Spots N Dots
The Daily News Of TV Sales
February 16, 2016
TV ON COMEBACK TRAIL IN FOURTH QUARTER
ANALYST: ‘TV STILL UTTERLY DOMINATES’
Defying the notion in some circles that television is in a permanent decline, analyst
Brian Wieser at Pivotal Research Group says TV had a great fourth quarter, up 6-7%. He
sees growth continuing in 2016, albeit at closer to low single-digits.
Now that the most owners of national TV properties have reported their calendar Q4 of
2015 earnings, Wieser says it appears that they will end up with growth in advertising revenues
of around 6-7% for the quarter and 1-2% for full year 2015 on an unadjusted basis (exincremental Olympics activity in 2014). “Considering that total normalized (ex-Olympics and
political) advertising is likely to come in for the full year in the +2-3% range, this pace of growth
broadly reflects what we think is a gradual erosion of growth for national TV, but far from the fullon doom-and-gloom that has emanated from virtually every corner of Wall Street and much of
the industry over the past two years,” the analyst wrote in a research report. With conditions
strong in the first quarter, he says national TV looks likely to fare at least as well in 2016 as it did
in 2015.
“These results reinforce our view that changes in viewing and ratings have only a limited
effect on ad spending. Demand is mostly independent of supply, although networks with
relatively more supply are better-positioned to capture demand. We believe this is because for
advertisers, ad budget decisions focus on least-bad alternatives,” he explained. For those
seeking broad reach, sight-sound-and-motion and brand awareness, Wieser says “traditional TV
still utterly dominates all alternatives despite the growth of digital media owners and increasing
consumption of video on Internet-connected devices.” He adds that this advantage will hold for
many years.
“Digital media owners such as Facebook can offer reach and frequency, but in lieu of
spending on content which brands will want to align their products with, mere reach and
frequency won’t do,” the analyst wrote.
“We believe the most important driver of growth for TV advertising is the economy’s
creation of brands who are self-referential with peers, differentiate themselves on the basis of
awareness of attributes, and manage budgets on a national basis. The super-nova of spending
that was DraftKings and FanDuel was illustrative of this trend and, despite the woes both
companies face, should have proven to many doubters that television works,” Wieser told
clients. He expects a good upfront, with low single digit volume growth and high single digit
pricing, but also warns of recession possibilities.
ADVERTISER NEWS
Same-store sales were down for the restaurant industry in January according to The
Restaurant Industry Snapshot, the first month with negative comps since February, 2015. While
the overall drop of 0.8% was mostly attributed to the weather, results from some non-weather
impacted areas were also soft. Still, compared to January, 2014, comps were up
5.3%......Penske Automotive Group reported on its fourth quarter with same-store new vehicle
sales up 2.5% and same-store used vehicle sales up 2.3%. One potentially troubling note: the
average transaction price slipped by 0.8% to $40,418…..Group 1 sold 4.7% more new vehicles
and 9% more used vehicles than in the prior year, but overall profit was down and it’s citing
tighter margins on new vehicles—especially luxury brands—as part of the bottom-line decline. It
CEO says Group 1 will “right-size” its inventory of luxury brands, a move similar to what
AutoNation announced earlier……In the auto aftermarket business, O’Reilly Automotive
reported its 23rd consecutive year of same-store growth with comp increases over 7% in all four
quarters. O’Reilly operated 4,571 stores as of 12/31, but will add more than 200 new locations
this year……Results weren’t as good at competitor Advance Auto Parts with same-store sales
down 2.5% and profit down 35%......Reuters reports Kroger is one of the entities actively
bidding to acquire Fresh Market (which had previously announced a “strategic review”) and its
183 stores. Kroger’s competition appears to be at least three private equity groups……After
several years of declining cereal sales, Kellogg now projects that part of its business will start
to rise this year as it makes changes to fit customers’ changing demands. Its U.S. morning
foods division was up 1.5% in the latest quarter and the CEO says “The key is to have great
food that’s on trend. Where we have that, we’re growing strongly”……January was a rough
month for CE dealers according to This Week In Consumer Electronics, which reports
Commerce Department figures show CE and appliance sales were down 4.2%. A large part of
that may be attributable to a late Super Bowl, which always drives sales of large-screen
TVs……PepsiCo North America revenue was up in the fourth quarter due to better pricing and
the AP notes changes in packaging such as smaller bags of snacks and soda in glass bottles
have helped drive up margins. “There’s no point trying to drop the pricing,” Pepsi’s CEO said.
“It’s not going to drive additional demand”……Molson Coors sales were down 3.5% (excluding
currency impact) in the fourth quarter; one bright spot was a 0.8% volume increase from Coors
Light.
NETWORK NEWS
The Price is Right, network television's #1-rated daytime series and the longest-running
game show in television history, is headed to CBS primetime with three reality show themed
specials to air later this year. The episodes, hosted by Drew Carey, will each celebrate one of
the network’s reality series: The Amazing Race, Survivor and Big Brother. In each primetime
special, former racers, castaways and houseguests will partner with and play alongside super
fans of their respective shows……Days of our Lives, which recently celebrated its 50th
anniversary, has been renewed for a new season by NBC. So far this season, the daytime
drama is averaging a 0.90 rating, 6 share in women 18-49 and 2.901 million viewers overall in
“most current” ratings from Nielsen……Cate Blanchett, Common, Russell Crowe, Louis
Gossett, Jr., Eddie Redmayne and Sofia Vergara are among the latest presenters announced
for the 88th Oscars. The awards show, hosted by Chris Rock, will air live Sunday, February 28,
at 7:00 pm (ET) on ABC.
WEEKEND RATINGS
The Republican Debate on CBS beat NASCAR 2016 on FOX Saturday night, as
everyone else aired reruns. The Nielsen overnights put CBS at a primetime average 1.6 in
Adults 18-49 and 5.7 in Households, with an average 9.315 million viewers. FOX was at 1.0 1849, 2.6 HH and 4.438 million; NBC 0.8 18-49, 2.7 HH and 4.000 million; and ABC 0.3 18-49, 1.1
HH and 1.685 million.
The Tonight Show Valentine’s Day Special gave NBC the Sunday demo win, with a
1.2 18-49, 2.8 HH and 4.617 million viewers. CBS had the most viewers, led by 60 Minutes,
scoring a 1.1 18-49, 5.4 HH and 8.610 million; ABC, with The Bachelor at 20 special, 1.0 1849, 2.8 HH and 4.523 million; and FOX 0.9 18-49, 1.2 HH and 2.117 million.
COMPETITIVE INFO
Bidders are lining up for the bankruptcy court auction of the Orange County Register,
which is scheduled for next month with a couple of rounds of bidding. Publishers Daily reports
that Tribune Publishing, which owns the Los Angeles Times, will be, as expected, the “stalking
horse” bidder—with its offer setting the minimum for other bidders. As of yet, the amount of
Tribune’s bid is not public. The report says Digital First Media, owner of the Los Angeles Daily
News, has also submitted a bid, but was not selected as the stalking horse. A local investor
group led by OC Register publisher Rich Mirman also plans to bid. Mirman is CEO of the
current iteration of Freedom Communications, which filed bankruptcy in November. The
bankruptcy auction also includes the Press Enterprise of Riverside, CA. An earlier version of
Freedom Communications sold off its TV stations and other newspapers several years ago.
VOTERS BYPASS NEWSPAPERS
It’s no surprise that social media is coming on strong as a source that voters are relying
on for information this election year. Even so, the Pew Research Center finds that television is
still far and away the #1 place that people go to for information about the 2016 presidential
election. Cable TV news is the top source at 24%. Add in Local TV at 14%, Network nightly
news 10% and TV’s Late night comedy shows 3% and you come up with a total of 51% for
all types of television.
Social media tied with Local TV at 14% and News websites and apps were cited by
13%, with Radio at 11%.
Who’s pretty much fallen out of the picture? Newspapers. Of the voters in the Pew
survey, only 3% said they found their Local paper in print as the “most helpful” source for
presidential election information and 2% cited a National paper.
The youngest voters, 18-29, were the most online-focused in finding their election
information. 35% cites Social media as the most helpful source, with News websites and apps
at 18%. Those online sources were followed by Cable TV news at 12%, Radio 11% and Local
TV 10%.
Cable TV news moved to the top for all other age categories. For respondents 30-49 it
was followed in order by News websites and apps, Social media, Local TV and Radio. For 5064 Local TV was second, followed by Network nightly news, Radio and News websites and
apps. Network nightly news claimed the #2 slot behind Cable TV news for the 65+ group,
followed by Local TV, Local paper in print and News websites and apps.
PRIVATE BRANDS HELP RETAILERS
A new study from global retail strategy advisor Daymon Worldwide shows that a robust
private brand program can drive consumers to make a special store trip and results in higher
retailer loyalty and satisfaction. According to the study, 36% of consumers are likely to make a
special trip to buy their primary retailer’s private brands. As a result, these consumers indicate
that they are more satisfied and loyal to the store, are more likely to make future shopping trips,
would recommend the store to their friends/family, feel positive about the value they get for their
money, and prefer the store overall.
“Our study reinforces a growing industry reality that private brands are gaining power as
a must-have for success,” said Virginia Morris, Daymon Worldwide’s Vice President, Global
Consumer and Innovation Strategy. She notes increasing consumer apathy toward national
brands, which makes private brands more important for retailers. “The time is now for retailers
with existing private brands to leverage them to differentiate, drive affinity, keep shoppers
coming back for more and attract new shoppers,” she says, adding that retailers without a
private brand program need to invest in one now.
ACCOUNT ACTIONS
Cox Automotive named independent Zambezi, Los Angeles, lead creative agency for
its Auto Trader and Kelley Blue Book brands……The Indianapolis Business Journal reports
that the WNBA Indiana Fever has signed a deal with Benchwarmers Marketing, Indianapolis,
for the 2016 season after one year with another local firm, KH Complete Advertising. The IBJ
notes that attendance for the team’s home games dropped 5.3% last year……FirstLight
HomeCare has selected Marcus Thomas LLC, Cleveland, as its advertising agency of record
after a nationwide search. FirstLight is a nonmedical in-home care provider operating in 30
states.
THIS AND THAT
Nissan unveiled its new “standard” Titan pickup at the Chicago Auto Show. The half-ton
model will compete in the heart of the full-size pickup segment, while the recently introduced
Titan XD is more heavy duty. The regular Titan will be built on a separate chassis from the Titan
XD and assembled at Nissan’s Canton, MS plant. It will be at dealers this summer……AT&T
has launched a mobile entertainment project with 10 digital creators called AT&T Hello Lab.
The 10 are drawn from YouTube and social media in an AT&T collaboration with
FullScreen……Google says it will not be a bidder in the FCC’s upcoming incentive auction to
reallocate TV spectrum to wireless broadband.
DONE DEALS
Raycom Media announced several executive promotions. Lec Coble has been
promoted to Vice President of Broadcast Marketing, and Jamie Sawyer has been promoted to
Vice President of Digital Marketing. They will work closely with the 62 Raycom Media owned or
operated stations to craft cross-platform marketing strategies. Henry Yates has been promoted
to Vice President of Digital Revenue. He will work with Raycom Media’s owned or operated
stations to continuously improve their end-to-end local digital marketing solutions.
AVAILS
WHNS-TV/FOX Carolina in Greenville, SC is searching for a General Sales Manager who is a
strong team leader. This is an incredible opportunity to work and live in an award winning region
for both livability and business. The ideal candidate must have a strong background in New
Business Development and Inventory Management. Proficiency in recruiting, developing and
motivating a sales staff is a must. A minimum of 5 years of local television experience with an
understanding of national business required. APPLY HERE. EOE.
WAXN TV 64 – Cox Media Group Television Station in Charlotte, NC (Market #22) seeks a
Local Account Executive. We’re looking for passionate sellers that want to WIN. The ideal
candidate will be a sales professional with 1-4 years of media sales experience. The candidate
will be responsible for prospecting and selling new business, as well as our vast digital portfolio,
and growing a transactional list. Interested? Please contact Mark Afshar, LSM, 704.371.3120,
mark.afshar@waxntv64.com. EOE
Comcast Spotlight seeks a Regional Director of Research, who will be responsible for
overseeing the Washington DC DMA as well as oversight of Baltimore, the Maryland Eastern
Shore, and Southern Virginia. This person will be responsible for providing leadership and
direction for team and for gathering, analyzing, and interpreting information about the market.
This role provides leadership and direction for diverse and complex functions at a corporate,
regional, and divisional level. CLICK HERE for more information or to apply now. Comcast is an
EOE/Veterans/Disabled/LGBT employer.
Raycom Media is seeking a VP/GM for WCSC, its dominant CBS affiliate in the beautiful and
vibrant Charleston, SC market. This is a tremendous opportunity for a dynamic leader with
contemporary experience in developing local news and branded content for broadcast and
digital audiences. Applicant must also have experience in developing market leading broadcast
and digital revenue strategies. Competitive compensation/benefits. Submit your resume and
salary requirements with your application online. No phone calls please. To apply, please visit
www.raycommedia.com/careers. EOE-M/F/D/V.
General Manager: A small privately-held broadcast company is looking for the right person to
operate its television station in the shadow of the Rocky Mountains. The GM will oversee all
departments, including news, but is also directly responsible for sales department management.
Our right candidate will be an experienced GM who likes to be actively involved in sales, or a
broadcast sales manager looking to move into his/her first general manager role. Send cover
letter, resume and salary requirements in confidence to tvgmcandidates@gmail.com. EOE.
WKMG-TV, Orlando FL seeking motivated General Sales Manager to lead day-to-day sales
and marketing activities including WKMG, clickorlando.com and the station’s digital properties.
The right candidate must understand the importance of long range planning and strategy.
Appreciate and understand digital media and its prominent role in cross platform selling. Have
experience with recruiting exceptional sellers, coaching and leading team members to
consistently grow market share and new revenue streams. CLICK HERE for more details. Send
resume to: wkmggm@wkmg.com. EOE
WAVY-TV (NBC) and WVBT-TV (FOX) in Norfolk, VA seeks a results-driven Account
Executive. This experienced sales professional needs a winning attitude and desire to
succeed! Managing agency business, new business generation, client relationship-building,
proposal preparation and presentation to a diverse customer base. Excellent communication,
customer service, and time management skills; a people-person responsible for developing
large-scale new business clients and growing digital revenue! Minimum 2 years media sales
experience. No calls please. CLICK HERE to apply. EOE/M/F/V/D
According to a poll of Harry Potter fans, the most popular spell is ‘expecto patronum.’
Incidentally, that is also the spell Maury Povich uses to determine whether or not you’re the
father.
--Seth Meyers
Adidas is offering $1 million to any NFL prospect that can break the record for the 40-yard-dash.
The current NFL record for the 40-yard-dash is Cam Newton leaving a press conference.
--Conan O’Brien
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SPOTS N DOTS
The Daily News Of TV Sales
February 16, 2016
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