May 23, 2013
Waiting Around the Bend
Dan McCormick
CEO McCormick Group
What’s All This About and Why
Should I Care

“We know something's happening, and we're beginning to sense what it
is. We're speeding up; our technology is speeding up; our arts and
entertainment and the pace of invention and change -- it's all speeding up.
And we care. If we don't understand time, we become its victims.”

---from Faster: The Acceleration of Just About
Everything by James Gleick
3 Books To Read


Present Shock

Douglas Rushkoff
With Charity for All


Ken Sterns
Faster, the Acceleration of just about everything

James Gleick
The Game Has Changed

YouTube has 800 million distinct views of content each day

Target can predict when its customers are pregnant and nearing the birth of a baby
based on the products they purchases

Google can predict the incidence of flu weeks before the Center of Disease
Control knows there’s a problem by analyzing search words

There are 400 million tweets per day on Twitter

Facebook reports its 1B + users hits the like button and or leaves a comment 3
Billion times a day
Cell Phones Alone
 83% of all Americans have cell phone
 36% of households are wireless only (no landline)
 73% send and received texts - Teens send 60 text per day
 More than 2 trillion SMS were sent in the US in 2012 – 6 billion
per day

December 2012 CTIA facts
Our Lives Have Changed

Camera Film
Photos

Music CD’s
VCR and Video Tapes

Writing Letters
Bookstores

Travel Agents
Printed Maps

Classified Ads in Newspapers
Dial Up Internet Access

Yellow Pages and Address Books
Encyclopedias

Fax Machines
Pay Phones
Online Shopping

39% of adults with household incomes of at least $75K shopped at Ebay in the
last 12 months.

69% of US adults shopped at Amazon.com over the past 12 months as opposed to
55% for Walmart, 49% for Target

80% of all auto purchases are initiated online

eBay and Amazon account for 70% of the mobile commerce market place.

Apple ITunes sold 25 Billion tracks in 8 years (28% of all music sales)

SOURCE
– Factbrowser.com
Our Business is Changing Too

The Salvation Army has set up a system where people in Columbus,
Ohio, can text the word "kettle" to the organization, and the phone carrier
adds $5 to the texter's phone bill

American Cancer Society is posting peoples' stories through photos and
videos to demonstrate passion for their cause. sharinghope.tv.

Just having a click through for a credit card gift on your wed site is not
nearly enough in today's competitive environment
It Really Started in Haiti

Total giving to the Haiti earthquake tragedy in the US was $1.4 billion

Before the earthquake in Haiti, total giving via texting stood at just $1
million.

A few months after the earthquake, donors had given more than $50 million
via texting to support Haiti relief efforts. (source Charity Navigator)

Haiti telethon first round raised $35 million
Why Does This Matter

It creates an expectation that you can give quickly, safely and easily

Giving, even $5 on a text message gives the donor a sense of helping and
satisfies any guilt and or feeling of a need to give

It makes saying “I have already given” not only easier but true
What Do The Names Below Have in
Common?

Network for Good.org
Razoo.com
Firespring.org
JustGive.org
Charity Navigator
Virgin Money Giving
Donation To
Charity Watch
Secure Give
Ever Ribbon
Funds for Your Life
Simple Give
eTransfer
Causes

What About the Competition

You can set up a new charitable organization and begin raising money instantly

Over the last two decades the charitable sector has grown by more than 155% far
outstripping all other

According to a Stanford University Study the IRS approves more than 99.5 percent
of all charitable applications
There’s a Dark Side

Following Hurricane Katrina, the FBI estimated that 2400 fake charity Web sites
were set up

More than 59,000 charities with the word “Veteran” in their Name – many
unscrupulous or complete shams

U.S. Navy Veterans Association (USNVA) founded in 2002 raised more than $100
Million in donations. Less than 1% went to veterans.
Why Does This Matter

The competition is strong and immediate

The process is much quicker to the market place and catches attention

There is a growing expectation of availability to contribute that way

Its cheap and easy

The money raised is not new money its part of the whole philanthropic pie
Online Giving Snapshot

The total number of groups raising money online grew 20% from 2011 to 2012
(88,400 – 106,000)

Average online gift $77

More people give online on Monday and Tuesday but gifts on Thursday and
Friday are larger by over $15 per gift

http://philanthropy.com/article/Online-Giving-Grew-Rapidly-in/135992/
Its Not the Technology
it’s the Behavior

It’s the fact that people are changing the way they live, work and give and
its changing faster than ever before

As online giving becomes more available the numbers will continue to rise
– currently double digit increases each year
Here and Now

There are a lot of change agents out there now

Some will impact our organization significantly

They tend to happen faster than one might think

We need to help our organization become agile at adaption

We need to develop systems and processes that will help us be better positioned
“Everything is Fine”

This is the NPO mantra…..we fool ourselves in thinking that all is well

We tend to downplay downturns

We have an expectation that tried and true methods that were successful in years
past will once again somehow, magically work

We have a tendency to “spin” out data and current situation rather than face the
fact that we are in a dramatic decline
Look at Us

UWW does an annual survey on community perception of our Local
United Ways – less than 5% of UWs subscribe to the data

Even when UWW offers a process on how to get the data and survey
done free, local UWs do not get and use the data
Amara’s Law

“We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and
underestimate the effect in the long run.” – Roy Amara was a researcher, scientist and past
president of the Institute for the Future

“We tend to underestimate the impact of downtrend and overestimate the impact
of up trends”
What Should We Do?

Recognize trends and technologies that will impact us earlier

Become “pre-active”….”pro-active” is not fast enough and “reactive” is
way too late

Morph our organization agile entities with the capacity to respond
quickly and have resilience through change
What Can We Begin To Do

First – do a real and truthful assessment of our current state

Look at trends from the last 2 to 5 years

Believe the results

Look for aberrations that may make the trend line average either worse or
better and discount that number

Don’t do it alone
Create a Committee of Futurists

Develop a standing committee of staff and volunteers

Charged with looking at existing and coming trends, technologies and
topics

Look outside of your current board

Forward thinkers

Entrepreneurs

Local technology gurus

University research types

Communications and media people and marketing experts

People that think about the future
Futurist Committee

8 to 10 people is plenty

Meet 2 to 4 times a year for a few hours

Establish an agenda that helps them focus on your mission, operations and
functions in light of what they know, thinking and believe about the near term
future

Don’t expect them to problem solve, just enlighten us about what’s coming around
the bend
Tomorrows Matrix

Develop a “matrix” of interaction of current trends and technologies and
their impact upon mission and functions

This is a low tech way of vetting new ideas and technologies that are here
or on the way and determining the following:

Is it going to impact us?

If so how?

When can we expect to feel the impact?

How much is is going to cost to position and get ready for it?
Trend Matrix
Using New Components

Its not enough to say you have Facebook, Twitter etc. The real issue is what is
your plan for its use

Nicholas Sparks – Author of the Notebook and 16 other NYT best sellers and 9
movies

Use of Facebook

1.6M Likes

Promotes his books and book signings and events

Sells books

Raises money for his charitable interest

Helps his fans feel closer to him and his family
The Agile Organization

What we are really learning is that the change agents are coming at us
faster and faster.

If we are going to have a chance we must help our organizations develop
the ability to change…quickly and often
Easier Said Than Done

Create a “culture” of adapting to change

Breakdown legacy habits

Foster an organizational expectation of agility

Educate our board of directors of the critical need to be more agile

“It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent that
survives. It is the one that is the most adaptable to change.” Charles Darwin
Characteristics of an Agile Organization
 The Volunteer Leadership has confidence in their CEO
 The CEO has the confidence and trust of his or her senior
leadership
 The CEO and the Volunteer Leadership share the same vision
 The organization is not surprised by incremental and significant
strategic and tactical changes
 Innovation is “ALWAYS” mission driven
 Risk vs. Reward makes sense
Becoming more Agile

There is no personal or political penalty for being innovative

Staff, at all levels, do not fear change or jump to the conclusion that all
change is bad
Organizational Life Cycles

Enthusiastic entrepreneurial start up

Growing, strengthening and envisioning possibilities

Maturing into sustainability and well being

Declining from lack of innovation and relevance
Organizational Life Cycle
Turnaround
Sustaining
Stagnate
Complacent
Maturing
Decline
Success
Growth
Dissolution
Start
Up
Time
It Takes Capacity
 Smaller organization and those that are at the plateau and
beginning decline are usually heavily committed in human and
financial resources
 Hard to find the time to reconfigure the organization because of
the pressures of daily functionality and staying afloat
 Financial capacity and human resources are limited
 Stability of current mission support with options to grow becomes
a rare commodity
Building Capacity

Collaboration

Consolidation of some or all of your business functions

Sharing services and innovation

Merging with like minded organization

“Larger does not mean loss of local!”
Organizational Choices

Stay the course and live out your trend lines

Seek ways to reinvent your organization and hope it works

Become more open and more adaptive resulting in more agility and ready
for change

Actively grow capacity quickly through collaboration, consolidation, joint
ventures and mergers with sister organizations
Constant and Relentless

We tend to exist in a distracted present, where forces on the periphery are
magnified and those immediately before us are ignored. Our ability to create a
plan – much less follow through on it – is undermined by our need to be able to
improvise our way through any number of external impacts that stand to derail us
at any moment. Douglass Russkoff – “Present Shock” 2013