Slides for Sociology W3480: Revolutions, Social Movements, and Contentious Politics Columbia College Spring 2007 Prepared by Charles Tilly and Ernesto Castañeda send questions to ec2183@columbia.edu Preface • This turned out to be Professor Tilly’s last undergraduate course. Professor Tilly died of lymphoma on April 29, 2008. May he rest in peace. We’ll miss him greatly. • For testimonials on his many human and scholarly contributions visit: http://www.ssrc.org/essays/tilly/ • I hope that these slides are a partial testimony to Tilly’s enduring analytical power. Ernesto Castañeda. New York. October 6, 2008. (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 2 Copyright notes • Instructors and students can use this material for educational purposes as long as they cite the source as: “Contentious Politics Class Slides and Notes. 2007. Prepared by Charles Tilly and Ernesto Castañeda. Columbia University.” If you are seeing a .pdf version and want the power point version to see the animations or make edits for a new course e-mail: ec2183@columbia.edu • Copyright note: the diagrams, texts, and pictures are reproduced here under fair use terms for educational not-for-profit purposes. Many of them come directly from Tilly’s computer files often from manuscripts of books and articles prior to publication. If you feel you are the owner of copyrighted material used here and want it removed from these slides please e-mail: ec2183@columbia.edu (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 3 From Tilly’s Syllabus • • • This course should help undergraduates who already have a background in social science and/or modern history to think systematically about contentious politics – processes in which people make conflicting collective claims on each other or on third parties – as they participate in them, observe them, and/or learn about how they are happening elsewhere. We will spend little time reviewing theories of political contention or methods for gathering and analyzing evidence. We will spend most of our time examining how such forms of contention as social movements, revolutions, nationalist mobilization, and ethnic conflict have worked in different times and places, as well as thinking through parallels and differences among them. Most sessions will operate as lecture-discussions. For their own inquiries, students will choose some current site of contention, use a standard source (for example, a daily newspaper or online reports of human rights agencies) to catalog episodes of contention occurring in that site during the semester, and then write three memoranda as they go: brief summaries and interpretations of the patterns of contention they discover with connections to the required course readings. We will have short-answer midterm and final examinations. Examinations will draw on class sessions, required reading, and memoranda. Ambitious students may propose different inquiries, just so long as they are at least equally valuable and difficult; subject to the instructor’s prior approval, for example, students might a) interview social-movement activists, b) report participant observation in contentious politics, c) compare reporting of some particular stream of contention in two different media, or d) reconstruct the history of a significant contentious episode or a cluster of connected episodes. (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 4 Required readings Beth Roy, Some Trouble with Cows. Berkeley: University of California Press, 1994. Charles Tilly, Social Movements, 1768-2004. Boulder: Paradigm Press, 2004. Charles Tilly and Sidney Tarrow, Contentious Politics. Boulder: Paradigm Press, 2006. (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 5 SPRING 2007: SCHEDULE OF SESSIONS AND ASSIGNMENTS A. Claims, Politics, and Contention Read Charles Tilly & Sidney Tarrow, Contentious Politics, chapters 1-3 (Lectures by Charles Tilly except where noted) 17 January Introduction to contentious politics and this course 22 January forms of government and of politics 24 January how contention works and changes B. Who, How, and What? Read: Beth Roy, Some Trouble with Cows 29 January networks, boundaries, and identities; Ernesto Castañeda lecture 31 January ethnicity, race, religion, and nationality 5 February identity politics; memorandum #1 due: brief report (maximum 1,000 words) on plan for collecting and analyzing contentious episodes; include a paragraph on likely strengths and weaknesses of your sources (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 6 SPRING 2007: SCHEDULE 2 C. Mobilization, Demobilization, and Struggle Read Tilly & Tarrow, Contentious Politics, chapters 4-6, plus Appendices A & B (Charles Tilly lectures) 7 February opportunities, threats, and constraints 12 February mobilization processes 14 February contentious repertoires 19 February how forms of contention vary and change D. Social Movements and Other Forms of Contention Read Tilly, Social Movements, chapters 1-4 21 February social movements in history 26 February how people get involved 28 February social movements across the world 5 March review 7 March midterm examination 12-14 March spring holidays (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 7 SPRING 2007: SCHEDULE 3 E. Contention and Democratization Read Tilly, Social Movements, chapters 5-6 19 March regimes and democracy; (class canceled Professor Tilly in the hospital) 21 March waves of democratization; (Ernesto Castañeda lectures) 26 March struggle and democratization; (class canceled) 28 March democracy today and tomorrow; (class canceled) F. War and Revolution Read Tilly & Tarrow, Contentious Politics, chapters 7 and 8 (All these lectures by Ernesto Castañeda) 2 April Returning midterms and Democratization 4 April Violent specialists, civil wars, and interstate wars (memorandum #2 due: brief report on progress of contentious episodes project) 9 April Violence, Terror, and Politics. Revolutions. 11 April Coda on mercenaries, terror, violent events and organized crime. Information on how to create an event catalogue. (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 8 SPRING 2007: SCHEDULE 4 G. Contention Today and Tomorrow Read Tilly, Social Movements, chapter 7 and Tilly & Tarrow, Contentious Politics, chapter 9 16 April National, transnational, and international (Ernesto Castañeda lectures) 18 April Globalization and contention (Charles Tilly and Ernesto Castañeda lecture) 23 April More on globalization (Charles Tilly and Ernesto Castañeda lecture) 25 April The present and future of contentious politics (Charles Tilly lectures) 30 April Conclusions and challenges (Charles Tilly lectures) memorandum #3 due: report (maximum 3,000 words, not including appendices) on contentious episodes project 7 May FINAL EXAMINATION. (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 9 Components of Contentious Politics CONTENTIOUS POLITICS contention collective politics action (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 10 • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • Contentious Politics on the Reuters and BBC Newswires, New Year’s Day 2007 New Year brings 3,000th US death in Iraq; peace groups rally after 3,000th soldier killed Somali Islamists flee toward Kenya and to the hills Hispanics battle blacks in Major California prison riot Foreigner, Palestinian gunmen abducted in Gaza Gunfire between Palestinian factions Indian mob clashes with police over backyard bones; crowd protests at Delhi murders New Year bombs shake Bangkok Thai PM blames rivals for blasts Two killed in Kashmir gun battle Kashmir protest against killing DR Congo troops clash with rebels Burkina police and army in truce Goodyear deal set to end strike [in US] Fijians wary after military coup Voices from Bishkek [Kyrgyzstan] protest rally Saddam’s supporters vow revenge Palestinian deaths rose in 2006 Top Indian Maoist ‘is shot dead’ Pakistan police break up protest [in Rawalpindi] Police disperse Ershad supporters [in Rangpur, Bangladesh] French marchers say ‘non’ to 2007 Train strike [in UK] runs into second day (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 11 French Protestors Say No to New Year 2007! (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 12 The Simple Regime Model Challenger Regime Member Outside Actor Government Regime Limits of Government’s Jurisdiction Outside of Regime Coalitions (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 13 POSSIBLE STUDENT PROJECTS • Monitor one ongoing civil war (e.g. in Ivory Coast, Sri Lanka, Palestine, or Colombia). Prepare a background sketch of the conflict from a standard source such as the Annual Register, reports of Human Rights Watch, or the US State Department’s regional reports; an online search will identify many possible sources. For at least two months of the conflict, scan a daily source such as a national newspaper or CNN online for reports of actions, declarations, and interventions. Prepare a timeline, analyze it for signs of change, and watch especially for signs that parties, alignments, patterns of conflict, and stakes of the struggle are shifting. (If your evidence is rich enough, you might concentrate on the conflict’s geography.) Write a brief report of your conclusions, linking them to course materials. Make sure to include a summary of the central evidence you’re interpreting such as a table, graph, chronology, map, and/or appendix. • Choose two countries and two years since 1999, when the Battle of Seattle occurred. Adopting plausible definitions of “anti-globalization” and “protest,” prepare catalogs of anti-globalization protests in the two countries over the two years. Examine what changes occur in claims participants make, what means they use to make those claims, how they identify themselves, and how observers identify them. Look for similarities, differences, and connections between the patterns you see in the two countries. Write a brief report of your conclusions, linking them to course materials. Make sure to include a summary of the central evidence you’re interpreting such as a table, graph, chronology, map, and/or appendix. • Identify one major social movement mobilization from the past, for example civil rights activism in Mississippi 19641968, one of the student uprisings of 1968, or anti-abortion activity in one American state during the decade following the Supreme Court’s 1973 Roe vs. Wade decision. Using at least ten sources (scholarly works, newspaper accounts, films, oral histories, and/or interviews with participants), prepare a) a diagram of major groups participating and their relations to each other, b) a chronology of the mobilization. Using course materials as your guide, write an analysis of what effects that mobilization produced, and how it produced them. Make sure to include a summary of the central evidence you’re interpreting such as a table, graph, chronology, map, and/or appendix. • Do the same for a current mobilization: for or against US policy in Iraq or Afghanistan, Brazilian responses to American security policy, responses to sexual abuse by priests, calls for reparations to victims of racial discrimination, South African AIDS policy, Chinese treatment of the Falun Gong, public discussions concerning the reconstruction of Ground Zero, or something else. Make sure to include a summary of the central evidence you’re interpreting such as a table, graph, chronology, map, and/or appendix. (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 14 Political Opportunity, Political Threat, and Their Impacts on Contention Shifts in Opportunity = changes in the environment of political actors (in this case, idealized single challenger) that signal shifts in likely consequences of different interactions with other actors Category Increasing Threat Increasing Opportunity openness of regime regime closing down regime increasingly open coherence of elite increasing solidarity of elite increasing divisions within elite stability of political alignments increasing stability rising instability availability of allies potential allies disappear or lose power new allies in regime available to challengers repression/facilitation decreasing facilitation, rising repression increasing facilitation, declining repression This also applies cross-sectionally: if regime A is more open, its elites more divided, more generally unstable, richer in potential allies, and less repressive than regime B, similar challengers will contend more extensively and effectively in regime A (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 15 Variation in Regimes Zone of Authoritarianism 1 Zone of Citizenship Govern- Mental Capacity 0 0 1 Democracy Zone of Fragmented Tyranny (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 16 Crude Regime Types 1 HIGH CAPACITY UNDEMOCRATIC HIGH CAPACITY DEMOCRATIC LOW CAPACITY UNDEMOCRATIC LOW CAPACITY DEMOCRATIC Govern- Mental Capacity 0 0 1 Democracy (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 17 Rough Placement of Selected Regimes in 2007 1 MOROCCO CANADA INDIA PERU Govern- Mental Capacity UGANDA 0 0 1 Democracy (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 18 Revolutions, Social Movements, and Contentious Politics Spring 2007 Networks, Identities, and Boundaries Lecture January 29th, 2007 Ernesto Castañeda Networks (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 20 Relational Account Georg Simmel’s (1858-1918) Formal Analysis Dyad Triad A A B B Web of Social Affiliations or Social Network C A Some Types of Ties Social Tie Transaction, Conversation, Routine contact, Relationship… B C D Professional Family Romance Business 21 (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) Triad Power Dynamics tertius gaudens A B (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) C 22 Social Networks Florentine alliances (Padgett 1993). (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 23 High school friendship: James Moody, Race, school integration, and friendship segregation in America, American Journal of Sociology 107, 679-716 (2001). (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 24 Identities (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 25 Medieval Model Independent corporations with specific attributes, obligations, and rights (Simmel). Nobility Army Church Franciscans Guild Burgers and Bourgeoisie Peasantry 26 (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) Identity is Relational In modern times, and especially in cities, identity depends on the context and the public: (home/work/leisure…). k j a i b u h c g d f e 27 (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) Embedded and Detached Identities (Tilly) DETACHED Many Democrat/ Republican Social settings ACLU member AA Grassroots organizations Friends Roommate Family EMBEDDED One Little All Social life (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 28 Networks, Identities, and Boundaries (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 29 Some Trouble with Cows Beth Roy (1994) • • • • • • • • This trouble occurs in 1954 in Panipur which, after successive partitions belonged to India, then to Pakistan, and then to Bangladesh. At that time, Panipur belonged to Pakistan, a predominantly Muslim state with a substantial Hindu minority; only later would its region, East Pakistan, acquire independence as overwhelmingly Muslim Bangladesh. The village includes households labeled as Hindu or Muslim, but who live from day to day with a much finer – and often cross-cutting – set of distinctions of: caste, class, property, and gender. What happened in 1954? Golam Fakir’s cow got loose, strayed across the limits of Golam’s property, and ate lentils in Kumar Tarkhania’s field. Instead of settling their differences immediately, however, both farmers called in kinfolk, patrons, and allies. As a result, a minor dispute precipitated broader and broader alignments of bloc against bloc. Escalation continued. Supporters eventually took up available weapons. Police intervened and eventually fired on the crowd. Local and regional authorities sought pacification. With each step outward and upward, redefinition of the conflict proceeded; the farther and higher the incident went, the less it concerned complex, caste-and-class-mediated local relations among farmers and the more it became part of national level communal struggles between Hindus and Muslims. The collective memories of the event were shaped not by the embedded, complex identities but from the detached identities and larger categories. (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 30 India Pakistan ENGLAND Panipur A BENGALI SOCIETY Bangladeshis State Officials Hindus Police Mussalmans Brahmins Muslim officials Kayasthas Muslim Peasants Namasudras Converted Hindus Kumar Tarkhania Golam Fakir (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 31 Boundaries, Ties, and Identities (Tilly) Shared stories about history, social boundaries, and identity. boundary Ys Xs relations within Xs relations relations across boundary (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) within Ys 32 POWER • Power depends on network location and not on intrinsic characteristics of the actors but on the social structure. • Power is spread through society (see Foucault) since it depends on social relations, tacit consent and implicit and explicit laws. • Power relations depend on embodied social knowledge and norms which allow for social reproduction of durable inequalities and power allocation (ideology, hegemony, habitus, etc.) • Social movements are times where people take action to change relations of power and the existing social arrangements. The results are contingent. (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 33 Political Identities and Social Movements • In social movements, political identities are at stake. Claim-makers are acting out answers to the question, "Who are you?“ • In social movements a common identity is constructed and put forward. Members have to show "WUNC": worthy, united, numerous, and committed. • Social movements link two complementary activities: assertions of identity and statements of demands. • Social movements grew up in the nineteenth century as means by which people currently excluded from political power could band together and claim that power-holders should attend to their interests, or the interests they represented. • Recognition of their claimed identities as wronged workers, dispossessed peasants, or persecuted religious minorities constituted them as political actors, but also drew them into bargaining collectively with existing holders of power. That stress on identity assertion persists in social movements, especially in their earlier stages, to the present day. Social movements continue to assert the right to respect and political voice of indigenous peoples, gays, conservative Christians, unborn children, etc. • Adapted from: Contentious conversation. Charles Tilly. Social Research. New York: Fall 1998.Vol.65, 3; pg. 491, 20 pgs. (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 34 Conclusions • Violent conflict stems from relations that may or may not be primarily violent. • “…humans turn out to be interacting repeatedly with others, renegotiating who they are, adjusting the boundaries they occupy, modifying their actions in rapid response to other people's reactions, selecting among and altering available scripts, improvising new forms of joint action, speaking sentences no one has ever uttered before, yet responding predictably to their locations within webs of social relations they themselves cannot map in detail. They tell stories about themselves and others that facilitate their social interaction rather than laying out verifiable facts about individual lives. They actually live in deeply relational worlds. If social construction occurs, it happens socially, not in isolated recesses of individual minds” (Tilly 1998). (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 35 Bibliography Hanneman, Robert A. and Mark Riddle. Introduction to social network methods http://faculty.ucr.edu/~hanneman/nettext/index.html Hogan, Richard. Charles Tilly Takes Three Giant Steps from Structure toward Process: Mechanisms for Deconstructing Political Process. Contemporary Sociology, Vol. 33, No. 3. (May, 2004), pp. 273-277. Stable URL: http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=00943061%28200405%2933%3A3%3C273%3ACTTTGS%3E2.0.CO%3B2-2 Newman, Mark. Gallery of network images. http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mejn/networks/ Padgett, John F., Christopher K. Ansell. Robust Action and the Rise of the Medici, 1400-1434. American Journal of Sociology, 98: 1259-1319, 1993 Pescosolido, Bernice A.; Beth A. Rubin. 2000. The Web of Group Affiliations Revisited: Social Life, Postmodernism, and Sociology. American Sociological Review, Vol. 65, No. 1 Roy, Beth. 1994. Some Trouble with Cows: Making sense of Social Conflict. University of California Press. Berkeley: CA. Tilly, Charles. 2002. Stories, Identities, and Political Change. Rowman & Littlefield. Tilly, Charles. 1998. Contentious conversation. Social Research. New York: Fall 1998.Vol.65, Iss. 3; pg. 491. Simmel, Georg. 1955. Conflict and the Web of Group Affiliations. Translated by K.H. Wolff and R. Bendix. New York. Free Press. (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 36 Political Identities and the Census (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 37 Definitions from Appendix One of Contentious Politics (2006) • Government: within a given territory, an organization controlling the principal concentrated means of coercion and exercising priority over all other organizations within the same territory in some regards. In England of 1785, the organization included a king, ministers, civil servants, Parliament, and a network of appointed agents throughout the country. • Political actors: recognizable sets of people who carry on collective action in which governments are directly or indirectly involved, making and/or receiving contentious claims. In Ukraine, supporters of outgoing president Kuchma, backers of presidential candidate Yushchenko, Interior Ministry troops, and external sponsors on both sides all figured as weighty political actors. • Political identities: as applied to political actors, organized answers to the questions “Who are you?” “Who are they?” and “Who are we?” In late eighteenth-century England, some of those answers included Abolitionists, slaveholders, and Parliament. (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 38 Definitions 2 • Contentious politics: interactions in which actors make claims that bear on someone else’s interests, leading to coordinating efforts on behalf of shared interests or programs, in which governments are as targets, the objects of claims, or third parties. • Contentious performances: relatively familiar and standardized ways in which one set of political actors makes collective claims on some other set of political actors. Among other performances, participants in Ukraine’s Orange Revolution used mass demonstrations as visible, effective performances. • Contentious repertoires: arrays of contentious performances that are currently known and available within some set of political actors. England’s antislavery activists helped to invent the demonstration as a political performance, but they also drew on petitions, lobbying, press releases, public meetings, and a number of other performances. (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 39 Definitions 3 • Institutions: within any particular regime, established, organized, widely recognized routines, connections, and forms of organization employed repeatedly in producing collective action. Eighteenth-century antislavery activists could work with such available institutions as religious congregations, parliamentary hearings, and the press. • Social movements: sustained campaigns of claim making, using repeated performances that advertise that claim, based on organizations, networks, traditions, and solidarities that sustain these activities. We divide social movements into the following: Social movement campaigns: sustained challenges to power holders in the name of a population living under the jurisdiction of those power holders by means of public displays of that population’s worthiness, unity, numbers, and commitment [WUNC]. Social movement bases: the social background, organizational resources, and cultural framework of contention and collective action. (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 40 Major Explanatory Concepts in Contentious Politics • Sites of contention: human settings that serve as originators, objects, and/or arenas of contentious politics. Example: Armies often play all three parts in contention. • Conditions: characteristics of sites and relations among sites that shape the contention occurring in and across them. Initial conditions are those that prevail in affected sites at the start of some process or episode. Example: In Italy of 1966, an array of political organizations and the existing connections among them provided the background for the cycle of conflict that occurred over the next seven years. • Streams of contention: sequences of collective claim at or across those sites singled out for explanation. Example: a series of strikes by workers in a given industry against their firm(s). • Outcomes: changes in conditions at or across the sites that are plausibly related to the contention under study, including transformations of political actors or relations among them. Example: During or after a series of strikes, management fires workers, changes work rules, and/or raises wages. (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 41 Major Explanatory Concepts 2 • Regimes: regular relations among governments, established political actors, challengers, and outside political actors including other governments; eighteenth-century England and twenty-first-century Ukraine obviously hosted very different regimes. • Political opportunity structure: features of regimes and institutions (e.g., splits in the ruling class) that facilitate or inhibit a political actor’s collective action; in the case of Ukraine 2004–2005, a divided international environment gave dissidents an opportunity to call on foreign backers in the name of democracy. • Mechanisms: events that produce the same immediate effects over a wide range of circumstances. Example: Diffusion of tactics from one site to another often occurs during major mobilizations, thus altering action at origin and destination as well as facilitating coordination among the affected sites. • Processes: combinations and sequences of mechanisms that produce some specified outcome. Example: Major mobilizations usually combine brokerage and diffusion with other mechanisms in sequences and combinations that strongly affect the collective action emerging from the mobilization. (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 42 Major Explanatory Concepts 3 • Episodes: bounded sequences of continuous interaction, usually produced by an investigator’s chopping up longer streams of contention into segments for purposes of systematic observation, comparison, and explanation. Example: We might compare successive petition drives of antislavery activists in Great Britain (each drive counting as a single episode) over the twenty years after 1785, thus not only seeing how participants in one drive learned from the previous drive but also documenting how the movement as a whole evolved. (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 43 Mechanisms used in Contentious Politics Attribution of similarity: identification of another political actor as falling within the same category as your own. Boundary activation/deactivation: increase (decrease) in the salience of the us-them distinction separating two political actors. Boundary formation: creation of an us-them distinction between two political actors. Boundary shift: change in the persons or identities on one side or the other of an existing boundary. Brokerage: production of a new connection between previously unconnected or weakly connected sites. Certification: an external authority’s signal of its readiness to recognize and support the existence and claims of a political actor. (Decertification: an external authority’s signal that it is withdrawing recognition and support from a political actor.) (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 44 Mechanisms 2 Co-optation: incorporation of a previously excluded political actor into some center of power. Defection: exit of a political actor from a previously effective coalition and/or coordinated action. Diffusion: spread of a contentious performance, issue, or interpretive frame from one site to another. Emulation: deliberate repetition within a given setting of a performance observed in another setting. Repression: action by authorities that increases the cost—actual or potential— of an actor’s claim making. For more explanations, examples, and processes see source: Tilly and Tarrow. 2006. “Contentious Politics.” Appendix A and B. Paradigm Publishers. (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 45 Political Opportunity, Political Threat, and Their Impacts on Contention Shifts in Opportunity = changes in the environment of political actors (in this case, idealized single challenger) that signal shifts in likely consequences of different interactions with other actors Category Increasing Threat Increasing Opportunity openness of regime regime closing down regime increasingly open coherence of elite increasing solidarity of elite increasing divisions within elite stability of political alignments increasing stability rising instability availability of allies potential allies disappear or lose power new allies in regime available to challengers repression/facilitation decreasing facilitation, rising repression increasing facilitation, declining repression This also applies cross-sectionally: if regime A is more open, its elites more divided, more generally unstable, richer in potential allies, and less repressive than regime B, similar challengers will contend more extensively and effectively in regime A (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 46 Aerial Graph of Contention in Russia (based on Bessinger 2001). Figure 5.4: Demonstrations and Violent Events in the Soviet Union and Successor States, 1987-1992 300 250 Violent Events Cumulative Number of Events Demonstrations 200 150 100 50 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 0 Year Source: Data Supplied by Mark Beissinger (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 47 Chronology of the Beijing Student Movement, 1989 4/16 At death of Hu Yaobang, former secretary general of Chinese Communist Party, students post wreaths and elegiac couplets in Tiananmen Square and many Beijing colleges. 4/17 Students march to Tiananmen to memorialize Hu Yaobang. 4/20 Skirmishes between police and students at Xinhua Gate; some students begin class boycott. 4/22 Hu’s funeral in Great Hall of the People; about 50 thousand students march to Tiananmen to participate; numerous student actions include kneeling on the Great Hall’s steps to deliver a petition and request a meeting with premier Li Peng. 4/23 Students form Beijing Student Autonomous Union Provisional Committee. 4/26 People’s Daily editorial calls student mobilization “planned conspiracy” and “turmoil”. 4/27 About 100 thousand students march to Tiananmen and protest the editorial. State Council announces willingness to meet with students. 4/29 Senior government officials meet with 45 selected students from 16 Beijing universities, but other students challenge both the dialogue and the student representatives. 5/4 Students march in commemoration of the May 4th Movement (of 1919). 5/5 Students form Beijing Student Dialogue Delegation. Most students end class boycott. 5/13 300 students start a hunger strike at Tiananmen, with numbers eventually rising to about 3 thousand, plus thousands more as spectators and supporters. 5/14 High-level state delegation meets student activists, chaotic discussion ensues because of student divisions, students withdraw from the talks. 5/15 Mikhail Gorbachev arrives for a state visit; because of Tiananmen’s occupation, government holds its official reception at the Beijing airport. 5/17 More than a million Beijing residents march in support of students and hunger strikers. 5/19 Government declares martial law, but residents and students block the troops. Students from outside Beijing continue to arrive in the city. 6/3 Military repression begins, with hundreds of people killed by government troops. 6/4 Troops encircle remaining 4 thousand students at Tiananmen; students leave the square. (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) Source: adapted from Zhao 2001: xxv-xxvi 48 Major Chinese Peasant Protests, May-August 1997 May Henan: in Yiyang and Changde prefectures, a total of about 200 thousand peasants assemble in 80 locations, often demonstrating and submitting petitions, and sometimes burning vehicles or attacking county governments, with 3 deaths and 54 reported injuries May Hubei: an estimated 120 thousand peasants staged at least 70 demonstrations opposing peasant exploitation and official expropriation; in Tianmen county, 3 thousand villagers attacked party-government buildings, with 90 injuries May-June Anhui: some 70 thousand peasants in 40 townships engage in 60 separate challenges to authorities, variously attacking official buildings, seizing guns and ammunition, blocking a cargo train, seizing goods, and confronting the railroads’ security officers, with 40 injuries and 11 deaths, including 5 police May-June Jiangxi: peasants in 70 townships, totaling around 100 thousand, mounted a hundred challenges to authorities, occupying party and government buildings, attacking supply and marketing cooperatives, looting fertilizer and cement; in Yifeng County, 800 people attacked the Public Security bureau; elsewhere crowds surrounded important officials, whom the military rescued July-Aug Hubei: across 75 townships, perhaps 200 thousand peasants demonstrated, petitioned, and protested against improper payments for crops, high-priced inputs, and illegal taxes; authorities called 8 of the episodes “riots” or “rebellions”; in one bloody fight, 40 peasants were killed or wounded July-Aug Jiangxi: on the order of 200 thousand peasants in 78 townships protested against payment in IOUs, high-priced inputs, low prices for grain, and increased taxes; participants variously attacked (or even burned) party-government buildings, for a total of 200 peasants and 50 security officers wounded; in Yongfeng, security officers fired on the crowd, causing 70 casualties Source: Bernstein & Lü 2002: Table 5.1 (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 49 Contentious Conversation Subject – Verb – Object (of claims) E.g. Union demands that the government __. (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 50 Contrasting Principles of 18th and 19th Century Repertoires in Western Europe Eighteenth Century Nineteenth Century • Local object • Abstract object • Parochial • Cosmopolitan • Particular • Modular • Bifurcated • Autonomous (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 51 Contrasting Principles of 18th and 19th Century Repertoires in Western Europe Eighteenth Century Nineteenth Century Frequent employment of authorities’ normal means of action, either as caricature or as a deliberate, if temporary, assumption of authorities’ prerogatives in the name of a local community Use of relatively autonomous means of action, of kinds rarely or never employed by authorities Convergence on residences of wrongdoers and sites of wrongdoing, as opposed to seats and symbols of public power Preference for previously planned action in visible public places Extensive use of authorized public celebrations and assemblies for presentation of grievances and demands Deliberate organization of assemblies for the articulation of claims Common appearance of participants as members or representatives of constituted corporate groups and communities rather than of special interests Participation as members or representatives of special interests, constituted public bodies, and named associations Tendency to act directly against local enemies but to appeal to powerful patrons for redress of wrongs beyond the reach of the local community and, especially, for representation vis à vis outside authorities Direct challenges to rivals or authorities, especially national authorities and their representatives Repeated adoption of rich, irreverent symbolism in the form of effigies, dumb show, and ritual objects to state grievances and demands Display of programs, slogans, and symbols of common membership such as flags, colors, and lettered banners Shaping of action to particular circumstances and localities Preference for forms of action easily transferred from one circumstance or locality to another Summary: parochial, particular, and bifurcated Summary: cosmopolitan, modular, and autonomous (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 52 Building a Social Movement Campaigns Campaign Repertoires Repertoire WUNC Displays WUNC Display (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 53 (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 54 Sample Exam Questions: 1. We have looked at “old” and “new” repertoires of contention in Western Europe. Name three characteristics of claim-making performances in each repertoire and give two examples of performances that fit the descriptions. CHARACTERISTICS OLD NEW 1) 2) 3) EXAMPLES 1) 2) (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 55 Sample Exam Questions • Circle one of these episodes: nationalist mobilization in the USSR 1987-1992, student claim making in Beijing 1989, antislavery activism in 19th century US and Britain, American resistance to British rule during the 1760s. In a sentence, describe one performance that participants employed in that episode. • In a sentence, say whether that performance comes closer to the “old” or “new” repertoire, and give one reason for your answer. (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 56 Waves of Democratization Wednesday March 21st, 2007 Ernesto Castaneda • • • • • Waves of Democracy (Tilly vs. Huntington) Democracy and Contention Democracy and Social Movements Switzerland Mexico (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 57 Waves of Democracy (Huntington) • First wave, long 1828-1926 (29) • First reverse wave 1922-1942 (12) • Second, short 1943-1962 (32) • Second reverse wave 1958-1975 (30) • Third wave 1974-1991 (60) Huntington writes. "Economic development makes democracy possible; political leadership makes it real." [Top down perspective] Samuel P. Huntington. 1991. The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century. Norman: University of Oklahoma Press. (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 58 Waves of Democracy (Tilly) • • • • • 1789-1800 1830-1848 After WWI After WWII 1989- (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 59 What is the relationship between democracy and social movements? ? Democracy Social mobilization (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 60 Democracy and Social Movements Possible causal pathways Background causes. Historical Context. Social Movements Democratization De-democratization (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 61 A Chronology of Contentious Politics in Switzerland, 1830-1848 A Chronology of Contentious Politics in Switzerland, 1830-1848 1830, 4 July reformist constitution in Ticino 1830, July revolution in France 1830, Fall throughout Switzerland, except Neuchâtel (member of federation, but ruled by King of Prussia) and Basel: clubs, local public meetings, pamphleteering, petitions, press campaigns, and marches to cantonal capitals on behalf of cantonal elections for constituent assemblies by manhood suffrage 1830, Fall elections of constituent assemblies 1831, Jan Basel: armed uprising of country people against urban domination, put down by cantonal troops 1831, JanMarch meetings of assemblies, enactments of new cantonal constitutions, generally asserting popular sovereignty and declaring civil liberties but restricting suffrage significantly by property, education, gender, and age 1831, 13 Sep Neuchâtel: after overlord king of Prussia grants moderate constitution, republicans attempt to seize power by force of arms, but Swiss federal executive (fearing external intervention) sends troops to put them down 1831-1832 bitter political struggles between radicals and conservatives in Basel, ending in split of Basel into two half-cantons, central city vs. rural areas; on 14 May 1832 the rural half-canton adopts a broadly democratic constitution 1832 Schwyz: communes of canton's dependent territories declare themselves an independent half-canton, only to receive military occupation by Innerschwyz; federal authorities broker new constitution enfranchising outer territories 1832, July appointment of commission to revise the federal constitution (strictly speaking, the Pact) 1833, March after liberal cantons attempt to force revision of the federal pact of 1815 through the Diet, cantonal authorities of Schwyz send troops to repress liberals and radicals in the neighborhood of Küssnacht, Outer Schwyz; Diet calls up 16,000 troops to advance on Küssnacht, Schwyz troops withdraw; separation of Schwyz into two half cantons becomes definitive 1833, JulyAugust Basel: rural uprising against city’s dominance; battle (3 August 1833) at Pratteln in which country people suffer five deaths and Basel troops fifty four 1834, Jan armed band including Mazzini raids Carouge (Savoy), sacks customs post, but is overwhelmed by Geneva police 1834 liberals from seven cantons meet to plan anticlerical program, then propose to create cantonal councils; liberal clergy stop movement, but "unrest" in Aargau brings in troops from neighboring cantons (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 62 Switzerland 2 1836 Glarus: after new constitution abolishes separate Protestant and Catholic Landsgemeinden, Catholics try to hold their own separate assembly, but federal occupation of communes Näfels and Oberurnen ends Catholic resistance 1838 half canton of Outer Schwyz: Landsgemeinde of Rothenthurm breaks up in brawl between supporters of Hooves (small peasant liberals) and Horns (large peasant conservatives) 1839, Feb-Sep Zürich: when by a bare majority the cantonal education council appoints to the university a liberal theologian (David Friedrich Strauss of Tübingen), committees of protest form throughout the hinterland, localities send petitions; Zürich authorities pension off Strauss before he begins teaching 1839 Valais: when liberals (mainly from Lower Valais) try to force a new constitution through the Diet of Sion, conservatives (mainly from Upper Valais) withdraw and form their own separate government at Sierre 1839, 6 Sep Zürich: 1,500 armed country people assemble and march to town singing hymns, scuffle with government troops, finally disperse 1840 Valais: troops from Upper and Lower Valais confront each other before settlement backed by federal Diet reunifies cantonal government 1841, January Aargau: cantonal authorities decree suppression of convents, Catholics storm capital under arms and are r epelled by government troops; Swiss Diet brokers compromise reopening nunneries, but not houses of male orders 1841 Lucerne: newly-elected Legislative Assembly asks Jesuits to take over secondary education; widespread demands in Protestant cantons for expulsion of Jesuits, formation of anti-Jesuit societies 1842, fall free corps (Freischaren) of volunteers form, attempt military expeditions against Lucerne 1844, May Valais: after cantonal government asks Lucerne authorities to intervene against adherents of Young Switzerland in Lower Valais, inhabitants of region ambush emissary (Bernhard Meyer) on his way to deliver decree against them 1844 Basel: national shooting festival occasion for manifestations (speeches, cheers, etc.) by Catholics and (esp ecially) radicals 1844, 8 Dec Lucerne: a "few hundred" men in armed bands from Zürich and elsewhere head for city to overthrow government, but give up en route; in the city, radical anti-Jesuit "riot" put down by government forces (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 63 Switzerland 3 1845, spring musters of free corps in a number of rural locations 1845, March skirmishes between free corps and government troops 1845, 31 March canton of Lucerne: 3,600 radical volunteers (Freischärler) enter from Aargau under command of Bernese Ulrich Ochsenbein (former member of Mazzini's Young Europe), march to capital, where government troops repel them, killing 105 (or 115) and jailing 1785; Lucerne celebrates with a religious procession 1845, spring Lucerne: petition campaign to save Jacob Steiger, military leader of March raid, from Lucerne's death penalty; when Steiger escapes from his prison in Savoy, widespread radical celebrations, honorary citizenship for Steiger in Zürich and Bern 1845 Lausanne: mass march of country people to government building, demanding removal of conservative council; radical leader takes over 1845, December Catholic cantons (Lucerne, Uri, Schwyz, Unterwald, Zug, Fribourg, Valais) form mutual defense league (Sonderbund), approach Austrian, Sardinian, and French governments for aid 1846, July Bern adopts a new constitution strengthening state powers and broadening political participation, thus increasing power of radicals 1847 widespread mobilization of Catholics: pilgrimages to Saints' tombs, collective attendance at masses 1847, spring Geneva: popular uprising (radical-led peasants, artisans, and factory workers); after arrest of leaders, street barricades against conservative-liberal militia; radical-dominated provisional government comes to power, enacts more democratic constitution 1847, spring radical coup d'état in Lausanne displaces conservative militia and government 1847, spring elections favorable to radicals elsewhere 1847, spring Fribourg: failed radical coup attempt 1847, July Diet (by twelve votes to ten) demands dissolution of Sonderbund 1847, 10 Oct Valais: voters approve canton’s adhesion to Sonderbund (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 64 Switzerland 4 1847, 4 Nov Diet orders dissolution of Sonderbund by force of arms, mobilizes cantonal troops, begins military operations under General Dufour, relatively moderate veteran of Bavarian and Dutch armies 1847, 14 Nov Fribourg surrenders to Dufour 1847, 22 Nov Zug capitulates without a fight; Dufour proceeds to Lucerne, where general exit of authorities begins 1847, 24 Nov Dufour attacks Lucerne, which surrenders; Sonderbund collapses after minor skirmishes elsewhere (e.g. Schwyz, 26 November) 1847, 29 Nov end of hostilities; within next few days, federal troops occupy all Sonderbund cantons, including Valais 1847, 7 Dec Diet refuses French offer of mediation, rejects all intervention in settlement by external powers 1848 new Swiss constitution approved by referendum establishes federal government (bicameral assembly, Federal Council, Federal Tribunal), divides sovereignty between federal government and cantons, establishes federal citizenship including rights of mobility and settlement throughout the state 1848, Feb on news of February revolution in Paris, democratic force invades Neuchâtel (Neuenburg) from Chaux de Fonds, establishes republican regime on 2 March 1848, April referendum in Neuchâtel endorses republican constitution 5800 to 4400; rejected by Prussian king 1848, April canton of Basel: when Johann Ludwig Becker starts recruiting a German Legion to support revolutionaries in Baden, federal government sends troops to seal borders with Baden and Alsace 1848 as German revolutions begin in March, German workers in Switzerland meet and organize in support, eventually forming military forces to support revolutionary activity in various German territories (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 65 Fluctuations in Swiss National Regimes, 1790-1848 Zone of Authoritarian Citizenship Zone of Authoritarianism 1 GovernMental Capacity Zone of Citizenship 1848 1798 1830 1815 1847 1790 0 0 1 Protected Consultation Zone of Fragmented Tyranny (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 66 Mexican Democratization minimal timeline 1876-1911 Porfirio Diaz’s Dictatorship 1910-1920 Mexican Revolution 1917 Federal Constitution 1929 PNR (PRI) is founded 1934-1940 Lázaro Cardenas (land reform, oil expropriation and party consolidation) 1968 Tlatelolco Massacre / Olympic Games 1982 Peso crash 1983-present Neo-liberal reform 1985 Earthquake, millions die in Mexico City 1988 Competitive but unfair election between Carlos Salinas and Cuauhtémoc Cardenas 1989 PAN wins Baja California’s governorship (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 67 Mexican Democratization 2 January 1st, 1994 NAFTA takes effect. EZLN rebellion in Chiapas begins. 1994 Luis Donaldo Colosio is assassinated as well as Ruiz Massieu. December 1994 Ernesto Zedillo becomes president. Pesos crashes again economic crisis. July 1997 Cuauhtémoc Cardenas is elected the First Mayor of Mexico City. July 2000 Vicente Fox of the PAN is elected 2000-2005 Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) of the PRD becomes mayor of Mexico City Summer 2006 Revolts in Oaxaca. July 2006 Election between AMLO and Felipe Calderon (PAN). Election results are contested but IFE gives victory to Calderon. 2006 AMLO does not recognize the election results and carries out a series of contentious events. 68 Class Goal To correctly match Episodes ↔ Concepts ↔ Analytic Devices (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 69 Concept: Standing Claims • Standing claims, say that the actor or group belongs and represents an established certified category within the regime and therefore deserves the rights and respect that members of that category should receive (see Tilly and Tarrow 2005:82). • E.g. EZLN posing as representatives of Chiapas indigenous people (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 70 Contention Events in Venezuela Monday April 2nd, 2007 Ernesto Castañeda (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 71 1947-48 President Romulo Gallegos, Venezuela's first democratically elected leader, overthrown within 18 months in military coup led by Marcos Perez Jimenez, who forms government with backing from the armed forces and the US. 1958 Admiral Wolfgang Larrazabal ousts Marcos Perez Jimenez; leftist Romulo Betancourt of the Democratic Action Party (AD) wins democratic presidential election (1959-1964). 1964 Venezuela's first presidential handover from one civilian to another. Dr Raul Leoni (AD) is elected president. 1973 Venezuela benefits from global oil boom. Oil and steel industries nationalized. 1982-84 In 1982 On the so-called Black Friday the Venezuelan currency suffers an important devaluation. Fall in world oil prices generates unrest and cuts in welfare spending. Dr Jaime Lusinchi (AD) elected president signs pact involving government, trade unions and business. 1989 Carlos Andrés Pérez (AD) elected president against a background of economic depression. President imposes austerity measures and takes an IMF loan. Social and political upheaval includes riots. Violent riots erupt in the streets of Caracas, "El Caracazo“, at least 300 people die. Martial law and a general strike follow. 1992 Some 120 people are killed in two attempted coups, the first led by junior military officer Colonel Hugo Chavez, and the second carried out by his supporters. Chavez is jailed for two years before being pardoned. 1993-1996 President Carlos Andrés Pérez impeached on corruption charges. Ramon Jose Velasquez becomes interim president. Rafael Caldera elected president. Carlos Andres Perez is later convicted and imprison for corruption. December 1998 A military engineer and the son of schoolteachers, Hugo Chavez Frias is elected the 38th president of Venezuela with 59 percent of the vote. His political party, the & Castañeda 2007) three decades of democratic rule by two 72 Movement of the Fifth(Tilly Republic (MVR), ended parties, Democratic Action (AD) and the Social Christian Party of Venezuela (COPEI). Venezuela 2 August 1999 131 elected officials of the National Constituent Assembly convene to draft a new Constitution. Ratified with 70 percent approval among voters, the 1999 constitution defines Venezuela's current system. Among other things the new Constitution calls for the construction of neighborhood groups to promote the "Bolivarian Revolution" with estimates of more than 70,000. 1999 Chavez prohibits U.S. aircrafts from flying over Venezuela to patrol drug trade in neighboring Colombia. 2000 Foreign Minister Jose Vicente Rangel discloses plot to kill Chavez. Chavez wins another six years in office and a mandate to pursue political reforms. 2001 First head of state to visit Iraq since the 1991 Gulf War. November 2001 President Chavez appears on TV to hail 49 decrees, including land and oil industry reforms. With this Chavez ends many traces of neo-liberal policies. The opposition starts to get radicalized and tries to bring Chavez down by any means. February 2002 Government scraps exchange rate controls. National currency, the Bolivar, plummets 25% against the US dollar. February 25, 2002 Chavez appoints new board of directors to state oil monopoly Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) in move opposed by executives of the state company. April 9, 2002 Trade unions and the Fedecamaras business association declare general strike to support Petroleos de Venezuela dissidents (supported with $US877,000 by US (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) government NYT April 26 2002) 73 Venezuela 3 April 11 2002 Some 150,000 people rally in support of strike and oil protest. National Guard and proChavez gunmen clash with protesters - more than 10 are killed and 110 injured. Military high command rebels and demands that Chavez resign. April 12 2002 Armed forces head announces Chavez has resigned, a claim later denied by Chavez. Chavez is taken into military custody in a Island in the Caribbean. CIA airplane involved. Military names Pedro Carmona, one of the strike organizers, as head of transitional government. The coup arises from a national strike called by Fedecámaras, La Confederación de Trabajadores de Venezuela (CTV) and the so-called Coordinadora Democrática. April 14 2002 Chavez returns to office after the collapse of the interim government. December 2002 Opposition strike cripples the oil industry. Organizers demand that Chavez resign. The nine-week stoppage leads to fuel shortages. May 2003- 2004 Opposition delivers petition with more than three million signatures demanding referendum on Chavez's rule. Government and opposition sign deal brokered by Organization of American States (OAS) which sets out framework for referendum on Hugo Chavez's rule. Referendum on August 2003. Carter and other international observers validate Chavez popular victory in the referendum. March 2004 The opposition calls for a general strike. During the recent general strike, independent media stations broadcast an estimated 700 pro-strike (and anti-Chavez) advertisements a day, according to government reports. During the same two-month period, President Chavez used 40 hours of airtime, in addition to his weekly television and radio program Hello President. (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 74 Clashes between opponents and supporters of President Chavez, several people are killed and many are injured. Venezuela 4 January 2005 President Chavez signs decree on land reform which aims to eliminate Venezuela's large estates. President says land redistribution will bring justice to rural poor; ranchers say move is an attack on private property. December 2005 Parties loyal to President Chavez make big gains in parliamentary elections. Opposition parties boycott the poll, leaving parliament entirely made up of supporters of the president. December 2006 Hugo Chavez wins a third term in presidential elections with 63% of the vote. January 2007 Chavez announces that key energy and telecommunications companies will be nationalized. National Assembly grants President Chavez sweeping powers to rule by decree for the next eighteen months (this is stipulated in the present and previous constitution and has been granted to many previous presidents). Chavez announces the formation of the Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela which aims to unite all the forces from the left under his command including groups that have called for “Chavismo without Chavez.” (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 75 Figure 3.4: Freedom House Ratings for Venezuela, 1972-2000 7 1989 1976 1996 1972 2000 Political Rights 4 1992 1999 1 1 4 7 Civil Liberties Note: We have inverted the actual Freedom House ratings, which run from 1 (high) to 7 (low). Source: Freedom House 2000. (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) Taken From: Tilly and Tarrow (2007:65) 76 Analytic Devises I. Forms of struggle change in time and in relation to the POS and regime type. II. We observe a rise in the intensity of claim making along with changes in the regime and other contentious events. The waves observable in Venezuela 1983-1999 are comparable to Beissinger USSR 1987-1992, and Tarrow’s Italy 1966-1973. Take home point: • Venezuelan forms of collective claim making change with the struggles over the character of the regime. So as regime transition occur, with Chavez in 1999, there is a peaking on the number and intensity of struggles because both losers and winners are stepping up their claims. (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 77 Contention in Venezuela Lopez Maya et al. (2002) Figure 3.1: Protest Events in Venezuela, 1983-1999 400 Cumulative Number of Events 350 300 250 Violent Confrontational Conventional 200 150 100 50 0 1983 1988 1993 1998 Year (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 78 Sources Event catalogue compiled by Ernesto Castañeda from: • López Maya, Margarita cited in Charles Tilly and Sidney Tarrow. 2005.“Contentious Politics.” Boulder: CO. Paradigm Press. And Chapter III in Tilly and Tarrow 2005. • López Maya, Margarita Venezuela en la encrucijada • http://www.aporrea.org/actualidad/a1670.html • PBS online http://www.pbs.org/frontlineworld/stories/venezuela/facts.ht ml • BBC Online http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/country_profiles/122934 8.stm (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 79 Tilly (2007) (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 80 Tilly’s Definition of Regime • Regime, set of relations between states and citizens, and major political actors, including groups such as parties, corporations, labor unions, organized ethnic groups, patronclient networks, warlords, etc. (adapted from Tilly 2007:12). (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 81 The Simple Regime Model Challenger Regime Member Outside Actor Government Regime Limits of Government’s Jurisdiction Outside of Regime Coalitions (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 82 Regimes and Democracy (make up for March 19th lecture) Capacity and Consultation • State capacity and its relation with state-society consultation; institutionalized relations among governments and political actors, especially at state level. • Governmental capacity: extent of control by state agents over people, activities, and resources within the government's claimed jurisdiction; e.g. compare China with Rwanda. • Extent of protected consultation: collective control by subjects over governmental personnel, resources, and action; at high end, democracy. (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 83 Democratization and De-Democratization (make up for lecture on March 26th) Democratization occurs when a regime moves toward these conditions: • regular and categorical, rather than intermittent and individualized, relations between the government and its subjects: citizenship • those relations include most or all subjects: breadth • those relations are equal across subjects and categories of subjects: equality • governmental personnel, resources, and performances change in response to binding collective consultation of subjects: binding consultation • subjects, especially members of minorities, receive protection from arbitrary action by governmental agents: protection Moves away from these conditions qualify as de- democratization (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 84 These processes generally promote democratization: • increases in the sheer number of people available for participation in public politics and/or in connections among those people • equalization of resources and connections among those people • insulation of public politics from existing social inequalities • integration of interpersonal trust networks into public politics • reversals of these processes promote de-democratization Major forms of struggle that have often activated these processes: • • • • revolution conquest confrontation colonization and de-colonization 85 (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) Freedom House Checklist for Political Rights and Civil Liberties Political Rights • • • • • • • • • • Is the head of state and/or head of government or other chief authority elected through free and fair elections? Are the legislative representatives elected through free and fair elections? Are there fair electoral laws, equal campaigning opportunities, fair polling, and honest tabulations of ballots? Are the voters able to endow their freely elected representatives with real power? Do the people have the right to organize in different political parties or other competitive political groupings of their choice, and is the system open to the rise and fall of these competing parties or groupings? Is there a significant opposition vote, de facto opposition power, and a realistic possibility for the opposition to increase its support or gain power through elections? Are the people free from domination by the military, foreign powers, totalitarian parties, religious hierarchies, economic oligarchies, or any other powerful group? Do cultural, ethnic, religious, and other minority groups have reasonable selfdetermination, self-government, autonomy, or participation through informal consensus in the decision-making process? (Discretionary) For traditional monarchies that have no parties or electoral process, does the system provide for consultation with the people, encourage discussion of policy, and allow the right to petition the ruler? (Discretionary) Is the government or occupying power deliberately changing the ethnic composition of a country or territory so as to destroy a culture or tip the political balance in favor of another group? (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 86 Freedom House Checklist for Political Rights and Civil Liberties Civil Liberties • • • • • • • • • • • • Is there freedom of assembly, demonstration, and open public discussion? Is there freedom of political or quasi-political organization, including political parties, civic organizations, ad hoc issue groups, etc.? Are there free trade unions and peasant organizations or equivalents, and is there effective collective bargaining? Are there free professional and other private organizations? Is there an independent judiciary? Does the rule of law prevail in civil and criminal matters? Is the population treated equally under the law? Are police under direct civilian control? Is there protection from political terror, unjustified imprisonment, exile, or torture, whether by groups that support or oppose the system? Is there freedom from war and insurgencies? Is there freedom from extreme government indifference and corruption? Is there open and free private discussion? Is there personal autonomy? Does the state control travel, choice of residence, or choice of employment? Is there freedom from indoctrination and excessive dependency on the state? Are property rights secure? Do citizens have the right to establish private businesses? Is private business activity unduly influenced by government officials, the security forces, or organized crime? Are there personal social freedoms, including gender equality, choice of marriage partners, and size of family? Is there equality of opportunity, including freedom from exploitation by or dependency on landlords, employers, union leaders, bureaucrats, or other types of obstacles to a share of legitimate economic gains? Adapted by Tilly from Karatnycky 2000: 584-585. (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 87 Democracy Today and Tomorrow (make up for March 28th) Measuring Democratization • Freedom House monitoring defines “democracy” as civilian government competitively elected by general adult suffrage, with parties having significant public access to voters [weak criterion]. • Freedom House also makes more refined ratings of political rights and civil liberties, based on with scores from 1 (high) to 7 (low) on each item. “Free” means that ratings for political rights and civil liberties averaged 3 or less; “Not Free” meant average greater than 5.5. • By that standard 1900: 0 of 55 independent national regimes; 1950: 22 of 80; 2003: 117 of 192; (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 88 Freedom House Ratings of European Countries on Political Rights and Civil Liberties, 2001 1,3: Bulgaria, Greece 1 2 2,4: Moldova 3 3,4: Albania 1,2: Belgium, Czech Rep., Estonia, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, United Kingdom Political Rights 4 4,5: Turkey 4,4: Macedonia, Ukraine 1,1: Andorra, Austria, Greek Cyprus, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Ireland, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, San Marino, Sweden, Switzerland 2,2: Croatia, Romania 2,1: Monaco 3,3: Yugoslavia NO BINDING, GENERAL, COMPETITIVE ELECTIONS = UNDEMOCRATIC 5 5,5: Russia 6 5,4: BosniaHerzegovina 6,6: Belarus 7 7 6 5 4 3 (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) Civil Liberties 2 1 89 Source: Compiled from Freedom House 2000 Trajectories of Four Post-Socialist Regimes, 1991-2001 1 2 Estonia Croatia 3 Political Rights4 Russia 5 Belarus 6 7 7 6 5 4 3 (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) Civil Liberties 2 1 90 Freedom House Ratings for All Countries by Total Population, 1981-2002 7000 6000 5000 Not Free 4000 Partly Free M i l l i ons of P e opl e Free 3000 2000 1000 0 1981 1985 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 91 • note low point of 1994, with some recovery since then (India back in free as of 1999), with about half the world’s “unfree” population in China by these measures and 41 percent of world population lives in free countries. Violent Specialists Intra & Interstate Wars Castañeda April 4th, 2007 • Official specialists in coercion: police, military, guards, etc. • Institutionalized coercive systems: paramilitaries, guerrillas, posses, vigilantes, drug lords, mercenaries, organized crime, mafiosi, etc. • Non-institutionalized violence: street robbers, sporadic crime, personal vendettas, etc. • There is a continuum from state agents to thugs (legitimacy determined by third party support for coercive action from these groups). (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 92 Mafias and Mercenaries • Mafiosi are “first and foremost entrepreneurs in one particular commodity—protection . . .” (see Diego Gambetta 1993). • Mafiosi are sellers of protection; hence privatizers of public goods. When, then, should we expect mafias to proliferate? We observe a near disappearance of Sicilian mafia under fascism, and reappearance with liberation. Revival in the U.S. meant a later revival in Italy. • Likewise, mercenaries sell protection but at a larger scale. (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 93 Space, States, and Specialists in Violence High S P E C I F I C I T Y POLICE REGULAR ARMY G A N G S MERCENARIES OF T E R R I T O R Y MAFIA, THUGS, ETC. Low Local (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) Area National 94 History of Western Wars From Militias Feudal levies Mercenaries Pirates Bandits To Rise of consolidated states Concentrated coercion Rise of interstate violence Militarization of deaths National armies Mass conscription (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 95 Further resources: Tilly, Charles. War Making and State Making as Organized Crime in Bringing the State Back In edited by Peter Evans, Dietrich Rueschemeyer, and Theda Skocpol. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1985 pp. 169–191. Barkey, Karen. 1994. Bandits and Bureaucrats: The Ottoman Route to State Centralization. Cornell University Press. (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 96 Source: Mary Kaldor. 2006 [1991]. New Wars Old Wars. Blackwell. Figure 2.1 (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 97 World death rate for large-scale war Time 18th century Rough amount of deaths per million of population. 90/million 19th century 150/million 20th century 430/million (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 98 Increases in civilian deaths Time Percent of civilian casualties World War I 5 percent World War II 50 percent Wars of the 1990s 90 percent (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 99 Number of Civil Wars per Year, 1960-1999 30 25 20 15 10 5 (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 99 19 96 19 93 19 90 19 87 19 84 19 81 19 78 19 75 19 72 19 69 19 66 19 63 19 19 60 0 100 (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 101 Source: Mary Kaldor. 2006 [1991]. New Wars Old Wars. Figure 5.1 (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 102 New and Old Wars Logistical/organizational differences • “old wars”: vertically organized, territorially contiguous governments with built-in military support systems, taxation, conscription. • “new wars”: relative weakening of states, cross-cutting organizations, international networks, segmentary recruitment, related to flows of precious commodities, including oil, diamonds, and human labor. (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 103 Tilly’s Conclusions 1) During the monopolization of force by great states that occurred in the West from the 17th to 20th centuries domestic violence decreased dramatically, independent military forces lost ground enormously, but states engaged in increasingly destructive international warfare, 2) During the 20th century however, civilians increasingly became victims through bombing and other changes in military tactics, 3) After World War II warfare shifted for a while to anti-colonial struggles, but interstate wars then declined remarkably in overall frequency and intensity –despite Afghanistan and Iraq! 4) Within newly independent states, military internal struggles for control -civil wars -- multiplied into the 1990s, 5) Once most such struggles got settled in post-socialist states, civil wars began to decline in frequency, although they didn't disappear as Congo, Sri Lanka, and Colombia indicate, by U.S. official figures terror attacks generally declined along with civil wars, despite 9/11. [It certainly doesn't seem like it from the news, which necessarily emphasizes violent conflict, but on the whole intrastate and interstate violence are declining. That is partly a result of the slow, partial advance of semi-democratic regimes]. (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 104 Terror and Politics April 9th, 2007 What is terror? • Asymmetrical use of violence and threats of violence against political enemies. Terror as strategy: • Signals that the target is vulnerable, that the perpetrators exist, that the perpetrators have the capacity to strike again. • Signals typically reach three different audiences: the targets themselves, potential allies of the perpetrators, and third parties that might cooperate with one or the other. (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 105 Terrorism as a political tool • a recurrent strategy of intimidation occurs widely in contentious politics, and corresponds approximately to what many people mean by terror • a wide variety of individuals, groups, and networks sometimes employ that strategy. • the strategy relates systematically to other forms of political struggle proceeding in the same settings and populations • specialists in coercion ranging from government employees to bandits sometimes deploy terror under certain political circumstances, usually with far more devastating effects than the terror operations of non-specialists • examples: Basque country, Rwanda, anti-abortion activism in the U.S.(Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 106 Typology of Terror-Wielding Groups and Networks Specialists MILITIAS CONSPIRATORS Degree of Specialization ORDINARY MILITANTS in Coercion Non-specialists AUTONOMISTS Home Territory ZEALOTS Outside Home Territory (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 107 Definitions of Terrorism Used in State Department Reports • • • • • • No one definition of terrorism has gained universal acceptance. For the purposes of this report, however, we* have chosen the definition of terrorism contained in Title 22 of the United States Code, Section 2656(d). That statute contains the following definitions: The term terrorism means premeditated, politically motivated violence perpetrated against noncombatant targets by subnational groups or clandestine agents, usually intended to influence an audience. The term international terrorism means terrorism involving citizens of the territory of more than one country. The term terrorist group means any group practicing, or that has significant subgroups that practice, international terrorism. The US Government has employed this definition of terrorism for statistical and analytical purposes since 1983. Domestic terrorism is probably a more widespread phenomenon than international terrorism. Because international terrorism has a direct impact on US interests, it is the primary focus of this report. However, the report also describes, but does not provide statistics on, significant developments in domestic terrorism (State 2004: xii). * i.e. State Department reporters (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 108 Significant Terrorist Incidents, January 2003, According to U.S. State Department Date Incident • 1/5 India: In Kulgam, Kashmir, a hand grenade exploded at a bus station injuring 40 persons: 36 private citizens and four security personnel, according to press reports. No one claimed responsibility. • 1/5 Pakistan: In Peshawar, armed terrorists fired on the residence of an Afghan diplomat, injuring a guard, according to press reports. The diplomat was not in his residence at the time of the incident. No one claimed responsibility. • 1/5 Israel: In Tel Aviv, two suicide bombers attacked simultaneously, killing 23 persons including: 15 Israelis, two Romanians, one Ghanaian, one Bulgarian, three Chinese, and one Ukrainian and wounding 107 others – nationalities not specified – according to press reports. The attack took place in the vicinity of the old central bus station where foreign national workers live. The detonations took place within seconds of each other and were approximately 600 feet apart, in a pedestrian mall and in front of a bus stop. The al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade was responsible. • 1/12 Pakistan: In Hyderabad, authorities safely defused a bomb placed in a toilet of a Kentucky Fried Chicken restaurant, according to press reports. Two bomb explosions in Hyderabad in recent months have killed a total of four persons and injured 33 others, all Pakistanis. No one has claimed responsibility. (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 109 Significant Terrorist Incidents 2 • 1/21 Kuwait: In Kuwait City, a gunman ambushed a vehicle at the intersection of alJudayliyat and Adu Dhabi, killing one US citizen and wounding another US citizen. The victims were civilian contractors working for the US military. The incident took place close to Camp Doha, an installation housing approximately 17,000 US troops. On 23-24 January, a 20-year-old Kuwaiti civil servant, Sami al-Mutayri, was apprehended attempting to cross the border from Kuwait to Saudi Arabia. Al-Mutayri confessed to the attack and stated that he embraces al-Qaida ideology and implements Usama Bin Ladin’s instructions although there is no evidence of an organizational link. The assailant acted alone but had assistance in planning the ambush. No group has claimed responsibility. • 1/22 Colombia: In Arauquita, military officials reported either the National Liberation Army (ELN) or the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) terrorists bombed a section of the Cano Limon-Covenas oil pipeline, causing an unknown amount of damage. The pipeline is owned by US and Colombian oil companies. • 1/24 Colombia: In Tame, rebels kidnapped two journalists working for the Los Angeles Times. One was a British reporter and the other a US photographer. The ELN is responsible. The two journalists were released unharmed on 1 February 2003. • 1/27 Afghanistan: In Nangarhar, two security officers escorting several United Nations vehicles were killed when armed terrorists attacked their convoy, according to press reports. No one claimed responsibility. • 1/31 India: In Srinigar, Kashmir, armed terrorists killed a local journalist when they entered his office, according to press reports. No one claimed responsibility. • Source: State 2004: 95-96. (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 110 Connection Between Large Inequalities and Social Unrest India's Naxalites “Other terrorists attack the Indian state at its strong points—its secularism, its inclusiveness, its democracy. Naxalism attacks where it is weakest: in delivering basic government services to those who need them most. The Naxalites do not threaten the government in Delhi, but they do have the power to deter investment and development in some of India's poorest regions, which also happen to be among the richest in some vital resources—notably iron and coal. So their movement itself has the effect of sharpening inequity, which many see as the biggest danger facing India in the next few years, and which is the Naxalites' recruiting sergeant.” The Economist August 17th, 2006. cited in Neha Nimmagudda’s student memo http://economist.com/world/asia/displaystory.cfm?story_id=7799247 (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 111 Considerations • Terrorism paradox, when there is relative peace, terrorism becomes very visible in the medias, it appears as big concern for governments, and is therefore more effective in causing terror among the civilian population. • In high and medium capacity states terrorist and security threats can provide grounds for growing authoritarianism to appear. • In low capacity democratizing states, terrorism and organized crime pose a great threat to democratization and to a consolidation of state capacity. (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 112 Revolutions (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 113 Revolutions • Revolution = forcible transfer of power over a state in the course of which at least two distinct blocs of contenders make incompatible claims to control the state, and some significant portion of the population subject to the state’s jurisdiction acquiesces in the claims of each bloc. • A full revolution combines a revolutionary situation with a revolutionary outcome. (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 114 Revolutionary Situations 1) contenders or coalitions of contenders advancing exclusive competing claims to control of the state or some segment of it: mobilization process. 2) commitment to those claims by a significant segment of the citizenry: mobilization plus diffusion 3) incapacity or unwillingness of rulers to suppress the alternative coalition and/or commitment to its claims: ruler-subject interaction (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 115 Revolutionary Outcomes 1) defections of regime members 2) acquisition of armed force by revolutionary coalitions 3) neutralization or defection of the regime’s armed force 4) control of the state apparatus by members of revolutionary coalition 5) transfer of state power to new ruling coalition. (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 116 CONFLICT, REVOLT, AND REVOLUTION complete great revolution civil war top-down seizure of power TRANSFER OF POWER coup revolt routine politics none none (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) SPLIT IN REGIME complete 117 How to Analyze Contentious Event Catalogues Adapted from Tilly’s “How to Detect and Describe Performances and Repertoires” Chapter 2 of upcoming book “Contentious Performances” April 11th, 2007 (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 118 Aerial Graph of Contention in Russia (based on Bessinger 2001). Figure 5.4: Demonstrations and Violent Events in the Soviet Union and Successor States, 1987-1992 300 250 Violent Events Cumulative Number of Events Demonstrations 200 150 100 50 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 0 Year Source: Data Supplied by Mark Beissinger (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 119 Event Analysis • The fundamental unit of analysis in this study is the contentious event. • Event analysis is widely recognized as a tool for studying waves of mobilization. • It is essentially a way of tracking over time the rise and fall of particular types of events and the features associated with them (Beissinger 2002: 42). (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 120 Different Soviet nationalities staged protest demonstrations month by month from 1987 through 1991 (Beissinger 2002: 84). For the most active, these were the peak months: • • • • • • • • • • Armenians Estonians Moldavians Russians Crimean Tatars Ukrainians Latvians Lithuanians Azerbaijanis Georgians May 1988 November 1988 February 1989 January 1990 April 1990 November 1990 December 1990 December 1990 December 1990 September 1991 (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 121 Results • “In all, I have been able to identify thirty-two major waves of nationalist violence in the former USSR during the 1987-92 period, part of sixteen larger ethnonationalist conflicts involving violence during these years. Only in four of these conflicts (the Azerbaijani-Armenian conflict, the GeorgianOssetian conflict, the Georgian-Abkhaz conflict, and the Moldovan-Transdniestr conflict) did violence become a selfsustaining strategy of contesting state boundaries, with relatively short waves of violence growing increasingly protracted over time. In all other cases, violent mobilization remained short-lived. What distinguished conflicts in which mass violence grew sustained from those in which violence ceased to proliferate was the relationship of state institutions to the production of violence” (Beissinger 2002: (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 122 309). Graficas de violencia Source: Samuel González Ruiz Mexican specialist in comparative legal systems, in relation to the fight and prosecution of organized crime. Increase of Violence in Mexico due to Organized Crime 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 Niveles de Violencia en México Violencia mortal Terrorist a Violencia mortal intimidat oria Generaliz ada Utilizació n de armas de destrucci ón media. Violencia contra políticos y de primer nivel Violencia mortal contra funcionar ios y periodista s Violencia mortal contra Terceros Violencia mortal contra Rivales Violencia física 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 9 9 9 19 98 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 6 X 5 6 X X 7 8 13 14 X XX 25 23 15 X 16 X X X X X 17 19 18 XX 26 27 24 Violencia Moral 1 9 9 0 1 9 8 9 35 36 X 10 11 37 38 39 X 21 22 X X X X 1 30 28 31 1 9 8 8 1 9 8 7 1 9 8 6 1 9 8 5 1 9 8 4 40 32 X X X X X X X 43 41 44 2 45 46 X X 47 48 49 X X X X XX X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X x 50 51 52 53 55 56 57 54 X X X X XX X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 67 68 69 70 71 72 X x x 73 66 X X X X XX X X X X X X X X X X XX X X X x x (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 1 1 9 9 1 X X 29 42 34 20 X X X X X X XX X X X 33 1 9 9 2 9 X XX X X 12 1 9 9 3 2 X XX X 4 1 9 9 4 X 1 3 1 9 9 5 74 124 X X X X XX X X X X X X X X X X XX X X X x x Reduction of Violence in Colombia 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 Niveles de Violenc ia en Colom bia Violenc ia Terrori sta Violen. intimid atoria. General izada armas de destruc ción media. Violenc ia contra político s y de primer nivel Violenc ia mortal contra funcion arios y periodi stas Violenc ia mortal contra Tercero s Violenc ia mortal contra Rivales Violenc ia física 0 7 0 6 0 5 X X X 1 2 3 0 4 2000 9 9 XXX X x 4 7 X X X 15 16 17 0 3 5 0 2 0 1 6 X X 19 Violenc ia Moral 97 9 6 9 5 9 4 8 9 3 9 2 9 1 9 0 25 26 27 8 7 8 6 8 5 8 4 X 9 11 14 13 10 12 82 X X 21 8 3 23 22 X X X X X X 24 8 8 XXX X X 20 8 9 XX 18 X 28 x X 29 X X X X X X X 30 31 32 33 34 35 XXx x 39 36 37 X X X X x 43 45 46 44 X X X X X X X 52 X 70 53 54 55 56 57 X X X X X X X X X X X 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 66 72 41 68 73 X 42 XX x 51 50 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 69 XXX 74 x x 75 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) XXXXXXX 65 67 x X 40 49 XXXX 71 X X X X X X X 38 X X X X Xx 47 48 76 1 9 8 125 X X X X X X X X X X X X X XX X 77 Trends of Organized Crime in Ireland (not linked to terrorist organizations) Niveles de Violencia en Irlanda 0 7 0 6 Violencia mortal Terrorista Violencia mortal intimidatoria . Generalizada Utilización de armas de destrucción media. Violencia contra políticos y de primer nivel Violencia mortal contra funcionarios y periodistas 0 5 0 4 0 3 0 2 9 9 98 9 7 9 6 9 5 94 9 3 9 2 9 1 9 0 8 9 8 8 8 7 x X x X vi 8 6 8 5 8 4 8 3 8 2 X ii iii X X ix x vii x x xi xii ivv viii X X Violencia mortal contra Rivales X X X X X X xxxii xxx xxvii xxix xxxi Violencia Moral 2 0 0 0 Xi Violencia mortal contra Terceros Violencia física 0 1 xiii xiv x xv x xvi Xxvii X xviii x X xx xix x xxi X xxii X xxiii X xxiv X X xxv xxvi x x x x x x xxxiii xxxiv xxxv xxxvi xxxvii xxxviii xxviii (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) X 126xxxix X x xl xli Violence in Italy 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Niveles de Violencia en Italia. Violencia mortal Terrorist a Violencia mortal intimidat oria. Generaliz ada Utilizaci ón de armas de destrucci ón media. Violencia contra políticos y de primer nivel Violencia mortal contra funcionar ios y periodist as Violencia mortal contra Terceros Violencia mortal contra Rivales Violencia física Violencia Moral 0 6 0 5 0 4 0 3 0 2 0 1 2 0 0 0 99 9 8 97 9 6 9 5 9 4 9 3 9 2 9 1 9 0 8 9 88 8 6 8 5 X XX i 8 7 8 3 82 X iii ii 8 4 iv X X X X X X XX X X X v X X vi X ix X vii viii X X XX XX XX x xi xii xiv xv xiii xvi xvii X1 x x xviii xix X xx X xxi X xxii X xxiii X Xxxv xxiv X X xxvi xxvii X X X X xxviii xxix xxx xxxi X xxxii X X X X XX xxxiii X X X X X X XX xxxv xxxvi xl X X X X X X X X X X X XX X X xli X X X X X X XX X X X X X X XX xxxiv x x xxxviii xxxix xxxvii xlii xliii X X X X X X X X X X X XX X X 127 X X X X X X X X X X X XX X X (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) Reported “corruption” offences - rates per 100.000 inhabitants (Italy 1989-2000) Rates per 100.000 inhabitants 1,40 1,20 1,00 0,80 0,60 0,40 0,20 0,00 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Year “Concussione” Passive corruption Active corruption (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) Instigation to corruption 128 Convicted people for “corruption” offences Rates per 100.000 inhabitants (Italy 1989-2000) 0,60 Rates per 100.000 inhabitants 0,50 0,40 0,30 0,20 0,10 0,00 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Year “Concussione” Passive corruption Active corruption Instigation to corruption 129 • “La relación entre la violencia, la corrupción y la obstrucción a la justicia son de protección directa de la delincuencia organizada y se configuran como un círculo exterior que protege el silencio o la oferta de las organizaciones criminales” (Gonzalez y Flores 2007). Organized Crime ↔ Corruption ↔ Obstruction of Justice = Escalation of Violence and Loss of State Capacity Source forthcoming as: . “Violencia, corrupción y narcotráfico: el desafío del México democrático. ”González Ruiz, Samuel y Carlos Flores.” Foreign Affairs en Español ▪ Volumen 7 Número 2. Special thanks to Samuel Ruiz for sharing his research and slides with the Mexican Graduate Student Groups at Conferences at Yale and Columbia. 130 Tarrow’s Italy Study • • • • • • Tarrow examined Italy’s cycle of protest from 1965 to 1975, for which the national newspaper Corriere della Sera yielded 4,980 “protest events”, nonroutine actions in which the participants revealed a collective goal. Tarrow tells us, I collected information on ‘protest events’, a category which included strikes, demonstrations, petitions, delegations, and violence, but which excluded contentious behavior which revealed no collective claims on other actors. I defined the protest event as a disruptive direct action on behalf of collective interests, in which claims were made against some other group, elites, or authorities (Tarrow 1989: 359). Tarrow produced a record for each event. But he enriched the enterprise in two important ways: First, he incorporated textual descriptions at a number of critical points – summaries of events, grievances, policy responses, and more. That made it possible to refine his classified counts without returning to the original newspaper sources. Second, within the record he placed checklists where two or more features could coexist. As a result, he was able to analyze not only the overall distribution of events but also the frequency of such features as different forms of violence – clashes with police, violent conflict, property damage, violent attacks, rampages, and random violence (Tarrow 1989: 78). (Taken from Tilly Contentious Repertoires. Forthcoming [It has now appeared in Cambridge university Press. 2008]). 131 Figure 5.2: Italian Contention, 1966-1973 600 550 500 450 400 350 Conventional Events 300 Confrontational Events Violent Events 250 200 150 100 50 66 .1 66 .2 67 .1 67 .2 68 .1 68 .2 69 .1 69 .2 70 .1 70 .2 71 .1 71 .2 72 .1 72 .2 73 .1 73 .2 0 Semester Source: Tarrow 1989: p. 70 132 (Source: Tilly and Tarrow 2007) Tilly’s Great Britain Study • • • • • Over about ten years, research groups at the University of Michigan and the New School for Social Research worked with me to create a systematic body of evidence on actions, interactions, performances, repertoires, and their settings in Great Britain between 1758 and 1834. The central data set we produced includes machine-readable descriptions for 8,088 contentious gatherings (CGs) that occurred in southeastern England (Kent, Middlesex, Surrey, or Sussex) during thirteen selected years from 1758 to 1820, or anywhere in Great Britain (England, Scotland, and Wales, but not Ireland) from 1828 to 1834. In this study, a CG is an occasion on which ten or more people gathered in a publiclyaccessible place and visibly made claims which, if realized, would affect the interests of at least one person outside their number. In principle, CGs include almost all events that authorities, observers, or historians of the time would have called "riots" or "disturbances" as well as even more that would fall under such headings as "public meeting", "procession" and "demonstration". Our standardized descriptions of CGs come from periodicals: the Annual Register, Gentleman's Magazine, London Chronicle, Morning Chronicle, Times, Hansard's Parliamentary Debates, Mirror of Parliament, and Votes and Proceedings of Parliament; we read these periodicals exhaustively for the years in question plus January-June 1835. Although we frequently consulted both published historical work and archival sources such as the papers of the Home Office in interpreting our evidence, the machine-readable descriptions transcribed material from the periodicals alone. We did not try to find every event about which information was available or even a representative sample of such events. Instead, we assembled a complete enumeration of those described in standard periodicals whose principles of selection we could examine, and sometimes even test. (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 133 Tilly’s Great Britain Study Tilly laced computer-stored records for Contentious Events into separate sections and provided: • a general description of each event (8,088 machine-readable records) • a description of each formation -- each person or set of persons who acted distinguishably during the event (27,184 records) • supplementary information on the geographical or numerical size of any formation, when available (18,413 records) • a summary of each distinguishable action by any formation, including the actor(s), the crucial verb, (where applicable) the object of the action, and an excerpt of the text(s) from which we drew actor, verb, and object (50,875 records) • excerpts from detailed texts from which we drew summary descriptions of actions (76,189 records) • identification of each source of the account (21,030 records) • identification of each location in which the action occurred (11,054 records) • a set of verbal comments on the event, or on difficulties in its transcription (5,450 records) • special files listing all alternative names for formations and all individuals mentioned in any account (28,995 formation names, 26,318 individual names) • Except for straightforward items such as date, day of the week, and county names, the records do not contain codes in the usual sense of the term. On the whole, we transcribed words from the texts or (when that was not feasible) paraphrases of those words. Think of formation names: Instead of coding names given to formations in broad categories, we transcribed the actual words used in our sources. • For example, the transcription of each action includes the actor’s name, a verb characterizing the action, and (in the roughly 52 percent of cases in which there was an object) the object’s name. (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 134 Subject – Verb - Object Transcription subject verb object the same night the mob (gathered) mob #gather none the mob committed great violences in Surry-Street, in the Strand, particularly at the Coach Office, not a window was left with a whole pane of glass mob #break owner of Coach Office (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 135 My research team found multiple accounts of these attacks in 1829’s Times of London. Here is how we transcribed and classified the major actions within a cutting incident on May 4th: Transcription Verb Broad Verb Category certain evil-disposed persons riotously assembled assemble move entered the dwellings of the journeymen silk weavers enter move and maliciously cut and destroyed the silk in the looms destroy attack #end #end end a reward of 200L is hereby offered offer negotiate The left hand verb presents our simplified transcription of the phrase’s central action. The right hand column shows our placement in one of eight extremely broad categories of verbs: attack, control, end, meet, move, negotiate, support, and other. (More on verb categories in a moment.) Source: Tilly. Contentious Performances Chapter 2. Unpublished draft 2007. (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 136 Figure 2-3: Major Categories of Verbs in British Contentious Gatherings, 1758-1834 100% Percent of All CGs Featuring Verbs in Category 90% 80% 70% 60% ATTACK CONTROL MEET OTHER 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1758 1759 1768 1769 1780 1781 1789 1795 1801 1807 1811 1819 1820 1828 1829 1830 1831 1832 1833 1834 Year 137 (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) Figure 2-2: Locations of Action Verbs in Two Factor Space F1 = Indoor (low) vs. Outdoor (high) F2 = Disagreement (low) vs. Agreement (high) GATHER 0.90 MOVE CONTROL 0.60 PROCEED DISPERSE SUPPORT NEGOTIATE RESIST ENTER ATTACK 0.30 BLOCK DELIBERATE ATTEMPT ASSEMBLE FIGHT MARCH REQUEST F1 DECRY RECEIVE ADDRESS COMMUNICATE CHEER 0.00 OPPOSE -0.30 VOTE -0.60 PETITION HEARPET -0.90 CHAIR RESOLVE THANK MEET ADJOURN -0.90 -0.60 -0.30 0.00 0.30 0.60 0.90 F2 138 Over-represented Verb Categories* by Broad Type of Gathering, Great Britain, 1758-1834 • • • • • • • • • • • • • • authorized celebrations (78 CGs): bracket, celebrate, cheer, dine, enter, gather, observe, proceed, receive delegations (79): address, bracket, deliberate, gather, negotiate, proceed, receive, support parades, demonstrations, rallies (142): attempt, block, bracket, celebrate, cheer, decry, dine, enter, gather, march, negotiate, observe, oppose, other, proceed, receive, support, vote pre-planned meetings of named associations (985): dine, hear petition, meet, petition pre-planned meetings of public assemblies (3197): none other pre-planned meetings (1672): dine, meet strikes, turnouts (76): attack, attempt, block, control, deliberate, donkey, gather, hear petition, march, move, negotiate, observe, other, proceed, resist, turnout attacks on blacklegs (27): attack, block, control, decry, die, enter, fight, gather, move, observe, turnout brawls in drinking places (24): attack, attempt, block, bracket, celebrate, control, deliberate, dine, enter, fight, gather, give, move, negotiate, request, resist, turnout market conflicts (12): address, block, gather, negotiate, oppose, other, proceed, request, support poachers vs. gamekeepers (71): attack, attempt, block, bracket, control, deliberate, die, disperse, enter, fight, gather, hunt, move, negotiate, observe, other, proceed smugglers vs. customs (49): attack, attempt, block, bracket, celebrate, control, die, fight, gather, give, move, observe, other, proceed, resist, smuggle other violent gatherings (1156): attack, attempt, block, bracket, control, decry, enter, fight, gather, give, march, move, negotiate, observe, petition, proceed, resist other unplanned gatherings (520): block, celebrate, cheer, control, decry, demonstrate, enter, gather, march, move, negotiate, observe, other, proceed • * over-represented = 2+ times the proportion in all gatherings or (in the case of end and meet, which appear in 73 and 54 percent of all gatherings respectively) 20%+ more than their general proportions (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 139 (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) From Hector Forero’s Student Memorandum 140 Takeshi Wada • Wada (Wada 2003, 2004) drew accounts of protest events from the daily newspapers Excélsior, Unomásuno, and La Jornada for 29-day periods spanning national elections over the 37 years, a total of 13 electoral periods. • From the newspapers he identified 2832 events, some linked together in campaigns, for a total of 1797 campaigns. • Wada’s subject-verb-object-claim transcriptions made it possible for him to employ sophisticated network models of who made claims on whom. Overall, they reveal a sharp politicization of Mexico’s collective claim making as the country’s partial democratization proceeded. From claims on business, landowners, and universities, protesters moved to making increasingly strong claims on the government itself. • According to Wada’s analysis, the weakening of network ties among the elite (especially as concentrated within the longtime ruling party PRI) provided an opportunity for claimants to divide their rulers. It thus advanced the partial democratization of the 1990s. Technically, Wada broke free of many restrictions imposed by classified event counts. That technical freedom opened the way to a sophisticated treatment of interaction in Mexican politics. Source: Wada, Takeshi (2003): “A Historical and Network Analysis of Popular Contention in the Age of Globalization in Mexico,” unpublished doctoral dissertation in sociology, Columbia University. (2004): “Event Analysis of Claim Making in Mexico: How Are Social Protests Transformed into Political Protests,” Mobilization 9: 241-258. (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 141 Lessons The innovations of Tilly, McPhail, Tarrow, Franzosi, Beissinger, Wada and others offer three lessons for analysts of contentious politics: • First, it is practically feasible to record and analyze the internal dynamics of episodes instead of settling for classified event counts. • Second, the recording of particular verbs rather than general characterization of the action is crucial for that practical purpose. • Third, verbs with objects make it possible to move from individualistic analyses to treatments of connections among contentious actors (relational). (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 142 Extra lecture: What Happened in Oaxaca? Triangulating Outside Witness Accounts to Analyze the Contentious Politics in Oaxaca, Mexico Nayeli Chavez-Geller, UNIVISION Rene Ramos, MPA Student SIPA Columbia Ivania de la Cruz Orozco, MPA Student SIPA Columbia Manuela Garza, The New School and Fundación Comunitaria Oaxaca Ernesto Castañeda-Tinoco, PhD Student Department of Sociology, Columbia Leslie A. Martino, PhD Student, Department of Sociology, CUNY, The Graduate Center Thursday April 12th, 2007 . Organized by Mexican Initiative Co-sponsored by the Institute of Latin American Studies, LASA-SIPA, and ALAS-TC. Brief overview on Oaxaca Completion rate of primary education below 88% Less than 87% of women assisted by a doctor during labor Infant mortality rate is above 30/1000 births 30% of the population lack access to running water 40% of the population live in houses with no sewage 7% of the population live in houses with no electricity There have been no Governors from opposition parties thus far Sources: Los Objetivos de Desarrollo del Milenio en México: Informe de Avance 2006 Map: http://oaxaca-travel.com INEGI Chronology Oaxaca 2006 • May 22: – Primary and Secondary school teachers from all over the state arrive to Oaxaca City to ask for wage increases (as they often do year after year) – State Governor offers only a third of what they ask for – Teachers block the access to government buildings, stores, gas stations, airport and main entrances to the city • June 14: – Governor withdraws offer and attempts to end the strike by using public force – The attack fails and professors are joined by NGOs and other social actors – Creation of the APPO • July: – PRI loses 9 out of 11 National Congress positions to the PRD – Implications: budget negotiations and political control • October 27: – At least 3 people are killed during a shooting, including journalist Bradley Roland Will • October 29-30: – Federal Police enters Oaxaca City (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) What Happened in Oaxaca? Triangulating Outside Witness Accounts to Analyze the Contentious Politics in Oaxaca, Mexico Ernesto Castañeda Before Police Repression of June 14th Mobilized Teachers Watching the World Cup Photos by Ernesto Castañeda June 10-18th, 2006 Teachers in the Public Plaza (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) During Police Repression (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 152 Source: http://www.asambleapopulardeoaxaca.com/ Source: http://www.asambleapopulardeoaxaca.com/ After Police Repression (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) Escalation of Demands and Polarization Increase in political gratifies across the city (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) Social Situation in Oaxaca • Important state/society divide. • Previous patronage and corporative relations disrupted. • Generalized discontent among organized groups. • Growing polarization between mobilized citizens, and small business owners, tourism workers and non-mobilized citizens. (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) APPO’s Programmatic Goals • • • • Scholarships, Better school infrastructure, Salary increases The resignation of the governor Ulises Ruiz so, as in the 18th century, the main target is not an abstract state but a concrete figure who is supposed to hold power (Tilly 2005, Foucault 1975). APPO’s self-declared goals also include: • a real democratic system, and • ideological elements such as the struggle against capitalism, imperialism and fascism. (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) APPO Repertoire • • • • • Extended sit-ins and camping downtown. Marches, demonstrations, and rallies. Pamphlets, flyers, radio programs, CDs. Members generally unarmed. Few violent attacks against state agents except for self-defense. • No civilian targets. • Have set fire to police vehicles and have entered public and private buildings that represent state power or large capital. (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) Photos NYT. Revolutionary Situation in Oaxaca? 1) contenders or coalitions of contenders advancing exclusive competing claims to control of the state or some segment of it: mobilization process. – YES (to an extent but later divisions would appear and most are for conducting changes through conventional electoral politics) 2) commitment to those claims by a significant segment of the citizenry: mobilization plus diffusion – YES within APPO but important opposition by other civil society groups specially small businesses and tourism industry would appear 3) incapacity or unwillingness of rulers to suppress the alternative coalition and/or commitment to its claims: rulersubject interaction – No. As of 2008 they have been able to placate the movement and the Governor still holds his post. (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) Revolutionary Outcomes (Table 7-2 Tilly 2006. Regimes and Repertoires.) 1) 2) 3) 4) defections of regime members acquisition of armed force by revolutionary coalitions neutralization or defection of the regime’s armed force control of the state apparatus by members of revolutionary coalition 5) transfer of state power to new ruling coalition. So far for Oaxaca the answer to these questions is NO (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) Anti-APPO mobilizations Source: “El Imparcial” References and sources: • • • • Michel Foucault. Discipline & Punish. 1975. Charles Tilly. 2004. Social Movements. Paradigm. Charles Tilly. 2005. Popular Contention in Great Britain. Charles Tilly and Sidney Tarrow. 2007. Contentious Politics. Paradigm. • Charles Tilly. 2006. Regimes and Repertoires. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. • Charles Tilly. 2007. Democracy. Cambridge. • • • • • http://web.media.mit.edu/~andresmh/oaxaca/ http://nyc.indymedia.org/en/bradleywill/archive.html http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G_JQfGfLEU8 http://www.narconews.com/otroperiodismo/oaxaca/en.html http://zapagringo.blogspot.com/2006/10/q-with-appo-spokesperson.html Local, National, and Transnational Social Movements April 16th, 2007 (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 167 Local Movements Going National (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 168 Repertoire Diffusion from Greensboro, NC to all the other Southern States (TT 07) Figure 9.2: Sit-Ins in the American South, February 1 to April 14, 1960 (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) Source: Andrews and Biggs 2005: Figure 2. 169 Figure 9.1 African-American Total Movement and Protest Events 700 Campaigns in Many States Number of Events 600 March on Washington 1963 500 400 All Events Protest Events Greensboro 1960 300 200 Brown 1954 100 0 1946 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 Year Source: Courtesy of J. Craig Jenkins. In TT 2007. Chapter 9. 170 Transnational Contention (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 171 Transnational Contention a) objects of claims - go beyond the nation-state, including: transnational corporations, international organizations such as the UN, WB, IMF, WTO, etc. and sets of countries such as EU, NATO, G8, etc. b) claimants – are not necessarily members of the state, are part of multinational coalitions. (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 172 Internationalization of claims CLAIMANTS: International Internationalization National Regional Local Local Regional National (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) OBJECTS OF CLAIMS International 173 Transnational contention yesterday • Religious mobilizations e.g. Protestant Reformation, Zionism, Islamism. • Formation of consolidated states, concentrated claims at a higher level (national); • Nevertheless, transnational action occurred: antislavery and temperance movements, Irish independence, anti-colonial mobilizations, world socialist federations, etc. • We’ve seen transnational targets and actors: interstate wars, nationalist wars, Rwandan civil war, Catholic visionaries, Soviet disintegration, antiwar protests. (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 174 Is something new happening? Shift of reformist, emancipatory and revolutionary hopes from national to international arenas: Global civil society (subject) - Empire (object) Is this Justified? • Reasons for saying YES: – INGO expansion, transnational networks, new technologies, globalization. • Reasons for saying NO: – persistent importance of strong social ties and trust networks for mobilization, local issues and persistence of social movement repertoire. (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 175 Yes Global Civil Society Events June-July 2003 (Tilly 2006 Table 8-1) • 6/1-3 Evian, France: 150,000 protesters demonstrate against the G8 meeting. • 6/7-10 Lisbon, Portugal: first Portuguese Social Forum • 6/16 China: in response to international anti-dam campaign, government admits that cracks have appeared in controversial Three Gorges Dam • 6/16-29 Cartagena de Indias, Colombia: following up Third World Social Forum, activists stage a forum on democracy, human rights, war, and drug trafficking • 6/20-22 Thessaloniki, Greece: first Greek Social Forum, marking culmination of protests during Greek presidency of the European Union • 6/20-25 Sacramento, USA: activists demonstrate at World Trade Organization [WTO] ministerial conference on agricultural science and technology. • 6/21-23 Cairo, Egypt: international women’s and children’s rights groups hold a threeday conference on legal instruments for the prevention of female genital mutilation. (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 176 Global Civil Society Events June-July 2003 (Tilly 2006 Table 8-1) • 6/26 Sharm al Shaikh, Egypt: WTO holds unofficial ministerial meeting, with NGO representatives (Greenpeace among them) excluded from closed sessions but present in public • 6/29 Calcutta, India: first gay pride march in India • 7/1 Hong Kong, China: 500,000 people march against new national security legislation for the region • 7/6 Reading, England: after worldwide controversy, canon Jeffery John, a gay celibate priest, withdraws his nomination as Anglican Bishop of Reading; later appointed Dean of Reading Cathedral • 7/15 Damascus, Syria: following human rights and civil liberties campaign, Syrian president pardons hundreds of prisoners and orders end of judicial pursuit for head of Syrian Human Rights Organization. • 7/16 Internet: site launched for World Campaign for In-depth Reform of the System of International Institutions. (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 177 Global Civil Society Events 2003 • 7/18 São Paulo, Brazil: judge suspends eviction of 4,000 members of Workers Without a Roof, who are squat-ting on a plot owned by Volkswagen • 7/21-24 Tegucigalpa, Honduras: fourth Foro Mesoamericano meets, campaigning against Free Trade Area of Americas and neo-liberalism • 7/23 Colombia: trade union members call for worldwide boycott of Coca-Cola, alleged to have employed militias for the murder of union members • 7/23 Juarez, Mexico: Mexican and international NGOs plus UN observers meet with government officials to demand end of violence including murders of women and children in Juarez. • 7/28-30 Montréal, Canada: during a WTO pre-meeting, hundreds of protesters demonstrate, some smashing storefront windows of multinational brands (Tilly 2006; summarized from Anheier, Glasius, Kaldor & Holland 2005: 354-355). (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 178 Migrant Transnational Communities Based on fieldwork, photos, and working papers by Ernesto Castañeda (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 179 Theoretical Framework Transnational practices link migrants with both the sending country and the receiving country, thus spanning national borders (R.C. Smith 1998, 2005; Levitt 2001; Massey et al 1987; Glick-Schiller et al. 1992; Goldring 1996) • • • • Transnational practices include: Physical the movements of people Transfers of goods and money (remittances) Exchanges of ideas, information and cultural values Peggy Levitt (2001) calls social remittances, to the set of habits, values, created needs and expectations brought home from another country. (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 180 New York-Guerrero Transnational Networks (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 181 Transnational Household Economies • By transnational household we mean nuclear or extended families divided in two countries where their shared combined income is used to support the life of a family (Smith, Castañeda, Martino et al. 2004). • The concept of transnational household economies captures both the economic and familial dimensions of social life and everyday practices • Transnational Household Economies also raise the issues of the division of labor across countries. E.g. child bearing and nurturing in Mexico, working cycle in the US, retiring in Mexico. • “Tele-parenting” and creating distorted population demographics. (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 182 Communication and Technology • Communication with families - telephone in home - telephone at community telephone stations - via messages from the indigenous radio station • Videos from community celebrations (Levitt 2001, Smith 1993, 2005). • Computer technology capacity in Mexico - limited number of Internet cafes in rural areas, - e-Mexico (government run computer rooms) (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 183 Transmigration as a rare and temporal phenomenon • • • • Not a new phenomenon Circular migration Not all migration is transnational Household transnational practices may be temporary • The state matters (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 184 Further Research Questions • Do these flows and practices show the existence of a transnational community? • What are the economic and social prospects for these communities? (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 185 Migration, Remittances and their Different Social Meanings Thursday May 17th, 2007 411 Fayerweather Hall 11:00 am to 4:00 p.m. -Kai Ho, Remittances and Rural-Urban Migration in Contemporary China, 1989 to 2004 -Jesus Fernandez-Huertas Moraga, New Evidence on Emigrant Selection -Randa Serhan, Building Uninhabited Villas: Resisting Occupation Through Construction in the West Bank -Ernesto Castaneda-Tinoco, Migration, Remittances, and Their Missing Link to Development (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 186 New Transnational Social Movements? (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 187 Are there appearing new transnational protest repertoires? Relation between regimes and repertoires – little change of the repertoire has occurred as social movements have become increasingly transnational in scope (Tilly, Regimes and Repertoires, 198). – And in that sense subjects are targeting the same type of objects. – Nonetheless, Donatella de la Porta claims that new repertoires are appearing e.g. social fora. (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 188 International-NGOs World Capitals 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. Brussels (1392) London (807) Paris (729) Washington (487) New York (390) Geneva (272) Rome (228) Vienna (190) Tokyo (174) Amsterdam (162) 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. Madrid (140) Stockholm (133) Buenos Aires (110) Copenhagen (108) Berlin (101) Nairobi (100) Oslo (95) Mexico City (87) Montréal (86) Milan (82) (List as of 2001) Source: Tilly R&C 2006:200 taken from Glasius, Kaldor & Anheier 189 2002: 6. (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) Warnings • Avoid technological determinism; – recognize that most new features of social movements result from alterations in their social and political contexts rather than from technical innovations as such. • Notice that communications innovations always operate in a two-sided way: – on one side, lowering the costs of coordination among activists who are already connected with each other; – on the other, excluding even more definitively those who lack access to the new communications means, and thus increasing communications inequality. And they also allowing larger state coordination and possibilities for repression. • Remember that most social movement activity continues to rely on the local, regional, and national forms of organization • Avoid the supposition that globalization and anti-globalization movements now dominates the social movement scene Despite internationalization, local, regional, and national issues in social movements persist. (Adapted from Tilly, Social Movements:98). (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 190 Other References: Tilly, Charles. 2006. Regimes and Repertoires. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press. Tarrow,Sidney. 2005. The New Transnational Activism. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Tarrow, Sidney and Donatella della Porta, eds. 2005. Transnational Protest and Global Activism. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield. McAdam, Doug, Sidney Tarrow and Charles Tilly. 2001.Dynamics of Contention. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Fisher, Dana. 2006. Activism Inc. How the Outsourcing of Grassroots Campaigns Is Strangling Progressive Politics in America. Stanford: Stanford University Press. (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 191 Possible Trade-Offs (depending on the case) • Professionalization • Institutionalization • Lack of Accountability • WUNC • Grassroots • Democratization (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 192 Globalization and Contention April 18th, 2007 (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 193 Globalization high impact of average intercontinental transaction/ equal impact of average local or regional transaction GLOBALIZATION low low high proportion of all transactions intercontinental (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 194 Globalization & De-Globalization • Globalization occurs when a distinctive set of social connections and practices expands from a regional to a transcontinental scale. • Globalization as a proxy for long distance transactions. • Transactions e.g. telephone calls, travel, transfers of funds, communications, trade, coordination of collective action, etc. • But if the relative size and impact of local or regional transactions actually increases faster than the proportion of all transactions passing between continents, de-globalization occurs. • Globalization is a two-way process, not an unstoppable force. (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 195 Waves of Globalization (after 1500) I. 1500-1650. – Growth of European influence in the old world, Africa, the Pacific, and the recently-discovered Americas. – Growth of the Ottoman Empire. – Parallel expansions of Chinese and Arab merchants networks into the Indian Ocean and Pacific. – In the 17th century large amounts of silver mined in South America were ending up in Chinese treasuries, drawn by the export of precious Chinese commodities to the West. II. 1850-1914. - Spread of railroads, steamships, telephone, and telegraph. - Unprecedented levels of trans-continental trade and investment that increased global disparities. III. Post-1945 - ? – Lost of state capacity to control transnational flows such as: capital, goods, labor, contraband, arms, etc. (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 196 Influenza across the World • In 1918 influenza (called the Spanish flu) caused 40 million deaths, as compared with 10 million in combats of World War I. The spread of the disease was aided by military personal mobilizations in World War I. (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 197 International Migration • People coming out of Africa 40,000+ years ago. • 1500-1650. – Large intercontinental migrations out of China, Europe, and the Middle East, slave trade. • 1850-1914. – 3 million Indians, – 9 million Japanese, – 10 million Russians, – 20 million Chinese, and – 33 million Europeans (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 198 Wave Turners • • • • • Wars e.g. World War I, World War II, “war on terror”? Great depression of 1929. Keynesian revolution. Social Democracy. 1850-WWI, states regularized national passports and their firm attachment of citizens to particular states (Torpey 2000). – In the process working agreements emerged among governments, capital, and organized labor at the national scale. – Those bargains eventually turned states from free trade toward protection of industries that combined large labor forces with extensive fixed capital e.g. chemicals, steel, and metal-processing industries. (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 199 The Washington Consensus During the 1980s and 1990s, major capitalist powers including the United States generally agreed on a set of reforms for developing economies that people called the “Washington Consensus.” It included these elements: • Fiscal discipline • Redirection of public expenditure toward education, health, and infrastructure investment • Broadening the tax base and cutting marginal tax rates • Market determined, positive, and moderate interest rates • Competitive exchange rates for national currencies • Trade liberalization, which involved replacement of protective tariffs by low, uniform tariffs • Openings to foreign direct investment • Privatization of state enterprises • Abolition of regulations impeding entry into national markets, restricting competition within them – with exceptions for protection of personal safety, the environment, consumers, and financial institutions • Legal security for property rights (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 200 The World Bank Changes Focus The World Bank, a powerful worldwide financial institution based in Washington D.C., issues an annual report on the world economy, with special emphasis on prospects for economic development. The Bank began organizing its annual report thematically in 1991. Titles of reports from 1991 to 2005 give an idea of the great lender’s changing preoccupations: • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 1991: 1992: 1993: 1994: 1995: 1996: 1997: 1998: 1999: 2000/2001: 2002: 2003: 2004: 2005: The Challenge of Development Development and the Environment Investing in Health Infrastructure for Development Workers in an Integrating World From Plan to Market The State in a Changing World Knowledge for Development Entering the 21st Century Attacking Poverty Building Institutions for Markets Sustainable Development in a Dynamic World Making Services Work for Poor People A Better Investment Climate for Everyone During the early years, annual reports centered on capital investment and return, with special attention to poor countries and post-socialist regimes. They moved dramatically away from the assumption that integration into world markets would more or less automatically promote capitalism and development toward the view that market capitalism required extensive institutional underpinnings, including property rights and the rule of law. The most recent two years show a further shift toward concern about poverty and equal opportunity. (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 201 Globalization Processes Monday April 23rd, 2007 Tilly and Castañeda (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 202 A Good Provider Is One Who Leaves “On June 25, 1980 (a date he would remember), a good-natured Filipino poolmaintenance man gathered his wife and five children for an upsetting ride to the Manila airport. At 36, Emmet Comodas had lived a hard life without growing hardened, which was a mixed blessing given the indignities of his poverty. Orphaned at 8, raised on the Manila streets where he hawked cigarettes, he had hustled a job at a government sports complex and held it for nearly two decades. On the spectrum of Filipino poverty, that alone marked him as a man of modest fortune. But a monthly salary of $50 did not keep his family fed.” So he migrated to Saudi Arabia (…) “Two years later, on Aug. 2, 1982 (another date he would remember), Emmet walked off the returning flight with chocolate for the kids, earrings for Tita and a bag of duty-free cigarettes, his loneliness abroad having made him a chain smoker. His 2-year-old son, Boyet, considered him a stranger and cried at his touch, though as Emmet later said, “I was too happy to be sad.” He gave himself a party, replaced the shanty’s rotted walls and put on a new roof. Then after three months at home, he left for Saudi Arabia again. And again. And again and again: by the time Emmet ended the cycle and came home for good, he had been gone for nearly two decades. Boyet was grown (DeParle 2007).” (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 203 A Good Provider… “Deprived of their father while sustained by his wages, the Comodas children spent their early lives studying Emmet’s example. Now they have copied it. All five of them, including Rowena, grew up to become overseas workers. Four are still working abroad. And the middle child, Rosalie — a nurse in Abu Dhabi — faces a parallel to her father’s life that she finds all too exact. She has an 18month-old back in the Philippines who views her as a stranger and resists her touch. What started as Emmet’s act of desperation has become his children’s way of life: leaving in order to live.” This quotes show the family aspects behind migration, and remittances. [Having recently gotten out of the hospital Chuck came to class and read part of this article the day after it was published in the Sunday NYT Magazine.] Source: De Parle, Jason. 2007. “A Good Provider Is One Who Leaves.” New York Times. April 22, 2007. Full text free at: http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9D04E7D6113FF931A15757C0 A9619C8B63&sec=&spon=&partner=permalink&exprod=permalink (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 204 Technological Determinism in Explaining Globalization (Proposed by technology enthusiasts such as Howard Rheingold) 1833 introduction of the telegraph 1876 introduction of the telephone 1895 Marconi’s demonstration of radio 1920s experimental television 1966 initiation of satellite communication 1977 first mobile telecommunications system (Saudi Arabia) 1978 first computer modem 1989 initial plan for World Wide Web 1995 public internet established in US 1996 Wireless Application Protocol (adapted from UNDP 2001: 33) (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 205 Country Internet Connections per 1,000 people 2003 New Zealand 788 Iceland 772 Sweden 756 Malta 750 Denmark 696 Korea, Rep. of 657 Australia 646 United States 630 Finland 629 United Kingdom 628 Canada 626 Netherlands 614 Source UNDP http://hdr.undp.org/hdr2006/statistics/indicators/124.html 206 (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) Mediated Mediation • “Most friends and relatives with whom we maintain socially close ties are not physically close. These ties are spread through metropolitan areas, and often on the other side of countries or seas. Mail, the telephone, cars, airplanes, and now email and the Internet sustain these ties. Most people do not live lives bound in one community. Instead, they maneuver through multiple specialized partial communities, giving limited commitment to each. Their life is “glocalized”: combining long-distance ties with continuing involvements in households, neighborhoods, and worksites” (Haythornthwaite & Wellman 2002: 32 in Tilly 2004:93). • Integration of communications innovations into existing social relations and practices extends projects that people already have under way • The use of technology, media and communications is mediated by social relations. (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 207 Commercial, Social and Political Circuits Circuits have: 1) a well-defined boundary with some control over transactions crossing the boundary, 2) a distinctive set of economic transactions, 3) distinctive media (reckoning systems and tokens of value) employed in the pursuit of those transactions, and 4) meaningful ties among participants Circuits create an institutional structure that reinforces credit, trust, and reciprocity within its perimeter, but organizes exclusion and inequality in relation to outsiders. (Zelizer 2004 in Nee & Swedberg, eds. The Economic Sociology of Capitalism). (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 208 Top Down Globalization Multinational corporations, International Financial Institutions (loans and conditionality packages), inter-government agreements (GATT-WTO), W.C., global media, copyright, internet protocols, and portals INGO’s, organized crime and terrorist networks Bottom Up Globalization Migration flows, world music, environmental and social movements, open source media, wikis, enduser media, alternative media, civil society cooperation across borders, international education (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 209 Tilly’s Predictions • Since top-down, bottom-up, and intermediate changes all increase connectedness among sites that share interests and, on the average, reduce the cost of communication, we might expect an increase in the frequency of campaigns involving similar or identical targets simultaneously at many different sites. • As for repertoires, we might expect decreasing reliance on expressions of program, identity, and standing claims that require the physical co-presence of all participants in favor of locally clustered performances connected by long, thin strands of communication. At the extreme, that trend would yield virtual performances requiring no physical co-presence whatsoever. • When it comes to WUNC displays, we might expect an interesting bifurcation: on one side, ways of signaling WUNC to the world; and on the other side, increasingly localized WUNC codes for their local environments. E.g. Indonesian demonstrators wearing locally intelligible headbands but holding English-language signs up to television cameras illustrate the bifurcation. • internationally-oriented performances combine codes linking participants closely to their own localities and groups with other WUNC codes of worldwide currency such as peace signs and chanting in unison. (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 210 Important distinctions • • • • Globalization as discourse vs. phenomena Anti-globalization as discourse and as action Global causes from global action Responses to structural adjustment vs. group claims and rights based claims Source: Tilly, Charles. 2004. Social Movements 1768-2004. Chapter 5. Boulder: CO. Paradigm Publishers. (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 211 the present and future of contentious politics Charles Tilly April 25th, 2007 (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 212 References Goodin, Robert E. and Charles Tilly. 2006. The Oxford handbook of contextual political analysis. Oxford: Oxford University Press. McAdam, Doug, Sidney G. Tarrow, and Charles Tilly. 2001. Dynamics of contention. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Tilly, Charles. 1998. Durable inequality. Berkeley: University of California Press. —. 2002. Stories, identities, and political change. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield. —. 2003. Contention and democracy in Europe, 1650-2000. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. —. 2003. The politics of collective violence. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. —. 2004. Social movements, 1768-2004. Boulder, CO: Paradigm Publishers. —. 2005. Identities, boundaries, and social ties. Boulder, CO: Paradigm Publishers. —. 2005. Popular contention in Great Britain, 1758-1834. Boulder ,CO: Paradigm Publishers. —. 2005. Trust and rule. New York: Cambridge University Press. —. 2006. Regimes and repertoires. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. —. 2006. Why? Princeton: Princeton University Press. —. 2007. Democracy. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. —. 2008. Contentious performances. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. —. 2008. Credit and blame. Princeton: Princeton University Press. —. 2008. Explaining social processes. Boulder, CO: Paradigm Publishers. Tilly, Charles and Sidney Tarrow. 2007. Contentious politics. Boulder, CO: Paradigm Publishers. (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 213 More on Professor Charles “Chuck” Tilly Books http://web.gc.cuny.edu/dept/bildn/courses/tillybooks.shtml Bio http://web.gc.cuny.edu/dept/bildn/courses/tillybio.shtml Conference in Honor of Tilly http://www.ssrc.org/hirschman/event/2008/agenda Castañeda on Tilly http://ernestoetc.blogspot.com/search/label/Charles%20Tilly More material at Davenport’s in Memoriam http://www.cdavenport.com/ (Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 214