LED Retrofit Capabilities at MSU
(Revisited)
SPARTA | Fall 2014
SPARTA | Fall 2014
2
SPARTA | Fall 2014
3
SPARTA | Fall 2014
Current Lamp: F32T8
Calculate CCT (Measured)
Declare CCT (Manufacturer)
• CCT: 4100K
• CRI Average: 65
• CCT: 2800K
1
1
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.8
Normalized Spectra Intensity
Normalized Spectra Intensity
• CRI Average: 86
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
CCT Ref Black Body
Test Spectrum
0.1
0
350
0.7
400
450
500
550
600 650
Wavelength (nm)
700
750
800
CCT Ref Black Body
Test Spectrum
0.1
850
0
350
400
450
500
550 600 650
Wavelength (nm)
700
750
800
850
4
SPARTA | Fall 2014
Proposed Lamp: CREE LED
Calculate CCT (Measured)
Declare CCT (Manufacturer)
• CCT: 4000K
• CRI Average: 84
• CRI Average: 80
1
1
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.8
Normalized Spectra Intensity
Normalized Spectra Intensity
• CCT: 3400K
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
CCT Ref Black Body
Test Spectrum
0.1
0
350
0.7
400
450
500
550 600 650
Wavelength (nm)
700
750
800
CCT Ref Black Body
Test Spectrum
0.1
850
0
350
400
450
500
550 600 650
Wavelength (nm)
700
750
800
850
5
SPARTA | Fall 2014
Fixture Comparison
From 3 fluorescent bulbs to 2 LED bulbs
Equivalent lighting lux
F32T8 (104W Measured)
Fl.
LED
6
SPARTA | Fall 2014
Color Comparison
F32T8
CREE LED UR 2-48
7
SPARTA | Fall 2014
General Characteristic and CCT & CRI
Comparison
Lifetime (hours)
Warranty (years)
Replacement (years)
Capital Cost/Fixture
F32T8
UR 2-48
24,000
2.5-3
4
$6.51
50,000
7
10
$90-$140
Measure Spectra to Calculate CCT and CRI
CCT
CRI
F32T8
2800K
86
UR 2-48
3400K
84
Declare CCT to Calculate CRI
F32T8
4100K
65
UR 2-48
4000K
80
Manufacturer Specs
F32T8
4100K
78
UR 2-48
4000k
80
Note: The CRI determines how close the bulb is to the CCT
8
SPARTA | Fall 2014
Feasibility Per Fixture Comparison
Annual Energy Use (kWh)
Annual Energy Cost
($/year/fixture)
Installation Labor Rate Per Fixture
Replacement (years)
F32T8
UR 2-48
644
286
104
46
$2.30
4
$4.60
10
9
SPARTA | Fall 2014
Psychology Bldg. Lighting Study
Goal:
•
•
To develop a case study that demonstrates where, and in what
use cases, LED System retrofits make the strongest impact in
campus buildings
Use load data and other project information gathered to develop
an LED Investment Sensitivity Study with
10
SPARTA | Fall 2014
Psychology Bldg. Lighting Study
Project Scope:
• Currently monitoring 1st and 2nd floor hallway lighting for baseline load
• Retrofit 91 hallway fixtures with UR 2-48-48-45L-40K-S-FD kits at lowest quoted price
• Monitor post installation load to display impact
Installation Expenses
Materials
UR 2-48-48-45L-40K-S-FD
CREE LED (Shipping Not
Included)
Unit
Cost/Unit
Vol.
fixture
$90.12
91
$8,200.92
$23.96
91
$2,180.36
14.8%
-
$322.69
-
-
$10,703.97
Labor Expense
Installer/Electrician fixed hourly
% direct
Installation Overhead installation
Total
-
Total Expense
11
SPARTA | Fall 2014
LED Investment Sensitivity Study
Sensitivity Analysis:
• The study of how different sources of uncertainty in key inputs can lead to unexpected output
values in a model or system.
• Our model uses:
1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model pre-vetted by the DOE EERE to asses the expected
return of energy efficiency upgrades
2. AIC/BIC to measure goodness of fit for input variable distributions
3. Monte Carlo to run controlled simulations – iterations = 10,000 randomized samples/sim
Application to LED Investments:
•
Asses stress viability of LED retrofit investments in campus buildings across Key Simulation
Inputs using the Psychology Building Lighting Study scenario
12
SPARTA | Fall 2014
LED Investment Sensitivity Study
Key Simulation Inputs:
•
•
•
•
•
•
Installation Labor Time (mins)
UR 2-48 Pricing (USD)
Annual Utility Rate Escalation (Average, %)
Inflation Rate (Average, %)
Real Discount Rate (%)
Time Fixtures are on (Average, %)
Outputs Tested:
• Lifetime (10yr) Net Present Value (NPV, USD)
• Payback Time (PBT, yrs)
Baseline Model:
• Establishes NPV and PBT outputs in the Discounted Cash
Flow (DCF) model using a set of verified baseline inputs
• Used to benchmark simulations against
13
SPARTA | Fall 2014
LED Investment Sensitivity Study
Baseline Model:
•
Each Input value has a part in
developing the baseline DCF
model’s intermediate outputs,
PBT and NPV
Key Simulation Inputs for Baseline Model
Installation Labor Time (mins)
UR 2-48 Pricing (USD)
Annual Utility Rate Escalation (Average, %)
Inflation Rate (Average, %)
Real Discount Rate (%)
Time Fixtures are on (Average, %)
LED System Performance Gains:
• Expected Returns are provided by
finding the load reduction between
current system and the CREE LED
Retrofit at Psychology Bldg.
60
$90.12
1.44%
1.74%
3.50%
100%
Baseline Model Installation Expenses
Total Direct Cost
Total Indirect Cost
% of Direct Costs Sales Tax Applies
Total Installed Cost
$10,381
$323
100%
$11,327
Baseline Model LED System Performance Gains
Degradation (%/year)
Expected Returns (kW)
First Year Annual Savings (kWh)
1.00%
5.28
46,262
14
SPARTA | Fall 2014
LED Investment Sensitivity Study
Baseline Model Cumulative Payback Cash Flow
Intermediate Outputs for Baseline Model
Effective Tax Rate
0.00%
Credit Basis - Fed
$11,326.85
30
Credit Basis - State
$11,326.85
20
Nominal Discount Rate
5.30%
First Costs
$11,326.85
Adjusted Installed Costs
$11,326.85
NPV(Nominal,Costflow))
$0.00
NPV(Nominal,Output))
10
0
-10
338,066.30
NPV(Real,Output))
368,928.11
Payback Time (yrs)
2.94
-20
2014
2015 2016
2017 2018 2019
2020
2021 2022
2023
2024
2025
15
Thousands USD
40
SPARTA | Fall 2014
LED Investment Sensitivity Study
Simulation Process:
• Gather Data Sets for Simulation
Inputs
• Perform Distribution fits on
Simulation Inputs
• Assess distribution fits using Akaike
Information Criterion and Bayesian
Information Criterion
• Select Best Fitting Distribution for
each Simulation Input
• Parameterize the Simulation
• Perform simulation runs on each
individual input using Monte Carlo
analysis methodologies over an
iteration range of 10,000
randomized samples/sim
Snap-shot of a simulation run in the DCF model (The ‘Time Fixtures are on’ Input is currently running in this shot) 16
SPARTA | Fall 2014
LED Investment Sensitivity Study
Used to:
• Assess variation in Outputs
• Assess overall model sensitivity
• Assess investment viability given a significant degree of simulated uncertainty in the inputs
Simulation Input Reference Table
Percentile
Installation Labor
Time (mins)
UR 2-48
Pricing (USD)
Annual Utility Rate Escalation
(Average, %)
Inflation Rate
(Average, %)
Real Discount Rate
(%)
Time Fixtures are on
(Average, %)
1%
0.6
$90.19
-3.4%
-14.0%
2.7%
11.7%
5%
3.7
$90.44
-2.4%
-8.4%
3.1%
18.0%
15%
11.1
$91.12
-1.5%
-2.7%
3.8%
27.9%
25%
18.9
$91.92
-1.0%
-0.5%
4.5%
35.6%
35%
27.0
$92.86
-0.6%
0.7%
5.2%
42.4%
45%
35.5
$94.00
-0.2%
1.8%
5.9%
48.2%
50%
40.1
$94.77
0.0%
2.3%
6.3%
51.1%
65%
55.4
$97.48
0.5%
3.8%
7.5%
59.6%
75%
60
$100.31
1.0%
5.1%
8.5%
66.4%
85%
60
$105.11
1.5%
7.2%
10.0%
74.3%
95%
60
$117.21
2.3%
12.7%
12.4%
87.2%
99%
60
$141.31
3.4%
18.4%
15.3%
96.2%
Note: Simulation Input percentiles are to be paired with the Output percentiles and Spider Plots
17
SPARTA | Fall 2014
LED Investment Sensitivity Study
Payback Time Output - Payback Time (yrs)
Percentile Baseline
Installation Labor
UR 2-48
Time (mins)
Pricing (USD)
Annual Utility Rate Escalation
(Average, %)
Inflation Rate
(Average, %)
Real Discount Rate
(%)
Time Fixtures are on
(Average, %)
1%
2.94
2.26
2.94
2.89
2.94
2.94
10
5%
2.94
2.30
2.95
2.91
2.94
2.94
10
15%
2.94
2.34
2.96
2.94
2.94
2.94
10
25%
2.94
2.47
2.98
2.95
2.94
2.94
8.17
35%
2.94
2.56
3.01
2.96
2.94
2.94
6.88
45%
2.94
2.66
3.03
2.97
2.94
2.94
5.71
50%
2.94
2.71
3.05
2.98
2.94
2.94
5.42
65%
2.94
2.89
3.12
3.00
2.94
2.94
4.91
75%
2.94
2.94
3.19
3.01
2.94
2.94
4.41
85%
2.94
2.94
3.31
3.03
2.94
2.94
3.94
95%
2.94
2.94
3.61
3.06
2.94
2.94
3.37
99%
2.94
2.94
4.21
3.09
2.94
2.94
3.05
Note: Simulation Input percentiles are to be paired with the Output percentiles and Spider
Plots
18
SPARTA | Fall 2014
LED Investment Sensitivity Study
Spider Plot for Payback Time (yrs)
Baseline
Installation Labor Time (mins)
UR2 Pricing (usd)
Annual Utility Rate Escalation (Average, %)
Inflation Rate (Average, %)
Real Discount Rate (%)
Time Fixtures are on (Average, %)
12.00
10.00
PBT (yrs)
8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
Percentile
0.00
1%
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
50%
65%
75%
85%
95%
99%
Baseline
2.94
2.94
2.94
2.94
2.94
2.94
2.94
2.94
2.94
2.94
2.94
2.94
Installation Labor Time (mins)
2.26
2.30
2.34
2.47
2.56
2.66
2.71
2.89
2.94
2.94
2.94
2.94
UR2 Pricing (usd)
2.94
2.95
2.96
2.98
3.01
3.03
3.05
3.12
3.19
3.31
3.61
4.21
Annual Utility Rate Escalation (Average, %)
2.89
2.91
2.94
2.95
2.96
2.97
2.98
3.00
3.01
3.03
3.06
3.09
Inflation Rate (Average, %)
2.94
2.94
2.94
2.94
2.94
2.94
2.94
2.94
2.94
2.94
2.94
2.94
Real Discount Rate (%)
2.94
2.94
2.94
2.94
2.94
2.94
2.94
2.94
2.94
2.94
2.94
2.94
10
10
10
8.17
6.88
5.71
5.42
4.91
4.41
3.94
3.37
3.05
Time Fixtures are on (Average, %)
19
SPARTA | Fall 2014
LED Investment Sensitivity Study
Net Present Value Output - Lifetime NPV(USD)
Percentile Baseline
Installation Labor
Time (mins)
UR 2-48
Pricing (USD)
Annual Utility Rate Escalation
(Average, %)
Inflation Rate
(Average, %)
Real Discount Rate
(%)
Time Fixtures are on
(Average, %)
1%
$18,406
$18,406
$13,468
$13,246
$67,548
$19,585
-$7,853
5%
$18,406
$18,406
$15,793
$14,202
$41,888
$19,042
-$5,966
15%
$18,406
$18,406
$16,960
$15,090
$26,355
$17,931
-$3,034
25%
$18,406
$18,406
$17,424
$15,630
$22,086
$16,981
-$753
35%
$18,406
$18,606
$17,697
$16,105
$19,956
$16,036
$1,269
45%
$18,406
$19,079
$17,888
$16,518
$17,632
$14,699
$3,005
50%
$18,406
$19,281
$17,958
$16,722
$16,959
$14,224
$3,866
65%
$18,406
$19,856
$18,142
$17,316
$15,561
$13,291
$6,391
75%
$18,406
$20,211
$18,233
$17,824
$13,938
$12,200
$8,411
85%
$18,406
$20,553
$18,310
$18,448
$11,644
$10,824
$10,776
95%
$18,406
$20,879
$18,375
$19,484
$7,043
$8,731
$14,590
99%
$18,406
$21,012
$18,399
$20,828
$3,682
$6,595
$17,285
Note: Simulation Input percentiles are to be paired with the Output percentiles and Spider
Plots
20
SPARTA | Fall 2014
LED Investment Sensitivity Study
Spider Plot for NPV (USD)
Baseline
Installation Labor Time (mins)
UR2 Pricing (usd)
Annual Utility Rate Escalation (Average, %)
Inflation Rate (Average, %)
Real Discount Rate (%)
Time Fixtures are on (Average, %)
$80,000
$70,000
$60,000
$50,000
Lifetime NPV (USD)
$40,000
$30,000
$20,000
$10,000
$0
Percentile
-$10,000
-$20,000
1%
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
50%
65%
75%
85%
95%
99%
Baseline
$18,406
$18,406
$18,406
$18,406
$18,406
$18,406
$18,406
$18,406
$18,406
$18,406
$18,406
$18,406
Installation Labor Time (mins)
$18,406
$18,406
$18,406
$18,406
$18,606
$19,079
$19,281
$19,856
$20,211
$20,553
$20,879
$21,012
UR2 Pricing (usd)
$13,468
$15,793
$16,960
$17,424
$17,697
$17,888
$17,958
$18,142
$18,233
$18,310
$18,375
$18,399
Annual Utility Rate Escalation (Average, %)
$13,246
$14,202
$15,090
$15,630
$16,105
$16,518
$16,722
$17,316
$17,824
$18,448
$19,484
$20,828
Inflation Rate (Average, %)
$67,548
$41,888
$26,355
$22,086
$19,956
$17,632
$16,959
$15,561
$13,938
$11,644
$7,043
$3,682
Real Discount Rate (%)
$19,585
$19,042
$17,931
$16,981
$16,036
$14,699
$14,224
$13,291
$12,200
$10,824
$8,731
$6,595
Time Fixtures are on (Average, %)
-$7,853
-$5,966
-$3,034
-$753
$1,269
$3,005
$3,866
$6,391
$8,411
$10,776
$14,590
$17,285
21
SPARTA | Fall 2014
LED Investment Sensitivity Study
What does all of this mean:
• For Payback Time (PBT):
• Despite a large range of variation in Simulation
Inputs there is little deviation away from the
Baseline Model Outputs - when excluding
‘Time Fixtures are on’
Range of Simulation Inputs (MAX–MIN)
Installation Labor Time (mins)
UR 2-48 Pricing (USD)
Annual Utility Rate Escalation (Average, %)
Inflation Rate (Average, %)
Real Discount Rate (%)
Time Fixtures are on (Average, %)
59
$51.12
7%
32%
13%
85%
Average Deviation from Baseline (%) - PBT
• This tells us that with even rather extreme
Installation Labor Time (mins)
-9%
amounts of uncertainty over vital Model Inputs UR 2-48 Pricing (USD)
9%
the Investment in LED systems remains at most,
1%
an on Average 9% above our Baseline Model’s PBT Annual Utility Rate Escalation (Average, %)
Inflation Rate (Average, %)
0%
of 2.94yrs or otherwise 3.20yrs - when
excluding ‘Time Fixtures are on’
Real Discount Rate (%)
Time Fixtures are on (Average, %)
0%
115%
22
SPARTA | Fall 2014
LED Investment Sensitivity Study
Payback Time
Output Deviations - from Baseline Model to Simulation
(%)
-9%
300%
130%
Avg. Deviaton from Baseline,
Time Fixtures are on
115%
Deviation from Baseline /percentile (%)
250%
110%
Avg. Deviaton from Baseline,Annual Utility Rate
Escalation
1%
200%
90%
150%
70%
Avg. Deviaton from Baseline,
Real Discount Rate
0%
100%
50%
50%
30%
Percentile
0%
10%
1%
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
50%
Avg. Deviaton from Baseline,
UR 2-48 Pricing
9%
-50%
65%
75%
85%
95%
99%
Avg. Deviaton from Baseline,
Inflation Rate
0%
Installation Labor Time (mins)
UR2 Pricing (usd)
Annual Utility Rate Escalation (Average, %)
Real Discount Rate (%)
Time Fixtures are on (Average, %)
Baseline
Inflation Rate (Average, %)
-10%
23
Average Deviation from Baseline (%)
Avg. Deviaton from Baseline,
Installation Labor Time
SPARTA | Fall 2014
LED Investment Sensitivity Study
What does all of this mean:
• For Net Present Value (NPV):
•
Range of Simulation Inputs (MAX–MIN)
Installation Labor Time (mins)
UR 2-48 Pricing (USD)
Annual Utility Rate Escalation (Average, %)
Like the PBT outputs - a large range of variation
Inflation Rate (Average, %)
in Simulation Inputs seems to show little in terms
Real Discount Rate (%)
of deviations away from the Baseline Model
Time Fixtures are on (Average, %)
Outputs - when excluding ‘Time Fixtures
are on’
• Again, this tells us that with even rather extreme
amounts of uncertainty over vital Model Inputs the Investment in LED systems remains, on
Average, 2.4% below our Baseline Model’s
Lifetime NPV of $18,406 at $17,960 - when
excluding ‘Time Fixtures are on’
59
$51.12
7%
32%
13%
85%
Average Deviation from Baseline (%) - NPV
Installation Labor Time (mins)
UR 2-48 Pricing (USD)
Annual Utility Rate Escalation (Average, %)
Inflation Rate (Average, %)
Real Discount Rate (%)
Time Fixtures are on (Average, %)
6%
-6%
-9%
20%
-23%
-78%
24
SPARTA | Fall 2014
LED Investment Sensitivity Study
NPV
Output Deviations - from Baseline Model to Simulation
(%)
250%
Avg. Deviaton from Baseline,
Installation Labor Time
6%
Deviation from Baseline /percentile (%)
200%
40%
Avg. Deviaton from Baseline,
Inflation Rate
20%
Avg. Deviaton from Baseline,
UR 2-48 Pricing
-6%
20%
0%
150%
Avg. Deviaton from Baseline,
Real Discount Rate
-23%
100%
Avg. Deviaton from Baseline,Annual Utility Rate
Escalation
-9%
50%
-20%
-40%
0%
1%
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
50%
65%
75%
85%
95%
99%
-50%
-60%
-100%
Percentile
-80%
Avg. Deviaton from Baseline,
Time Fixtures are on
-78%
-150%
-200%
-100%
Installation Labor Time (mins)
UR2 Pricing (usd)
Annual Utility Rate Escalation (Average, %)
Real Discount Rate (%)
Time Fixtures are on (Average, %)
Baseline
Inflation Rate (Average, %)
25
Average Deviation from Baseline (%)
300%
SPARTA | Fall 2014
LED Investment Sensitivity Study
Psychology Bldg. Lighting Study:
• Monitoring 1st and 2nd floor hallway lighting for baseline load at 5min
logging increments
• Lights in the hallway have been on 100% of the time
350
350
300
300
250
250
200
200
150
150
100
100
50
50
0
0
1
433
865
1297
1729
2161
2593
3025
3457
3889
4321
4753
5185
5617
6049
6481
6913
7345
7777
8209
8641
9073
9505
9937
10369
10801
11233
11665
12097
12529
12961
13393
Second Floor Monitored Lights
1
513
1025
1537
2049
2561
3073
3585
4097
4609
5121
5633
6145
6657
7169
7681
8193
8705
9217
9729
10241
10753
11265
11777
12289
12801
13313
Energy Consumption (Wh/min)
First Floor Monitored Lights
Minutes
26
SPARTA | Fall 2014
LED Investment Sensitivity Study
Significant Findings (Holding all other inputs constant at Baseline):
Avg. Energy
Use Reduction
of 55% per
Fixture over
Fluorescent
Tubes
Use ≥
51% ON
PBT≤
5yrs
Use ≥
90% ON
PBT≤
3.5yrs
27
SPARTA | Fall 2014
LED Investment Sensitivity Study
Significant Findings (Holding all other inputs constant at Baseline):
Time Fixtures are on (Average, %)
PBT (yrs)
48.2%
51.1%
59.6%
66.4%
74.3%
87.2%
96.2%
5.71
5.42
4.91
4.41
3.94
3.37
3.05
28
SPARTA | Fall 2014
LED Investment Sensitivity Study
Significant Findings (Holding all other inputs constant at Baseline):
Avg. Energy
Use Reduction
of 55% per
Fixture over
Fluorescent
Tubes
Use ≥
51% ON
NPV >
$42/fixture
Use ≥
90% ON
NPV >
$169/fixture
29
SPARTA | Fall 2014
LED Investment Sensitivity Study
Significant Findings (Holding all inputs constant at Baseline):
Time Fixtures are on (Average, %)
Per-Fixture Lifetime NPV
(USD)
48.20%
51.10%
59.60%
66.40%
74.30%
87.20%
96.20%
$33.02
$42.48
$70.23
$92.43
$118.42
$160.33
$189.95
30