Transitioning from
the Age of Fossil
Fuels
Feb 27, 2007
Bill Blackwell
Harvard (MA) Local: Solutions for a Sustainable Community
www.harvardlocal.org
Acknowledgment
of ideas, data and slides:
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Richard Heinberg, New College, respected
author on Peak Oil
Cutler Cleveland, BU Professor of
Geography and Environment
Charlie Hall, SUNY-ESF
Arthur Smith, CEO John S. Herold, Inc.
Matthew Simmons, Chairman Simmons &
Company International
Lawrence Livermore Natl Labs
Rob Hopkins, Transition Culture
Amory Lovins, Rocky Mountain Institute
Robert L. Hirsch, SAIC; Roger Bezdek &
Robert Wendling, MISI
Kelly Sims Gallagher, JFK School of
Government
M. King Hubbert, USGS Geophysicist
Kenneth Deffeyes, Geologist
Chris Skrebowski, Editor Petroleum Review
Khebab, The Oil Drum
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Stuart Staniford, Editor The Oil Drum
BP Statistical Review of World Energy
US-DOE Energy Information Agency (EIA)
ISO-NE
The New York Times
Colin Campbell, Geologist
Cameron Wake, UNH Paleoclimatologist
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC)
Union of Concerned Scientists
J. David Hughes, Geological Survey of Canada
Mark Archambault, Nashua River Watershed
Assn.
US Census Bureau
Widmeyer Research & Polling
Richard Lawrence, ASPO-USA, Intel
The 100 Year Energy Transition
Composition of U.S. Energy Use
From
renewable
fuels to
nonrenewable
fuels in
200 years
Cutler J. Cleveland, Prof. Geography and Environment, Boston University ASPO-USA
Boston, MA October 27, 2006
Arthur L. Smith, CEO John S. Herold, Inc., ASPO Boston 2006
http://transitionculture.org/
Amory Lovins, Rocky Mountain Institute www.rmi.org
What’s so great about oil?
• Incredibly energy dense
• One gallon of oil produces energy
equivalent to 45 people toiling all
day.
• Stable at room temperature
• Easily stored and transported
• Low cost of extraction (initially)
• Versatile
• Abundant
http://transitionculture.org/
How do we use oil?
US Oil Consumption 2003
0%
1%
2%
7%
3%
3%
8%
46%
11%
Motor Gasoline
Distillate Fuel Oil
LPG
Kerosene/Jet Fuel
Residual
Asphalt & Road Oil
Petroleum Coke
Lubricants
Aviation Gas
Other Petroleum
19%
• World uses 84 million barrels/day
• U.S. uses 21 million barrels/day (25%)
Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, & Risk Management
Robert L. Hirsch, SAIC; Roger Bezdek, MISI; Robert Wendling, MISI February 2005
Mainly in
transportation
and space
heating (65%)
Kelly Sims Gallagher, JFK School of Government, ASPO-USA 2006 Boston
Dr. M. King Hubbert
USGS Research Geophysicist
Shell Oil Geologist
• In 1956, Hubbert
predicted that US-48 oil
production would peak in
1970.
• Hubbert further
predicted a worldwide
peak at "about half a
century" from 1956.
Hubbert’s Production Curve
Production curve
for a region = sum
of the production
of individual wells
in the region.
In most oil regions, production lags discovery
by about 40 years
Worldwide discovery peaked
in 1964
60
60
Past
50
Future
Production
Gb
40
Past discovery
by ExxonMobil Past after
30
Exxon-Mobil
3yr moving
average
20
10
0
1930
1950
1970
1990
2010
2030
50
40
30
20
10
0
2050
Worldwide production and demand
Another way to look at
global peak oil
The linearization
of Hubbert’s
curve.
P/Q vs. Q
P=Annual
production
Q=Cumulative
production
World reserves are
predicted to be 2.1
trillion bbl, by
following the line to
P=0.
We have used half.
Kenneth Deffeyes, Beyond Oil (2005) p 43, world oil production
US oil production
Hubbert linearization
Kenneth Deffeyes, Beyond Oil (2005) p 38, US oil production
What does Hubbert’s
theory mean?
• The oil production rate depends linearly on the
fraction of the total oil that remains to be
produced.
• The same is true for any other finite resource.
The ease of catching fish depends mostly on
how many fish remain in the pond.
Kenneth Deffeyes
So what is ‘Peak Oil’?
• It is the point when further expansion of oil production becomes
impossible because:
• New production flows are fully offset by production declines
(depletion)
• You never run out of oil
• You do run out of incremental flows
• The world depends on oil products to support growth
Chris Skrebowski, Editor Petroleum Review, ASPO 2005 Conference Denver
There is
much
uncertainty
about the size
of global oil
reserves and
depletion
rates.
Roger H. Bezdek, ASPO-USA Boston 2006
World production forecasts
Graph made by Khebab of The Oil Drum,
http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/11/13/225447/79
World Production Stopped Increasing in late
2004
Stuart Staniford, ASPOUSA Boston 2006
Source - IEA.
World production
as of February 2007
Peak Oil Update - February 2007: Production Forecasts and EIA Oil Production Numbers
Khebab, http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2300
Roger H. Bezdek, ASPO-USA Boston 2006
Where is it?
http://transitionculture.org/
Regular Oil
Is it really there?
Middle East
reserves “jumped”
in the 1980’s, after
OPEC established
production quotas
based on reserves.
• Middle East reserves may be overstated by 300 billion barrels (Salameh 2004)
• Only 20% of increased reserves are genuine (Deffeyes 2005)
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy
We import 66% of our oil
What are the top 4 countries from which
the US imports oil?
US Crude Oil Imports 2004 (EIA)
Ecuador
2%
United Kingdom
2%
Rest
13%
Canada
17%
Kuwait
2%
Angola
3%
Mexico
16%
Iraq
6%
Nigeria
11%
Venezuela
13%
http://www.eia.doe.gov/neic/rankings/crudebycountry.htm
Saudi Arabia
15%
Canada
Mexico
Saudi Arabia
Venezuela
Nigeria
Iraq
Angola
Kuwait
United Kingdom
Ecuador
Rest
US Four Main Suppliers
61% of imports, 40% of total
• Canada peaked in 1973
– Will rely increasingly on Alberta oil sands, which require natural
gas to produce (natural gas peaked in 2001).
• Mexico peaked in 2004
– Cantarell, its largest oilfield, went into irreversible decline in 2006.
Mexican imported oil to US dropped 16% in 2006.
• Saudi Arabia may be at peak now
– When its largest field (Ghawar) peaks, KSA will peak (Matt
Simmons, Simmons International, oil investment banker)
• Venezuela
– Producing more heavy crude each year (expensive to refine)
– Nationalizing its energy industries
Living the Oil Age in an Irish pub
1900
http://transitionculture.org/
2000
2100
New York Times editorial
March 1, 2006
“The concept of peak oil has not been
widely written about. But people are
talking about it now. It deserves a careful
look—largely because it is almost
certainly correct.”
Why does Peak Oil matter?
• 80-95% of all transport on the planet is fueled by oil products
and transport accounts for 70% of oil use
• All petrochemicals are produced from oil
• 99% of all lubrication is done with oil products
• 95% of all goods in our stores get there using oil
• 99% of our food involves oil or gas for fertilizers,
agrochemicals, tilling, cultivation and transport.
Chris Skrebowski, Editor Petroleum Review, ASPO 2005 Conference Denver
Challenges to the food system
• Declining supply of fossil fuels
• Fewer farmers
– Only 1/7 of the human labor is required today as compared to 1900 (because of
fossil fuels), therefore fewer people know how to farm.
• Water
– Snowpack in the Sierras is declining, reducing CA irrigation water.
– Non-renewable aquifers are being depleted.
– Will bring pressure on other regions to compensate.
• Climate instability
– Droughts, floods and stronger storms due to climate change
• Land and topsoil availability
– Soil depletion and development pressures
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Decreasing genetic diversity of crops
– Limits natural adaptability to the above stresses
• These problems are all related to one another. The common
factor is availability of cheap energy.
Substitutes for conventional oil?
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Oil sands
Oil shale
Coal & CTL
Natural gas
Wind
Solar PV & thermal
Nuclear
Hydro
Biomass
Landfills
All are important.
Together they will not
deliver the flows
required by current &
future demand at
reasonable price.
We must reduce
demand through
efficiency and using
less.
How serious a problem is
this?
Peaking of World Oil Production:
Impacts, Mitigation, & Risk Management
Robert L. Hirsch, SAIC, Project Leader
(commissioned by US Department of Energy, February 2005)
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with
an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached,
liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and,
without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be
unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and
demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more
than a decade in advance of peaking.
http://www.netl.doe.gov/publications/others/pdf/Oil_Peaking_NETL.pdf
No single fuel can replace oil
“Oil has the greatest energy density of any fuel known
to man, apart from nuclear. This means all alternatives
are inferior.”
Chris Skrebowski, Editor Petroleum Review
“Peak oil is a turning point in history of unparalleled
magnitude, for never before has a resource as critical as
oil become headed into decline from natural depletion
without sight of a better substitute.”
Dr. Colin Campbell, renowned oil geologist
How should we face this?
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Collectively, Humanity is:
Very clever, very ingenious, very adaptable
So it is reasonable to be optimistic.
It is reasonable to anticipate technical solutions we
cannot currently envisage.
• But humanity is also greedy, competitive, short-sighted
and tribal.
• Concern & apprehension are appropriate.
Chris Skrebowski, Editor Petroleum Review, ASPO 2005 Conference Denver
A Look at Climate
Change
Why reducing fossil fuel use is
essential now
Dr. Cameron Wake, University of NH, ASPO-USA Boston 2006
Dr. Cameron Wake, University of NH, ASPO-USA Boston 2006
Dr. Cameron Wake, University of NH, ASPO-USA Boston 2006
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Average temperatures from a range of
IPCC energy scenarios short of deep
cuts in fossil fuel use
Threshold of severe danger: 2oC above
pre-industrial average temperature
(EU target not to exceed)
Dr. Cameron Wake, University of NH, ASPO-USA Boston 2006
Moving south
Dr. Cameron Wake, University of NH, ASPO-USA Boston 2006
Union of Concerned Scientists, Climate Change in the U.S. Northeast
Natural Gas Resources
• U.S natural
gas peaked in
2001.
• Drilling has
doubled in 5
years.
• Production is
declining.
J. David Hughes, Geological Survey of Canada, ASPO-USA Boston 2006
Falling behind on the treadmill
If we stopped
drilling gas
wells,
production
would drop at
25% per year.
J. David Hughes, Geological Survey of Canada, ASPO-USA Boston 2006
The gas we use is primarily
from U.S. and Canada
J. David Hughes, Geological Survey of Canada, ASPO-USA Boston 2006
New England generates 29% of its
electricity from natural gas
2003 New England Total Electric Generation by Energy Source, Percentage (%): ISO-NE
Pumping
Misc. load
InterchangeCoal/oil 1%
1% 1%
4%
Wood/refuse
5%
Natural gas
Oil
5%
Natural gas
29%
Nuclear
Coal
Oil/gas
Hydro
Hydro
6%
Oil
Wood/refuse
Interchange
Coal/oil
Misc.
Oil/gas
10%
Pumping load
Coal
12%
Source: ISO-NE
Nuclear
26%
Natural gas and fertilizer
• Natural gas is the feedstock for chemical
fertilizers
• Haber-Bosch process produces ammonium nitrate
(fertilizer) from atmospheric nitrogen and the
hydrogen in methane (natural gas)
• As natural gas supply declines, the price of
chemical fertilizers will increase
• Organic fertilizers and farming methods must fill
the growing deficiency.
Implications of peak oil and natural gas
• Agriculture:
• 10 “petro calories” for each 1 food calorie on average
• Average food item travels about 1,400 miles from origin to consumers.
• Transcontinental shipment of food may become cost prohibitive.
• Preserving quality agricultural land close to towns is vital
• Transportation:
• All municipal functions dependent on fuel and transportation (fire,
police, schools, etc.) will become more expensive.
• Trains may replace trucks as preferred for transporting goods
• Plan for walkable and bikeable communities.
• Goods and Services:
• More will need to be produced locally and regionally.
• Small-scale manufacturing, local craftsmen and small businesses will
be the economic engine of the future.
Mark Archambault, Nashua River Watershed Assn.
Initial Symptoms of Peak Oil Awareness
(“Post Petroleum Stress Disorder”)
Common symptoms include:
Clammy palms / nausea
A sense of bewilderment and unreality
An irrational grasping at unfeasible
solutions
Fear
Outbreaks of nihilism / survivalism
Exuberant optimism
“I always told you so” syndrome
Rob Hopkins, TransitionCulture.org
Four Scenarios
Rob Hopkins, TransitionCulture.org
Climax
(post-modern
cultural chaos)
Techno-Fantasy
Green-Tech Stability
Energy & Resource Use
Population
Pollution
Earth
stewardship
Pre-industrial
sustainable culture
Historical Time
Agriculture
10.000yrs BP
Industrial
Revolution
Atlantis
Future Time
Baby Boom
Great Grand
Children
Old Growth
Forest
Creative Descent Option
Transition plan for towns
• Energy Descent Action Plan
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(Rob Hopkins, www.TransitionCulture.org )
Develop a vision in 20 years time for what the town could be
Back-cast from that vision to see practical steps
Design a road map to incorporate those steps
• Areas to consider
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Food and water security
Health care system; physical and psychological health
Home heating
Employment – a more local ecomomy
Schools – what skills will our children need?
Community – we’re in this together
Food Security
De-industrialization of agriculture is required
• Every calorie of industrially produced food requires on average 10
calories of fossil fuel inputs.
– Agriculture accounts for about 17 percent of the U.S. annual energy budget.
– Agriculture is the single largest consumer of petroleum products as compared to
other industries.
– The U.S. military uses only about half that amount.
• A radical reduction of fossil fuel inputs to agriculture is needed.
• An increase in labor inputs
– Change thinking about physical work as degrading
– Health clubs? Your workout is going to be on a farm (Dr. Vandana Shiva)
• A reduction of transport, with production being devoted primarily to
local consumption.
Richard Heinberg presentation to the E. F. Schumacher Society in Stockbridge, MA. 10/28/2006
Implications for
Dick Lawrence, ASPO Boston 2006
History and Future of Farms
Jefferson’s
ideal
agrarian
democracy
Tractors replace
horses
Pesticides &
fertilizers
Massive farm Peak Community
bankruptcies Oil farms
Toward a Local Food System
• Community Supported Agriculture (CSA) – direct
grower to buyer
– Buyer pays same price for better food
– Grower sells at retail instead of wholesale
• Farmers’ Markets
– Ready outlet for farmers
– Reduce trips to supermarket & fuel costs
– Builds community
• Create a Mass Food Co-op
– Statewide organic food buying cooperative
– Could be patterned after the Oklahoma Food Coop
(Bob Waldrop, www.OklahomaFood.coop)
Victory
Gardens
• During WW II, people in the US, Canada and
the UK planted Victory Gardens in back
yards, empty lots and apartment rooftops, to
ease pressure on food sources for the war
effort.
• Nearly 20 million Americans planted victory
gardens.
• Government encouraged home canning so that
commercially canned products could be sent
to the troops.
• The harvest provided about 40% of all
vegetable produce consumed by the nation.
Energy efficiency at home
KWHr/Day
We reduced
electricity usage in
our home 42% by:
50.00
45.00
40.00
35.00
30.00
25.00
KWHr/Day
20.00
15.00
10.00
• 18 CFL bulbs,
cost: $0 with free
home energy audit
5/9/2006
4/9/2006
3/9/2006
2/9/2006
1/9/2006
12/9/2005
11/9/2005
10/9/2005
9/9/2005
8/9/2005
7/9/2005
0.00
6/9/2005
5.00
• Clothes drying
rack, cost: $20
• Turning off
electronics, cost: $0
Are people ready for
change?
Are people ready for change?
New American Drean - a Public Opinion Poll conducted in July 2004
by Widmeyer Research & Polling, Takoma Park, MD
1,092 Americans 18 years of age and older
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87% think our current consumer culture makes it harder to instill positive
values in our children.
81% think American society is too focused on shopping and spending.
91% believe that preserving and protecting the environment for future
generations should be important in defining the American Dream.
74% said Americans cannot continue to use natural resources at current levels
without negative consequences.
81% said that protecting the environment will require most of us to make
major changes in the way we live.
71% said that our dependence on oil leads to conflicts and wars with other
countries.
83% said the most effective way to deal with our dependence on oil was to
conserve energy by using less and developing new energy efficient
technologies.
83% say we need to rebuild our neighborhoods and small communities
(http://www.culturalcreatives.org/Library/docs/NewPoliticalCompassV73.pdf)
• Answer: Yes
http://www.newdream.org/about/PollResults.pdf
What Harvard Local is doing
• The energy transition is a positive opportunity to rebuild vital,
local communities and economies.
• Harvard Local supports and is doing work in the following areas:
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Local foods
Energy efficiency and renewable energy strategies
Climate action
Re-localization of the economy
Youth projects
Working with other towns
Public education
Envisioning a healthier society after fossil fuels
www.harvardlocal.org
What you can do
• Hone your gardening skills
• Reduce your fossil fuel dependency
• Get to know your neighbors
“The significant problems we face cannot
be solved at the same level of thinking we
were at when we created them.”
– Albert Einstein
Some resources
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www.EnergyBulletin.net
www.TheOilDrum.com
Powerdown: Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World; Richard
Heinberg, 2004.
The Party's Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies; Richard
Heinberg, 2003.
Beyond Oil: The View from Hubbert's Peak; Kenneth S. Deffeyes, 2005.
Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World
Economy; Matthew R. Simmons 2005.
Against the Grain: How Agriculture Has Hijacked Civilization; Richard
Manning, 2004.
The Omnivore's Dilemma: A Natural History of Four Meals; Michael Pollan,
2006.
The Long Emergency: Surviving the Converging Catastrophes of the
Twenty-First Century; James Howard Kunstler, 2005.
Petrodollar Warfare: Oil, Iraq and the Future of the Dollar; William R. Clark,
2005.
Radical Simplicity: Small Footprints on a Finite Earth; Jim Merkel, 2003.