe Totals Source: Wolf et al. 1999 International Basins 60 39 39 51 72 261 Transboundary Rivers Shared by Five or More States Danube Congo Niger Nile Zambezi Lake Chad Aral Sea Rhine Amazon 18 13 11 10 9 8 8 8 8 Volta Jordan Mekong Tigris/Euphrates Kura-Araks Ganges/Brahmaputra Neman Vistula/Wista La Plata 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 New Concerns/New Challenges? Water and economic development: poverty, allocation. Subnational, state-to-state, ethnic, local disputes are all increasingly common. Water-related acts of terrorism. Subnational Water Conflicts; Terrorism Vaal Dam, South Africa, DWAF Los Angeles Aqueduct, Alabama Gates Credit: G.D.Bain 1991 Meuse River Reducing the Risks of Water Conflicts Technical (scarcity) * – Improve efficiency of water use in all sectors – Explore new supply options Economic (allocation) – Reduce water subsidies; re-evaluate rates – Re-evaluate agricultural policies Institutional (management) – Joint basin management – Dispute resolution mechanisms Political * – Effective and comprehensive joint agreements – Equitable water rights allocations and control 8000 1000 900 800 $1996 U.S. GNP 7000 6000 700 600 500 400 300 5000 4000 3000 2000 200 100 0 1000 0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Water Withdrawals (km3/yr) The “productivity” of water use can be greatly increased 1995 1990 1985 1980 1975 1970 1965 1960 1955 1950 1945 1940 1935 1930 1925 1920 1915 1910 1905 1900 1996$ per Cubic Meter Economic Productivity of Water: U.S. 16.00 14.00 12.00 10.00 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 0.00 1999 1997 1995 1993 1991 1989 1987 1985 1983 1981 1979 1977 1975 1973 1971 1969 1967 1965 1963 1961 HK$ per cubic meter Economic Productivity of Water: Hong Kong 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Political Approaches: Treaties Many specific international river basin treaties, e.g., – – – – The Nile (the Sudan and Egypt) The Colorado (the U.S. and Mexico) The Jordan (Israel and Jordan) The Ganges/Brahmaputra (India and Bangladesh) • Mixed success; continued challenges Political Approaches: General Principles of International Water Law Obligation to Share Data Obligation to Resolve Disputes Peacefully Equitable Utilization of Water Prevention of Significant Harm Obligation to Notify and Inform Cooperative Management UN Convention on the Law of the Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses (1997) Conclusions: Water, Conflict, and Cooperation There is a long history of both conflict and cooperation over fresh water resources. New challenges are developing. Will our abilities to reach agreement and cooperation keep pace with the developing challenges? Dr. Peter H. Gleick www.pacinst.org Pacific Institute, Oakland, California See also: www.worldwater.org