Coping and mental health Running head: COPING AND MENTAL HEALTH Differing Effects of Coping Strategies on Mental Health during Prolonged Unemployment: A Longitudinal Analysis 1 Coping and mental health 2 Abstract A three-wave longitudinal design was used to examine the causal effects of two coping strategies in the context of prolonged unemployment, namely job search and distancing (i.e., emotional detachment from unemployment), on mental health and the duration of these effects. Two situational appraisals, namely economic hardship and unemployment negativity (i.e., perceived negativity of unemployment life) were found to influence both coping strategies and mental health. We confirmed that the negative effect of job search on mental health was primarily due to the two situational appraisals, especially unemployment negativity. In contrast, the positive effect of distancing on mental health was significant, even after the situational appraisals were taken into account. In addition, the positive effect of distancing on mental health lasted longer than the negative effect of job search. Coping and mental health 39 Differing Effects of Coping Strategies on Mental Health during Prolonged Unemployment: A Longitudinal Analysis Unemployment has a profound, negative influence on individuals, including decreased psychological and physical well-being (see McKee-Ryan, Song, Wanberg, & Kinicki, 2005; Prussia, Fugate, & Kinicki, 2001). Considerable research has examined how people cope with unemployment, and the effectiveness of different coping strategies (e.g., Bennett, Martin, Bies, & Brockner, 1995; Leana & Feldman, 1992; Wanberg, 1997). According to Lazarus and Folkman (1984), coping serves two important functions: managing or tackling the problem, and regulating the emotional distress experienced. Correspondingly, reemployment and mental health constitute perhaps the two most important outcomes for evaluating coping strategies for unemployment. Previous research has documented that problem-focused coping (e.g., job search activities) rather than emotion-focused coping (e.g., distancing from unemployment) enhances the probability of being reemployed (e.g., Kinicki, Prussia, & McKee-Ryan, 2000; Wanberg, 1997). However, the number of chronically unemployed people is large in many societies, and their mental health deserves attention and concern. Unemployed people are more susceptible to mental health problems than their employed counterparts (e.g., Lai, Chan, & Luk, 1997), which can add significant pressure to the health care system of a society (Üstün, 1999). The present study is primarily concerned with the effects of coping strategies on the mental health of people in a state of prolonged unemployment in Hong Kong. McKee-Ryan et al. (2005) have conducted a meta-analysis of the effects of different coping strategies on mental health. Most studies involving coping strategies and mental health in an unemployment context are based on a cross-sectional design, and causal directions cannot be firmly ascertained. The first objective of the present study is to extend this literature by the use of a longitudinal design to evaluate the causal effects of coping strategies. Coping and mental health 40 The second objective is to explore the duration of the effects of coping strategies on mental health. The dynamic nature of coping is well recognized (Folkman & Lazarus, 1985; Kinicki & Latack, 1990; McKee-Ryan et al., 2005), but it is not clear how long the effects of different coping strategies may last in a prolonged unemployment context, and whether the duration varies across different coping strategies. The present study also sheds light on these important questions. The Transactional Model of Stress and Coping (DeLongis, Folkman, & Lazarus, 1988; Lazarus & Cohen, 1977; Lazarus & Folkman, 1984) provides an overarching theoretical framework for the study. The model posits that how people appraise the environment influences their mental health as well as their choice of coping strategies, which in turn affects mental health. Although this model implies the mediating effects of coping strategies on the relationship between situational appraisals and mental health, it also raises the possibility that the effects of coping strategies on mental health may be partially explainable by situational appraisals. Thus, the present study examined whether two situational appraisals, economic hardship and unemployment negativity, may account for some of the effects of coping strategies on mental health in the prolonged unemployment context. This question is important because a better understanding of the interplay of situational appraisals, coping and mental health is pivotal to theoretical advances and the design of effective intervention strategies to help unemployed individuals. Finally, we also consider the possibility of reciprocal causal relationships between coping strategies and mental health, because reciprocal relationships between coping and mental health in the context of unemployment are plausible (Kinicki & Latack, 1990; Latack, Kinicki, & Prussia, 1995; McKee-Ryan et al., 2005). Our longitudinal design provides an effective way to test such reciprocal relationships (Cole & Maxwell, 2003; Zapf, Dormann, & Frese, 1996). Coping and mental health 41 Effects of Coping Strategies on Mental Health Coping is defined as the cognitive and behavioural effort an individual makes to contend with events appraised as stressful (Lazarus & Folkman, 1984). Coping strategies are usually categorized into problem- or emotion-focused (Lazarus & Folkman, 1984). Problemfocused coping strategies represent the active attempts people make to reduce the stress they face, whereas emotion-focused coping strategies direct at regulating emotional problems and emotionally escaping from or avoiding stressful situations. Kinicki and Latack (1990) identified a five-factor model of coping in the unemployment context, including proactive search (i.e., job search activities), nonwork organization, positive self-assessment, distancing from loss (i.e., distancing from unemployment in our study), and job devaluation. Job search activities (or job search in short) and distancing from unemployment (or distancing in short) represent two important strategies that have been typically used to operationalize problemfocused and emotion-focused coping strategies respectively in the context of unemployment (Gowan, Riordan, & Gatewood, 1999). Job search refers to attempts to find a job and to focus time and energy on job-seeking activities to seek reemployment. In contrast, distancing represents a cognitive effort to escape the unpleasant reality of unemployment by trying not to think about it, believing that time will take care of the situation, and the like. The present research also focuses on these two coping strategies: One involving the proactive search for a solution and the other entailing the avoidance of the stressor. In the context of unemployment, distancing shows positive effect and job search shows negative effect on mental health. For instance, Julkunen (2001) found that emotion-focused coping including distancing was positively related to mental health across six-European samples. The positive effect of distancing on mental health was also found in a Hong Kong Chinese sample (Lai & Chan, 2002). In fact, the positive relationship between distancing and Coping and mental health 42 mental health was confirmed in McKee-Ryan et al.’s (2005) meta-analysis. In contrast, several studies reported a negative relationship between job search and mental health (Leana & Feldman, 1992; Wanberg, 1997). McKee-Ryan et al.’s (2005) meta-analysis also confirmed the negative effect of job search on mental health. The typical explanation for this pattern of effects is that job search requires time and financial cost, and often results in rejection and frustration (Barber, 1998; Moynihan, Roehling, Lepine, & Boswell, 2003). More often than not, job seeking brings discouragement and a new source of stress for individuals in a state of prolonged unemployment. In contrast, the distancing strategy may reflect an attempt of the unemployed people to adapt to their current life, which may result in emotional stability. While the above explanation is sensible, a methodological problem needs to be addressed before its validity can be firmly established. Most previous findings concerning coping strategies and mental health in an unemployment context are based on cross-sectional designs (Grossi, 1999; Julkunen, 2001; Morrison, O'Connor, Morrison, & Hill, 2001; Pearlin, Menaghan, Lieberman, & Mullan, 1981). Some studies (Gowan et al., 1999; Kinicki & Latack, 1990; Lai & Chan, 2002) adopted a longitudinal design, but they did not test the lagged effect of coping on mental health. Wanberg’s (1997) longitudinal study is an important exception for establishing the causal effects of coping strategies. In a two-wave study, Wanberg examined the effects of five coping strategies (job search, nonwork organization, positive self-assessment, distancing from loss, and job devaluation) on synchronous mental health and three-month lagged mental health. The results revealed that job search was negatively related to synchronous mental health, but not significantly to three-month lagged mental health when previous mental health was controlled for. In the absence of significant lagged effects, the causal effect of job search cannot be firmly established. With regard to distancing, it surprisingly did not show any significant effects on both synchronous and three- Coping and mental health 43 month lagged mental health. Her results deviated from the findings of most other studies, but we note that her results for lagged effects were based on both unemployed as well as reemployed individuals. In the present study, we used a longitudinal design to examine whether or not the positive effect of distancing and the negative effect of job search would be confirmed among individuals with prolonged unemployment. Hypothesis 1: The use of distancing shows a positive causal effect on mental health among people with prolonged unemployment. Hypothesis 2: The use of job search shows a negative causal effect on mental health among people with prolonged unemployment. Duration of Coping Effects Coping is widely viewed as a dynamic process that changes over time, which calls for a longitudinal approach to examine how coping behaviours influence outcome variables over time (Folkman & Lazarus, 1985; Kinicki & Latack, 1990; McKee-Ryan et al., 2005). Some researchers argued that the effects of coping strategies on mental health are transient (Brenner, Sorbom, & Wallius, 1985), because their long-term effects are hard to detect (Leana & Feldman, 1995; Wanberg, 1997). In fact, as noted before, Wanberg (1997) did not find any lagged effect of coping on mental health measured three months later in an unemployment context. A major objective of the present research is to evaluate the duration of the effects of coping with a three-wave longitudinal design. Based on a comprehensive review of psychological and physiological studies, Taylor (1991) concluded that negative events prompt people to exert more efforts to dampen their impact than positive or neutral events. Taylor suggested several explanations for this pattern, including: (1) when people are confronted with negative events that may threaten their selfconceptions, they try to reinterpret, distort, or minimize the information so as to maintain Coping and mental health 44 their self-esteem; (2) people resist negative moods, and spontaneously make an effort to get out of bad mood; and (3) negative events elicit intensive causal and analytic reasoning, which in turn helps a person take action to minimize or end the negative events. Coming back to the unemployment context, the detrimental effect of job search on mental health is commonly attributed to failure experiences and rejection during the jobseeking process (Lai & Chan, 2002; Wanberg, 1997; Warr, Jackson, & Banks, 1988). In contrast, distancing helps unemployed people avoid such negative experiences and adapt to their current life, which contributes to good mental health (Julkunen, 2001; Lai & Chan, 2002; McKee-Ryan et al., 2005). Based on Taylor’s (1991) argument, because job search involves unpleasant events, people should try to actively minimize the negative consequences of rejection and critical feedback during job-seeking. Thus, the negative effect of job search should be short-lived because of the active efforts that people make to minimize its impact. In contrast, distancing is less likely to cause such kind of unpleasant events, and people are less inclined to moderate and diminish its effects. As a consequence, the positive effect of distancing on mental health should be more long-lasting than the negative effect of job search. This reasoning suggests that the effect of job search is more likely to be contemporaneous, whereas a lagged effect of distancing is more likely to be found. Hypothesis 3: The positive effect of distancing on mental health lasts longer than the negative effect of job search. The Roles of Situational Appraisals Although individuals with prolonged unemployment may suffer from their taxing circumstances, they are not entirely passive and can react to unemployment in different ways (Latack et al., 1995; Leana & Feldman, 1988; Leana, Feldman, & Tan, 1998). Transactional model of stress and coping (DeLongis et al., 1988; Lazarus & Cohen, 1977; Lazarus & Coping and mental health 45 Folkman, 1984) provides an important theoretical framework for understanding the processes involved. The model construes stressful experiences as person-environment transactions, and when environmental demands tax or exceed people’s coping resources and give rise to an imbalance, people will appraise the situation as negative and stressful. In the model, appraisal is a core transactional variable and reflects the specific way an individual appraises an environmental condition, which may be influenced by his/her personal characteristics (Lazarus & Folkman, 1984). Situational appraisals are related to a problem’s severity and extent of threat, and affect the mental health and well-being of individuals (Folkman, Lazarus, Gruen, & De Lange, 1986). The model also theorizes that situational appraisals can influence the coping strategies individuals choose to adopt (Folkman, Lazarus, Dunkel-Schetter, DeLongis, & Gruen, 1986; Lazarus & Folkman, 1984). Because the transactional model suggests that situational appraisals influence both mental health and coping behaviours, it opens up the possibility that some relationships between coping strategies and mental health may be caused by situational appraisals. In the study, we operationalized situational appraisals as the appraisals of the severity of the problems in the economic and psychological aspects of unemployment life, namely economic hardship and unemployment negativity. Economic hardship arises when financial resources cannot meet daily needs, which is a common experience for unemployed people, especially the chronically unemployed (Kessler, Turner, & House, 1988; Liem & Liem, 1988). Even if a person receives unemployment benefits from government, economic hardship is still likely because the amount usually covers basic needs only. However, unemployed people may feel different levels of economic hardship, depending on the extent of the imbalance between their financial demands and the resources available to them. Unemployment negativity is defined as how upset an individual is about being unemployment by Wanberg and Marchese (1994). It can be viewed as a situational appraisal Coping and mental health 46 of the negative experiences associated with unemployment in psychological terms. People who suffer from prolonged unemployment not only have to face job loss, but also everyday life events. For unemployed people, many routine life events, such as quarrels among family members and small conflict with neighbours, may turn into daily hassles that lower mental health (e.g. Lazarus, 1984). As with economic hardship, unemployed people may experience different levels of unemployment negativity depending on their specific circumstances. In summary, economic hardship and unemployment negativity are salient and important appraisals in a prolonged unemployment context. As a first attempt to explore the effects of situational appraisals on the relationships between coping strategies and mental health, it makes good sense to focus on these two constructs. Negative situational appraisals are typically related to lower mental health (DeLongis et al., 1988; Folkman, Lazarus, Gruen et al., 1986; Frese, 1987; Lazarus & Cohen, 1977; Lazarus & Folkman, 1984; Vinokur & Schul, 2002). With regard to economic hardship, Kessler, House, and Turner (1987) found that among three immediate consequences of unemployment (marital conflict, loss of work relationship, and economic hardship), economic hardship accounted for 90% of the explainable variance in mental health problems related to unemployment. Price et al. (2002) found that economic hardship mediated the relationship between job loss and poor health. The negative relationship between economic hardship and mental health has been confirmed in the meta-analysis of McKee-Ryan et al. (2005). The negative effect of unemployment negativity is also well-known, as people who feel negative about unemployment are likely to live an unhappy life and suffer from poor mental health. Both Wanberg and Marchese (1994) and Wanberg et al. (1999) reported a negative relationship between unemployment negativity and mental health. To replicate the wellknown effects of economic hardship and unemployment negativity on mental health, the Coping and mental health 47 following hypothesis is proposed: Hypothesis 4. Economic hardship and unemployment negativity negatively affect mental health during prolonged unemployment. In transactional model of stress and coping, there is a general assumption that unless a threat is clearly seen as insurmountable, the more severe a problem brought about by a stressful encounter, the more likely that people would adopt problem-focused coping strategies, i.e., face it and fight it (Folkman, Lazarus, Dunkel-Schetter et al., 1986). Economic hardship should propel unemployed people to engage in intensive job search because they want to escape from the economic stress associated with unemployment (Kinicki et al., 2000; Leana & Feldman, 1995; Vinokur & Caplan, 1987). In a similar vein, unemployment negativity raises people’s need for a job, and intensifies job seeking activities (Feather & O’Brien, 1986). Seeking reemployment is an obvious way to put an end to the negativity associated with unemployment. Following Lazarus and Folkman’s (1984) theorizing, Gowan et al. (1999) proposed that people with coping resources, e.g., social support and financial resources, are more likely to emotionally distance themselves from the negative events, because they have no imperative needs to solve the unemployment problem immediately. Although only the positive effect of social support on distancing was statistically significant in their study, the correlation between financial resource and distancing was in the expected direction. Similarly, Kinicki et al. (2000) found that coping resources (including self-esteem, life satisfaction and social support) were positively related with distancing. Coping resources are associated with situational appraisals (Lazarus & Folkman, 1984): The more the coping resources, the less the perceived severity of problems. In line with Gowan et al.’s (1999) theorizing, we predict negative effects of economic hardship and unemployment negativity on distancing, because these negative appraisals reflect the severity of the unemployment problem and the Coping and mental health 48 inadequacies of coping resources. In other words, low economic hardship and unemployment negativity increase the tendency of distancing from unemployment. Hypothesis 5a. Economic hardship and unemployment negativity negatively influence the adoption of distancing during prolonged unemployment. Hypothesis 5b. Economic hardship and unemployment negativity positively influence the adoption of job search during prolonged unemployment. The above arguments suggest that both economic hardship and unemployment negativity are negatively related to both distancing and mental health, which raises the possibility that the positive relationship between distancing and mental health documented in many previous studies may be due to economic hardship and unemployment negativity. In other words, these two variables function as third variables that can inflate the relationship of two variables. In a similar vein, the two situational appraisals may also inflate the negative relationship between job search and mental health frequently reported in previous studies because they are negatively related to mental health, but positively to job search. Obviously, mental health and coping strategies are determined by many factors, and it is unlikely that these two situational appraisals can provide a full explanation for the effects of coping on mental health. This reasoning is summarized in the following hypothesis. Hypothesis 6a: The positive effect of distancing on mental health is partially due to economic hardship and unemployment negativity. Hypothesis 6b: The negative effect of job search on mental health is partially due to economic hardship and unemployment negativity. Methods Participants and Procedures The data reported in this study were part of a research program to examine the Coping and mental health 49 psychological, behavioural and social profiles of unemployed individuals receiving assistance from the Comprehensive Social Security Assistance (CSSA) Scheme of the Hong Kong Government. CSSA helps unemployed people meet their basic needs, and in order to encourage self-reliance, the Hong Kong government introduced the “Support for Selfreliance” scheme, which made the granting of CSSA conditional on their engagement in job search activities. In other words, the scheme required the unemployed recipients to participate in work-like activities or training schemes for them to continue to receive CSSA, which was intended to motivate CSSA recipients to achieve self-reliance through reemployment. A three-wave longitudinal design with about three months between two waves was adopted. Participation was voluntary, and they either filled out the survey at home or in an unemployment services centre that they frequently visited. Because some participants’ education levels were low, administrators of the survey would provide an explanation of the statements in the questionnaire if participants were unclear about their meaning. A total of 2,224 participants were surveyed in the first wave. The number of participants dropped to 1,446 in Wave 2, and 1,070 in Wave 3. Attrition was caused by various reasons, including unwillingness to participate in the survey, loss of contact, and reemployment. Note that our study context was primarily concerned with prolonged unemployment, and only those who remained unemployed continued to be surveyed. To evaluate the extent of the non-response bias, demographic characteristics of the participants who responded to all the three waves were compared with those of the attrition cases, i.e., those who only responded to the first or the first two waves. Chi-square tests showed that there was no significant group difference in gender composition, χ2 (df = 1) = 1, ns, but there was a significant difference in marital status, χ 2 (df = 3) = 11.92, p < .01, showing a relatively lower proportion of married people in the attrition cases. The group difference in education level was also significant, χ 2 (df = 6) = 29.21, p < .001, with the Coping and mental health 50 education level of the attrition cases being higher. In addition, one-way ANOVAs were used to test the group differences in the continuous variables. Compared with the respondents, the attrition cases were younger, F (1, 2222) = 62.79, p < .001 (mean age = 38.69 vs. 42.45), and had a shorter duration of unemployment, F (1, 2156) = 6.51, p < .05 (mean length in years = 2.36 vs. 2.69), and hence a shorter duration of receiving unemployment benefits, F (1, 2222) = 7.64, p < .01, (mean length in years = 1.32 vs. 1.55). Although there were significant differences in some demographic characteristics between respondents and the attrition cases, the problem of self-selection should not be serious. Based on Goodman and Blum (1996), we used multiple logistic regression to assess the presence of non-random sampling. The dichotomous variable (1 = respondents; 0 = attrition cases) was regressed on all the variables of interest (i.e., mental health, job search activities, distancing from unemployment, economic hardship and unemployment negativity) measured in wave 1. No statistically significant logistic regression coefficients were found, indicating no non-random sampling problem. Because of the repetitive nature of a panel design, we were concerned that the tedious process may have discouraged some participants from responding to all of the three waves of the survey carefully. The first step in the analysis was to screen out problematic cases. We dropped the cases that provided the same response to 25 or more consecutive items in a survey (about 20% of the total number of items), because they were unlikely to be motivated, and their responses were likely to be problematic. This criterion was used because it provided a balance between maintaining the quality of the data and retaining a large portion of the respondents. Note that the full questionnaire was quite long, including not only the measurement items of the focal variables for the present study, but also items for evaluating the CSSA programs which were not relevant to the current study. In the questionnaire, nearly all constructs had both positively and negatively worded items. So we are quite confident that Coping and mental health 51 the deleted cases were problematic cases. All three waves of a respondent were assessed independently, and if a respondent was problematic in one wave, we had to drop this case because of the longitudinal design, resulting in a relatively high percentage of non-inclusion. 129 cases were screened out by this procedure, and 941 valid cases were available for further analyses. Among the valid unemployed cases, the majority were male (81%), and only 19% were female. With regard to education level, 44.6% attended secondary school, 47.5% attended primary school, 0.2% only attended kindergarten, and 6.1% had no schooling at all. Only 1.6% had some tertiary education. In terms of marital status, 51.8% were married, 34% single, 12.5% divorced, and 1.7% widowed. In Wave 1, the mean age was 42.53, the mean length of unemployment was 2.59 years, and the mean length of receipt of unemployment benefits was 1.51 years. We also conducted a comparison of demographic characteristics between the excluded (N = 129) and valid cases (N= 941). Chi-square tests showed that there was no significant group difference due to gender, χ2 (df = 1) = 2.10, ns, education level, χ2 (df = 6) = 10.87, ns, and marital status, χ2 (df = 3) = 6.24, ns. One-way ANOVAs showed that the two groups were not different in age, F (1, 1068) = .17, ns, nor in length of unemployment, F (1, 1040) = .79, ns. Measures Mental health. To keep the survey short, we randomly selected five items from Goldberg’s (1972) 12-item general health questionnaire. They were “I have lost much sleep over worry ”, “I have being thinking of myself as a worthless person”, “I have felt constantly under stain”, “I have been feeling unhappy and depressed”, and “I have been feeling reasonably happy, all things considered (reverse)”. Participants were asked to report how frequently they experienced the conditions described in the statements in the past three Coping and mental health 52 months on five point scales (1 = always and 5 = never). A higher score represented better mental health, and the Cronbach’s alphas of the mental health scale for the three waves were acceptable: 69, .72, and .72. Coping. The measures for the coping strategies, job search and distancing, were adopted from the corresponding subscales of the coping scale developed by Kinicki and Latack (1990). Two items were used to measure the active attempt to find a job: “focus my time and energy on job search activities” and “talk with people who can help me find a job”. The correlations of the two items were .42 (p < .01), .42 (p < .01), .38 (p < .01) for the three waves respectively. Distancing was assessed by four items: “try not to think about unemployment”, “tell myself that time usually takes care of situations like this”, “remind myself that other people have been in this situation and that I can probably do as well as they did”, and “remind myself that it isn’t the end of the world”. The Cronbach’s alphas of the distancing scale for the three waves were acceptable, except for Wave 1: .60, .67, and .71, respectively. Respondents were asked to rate the frequency of using each strategy to cope with unemployment on 5-point scales, ranging from 1 (always) to 5 (never). We reversed the scoring so that a higher score indicated a higher frequency of using each coping strategy. Situational appraisals. Our study involved two situational appraisals. Economic hardship was measured by one general item, “how do you evaluate your financial situation of you and your family, if you cannot find a job in a short time and continue to receive assistance from the Comprehensive Social Security Assistance (CSSA) Scheme”. Participants responded on a five-point scale (1 = extremely bad; 5 = extremely good). A single item scale is deemed adequate because the notion of economic hardship is simple and we only need a summary judgment (Sackett & Larson, 1990). One item was also used to measure unemployment negativity, which was adopted from Wanberg and Marchese (1994). Participants were asked how much being unemployed was upsetting on a five-point scale (1= Coping and mental health 53 extremely upsetting; 5 = not at all). Again, because we only need a summary judgment on unemployment negativity, and this construct seems straightforward, a single item scale should be adequate (e.g., Sackett & Larson, 1990; Wanous, Reicheres, & Hudy, 1997). Furthermore, the narrow scope of this construct is supported by Wanberg and Marchese (1994), who used three items to measure this construct. They found that the Cronbach alpha was above .90, suggesting high item redundancy (Boyle, 1991). We reversed the scoring of the two variables so that a higher score indicated higher economic hardship and unemployment negativity. Confirmatory factor analysis. We first tested the measurement model based on all the items of the focal variables in Wave 1 (13 items representing 5 variables: job search, distancing, mental health, unemployment negativity, and economic hardship). AMOS 6 was used, and the results showed satisfactory model fit: 2 = 250.58, df = 57, goodness-of-fit index (GFI) = .96, comparative fit index (CFI) = .90, incremental fit index (IFI) = .90, root mean square error of approximation (RMSEA) = .060. All items loaded significantly and substantially on their intended constructs. The measurement models for Wave 2 and Wave 3 also provided a good fit to the data, supporting the subsequent tests of the structural models. Analytic Strategies Model specification. The models adopted in this study were based on Burkholder and Harlow (2003) and Finkel (1995), which have the following features: (1) independent and dependent variables are measured at all time points; (2) the measurement errors of the same indicators across different waves are set as correlated; (3) the auto-regression of each construct is taken into account. When predicting a dependent variable at Time t+1 by an independent variable at Time t, the dependent variable at Time t is controlled for. The unidentified variables that may affect the dependent variable at Time t+1 are likely to be operative at Time t, and the controlling for the dependent variable at Time t is an indirect way Coping and mental health 54 to control for and reduce the effects of unidentified variables on the dependent variable at Time t+1 (Cole & Maxwell, 2003; Zapf et al., 1996). (4) The model also controlls for the contemporaneous (occasion-specific) covariance between the predictor and the outcome variables by allowing the disturbance errors for different latent variables at the same time point to correlate. Taking this covariance into account is important because it modells unobserved occasion-specific influences, which may be present in each wave and inflate time-lagged parameter estimates (Wiesner, 2003). If time-lagged effects emerge in the presence of such stringent controls, they are indeed very robust. Figure 1 shows the baseline model to test Hypotheses 1 to 3, and explore the possibility of reciprocal relationships between two coping strategies (job search and distancing) and mental health. Economical hardship and unemployment negativity were then added to the model to test Hypothesis 4 to Hypothesis 5b. Hypotheses 6a and 6b were tested by comparing the models before and after economical hardship and unemployment negativity were included. Note that causal language is used in the paper to simplify the presentation of the findings, but we emphasize that our longitudinal design only provides strong, but not definitive, evidence for the causal claims made. __________ ________________ INSERT FIGURE 1 ABOUT HERE ______________ ____________ Time invariance. Before evaluating the hypotheses, we first tested the time invariance of the measurement model in terms of factor loadings across the three waves. A model with no constraints was compared with progressively more restrictive models. Results showed that the model fit did not change significantly after the constraints were imposed, indicating that Coping and mental health 55 time-invariance of the measurement model was assumed. The final model provided a satisfactory fit to the data, 2 = 1241.09, df = 463, GFI = .92, CFI = .90, IFI = .90, RMSEA = .04. Therefore, all the models in the subsequent analyses included the time-invariance constrains of factor loadings. Results Descriptive Statistics _______________________ INSERT TABLE 1 ABOUT HERE _______________________________ Table 1 presents the means and intercorrelations of mental health, job search, distancing, economic hardship, and unemployment negativity across the three waves. Note that the correlations between job search and mental health were all negative and significant and the contemporaneous correlations were generally larger than correlations across waves. Thus, the synchronous relationship between job search and mental health was stronger than their lagged relationships, which was consistent with previous research (e.g., Wanberg, 1997). In contrast, the correlations between distancing and mental health were all positive, but the contemporaneous correlations were not larger than the lagged relationships. Economic hardship and unemployment negativity were both negatively associated with mental health, and positively with job search in each wave, confirming the necessity to control for these two important situational appraisals in order to gauge the genuine relationship between job search and mental health. However, the relationships between distancing and economic hardship as well as unemployment negativity were trivial. Note that although the demographic variables (gender, age, education level, length of unemployment) were correlated with some focal variables, their influence did not change the Coping and mental health 56 pattern of our main findings to be presented below1. We therefore did not include them in subsequent analyses. Hypothesis Testing A set of models were compared, and the results of model comparison were used to evaluate the hypotheses. Hypotheses 1 and 2, which are about the causal effects of job search and distancing on mental health, and Hypothesis 3, which is about the duration of the effects, were tested by a series of nested models shown in Figure 2. Following Frese, Garst, and Fay (2007), small figures were presented to show models tested. First, the baseline model (Model I-0 in Table 2 and Figure 2) included autoregressive paths, constrains of time invariance of the factor loadings, within-occasion covariance between job search, distancing and mental health, but no cross-lagged relationships between coping strategies and mental health. Second, we tested models that included time-lagged effects based on these two hypotheses. Model I-1 added two time-lagged paths from distancing to mental health to the baseline model (i.e., distancing at Time 1 to mental health at Time 2, and distancing at Time 2 to mental health at Time 3). Model I-2 added two time-lagged paths from job search to mental health to the baseline model. Model I-3 included the time-lagged effects of both distancing and job search on mental health. Third, to explore the possibility of reciprocal effects, we first evaluated models with only the time-lagged effects that are opposite to those specified in our hypotheses, i.e., from mental health to the two coping strategies. Model I-4 added the 3month lagged effects of mental health on distancing to the baseline model. Model I-5 added the 3-month lagged effects of mental health on job search to the baseline model. Model I-6 included the 3-month lagged effects of mental health on both coping strategies. Finally, we tested the reciprocal model in Model I-7, i.e., the two coping strategies and mental health exerted cross-lagged effects on each other. To test whether the effects of coping strategies on Coping and mental health 57 mental health can last 6 months, Model I-8 added the path from distancing at Time 1 to mental health at T3 to the baseline model, and Model I-9 added the path from job search at Time 1 to mental health at Time 3. __________________ ______________ INSERT FIGURE 2 and TABLE 2 ABOUT HERE _______________ _________________ Table 2 shows that all the models fitted the data reasonably well, but only Model I-1, which specifies 3-month lagged effects of distancing on mental health, and the reciprocal model (Model I-7) yielded significantly better model fit than the baseline model (Model I-1: △2 = 10.78, df = 2, p < .01; Model I-7: △2 = 19.47, df = 8, p < .05). However, because Model I-7 was not significantly better than Model I-1, △2 = 8.69, df = 6, ns, Model I-1 is preferred according to the parsimony principle (Kelloway, 1998). The comparison based on the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) between the two models also showed that Model I-1 is better than Model I-7 (AIC: Model I-1 = 1431.3; Model I-7 = 1433.6). In fact, in the reciprocal model, only the 3-month lagged paths from distancing to mental health were significant, and other time-lagged paths were not, thus yielding no support for reciprocal causality. Since both Models I-8 and I-9 did not improve model fit significantly as compared to the baseline model, the 6-month lagged effects of distancing and job search on mental health were not supported. Given that Model I-1 was the optimal model, we further tested whether the 3-month lagged paths were equivalent across the two time lags (Time 1 to Time 2, and Time 2 to Time 3) in Model I-10. Results showed that the model with the invariance constraint (Model I-10) did not differ from Model I-1 significantly, △2 = .63, df = 1, ns. The AIC of Model I-10 (1429.9) was also smaller than that of Model I-1 (1431.3), which supports the equivalence of the causal effects across time. Coping and mental health 58 In summary, Hypothesis 1 was supported: Distancing showed a time-lagged, positive effect on mental health. This effect was only found in a three-month lag (i.e., from Time 1 to Time 2, and from Time 2 to Time 3), but not in a six-month lag (i.e., from Time 1 to Time 3). The causal effect of job search on mental health (Hypothesis 2) was not confirmed in the time-lagged analysis. Because we hypothesize that the effects of job search are likely to be short-lasting (Hypothesis 3), we explored its synchronous effects. We deleted the contemporaneous correlations between job search and other latent variables in Model I-10, which was the best model among Models I-1 to I-10, and added three synchronous paths from job search to mental health (Model II). Note that those contemporaneous correlations were deleted because in structural equation model, the disturbance of an endogenous variable should be uncorrelated with that of its antecedent variables. This model yielded an acceptable fit, 2 = 1378.26, df = 465, GFI = .91, CFI = .89, IFI = .89, RMSEA = .05, AIC = 1570.26. The coefficients for the 3 month lagged effects of distancing and the synchronous effects of job search on mental health were all significant. Distancing influenced 3 month-lagged mental health, but not 6 month-lagged mental health. Job search did not affect time-lagged mental health, but showed synchronous effects on mental health. Therefore, Hypothesis 3 was supported in that the effect of distancing lasted longer than that of job search. The results for model II are presented in Figure 3. For the sake of clarity, only the structural paths are shown. ________________________________ INSERT FIGURE 3 ABOUT HERE ________________________________ To test Hypotheses 4 to 6b, which are about the effects of economic hardship and unemployment negativity, these two variables were added to Model II, which included threemonth lagged effects of distancing and synchronous effects of job search on mental health. We first tested the 3-month lagged effects of these two variables on job search, distancing, Coping and mental health 59 and mental health, and all the effects were found to be insignificant. We then tested models with synchronous effects only. Figure 4 shows all the models we used to test Hypotheses 4 to 6b. The baseline model (Model III-0) includes all the variables without specifying any relationship between the two situational appraisals (economic hardship and unemployment negativity) and other variables. Model III-1 adds the paths from economic hardship and unemployment negativity to mental health. To explore the effects of situational appraisals on coping strategies, Model III-2 adds the paths from economic hardship and unemployment negativity to distancing to the baseline model, and Model III-3 adds the paths from economic hardship and unemployment negativity to job search to the baseline model. Finally, Model III-4 includes all the paths from the two situational appraisals to coping strategies and mental health. The results are summarized in Tables 3. As shown, Models III-1 to III-4 all significantly improved model fit relative to the baseline model. However, only Models III-4 yielded reasonably acceptable model fit, 2 = 1844.86, df = 653, GFI = .90, CFI = .89, IFI = .88, RMSEA = .044. Its 2 was significantly smaller than the other models and its AIC (2098.86) was the smallest. The results for the path coefficients of Model III-4 are shown in Figure 5. Again, for the sake of clarity, we only present the structural paths. Figure 5 shows that economic hardship and unemployment negativity were both negatively and significantly related to mental health, which supports Hypothesis 4. Hypothesis 5a was not supported, because the two situational appraisals did not show any significant effect on distancing. Unemployment negativity, but not economic hardship, was positively related to job search, providing partial support to Hypothesis 5b. ______________ _________________ INSERT TABLE 3 AND FIGURES 4 AND 5 ABOUT HERE ________________ ________________ Coping and mental health 60 A comparison of Figures 3 and 5 suggests that Hypothesis 6b, but not Hypothesis 6a, was confirmed. In support of Hypothesis 6b, two of the three paths from job search to mental health became insignificant after economic hardship and unemployment negativity were included. The third path, while still significant, was reduced drastically. Therefore, the relationships between job search and mental health were primarily due to the two situational appraisals, particularly unemployment negativity. The 3-month lagged effects of distancing on mental health remained significant after economic hardship and unemployment negativity were added, thus rejecting Hypothesis 6a. In other words, although economic hardship and unemployment negativity influenced mental health, they did not change the relationship between distancing and mental health significantly. Discussion Causal Effects of Distancing and Job Search on Mental Health Although the effects of coping strategies on mental health during unemployment have been consistently demonstrated in many studies, a few important issues have not been settled because of some methodological ambiguities, such as the causality of the relationships and whether the relationships are caused by factors that correlated with both coping strategies and mental health. The longitudinal design and the stringent modelling approach of the present study have provided some robust findings for settling these important issues. In a prolonged unemployment context, the positive causal effect of distancing on mental health was confirmed in a time-lagged manner. With respect to job search, only synchronous effects were found, and lagged effects were absent. Furthermore, the synchronous effect was mostly attributable to the two negative situational appraisals studied (economic hardship and unemployment negativity), especially unemployment negativity. The negative relationship between job search and mental health has frequently been Coping and mental health 61 reported (Lai & Chan, 2002; McKee-Ryan et al., 2005; Wanberg, 1997; Warr et al., 1988). The leading explanation for this relationship is that job search involves rejection and frustration, which is deleterious to unemployed people’s mental health. Our results suggest that this explanation is only part of the story, and the detrimental effects of job search during unemployment are over-estimated. The negative relationship between job search and mental health is inflated by the presence of negative situational appraisals, notably by unemployment negativity in our case. Consistent with transactional model of stress and coping (DeLongis et al., 1988; Lazarus & Cohen, 1977; Lazarus & Folkman, 1984), our results showed that situational appraisals influenced both coping strategies and mental health. Appraisals about the difficult life situations associated with unemployment trigger intensive job search, since people in these predicaments have the immediate need to reduce the hardship quickly (Feather & O'Brien, 1986; Leana & Feldman, 1995; Vinokur & Caplan, 1987). At the same time, negative situational appraisals associated with unemployment also lower the mental health of the unemployed (Kessler et al., 1987; Price et al., 2002; Wanberg et al., 1999; Wanberg & Marchese, 1994). Our findings suggest that these relationships lead to the overestimation of the negative relationship between job search and mental health. We note, however, that after taking into account economic hardship and unemployment negativity, job search still showed some significant effect on mental health in one of the three waves. This result suggests that we cannot completely rule out the possibility that job search may partially mediate the effects of unemployment negativity and economic hardship on mental health. In other words, it is possible that difficult life situations appraised by unemployed individuals not only damage mental health directly, but also lower mental health indirectly through job search. The mediating role of coping in the relationship between appraisal and mental health has been implied in the transactional model of stress and coping (e.g., Lazarus & Folkman, 1984), and more research is needed to see if coping can indeed Coping and mental health 62 mediate the effects of negative situation appraisal on mental health. The present study only included the situational appraisals of two negative aspects of the unemployment experience (economic and psychological aspects). Other types of situational appraisals may account for the residual relationship between job search and mental health. For example, appraisals about the social aspect of the unemployment experience, such as normative pressure from significant others, may further weaken or nullify the relationship between job search and mental health. Besides appraisals about the severity of problems or the extent of threat in different aspects of unemployment life, the appraisals about the causality of unemployment and about the reversibility of unemployment may also play a major role in the process. Further research should continue to explore other appraisals that may inflate the relationship between job search and mental health of unemployed people. Previous results generally support the positive effect of distancing on mental health in the unemployment context (e.g., Julkunen, 2001; Lai & Chan, 2002), although some mixed results have been reported (Kinicki & Latack, 1990; Wanberg, 1997). Our results concerning the positive effect of distancing on mental health for people with prolonged unemployment are robust, because of the use of a rigorous modelling approach. We note that there were small positive correlations between job search and distancing, which suggests that the two coping strategies may coexist. In other words, individuals may adopt the two coping strategies simultaneously to cope with prolonged unemployment. Distancing has the adaptive function of decreasing or assuaging the negative emotions evoked by unemployment, which may in turn facilitate efforts to solve or manage the problems of unemployment. In fact, we regard distancing as a relatively adaptive way to regulate negative emotions in out context, and it should be distinguished from other dysfunctional emotion-focused coping strategies. For example, Folkman, Lazarus, Dunkel-Schetter et al. (1986) identified two conceptually similar emotion-focused coping strategies: Distancing and escape-avoidance. Their Coping and mental health 63 “distancing” measure was consistent with ours and refers to efforts to detach oneself from the situation and look at the bright side of things. In contrast, “escape-avoidance” is concerned with wishful thinking (e.g., “wished that the situation would go away or somehow be over with”) and efforts to escape from or avoid the situation (e.g., “tried to make myself feel better by eating, drinking, smoking, using drugs or medication, etc.”; “slept more than usual”; “avoided being with people in general”). It seems that in the unemployment context, the effect of escape-avoidance on mental health is likely to be negative, which is worth further exploration. In addition, we found that appraisals related to difficult life situations (economic hardship and unemployment negativity) were related to job search, but did not affect distancing. Given the adaptive function of distancing in the context of prolonged unemployment, the results do not seem surprising. We note that little research has examined the antecedents of the distancing strategy during unemployment, with the exception of the study by Gowan et al. (1999). They explored several antecedents of distancing, including education level, financial hardship, and social support. As mentioned before, only social support showed a positive relationship with distancing. In addition, gender differences in coping with unemployment reported by Leana and Feldman’s (1991) suggest that distancing may be related to personal dispositions. Future research should continue to explore the antecedents of the distancing strategy in an unemployment context. Taking advantage of our panel data, we explored the possibility of reciprocal relationships between coping and mental health during prolonged unemployment. This idea has been raised, but not tested (Kinicki & Latack, 1990; Latack et al., 1995; McKee-Ryan et al., 2005). Our time-lagged results clearly support the unidirectional effect of distancing on mental health. Regarding the relationship between job search and mental health, the lagged effect in neither direction was not confirmed. Perhaps unemployed people’s coping styles are Coping and mental health 64 relatively stable, which are not susceptible to fluctuations in their mental health. It is possible, however, that drastic changes in mental health may alter one’s coping styles, which deserves attention in future research. Duration of Effects of Distancing and Job Search on Mental Health As reviewed earlier, the relationship between coping and mental health is dynamic (Kinicki & Latack, 1990; McKee-Ryan et al., 2005). Our results revealed that the effect of distancing on mental health was identifiable after a three month lag, but not in six months. In contrast, only synchronous, but not lagged, effect of job search was found. The results support our prediction that the positive effect of distancing on mental health is more longlasting than the negative effect of job search. The pattern of results makes sense, according to Taylor’s (1991) conclusion that people are more active in reducing the impact of negative experiences than the impact of positive or neutral events. The rejection and other negative experiences during the process of job seeking will stimulate people to actively minimize the negative impact and duration of these experiences. On the contrary, the distancing strategy implies that unemployed people try to adapt to their current life, which is cushioned by the unemployment welfare benefits. Thus, the positive effect of distancing on mental health is relatively long-lasting because it decays naturally without any effortful intervention. The results shed some light on the issue of “true time lag”. Several scholars (e.g., De Lange, Taris, Kompier, Houtman, & Bongers, 2004; Taris, 2000) observed that most longitudinal studies pay little attention to an important issue, the appropriate time lag between a cause and an effect, which may cause biased results. If the time lag is too long, it is possible that the effect of a cause does not last long enough for its effect to be detected. If the time lag is too short, however, the predictors may have insufficient time to exert their influence on Coping and mental health 65 outcome variables. The present study has addressed the issue in the context of prolonged unemployment by having three waves of measurement, and suggested that coping effects do not last for six months. In the future, shorter durations, such as one to two months, should be examined to track the duration of the coping effects more precisely. Practical Implications Chronic unemployment is common among unemployed people. For instance, among the unemployed population, those with unemployment for more than 52 weeks amounted to 10% according to the data provided by the Bureau of Labour Statistics in US in 2006. In our study, less than 15% of unemployed individuals got reemployed during the study period. Obviously, prolonged unemployment is highly undesirable, but relevant research points to a worry that an active search for reemployment may subject chronically unemployed people to more rejection and frustration, thus damaging their already fragile mental health. However, the present study shows that job search per se does not exert a heavy toll on mental health, and that its negative impact is short-lasting. The results also show that perceived difficulties associated with unemployment, namely, economic hardship and unemployment negativity, contribute to the deterioration of mental health. Given that job search can improve the possibility of reemployment (e.g., Kinicki et al., 2000; Wanberg, 1997), it should be promoted. Social institutions that try to help unemployed people should motivate them to engage in job search, but our findings suggest that to reduce the small and fleeting negative impact of job search on mental health, these social institutions should find ways to reduce their unemployment negativity and economic hardship. Our findings show that distancing has a salutary effect on mental health, confirming the usefulness of this emotion-focused coping strategy for people to adapt to prolonged unemployment life. However, distancing does not help reemployment, and unemployed Coping and mental health 66 people may be trapped in unemployment if they only emotionally distance themselves from unemployment. Social institutions for helping the unemployed people need to find ways to drive people to actively seek for a job, such as providing training in interview skills and job training. In addition, for programs designed to help chronically unemployed people to seek reemployment to be effective, it is important to provide emotional support to help them overcome the transient stress associated with job search. Limitations and Suggestions for Further Research The limitations of the present research and potential topics for future research are discussed as follows. First, self-report measures used in the study may create the concern for the potential threat of common method variance. Fortunately, the use of a longitudinal design and the control of contemporaneous correlations in the assessment of time-lagged effects should have reduced the problem of common method variance drastically. Nonetheless, multiple data sources should be included in future research to minimize this problem. Second, some of the scales are short, and economic hardship and unemployment negativity were measured by single-item scales. Although they gave rise to meaningful results, future research should use longer and hence more reliable scales to replicate our findings. In addition, the use of time-limited retrospective coping reports may have some limitations (Folkman & Moskowitz, 2004; Todd, Tennen, Carney, Armeli, & Affleck, 2004), such as distortion caused by confounding factors. Future studies may use the method of daily reports to measure coping strategies more accurately. Third, the high attrition rate in the present research may be a problem. Although the problem of non-random sampling seems small, our findings need to be replicated with other samples to ensure their generalizability. Fourth, we conducted our research in a prolonged unemployment context, and our findings may not be generalizable to people who face short-term unemployment. Future research should contrast Coping and mental health 67 these two unemployment contexts. Finally, the research was conducted in Hong Kong, and it is desirable to evaluate the findings in different cultural contexts. We believe that the relationships studied involve basic processes that are less affected by cultural forces, and that a similar pattern of findings should emerge in diverse cultural contexts. However, we note that the positive effect of distancing on mental health seems to be more consistent in Chinese societies (Lai & Chan, 2002; Lai & Wong, 1998) than in the West (e.g., Kinicki et al., 1990). Perhaps the positive effect of distancing may be accentuated in cultures where the use of distancing and forbearance is acceptable, such as the Chinese culture (e.g., Lai & Chan, 2002; Philips & Pearson, 1996). More research is definitely needed to explore how national culture moderates the positive effect of distancing on mental health in an unemployment context. 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Wiesner, M. (2003). A longitudinal latent variable analysis of reciprocal relations between depressive symptoms and delinquency during adolescence. Journal of Abnormal Psychology, 112, 633-645. Zapf, D., Dormann, C., & Frese, M. (1996). Longitudinal studies in organizational stress research: A review of the literature with reference to methodological issues. Journal of Occupational Health Psychology, 1, 145-169. Coping and mental health 74 Footnote 1 We added five demographic variables (gender, age, length of unemployment, length of receipt of CSSA, and education level) to model II shown in Figure 3, and the results remained similar. The model fit was acceptable, 2 = 1539.90, df = 589, GFI =.91, CFI = .89, IFI = .89, RMSEA = .04. The path coefficients for the synchronous effects of job search were all negative and significant (Wave 1: Beta = -.38, p < .001; Wave 2: Beta = -.19, p < .001; Wave 3: Beta = -.23, p < .001), and the path coefficients for the cross-lagged effects of distancing were both positive and significant (both Beta = .12, p <.001). Coping and mental health 75 Table 1 Means, Standard Deviations, and Intercorrelations of Variables across the Three Waves Mean -42.53 2.59 SD -10.86 2.82 1 --.13** .09** 2 3 5 6 -.12** -- 1.51 1.88 .06 .04 .51** -- -2.85 -.83 .06 -.01 -.40** -.13** -.09** -.03 -.04 -.01 -.11** (.69) 7. Mental health T2 2.89 .77 -.02 -.13** .05 .03 .08* .50** 8. Mental health T3 2.91 .72 -.08* -.08* .03 .02 .04 .46** 9. Job search T1 3.47 .97 -.13** -.05 -.24** -.17** .08* -.17** 10. Job search T2 3.4 .85 -.05 -.02 -.16** -.16** .06 -.14** 11. Job search T3 3.41 .83 -.07* -.04 -.22** -.18** .06 -.09** 12. Distancing T1 2.91 .86 -.04 .00 -.03 -.02 .03 .07* 13. Distancing T2 3.00 .80 .02 .01 .04 .01 .03 .08* 14. Distancing T3 3.01 .75 -.01 .04 -.08* -.07* .02 .06 15. Economic hardship T1 16. Economic hardship T2 17. Economic hardship T3 18. Unemployment negativity T1 19. Unemployment negativity T2 20. Unemployment negativity T3 3.85 .80 -.01 .06 -.02 -.04 -.03 -.21** 3.74 .78 -.03 .02 .01 .00 .02 -.17** 3.73 .75 -.07* .02 .02 -.01 .00 -.15** 4.11 1.09 -.03 .03 -.14** -.13** -.05 -.38** 3.99 1.03 .01 .04 -.11** -.10** -.00 -.24** 3.93 .97 -.01 .01 -.15** -.12** -.01 -.25** a 1. Gender 2. Age 3. Length of unemployment 4. Length of receipt of CSSA 5. Education level b 6. Mental health T1 4 Coping and mental health 76 Table 1 (Continued) 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 1. Gender a 2. Age 3. Length of unemployment 4. Length of receipt of CSSA 5. Education level b 6. Mental health T1 7. Mental health T2 (.72) 8. Mental health T3 9. Job search T1 10. Job search T2 11. Job search T3 12. Distancing T1 13. Distancing T2 14. Distancing T3 15. Economic hardship T1 16. Economic hardship T2 17. Economic hardship T3 18. Unemployment negativity T1 19. Unemployment negativity T2 20. Unemployment negativity T3 .50** -.07* -.18** -.12** .09** .00 .04 -.17** (.72) -.11** -.13** -.21** .06 .08* -.03 -.12** .45** .37** .17** .05 .10** .14** .48** .07* .19** .14** .07* .07* .05 .27** .06 (.60) .19** .18** -.05 (.67) .30** -.10** (.71) -.08* -.25** -.18** .09** .10** .07* -.02 -.07* -.03 -.15** -.23** .07* .02 .10** -.02 -.08* -.06 -.27** -.22** .36** .21** .19** .03 -.09** -.03 -.39** -.25** .26** .31** .22** -.01 -.07* -.05 -.27** -.34** .21** .27** .41** .01 -.04 .02 Coping and mental health 77 Table 1 (Continued) 15 16 17 18 19 20 1. Gender a 2. Age 3. Length of unemployment 4. Length of receipt of CSSA 5. Education level b 6. Mental health T1 7. Mental health T2 8. Mental health T3 9. Job search T1 10. Job search T2 11. Job search T3 12. Distancing T1 13. Distancing T2 14. Distancing T3 15. Economic hardship T1 16. Economic hardship T2 17. Economic hardship T3 18. Unemployment negativity T1 19. Unemployment negativity T2 20. Unemployment negativity T3 .35** .29** .32** .22** .12** .08* .20** .28** .15** .37** .14** .14** .30** .28** .37** Note: * p<.05; ** p<.01. a nominal variable, 0-male, 1-female. b ordinal variable. The higher the score, the higher the education level. T1 – Time 1; T2 – Time 2; and T3 – Time 3. Coefficient alphas are given on the diagonal. Coping and mental health 78 Table 2 A Series of Models for Distancing, Job Search and Mental Health 2 df GFI CFI IFI RMSEA AIC Model Comparison △2 △ df Model I-0. Baseline model 1241.09 463 .92 .90 .90 .04 1437.09 Model I-1. Three-month lagged effects of distancing on 1231.31 461 .93 .90 .91 .04 1431.31 9.78** 2 mental health Model I-2. Three-month lagged effects of job search on 1240.73 461 .92 .90 .90 .04 1440.73 .36 2 mental health Model I-3. Three-month lagged effects of both distancing 1230.12 459 .93 .90 .91 .04 1434.12 10.97 4 and job search on mental health Model I-4. Three-month lagged effects of mental health 1236.11 461 .93 .90 .90 .04 1436.11 4.98 2 on distancing Model I-5. Three-month lagged effects of mental health 1238.39 461 .92 .90 .90 .04 1438.39 2.7 2 on job search Model I-6. Three-month lagged effects of mental health 1234.55 459 .93 .90 .90 .04 1438.55 6.54 4 on both distancing and job search Model I-7- Reciprocal model 1221.62 455 .93 .91 .91 .04 1433.62 19.47* 8 Model I-8. Six-month lagged effect of distancing on 1240.07 462 .92 .90 .90 .04 1438.07 1.02 1 mental health Model I-9. Six-month lagged effect of job search on 1237.77 462 .92 .90 .90 .04 1435.77 3.32 1 mental health Model I-10. Equivalence constraint of causal paths added 1231.94 462 .93 .90 .91 .04 1429.94 .63 1 to Model I-1 Model II. Synchronous effect of job search and 3-month 1378.26 465 .91 .89 .89 .05 1570.26 lagged effect of distancing on mental health Note. * p < .05; ** p <.01. For model comparison results, Model I-1 to Model I-9 were compared with Model I-0; Model I-10 was compared with Model I-1. Coping and mental health 79 Table 3 A Series of Models for the Effects of Situational Appraisals on Coping Strategies and Mental Health Model Comparison 2 Df GFI CFI IFI RMSEA AIC △2 △ df Model III-0. Baseline model 2453.58 671 .88 .81 .82 .053 1437.09 Model III-1. Effects of economic hardship and unemployment negativity on mental health Model III-2. Effects of economic hardship and unemployment negativity on distancing Model III-3. Effects of economic hardship and unemployment negativity on job search Model III-4. Effects of economic hardship and unemployment negativity on mental health, distancing, and job search 2190.87 665 .89 .84 .84 .049 2420.87 262.71** 6 2433.24 665 .88 .82 .82 .053 2663.24 20.34** 6 2046.50 665 .89 .86 .86 .047 2276.50 407.08** 6 1844.86 653 .90 .88 .88 .044 2098.86 608.72** 18 Note. * p < .05; ** p <.01. For model comparison results, Models III-1 to III-4 were compared with Model III-0. Coping and mental health 80 Figure Captions Figure 1. Baseline Model for Distancing, Job search and Mental Health. Figure 2. Different Structural Models for Testing Hypotheses 1-3 Figure 3. Path Coefficients of Model II for the Effects of Distancing and Job search on Mental Health. Figure 4. Different Structural Models for Testing Hypotheses 4-6b Figure 5. Path Model (Model III-4) for Distancing, Job search and Mental Health with the Inclusion of Economic Hardship and Unemployment Negativity Coping and mental health Figure 1. Baseline Model for Distancing, Job search and Mental Health. S11 S12 S21 D11 H12 H13 S31 Job Search Time 2 Job Search Time 1 H11 S22 H14 H15 H21 H22 H23 S32 Job Search Time 3 H24 H25 H31 H32 H33 Mental Health Time 1 Mental Health Time 2 Mental Health Time 3 Distancing Time 1 Distancing Time 2 Distancing Time 3 D12 D13 D14 D21 D22 D23 D24 D31 D32 D33 H34 D34 H35 81 Coping and mental health 82 Figure 2. Different Structural Models for Testing Hypotheses 1-3 Model I-0. Baseline model Model I-4. Three-month lagged effects of mental health on distancing Model I-8. Six-month lagged effect of distancing on mental health Model I-1. Three-month lagged effects of distancing on mental health Model I-5. Three-month lagged effects of mental health on job search Model I-9. Six-month lagged effect of job search on mental health Model I-2. Three-month lagged effects of job search on mental health Model I-6. Three-month lagged effects of mental health on both distancing and job search Model I-3. Three-month lagged effects of both distancing and job search on mental health Model I-7- reciprocal model Model II. Synchronous effect of job search and 3-month lagged effect of distancing on mental health Note. The first row of latent variables in each model pertains to job search, the middle row, mental health, and the bottom row, distancing. The first column of latent variables refers to time 1, the second column, time 2, and the third column, time 3. Coping and mental health Figure 3. Path Coefficients of Model II for the Effects of Distancing and Job search on Mental Health. Job Search Time 1 .61*** -.31.*** Mental Health Time 1 .08 Job Search Time 2 .64*** -.19*** .56*** .11*** Mental Health Time 2 Job Search Time 3 -.18*** .59*** Mental Health Time 3 -.21*** -.17*** .11*** Distancing Time 1 .21*** Note. * p <.05; ** p < .01. Distancing Time 2 .40*** Distancing Time 3 83 Coping and mental health 84 Figure 4. Different Structural Models for Testing Hypotheses 4-6b Model III-0. Baseline model Model III-3. Effects of economic hardship and unemployment negativity on job search Model III-1. Effects of economic hardship and unemployment negativity on mental health Model III-2. Effects of economic hardship and unemployment negativity on distancing Model III-4. Effects of economic hardship and unemployment negativity on mental health, distancing, and job search Note. The first row of variables in each model pertains to unemployment negativity, the second row, job search, the third row, mental health, the fourth row, distancing, and the bottom, economic hardship. The three columns for the squares and circles (not including disturbances), represent, from left to right, Time 1 to Time 3, respectively. Coping and mental health 85 Figure 5. Path Model (Model III-4) for Distancing, Job search and Mental Health with the Inclusion of Economic Hardship and Unemployment Negativity Unemployment Negativity Time 1 Unemployment Negativity Time 2 .36*** Unemployment Negativity Time 3 .36*** .27*** .43*** Job Search Time 1 .34*** Job Search Time 2 .47*** -.17*** -.25*** -.37*** -.08 Job Search Time 3 .50*** -.09* -.06 -.05 .06 Mental Health Time 1 .50*** .05 Mental Health Time 2 .54*** .07 Mental Health Time 3 .03 -.00 .06 .09*** Distancing Time 1 .21*** .09*** -.23*** Distancing Time 2 .39*** -.24*** Distancing Time 3 -.10*** -.14*** -.07 -.09** -.06 Economic Hardship Time 1 .33*** -.06 Economic Hardship Time 2 .31*** Economic Hardship Time 3 Note. * p < .05; ** p < .01. The correlation between economic hardship and unemployment negativity in Wave 1 and correlations between their disturbances in Waves 2 and 3 are included, but not shown for the sake of clarity. Dotted lines represent insignificant paths.