Crime Science
Marianne Junger
[Cla09] R. V. Clarke. Crime science. In E. McLaughlin and T. Newburn, editors, Handbook of
Criminal Theory, pages 271-283. Sage, London, 2009.
http://www.sagepub.com/books/Book228876
Contents
 Origins of crime
 Theories of Crime Science
 Situational Crime Prevention
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Cyber-crime Science
Origins of crime
Two essential and different factors
1. Person factors (criminality)
2. Situations - context (crime)
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Cyber-crime Science
Person factors
Crime is ‘natural behaviour’
 Everybody has the potential
 Some more than others…
 How can we know?
 Indirect evidence:
– observe animals
– observe babies
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Cyber-crime Science
Physical Aggression of Toddlers
Dutch Toddlers (17 months),
in %
Sometimes
Often
Sum
Take things
65,8
20,5
86,3
Pulls others
56,4
6
62,4
Pushes to get what he wants
45,3
10,3
55,6
Hits others
42,7
3,4
46,1
Start fights
24,8
1,7
26,5
Threatens others
22,2
3,4
25,6
Bites
14,5
3,4
17,9
Kicks
2,6
0
2,6
Sum
94
[Ake07] C. van Aken, M. Junger, M. Verhoeven, M. A. G. van Aken, and M. Dekovic.
Externalizing behaviors and minor unintentional injuries in toddlers: Common risk factors?
Journal of Pediatric Psychology, 32(2):230-244, Mar 2007.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/jpepsy/jsj118
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Cyber-crime Science
Malleability of behaviour is limited
– see effectiveness of experiments
[Hec06] J. J. Heckman. Skill formation and the economics of investing in disadvantaged
children. Science, 312(5782):1900-1902, 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/428598a
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Cyber-crime Science
Theories of crime science
[Cla09] R. V. Clarke. Crime science. In E. McLaughlin and T. Newburn, editors,
Handbook of Criminal Theory, pages 271-283. Sage, London, 2009.
http://www.sagepub.com/books/Book228876
Cyber-crime
Science
9
Crime science- summary
 Incident oriented & specific
 Purpose: understand the modus operandi
of crime
 Goal: prevention
 Basis: Rational choice, Opportunity
theory & Routine Activities
 Means: Situational crime prevention
 Practice: Measure effectiveness and
efficiency of preventive interventions
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Cyber-crime Science
Crime Opp. Every day life Society
Theoretical foundation
11
 Routine Activity Approach (RAT)
» crime occurs when a potential offender meets with a
suitable target in the absence of a capable guardian.
 Crime Pattern theory
» crime is concentrated at particular places (hot spots),
targets the same victims repeatedly, (repeat
victimisation), and selects hot products.
 Rational choice perspective
» criminals make a bounded rational choice judging
risks and benefits.
Cyber-crime Science
Rational choice perspective
 Criminality is goal oriented behaviour
 Based on a rational decision
 Crime specific
 Crime scripts
 Violence & political crime, also ‘goal
oriented’
 In sociology, psychology, economy,
biology, public health etc
[Cor08] D. B. Cornish and R. V. Clarke. The rational choice perspective. In R. Wortley and L.
Mazerolle, editors, Environmental Criminology and Crime Analysis, pages 21-47. Willan
Publishing, Uffculme, UK, 2008. http://www.willanpublishing.co.uk/cgibin/indexer?product=9781843922803
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Cyber-crime Science
RAT - Opportunity theory
 Crime is the outcome of the interaction
between dispositions and situations
 Crime is the product of choice
 Crime specific focus essential for
effective prevention
 Crime is heavily concentrated
 Crime can be reduced by environmental
changes
[Fel98] M. Felson and R. V. Clarke. Opportunity makes the thief: Practical theory for crime
prevention. Police Research Series Paper 98, Home Office, Policing and Reducing Crime Unit,
London, 1998. http://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/prgpdfs/fprs98.pdf
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Cyber-crime Science
Crime triangle
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Cyber-crime Science
Development of registered
crime 1960-1995, Netherlands
Bron: Engelhard, b. J. M., Huls, f. W. M., Meijer, r. F., & Panhuis, p. V. (2001). Criminaliteit en
opsporing. In f. W. M. Huls, m. M. Schreuders, m. H. Ter horst & f. P. Van tulder (eds.),
Criminaliteit en rechtshandhaving 2000. Ontwikkelingen en samenhangen (pp. 43-82). Den
15
Haag,
nl.: Boom,
WODC,
Ministerie
van Justitie, CBS.
Introduction
to Crime
Science Class
3
10/03/2016
15
Wealth paradox
 Wealth presents opportunity
» More to steal in houses
» Less surveillance
 More wealth hence more crime
[Coh79] L. E. Cohen and M. Felson. Social change and crime rate trends: A routine activity
approach. American Sociological Review, 44(4):588-608, Aug 1979.
http://www.jstor.org/pss/2094589
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Cyber-crime Science
Situational approach
 Used in many disciplines/fields
» Economy
» Social psychology, e.g., marketing
» Traffic
» Public health
 price elasticity of tobacco and alcohol use
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Cyber-crime Science
Opportunity correlates
[Pea04] H. Pearson. Public health: The demon drink. Nature, 428:598-600, Apr 2004.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/428598a
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Cyber-crime Science
Situational crime prevention
[Cla08] R. V. Clarke. Situational crime prevention. In R. Wortley and L. Mazerolle, editors,
Environmental Criminology and Crime Analysis, pages 178-194. Willan Publishing, London,
Jun 2008. http://www.routledge.com/9781843922803
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Situational crime prevention
 Based on the theories of Crime Science
 A standard methodology based on
experiments and action research.
 A set of opportunity-reducing techniques.
 A body of evaluated practice including
studies of displacement.
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Cyber-crime Science
Experiments and action Research
1. collection of
data about the
nature of
problem
2. analysis of the
situational
conditions
3. systematic
study of means
of blocking
opportunities
4.
implementation
of the most
promising means
5. monitoring of
results and
dissemination of
experience.
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Cyber-crime Science
4
2,3
1
[Lay04] G. Laycock. The UK car theft index: An example of
government leverage. In Understanding and Preventing Car Theft,
Crime Prevention Studies 17, pages 25-44. Criminal Justice Press,
Monsey, New York, 2004
5
Opportunity reducing
techniques
 Increase effort
» Time, skills
 Increase risks
» Of getting caught, failure, loosing resources
 Reduce rewards
» So that the offender has less benefits after the crime
 Reduce provocation
» So that the offender is less tempted to start
 Remove excuses
» So that the offender cannot justify the crime
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Cyber-crime Science
Practical examples
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Cyber-crime Science
Increase effort: alley gating
[Bow04a] K. J. Bowers, S. D. Johnson, and A. F. G. Hirschfield. Closing off opportunities for crime:
An evaluation of Alley-Gating. European J. on Criminal Policy and Research, 10(4):285-308, Sep
2004. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10610-005-5502-0
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Cyber-crime Science
Increase risks: surveillance:
deterrence theorie
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Cyber-crime Science
Reduce rewards: RFID tags
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Cyber-crime Science
Reduce provocations: Flyers
1. Alley, flyer on bicycle
2a. Stealing Euro: graffiti,
no litter on ground
2b. Stealing Euro 5: no
graffiti, litter on ground
Order
Disorder:
graffiti
33%
69%
27%
13%
25%
[Kei08] K. Keizer, S. Lindenberg, and L. Steg. The spreading of disorder. Science,
322(5908):1681-1685, Dec 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1161405
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Cyber-crime Science
Remove excuses: Eyes
Pounds paid per
litre of milk consumed
as a function of
week and image type.
[Bat06] M. Bateson, D. Nettle, and G. Roberts. Cues of being watched enhance cooperation in
a real-world setting. Biology Letters, 2(3):412-414, Sep 2006.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2006.0509
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Cyber-crime Science
http://www.popcenter.org/25techniques/
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Cyber-crime Science
Displacement?
 Most important issue!
 Detoxification of gas in UK households
[Cla88b] R. V. Clarke and P. Mayhew. The British gas suicide story and its criminological
implications. Crime and Justice, 10:79-116, 1988. http://www.jstor.org/stable/1147403
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Cyber-crime Science
Displacement?
 Detoxification of gas in UK households
6,000
5,000
Suicide
4,000
3,000
All Methods
2,000
By Gas
1,000
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76
19
74
19
72
19
70
19
68
19
66
19
64
19
62
19
60
19
58
0
Year
[Cla88b] R. V. Clarke and P. Mayhew. The British gas suicide story and its criminological
implications. Crime and Justice, 10:79-116, 1988. http://www.jstor.org/stable/1147403
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Cyber-crime Science
Diffusion of benefits
 Diffusion of benefits:
 Examples
» Alley gating…
» Tagging of expensive electronic products in shops
 Meta-analysis*
» 25% diffusion of benefits,
» 50% nothing at all
» 25% displacement – never complete
[Gue09] R. T. Guerette and K. J. Bowers. Assessing the extent of crime displacement and
diffusion of benefits: a review of situational crime prevention evaluations. Criminology,
47(4):1331-1368, Nov 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1745-9125.2009.00177.x.
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Cyber-crime Science
Discussion
 This was ‘normal’ crime….
 See for a large collection of examples
http://www.popcenter.org/
 What about cyber opportunities?
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Cyber-crime Science
Conclusions
 Origins of crime: interaction “person by
situation”
 Importance of situations: wealth, alcohol
 Theories of crime science: RA, RCM,
opportunities
» A standard methodology: experiments/policies.
» A set of opportunity-reducing techniques: this helps!
» A body of evaluated practice including studies of
displacement.
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Cyber-crime Science