Making Capital Investment Decisions Estimating Cash Flows Special cases Overview We are mainly concerned with how to arrive at correct measure of cash flows in numerator of NPV calculations What are relevant and irrelevant cash flows? We will also look at some special cases of Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methods Special Applications of DCF Evaluating Cost Cutting Proposals Evaluating Equipment with Different Lives We will ignore ‘setting bid price’ example in text Relevant Cash Flows Only INCREMENTAL after-tax cash flows are relevant: Incremental cash flows: Changes in cash flows with and without the project NOT the same as cash flows before and after the project!! Indentifying cash flows Look For: Changes in sales and operating costs Changes in net working capital Opportunity costs and capital spending Effect on tax payments Example Manufacturing operation that uses land that could be sold for $100,000 With project: (own and use land) Without project (sell land) Incremental CF (due to project) CF = $0 CF = +$100,000 = -$100,000 Do Not Include... Sunk Costs and unavoidable expenses Depreciation but include effect of depreciation on taxes Financing payments e.g. dividends and interest financing is captured in denominator ‘r’ Examples: Include/Ignore? Market value of land and existing buildings Costs of demolishing and clearing land Cost of new access road put in last year Lost earnings from other products due to managers’ time spent on the new plant Part of the cost of leasing the president’s airplane Future depreciation of the new plant Initial investment on inventories and raw materials Payments already made for engineering of the new plant Definitions of Operating CF OCF = operating cash flow S = sales C = operating costs D = depreciation EBIT = earnings before interest and taxes =S-C-D T = corporate tax rate OCF = EBIT + D - Taxes Example: S = $1,000 C = $600 D = $200 T = 34% EBIT = S - C - D = 1000-600-200 = $200 Taxes = EBIT x T = 200 x .34 = $68 OCF = EBIT + D - Taxes 200 + 200 - 68 = $332 Use alternative approaches to arrive at the same answer Alternative Definitions of OCF Bottoms-up approach OCF = N.I. (without interest expense) + D Top-down approach OCF = S - C - Taxes Tax-shield approach OCF = (S - C) x (1-T) + D x T Notice... In all the alternatives of computing cash flows, taxes must be taken into account Payment of taxes is a cash outflow Savings of taxes is a cash inflow Cash flows are computed on an after-tax basis Multiply by T or (1-T)? When you are calculating the amount of tax, you multiply by T When you are calculating the amount of tax savings due to an expense (such as depreciation expense or any other expense), you multiply by T When you are calculating the amount of aftertax cash flow, you multiply by (1-T) Example Before Tax CF: $1000 [= CF] Tax @ 40%: $400 [= CF x T] After Tax Income: $600 [= CF x (1-T)] Example Taking a project increases tax deductible expense by $1,000 How much savings in taxes does this result? T = 40% Answer: 1000 x .40 = $400 This is the amount by which the taxes are lower Depreciation Depreciation is a way accountants measure ‘wear and tear’ or ‘using-up’ of assets It does not reflect actual cash going out Depreciation is a tax-deductible expense Tax savings due to depreciation is (D x T) tax savings is a cash inflow tax savings is called depreciation tax shield Example: Depr. Tax Shield The Latte Stand project requires purchasing coffee equipment for $12,000 which will be depreciated on a straight-line basis over 4 years to zero book value. The tax rate is 38%. What is the annual depreciation? What are the cash flow consequences of depreciation? Note Equipment can be sold before it is fully depreciated The book value (BV) of the machine in any year is the original cost – accumulated depreciation Example. $1m machine is being depreciated straight line over 10 years to zero book value. What is its BV in year 6? Accelerated Depreciation IRS allows a quicker schedule of depreciation than straight-line depreciation This method is called Accelerated Depreciation Assets are categorized in different ‘classes’ e.g. “5-year class” Accelerated Depreciation $500,000 investment is depreciated over 4 years as 3-year MACRS to zero book value What is the annual depreciation? What is the annual depreciation tax shield? Salvage Value The latte equipment will be sold at the end of 4 years for $5,600. What are the cash flows resulting from salvage at the end of the project? Salvage Sale of equipment can result in Taxable gain if BV < MV OR Taxable loss if BV > MV OR Neither if BV = MV Gain Example Loss Example Book Value of Asset in year of sale (BV) Sale price of asset (MV) $10,000 $10,000 $15,000 $5,000 Gain (+)/Loss (-) on sale +$5000 -$5,000 Cash flow from tax paid/saved on gain/loss from sale -$2,000 +$2,000 Here, gain on sale Here, loss on sale to taxes being leads to taxes paid on the gain being saved (cash (cash outflow) inflow) Net Working Capital Net working capital (NWC) = S.T. Assets - S.T. Liabilities Businesses need NWC to conduct business NWC ties up money (i.e. it is an investment) What are S.T. Assets and Liabilities of a firm? Increase in NWC is cash outflow Decrease in NWC is cash inflow NWC ST Assets Cash Marketable securities Accounts Receivables Inventory ST Liabilities Accounts payable Wages due Taxes due NWC = ST Assets - ST Liabilities Example: NWC Without Project ($s) Acct Rec’v Inventories Acct Pay’b 4,500 6,000 3,900 With Project ($s) Acct Rec’v Inventories Acct Pay’b What is the change in NWC? What is the cash inflow / outflow? 6,700 9,000 3,400 NWC at Project End When projects have finite life, the money tied up in NWC becomes available when the project ends Hence, one typically encounters situations where a drop in NWC occurs at the end of project’s life This results in a cash inflow Application: Cost Cutting Buying a new machine press for $350,000 is estimated to result in $145,000 in annual pre-tax savings. MACRS five-year class depreciated to zero book value, and has sale price of $75,000. Also required spare parts of $17,000 and $2,500 in inventory for each succeeding year of the project. T = 34%, r = 15%. Buy new machine? Equivalent Annual Cost (EAC) Useful: when alternatives have different economic lives we will use and replace the equipment indefinitely Trick: Calculate NPV of alternatives Use NPV as PV of annuity to calculate PMT over the ‘n’ years of useful life EAC Example Filtration Precipitation Economic Life 5 years 8 years Installation Cost $1.1 mill $1.9 mill Annual Oper. Cost $60,000 $10,000 Salvage value $0 $0 Depreciable life 5 years 8 years Discount rate 12% 12% T = .34, Straight line depreciation Notice... The two alternative have different lives Cannot directly compare them We usually assume that the machines are replaced indefinitely at end of their lives Hence we convert NPV to Equivalent Annual Costs (EAC) EAC ex. continued.. Filtr. After tax oper. cost -$39,600 Depr. tax shield $74,800 Oper. Cash flow $35,200 PV of Oper. cash flow $126,888 Investment -$1,100,000 NPV @ 12% -$973,112 EAC Precip. -$6,600 $80,750 $74,150 $368,350 -$1,900,000 -$1,531,650