AMERICAN EMBASSY, TOKYO PUBLIC AFFAIRS SECTION OFFICE OF TRANSLATION AND MEDIA ANALYSIS INQUIRIES: 03-3224-5360 INTERNET E-MAIL ADDRESS: tokyoots@state.gov DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS March 28, 2002 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------INDEX: (1) Poll on Koizumi Cabinet, political parties (2) Poll: 29% refuse to vote for LDP (3) Chain of distrust (Part 1); Resignations from the LDP by two heavyweights and the political community thereafter; Lawmakers alarmed about losing source of political power (4) Chain of distrust (Part 2); Resignations from the LDP by two heavyweights and the political community thereafter; With prime minister's popularity dropping, ruling coalition again suffering from election-phobia (5) Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy reveals outline of arguing points about drastic reform of tax system; Priority to be given to tax cuts in order to revitalize economy; Financial resources to be secured through cuts in expenditures; Threestage implementation plan (6) Espionage for military intelligence; Key technology of missiles related to ontarget accuracy aimed at; Bold enough to have contacted dozen times in two and a half years (7) The direction of a country that always takes a conspiratorial view of history ARTICLES: (1) Poll on Koizumi Cabinet, political parties YOMIURI (Page 2) (Full) March 26, 2002 Q: Do you support the Koizumi Cabinet? (Feb.) Yes No Other answers (O/A) No answer (N/A) 50.6(53.0) 40.2(36.1) 1.9(2.8) 7.3(8.1) Q: Give up to two reasons for your approval of the Koizumi Cabinet. Its political stance can be appreciated 38.2 Its policy measures can be appreciated 12.7 It's stable 7.3 The prime minister is trustworthy 26.6 It's achieved actual results 9.4 Because it's a coalition government of the Liberal Democratic Party, New Komeito, and New Conservative Party 7.4 It's better than its predecessors 56.6 O/A 3.5 N/A 1.4 Q: Give up to two reasons for your disapproval of the Koizumi Cabinet. Its political stance can't be appreciated 35.3 Its policy measures can't be appreciated 32.1 It's unstable 23.5 The prime minister is untrustworthy 26.1 It's failed to achieve noticeable results 39.6 Because it's a coalition government of the Liberal Democratic Party, New Komeito, and New Conservative Party 9.6 It's worse than its predecessors 2.4 O/A 3.3 2 1.0 Q: What do you want the Koizumi Cabinet to pursue on a priority basis? Pick as many as you like from among those listed below. <Questions & Answers> (Figures shown in percentage.) N/A Stock prices and other economic boosting measures 42.3 Employment measures 49.4 Regain the nation's fiscal health 26.0 Write off bad loans 20.4 Scrap or privatize public corporations 18.7 Privatize the three government-run postal services 10.3 Tax reform 24.0 Social security reform 24.7 Educational reform 19.2 Political reform, political ethics 23.6 International contributions to Afghan reconstruction, etc. 5.0 Foreign affairs 12.7 Environmental protection 22.8 Crisis management 9.4 BSE (mad-cow disease) countermeasures13.5 O/A 0.2 Nothing in particular 6.3 N/A 1.2 Q: Do you think it possible for Prime Minister Koizumi to carry out his restructuring initiative? Greatly possible Somewhat possible Not very possible Impossible N/A 3.8 35.9 43.0 14.3 3.0 Q: Which political party do you currently support? (Feb.) Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) 31.0(33.2) Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ or Minshuto) 7.3(7.0) New Komeito (NK) 2.6(2.7) Liberal Party (LP or Jiyuto) 1.4(1.6) Japan Communist Party (JCP) 2.2(2.5) Social Democratic Party (SDP or Shaminto) 3.4(2.6) New Conservative Party (NCP or Hoshuto) 0.2(0.2) Independents Club (IC or Mushozoku no Kai) 0.1(0.3) Liberal Federation (LF or Jiyu Rengo) ---(0.2) Other political parties ---(0.1) None 50.7(48.7) N/A 1.2(0.8) <Polling methodology> Date of survey: March 23-24. Subjects of survey: 3,000 persons chosen from among all eligible voters throughout the country (at 250 locations, on a stratified two-stage random sampling basis). Method of implementation: Door-to-door visits for face-to-face interviews. Number of effective respondents: 1,935 persons (64.5%). Breakdown of respondents: Male—48%, female—52%. Q: (Only for those who answered "yes") Why? (multiple choices) The prime minister is trustworthy It's clean The prime minister has leadership Its policies are good 45(41) 28(28) 20(28) 19(24) Q: (Only for those who answered "no") Why? (multiple choices) The prime minister lacks leadership It's unstable Its policies are bad The prime minister is untrustworthy 52(32) 37(34) 37(32) 26(31) Q: What do you want the Koizumi Cabinet to pursue on a priority basis? (multiple choices) Economic recovery 68(65) Social security reform including pension and welfare systems 46(44) Employment 34(35) Fiscal turnaround 31(28) Administrative reform 29(27) (02032605im) Q: Which political party do you support or like now? (2) Poll: 29% refuse to vote for LDP NIHON KEIZAI (Page 2) (Extract) March 26, 2002 <Questions & Answers> (Figures shown in percentage. In parentheses denote the results of a survey conducted in February this year.) Q: Do you support the Koizumi Cabinet? Yes No Can't say (C/S) + don't know (D/K) 48(55) 39(34) 13(11) 3 Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) 41(48) Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ or Minshuto) 14(14) Social Democratic Party (SDP or Shaminto) 9(6) Japan Communist Party (JCP) 5(5) New Komeito (NK) 4(4) Liberal Party (LP or Jiyuto) 4(3) Other political parties 0(1) None 18(17) C/S + D/K 3(3) Q: What do you think about Dietmember Muneo Suzuki's resignation from the LDP? It's only natural It's unavoidable He didn't have to resign from the party C/S + D/K 76 19 3 2 Q: There are voices calling for Dietmember Suzuki's resignation from the Diet. What do you think about this? He should resign from the Diet 83 He does not have to resign from the Diet 13 C/S + D/K 4 Q: What do you think about Dietmember Koichi Kato's resignation from the LDP? It's only natural It's unavoidable He didn't have to resign from the party C/S + D/K 53 38 6 2 He should resign from the Diet 56 He does not have to resign from the Diet 37 C/S + D/K 6 LDP DPJ SDP JCP NK LP Other political parties Cast a blank vote Won't vote C/S + D/K LDP JCP NK SDP DPJ LP Other political parties C/S + D/K 29 25 11 5 4 1 0 22 Polling methodology: The poll was taken by Nikkei Research over the telephone on March 22-24. A total of 3,000 persons were sampled out of all males and females, aged 20 and up, across the nation. The rate of effective respondents was 59.4%. (3) Chain of distrust (Part 1); Resignations from the LDP by two heavyweights and the political community thereafter; Lawmakers alarmed about losing source of political power NIHON KEIZAI (Page 2) (Excerpt) March 21, 2002 Q: If there were a national election, which political party or which political party's candidate would you like to vote for? (02032606im) Q: There are voices calling for Dietmember Kato's resignation from the Diet. What do you think about this? Q: If there were a national election, which political party or which political party's candidate would you not like to vote for? 35 19 8 6 5 5 1 1 2 18 Scandals involving Muneo Suzuki and Koichi Kato have exposed cozy ties between lawmakers and bureaucrats as well as unclear fund flows that depict the age-old nature of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). Prime Minister Koizumi intends to reexamine back-scratching relationships between politicians and bureaucrats to reinvent the political system. His attempt is expected to meet with stiff resistance from the LDP. ***** 4 fundamental shift in the nature of their relationships with bureaucrats. Ambitious reform plan LDP executives met shortly after Kato publicly announced his resignation from the LDP on March 18. In the session, Prime Minister Koizumi urged other members to review what was called the Yasuoka report in cooperation with New Komeito and Hoshuto (New Conservative Party). But the LDP executives sniffed at Koizumi's suggestion. The Yasuoka report is a collection of political reform measures compiled by the National Strategic Headquarters under the leadership of Okiharu Yasuoka. The report called for three points: establishment of a solid Cabinet system under the strong leadership of the prime minister; elimination of bureaucracy; and putting an end to the practice of politicians acting on behalf of special interest groups. In essence, the report, modeling on the British parliamentary system, called for abolition of the practice of ruling parties screening Diet bills in advance as well as for restricting direct contacts between lawmakers and bureaucrats. A member described it as an ambitious reform plan. As soon as the report was produced on the late afternoon of March 13, Yasuoka called on Prime Minister Koizumi at his official residence. He wanted to show the original report to the prime minister before meeting with demanding requests from LDP executives. "Artless" As expected, LDP members resented the plan. Policy Research Council Chairman Taro Aso referred to it as "artless." New Komeito and Hoshuto, too, complained to Secretary General Taku Yamasaki about the LDP's failure to consult with them regarding the report that concerned the foundation of parliamentary democracy. The system of prior screening of bills that endows lawmakers with political authority in decision-making is their "source of power." Although the ruling camp ostensibly pointed out a "procedural failure," their real concern was a 5 Koizumi administration at watershed On the afternoon of March 20, Prime Minister Koizumi ordered Yamasaki and Yasuoka to conduct full-fledged discussion at the National Strategic Headquarters in the following week in order to reach a conclusion before the end of March. An observation is spreading that with his Cabinet approval rating nose-diving since the firing of Makiko Tanaka as foreign minister, Prime Minister Koizumi needs to bolster his popularity with a review of the relationship between lawmakers and government officials. Whether or not the prime minister can stick to his top-down approach is highly doubtful because reviewing such relationships is a matter that concerns every politician. "Five postwar decades have passed and metal fatigue is now obvious. A string of improprieties indicate that Japan is in serious need of major reforms. The Koizumi administration is now at the watershed," former prime minister Yasuhiro Nakasone said. (02032505st) (4) Chain of distrust (Part 2); Resignations from the LDP by two heavyweights and the political community thereafter; With prime minister's popularity dropping, ruling coalition again suffering from election-phobia NIHON KEIZAI (Page 2) (Excerpt) March 22, 2002 Late on March 19, administrative chiefs of factions in the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) met at a Japanese restaurant in Tokyo. In the session, many expressed acute concern about the seriousness of elections that start with the Yokohama mayoral election on March 31, followed by the Kyoto gubernatorial, Lower House 2nd district of Wakayama, and Upper House Niigata by-election. "The dropping Cabinet support rating really hurts." The LDP accomplished an overwhelming victory in the Upper House election last year. But the political climate has changed dramatically over the last eight months. There were ominous signs. An opinion poll conducted independently by the LDP in March generally showed favorable results for the LDP in Yokohama, Kyoto and Wakayama, but also indicated close races in some areas. Furthermore, in Niigata nearly 80 percent said "undecided." The poll clearly portrayed the picture of LDP candidates struggling to take the lead. Reportedly, the LDP is even considering replacing its candidate in Niigata. The support rating for the Koizumi Cabinet has plummeted from around 80 percent to nearly 50 percent after the prime minister fired Makiko Tanaka. The prime minister's popularity was further dampened by scores of scandals involving Koichi Kato and Muneo Suzuki. policy direction and take a vote on the resolution seeking Suzuki's resignation from the parliament at a Lower House plenary session. The prime minister's action came under fire in the LDP. Former foreign minister Yohei Kono, for instance, criticized Koizumi's abrupt order as an act hurting the unity of the LDP. "The prime minister wants to be a good guy among a bunch of bad guys, that's us. But such a strategy will not bring us a victory in the elections," another LDP executive fumed. Now that the prime minister's popularity is no longer dependable, the LDP is becoming increasingly critical of the premier – a classical symptom of "election-phobia." The Kyoto gubernatorial race was formally announced on March 21. The election campaign kicked off that day for the candidate supported by all political parties except the Japan Communist Party brought together the secretaries general of the three ruling parties. LDP Secretary General Yamasaki encouraged the candidate, saying, "You are a champion of structural reforms and that is in line with the Koizumi administration." New Komeito's Fuyushiba and Hoshuto's Nikai, however, did not touch on the prime minister. Anti-LDP image underlined Discord "Some people say that structural reforms have not been proceeding. But the Koizumi administration has yet to mark its first anniversary." In his talks with former U.S. treasury secretary Rubin on the afternoon of March 20, Prime Minister Koizumi expressed a sense of alarm amid the growing adverse wind. "Reform cannot be accomplished in a year. I need more time." Frustrated, Prime Minister Koizumi came up with the idea of reinventing himself as the "anti-LDP" premier in a bid to boost his popularity. With the upcoming elections also in mind, the prime minister urged Secretary General Taku Yamasaki to put an early end to the problems of Kato and Suzuki, who have already resigned from the LDP. Armed with the new strategy, the prime minister demanded that the ruling coalition shift its 6 Standing next to the three secretaries general, the eyes of former secretary general Hiromu Nonaka were cold. In addition to the declining popularity of Koizumi and the discord among the three ruling parties, a former town mayor, who was close to Nonaka, joined the Kyoto gubernatorial race against the LDP candidate. "Our camp is rocking," Nonaka spat out. There is this observation in the LDP: "If the LDP is defeated in the elections, that can be taken as a 'no' to Prime Minister Koizumi. And the party leadership might be forced to take responsibility." A call for a cabinet shuffle is still being heard. "I will have to endure the adverse wind for now," Prime Minister Koizumi said to himself late on March 20 after the ruling parties vetoed the resolution calling for Suzuki's resignation. The prime minister has yet to come up with any election strategy that can supplement his soggy popularity. (02032704st) (5) Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy reveals outline of arguing points about drastic reform of tax system; Priority to be given to tax cuts in order to revitalize economy; Financial resources to be secured through cuts in expenditures; Three-stage implementation plan NIHON KEIZAI (Top Play) (Slightly abridged) March 27, 2002 The government's Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy (CEF) on March 22 unveiled an outline of arguing points about a drastic reform of the tax system. The package is expected to be publicized at the end of the month. According to the outline, reform would be carried out, based on a three-stage implementation plan starting in fiscal 2003. For the first two years of the implementation plan, priority would be given to tax cuts, including a reduction in the gift tax, which is expected to lead to revitalizing the economy. Tax cuts would be financed with spending cuts and the sales of national property. No national bonds would be floated for this purpose. Another aim of efforts to compile a budget premised on the prioritized implementation of tax is to promote structural reforms through enhanced spending efficiency. The reform schedule for drastic reform of the tax system is linked as a set to the medium-term outlook for structural reforms, the economy and state finances, which the CEF formulated in January. The reform schedule covers the timeframe until the beginning of the 2010s. The approach is to facilitate reform of the tax system in three stages – revitalization – drastic reform of the system – fiscal reform. 7 To be concrete, the reform schedule will characterize the first two years starting in fiscal 2003 as an intensive coordination period for the Japanese economy and prioritize tax cuts during this period for the purpose of generating the vitality of individuals and companies. Given the situation of elderly people having an outstandingly large portion of financial assets, the package features expansion of the amount of exemption from the gift tax imposed on the lifetime gifting of home acquisition money. The aim is to boost the transfers of assets to the working generation. The package will also call for expansion of tax preferential measures that will lead to increased corporate investment in research and development activities and a revitalized securities market. Chances are that some of the proposals for tax cuts might be implemented before the end of fiscal 2002. Tax cuts would be financed with spending cuts and the sales of national assets. The CEF calculates that if fiscal resources squeezed out through efficient expenditures are used to finance tax cuts, the public will understand structural reforms more deeply. In the middle stage of the reform schedule, efforts would focus on consolidating and simplifying the tax system, including the lowering of the minimum amount of income subject to taxation. The scope of taxation would be widened in such areas as the income, corporate and inheritance taxes. In the meantime, the gradient of the curve of the current progressive income tax would be moderated to realize the base of a tax system that rewards efforts. A twodimensional income tax system of combining income from financial transactions and lowering taxes on such, by separating them from salaries, would also be introduced. Over the long term, from the perspective of making the nation's finances sound, the CEF will look into the possibility of hiking the consumption tax concurrently with reform of the social security system. The CEF will compile basic guidelines for reforming the tax system in June to reflect such in the compilation of a state budget and reform of the tax system for fiscal 2003. Many members of the government's Tax System Research Council (advisory organ to the prime minister), which is concurrently pursuing discussion of reform of the tax system, are critical of the idea of prioritizing tax cuts. It is, therefore, necessary for the government to unify views by June. The LDP's Tax System Research Commission, which virtually has the right to decide on reform of the tax system, is likely to start full-fledged discussion when proposals for reform of individual items come out. Sparrow missile. Such manuals are used to check whether gyroscope or gyrocompass [?] functions properly, being categorized as classified information essential for retaining the on-target accuracy. The Sparrow missile is one of the major weapons widely used by North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) members. It was developed in 1946 by the United States as an all-weather missile usable at night and in spite of bad weather. Later, technical innovation raised the level of the on-target accuracy of that missile. (02032705yk) (6) Espionage for military intelligence; Key technology of missiles related to on-target accuracy aimed at; Bold enough to have contacted dozen times in two and a half years SANKEI (Page 31) (Excerpts) March 23, 2002 A 43-year-old former member of the Russian Trade Representative Office in Japan, Shelkonogov, faces espionage charges for having sought confidential military information from the president of a defense equipment firm who formerly served as Air SelfDefense Force (ASDF) warrant officer. The military intelligence the Russian trade representative requested is highly suspected of information on flight control technology that decides on the on-target accuracy of the Sparrow missile – an air-to-air missile used by U.S. troops in the Gulf War. This missile is also installed in F15s. Informed sources revealed all these details on March 22. Japanese and U.S. defense officials were both shocked and perplexed to learn that their national interests had been threatened by espionage by the former trade representative who belonged to the Russian military's Main Intelligence Administration (GRU ), one of the mighty intelligence agencies on the globe. According to informed sources, the intelligence the Russian side sought to obtain was management manuals of measuring instruments related to flight control of the radar-guided intermediate-range 8 The management manuals consist of software such as for working process, and analytical devices and the like. They can precisely check the accuracy of measuring instruments related to flight control. The manuals are a kind of the crème of state-of-art technology. The company president, when he served as officer in the ASDF, was tasked with precise measurement of missiles. After retiring from the ASDF, he runs a sales company of defense-related equipment for the Defense Agency (JDA). Accordingly he has been in a position to access easily information on flight control of the Sparrow missile. Former trade representative Shelkonogov approached the company president in the summer of 1997, and since then he had contacted that president a dozen times downtown in Tokyo. At one time the two were bold enough to meet at a restaurant only 100 meters away from the Shibuya Police Station. Informed sources gave these comments: "Should Russia obtain technology that decides on the on-target accuracy of the [Sparrow] missile and be able to raise the level of missiles it posses, and also should Russia find out the weak points of [the Sparrow] missile, Russia could have a battle with the Western bloc in the way that will be advantageous to Russia. This may be the purpose of [espionage]" and "Give the widespread use of the Sparrow missile, should the weak points of its mechanism come to light, it would be a threat in strategic aspects." obtaining defense secret was proved to be involved in a criminal case. [Yosuke Osanai] Invoking of the Japan-U.S. secret protection law meet national interests of two countries In investigating into spying charges against a former official of the Russian Trade Representative Office in Japan for seeking military secrets, the Tokyo Metropolitan Police Department's (MPD) Public Security Division invoked the Japan-U.S. secret protection law (put in force in 1954) as the first espionage case covered by the law. The purpose of the Japan-U.S. secret protection law is to protect defense secret on equipment and information provided by the United States. Under the law, intelligence agents and their supporters who are collecting or leaking defense secrets for the purpose of harming Japan's security are both exposed. The law is featured by this punitive measure that plots, instigation and demagoguery are respectively subject to punishment. Public security authorizes have applied to the case "instigation for detection and collection" (Article 5). When the former ASDF warrant officer was questioned this January, public security authorities were unable to make it clear whether missile-related technological information the warrant officer tried to obtain is categorized as defense secret under the law. Consequently, consultations between [public security authorities] and the Tokyo District Public Prosecutors Office on the case hit a snag. At one point, an investigator stated, "The possibility of proving a criminal case is fifty-fifty." Later, however, public securities authorities, obtaining cooperation from the Defense Agency and the United States, proved the Russian representative's act to be a crime, a step that led them to move toward bringing out the truth of this espionage case. For now, only the documents pertaining to this spying case were submitted to the public prosecutors' office, but this exposure meets the national interests of Japan and the United States as the Russian official aiming at 9 "We have not heard" of involvement of SDF personnel on active service; JDA desperate in quieting down impact of scandal The Defense Agency (JDA) is desperately quieting down the impact of this scandal, with its leading official remarking, "For the present, we are watching how investigations will develop." Self-reflecting on the secret leakage scandal involving a Maritime SelfDefense Force (MSDF) lieutenant commander of 12 years ago, the JDA amended the Self-Defense Forces (SDF) Law last December by improving and strengthening the mechanism of not leaking defense secret. As a result, not only the JDA but also suppliers contracting with the JDA are both subject to punishment. The method of getting defense secret through a private firm "has never occurred in the past" (senior ASDFA official), though the scandal this time reveals that a former SDF personnel was involved in it. ASDF Chief of Staff Ikuo Tootake mentioned the former warrant office in question in a regular press conference on March 22 and stated, "We have yet to have a full picture of the case." Tootake reserved his answers to most questions posed there, but on the question of whether any one of the SDF personnel on active service was involved in the scandal," he denied it, saying, "I have not heard of such for now." Firms the JDA has so far contracted with during the past 10 years total 800. In this regard, a senior ASDF official noted: "Manufacturers of radar and missiles, for example, share information. In the case of leading firms, their leaking information is inconceivable because we cancel all business deals with them if such occurs, but in the case of small firms, it is difficult to check them." (02032605ku) (7) The direction of a country that always takes a conspiratorial view of history NIHON KEIZAI (Page 15) (Full) March 21, 2002 There is an unfair trick that must not be used by persons who consider themselves intellectuals. That device is to take a conspiratorial view of history. Such persons argue vehemently that "what is wrong in the world is so and so's fault," and they use the logic that "if only that bad person were gone, things in the world would get better." Such arguments are easy to understand and, like a morality play, is an effective method of appealing to people. Conspiracy theories suddenly spring up without a trace of any cool-headed analysis having been done beforehand. They plant the seed of hate in people's minds and make people believe, by ignoring the complexities of the world around us, that the future will be wonderful if we can only punish the bad guys. Efforts must be made to overcome such a tendency to see conspiracies, if policy debates are to make progress, but the attractiveness of conspiracy theories can cloud people's minds at any time. If an intellectual stumble across a conspiracy theory, efforts should be made to counter it by verifying what is the truth. One must prove by listing the facts the fallacy of a conspiracy theory that this world is being controlled by the absolute will of a small group of people. Indeed, it was through such efforts that modern science could be championed. If that had not been possible, we would still be under an ancient primitive religion that required virgin sacrifices to appease the gods. However, in Japan, the same old kind of conspiratorial theories are immensely popular. Delve beneath the surface of self-styled intellectuals and you find them full of lies. As a result of the tardiness in Japan of disposing of non-performing loans, people are still looking for human sacrifices, going out of their way to point the finger at someone for being responsible for the worsening economy or financial situation. It has become a veritable witchhunt. 10 The most recent target has been foreign capital. According to a briefing paper used by a senior official of a responsible agency to persuade members of the Diet at Nagata-cho, foreign firms are supposedly the root cause of the various evils by their short-selling of stocks. The document includes such parts as: Since "many foreign firms are thinking of withdrawing from Tokyo, there is a great possibility of them running out without paying for what they've eaten," and so, "depending on the case, we need to think of punishing such, targeting the company officers themselves and not the securities firm." What one can visualize by this are traders who are being threatened now hurriedly buying back shortsale positions. The paper argues that the short-selling of stocks by foreign companies has kindled the financial crisis. That is because "the Tokyo branches of foreign firms employ at each location 100 – 150 financial experts, whose salaries annually exceed 100 million yen, and if there are no new non-performing loans to use as material [for business], they will not be able to maintain those personnel." The argument is nonsense. This is the kind of brain drivel that we find coming out of the pinnacle of our country's elite bureaucracy. It may feel good to detest foreign firms but by jumping on that bandwagon, we forget to pursue the real problem areas. More and more, Japan seems to have reached the end of the line. (02032703bb)