STT 201 STATISTICAL METHODS SUMMER 2015 SYLLABUS INSTRUCTOR INFORMATION NAMES: OFFICE: TEL. NO E-mail: Dr. Elijah DIKONG C501 Wells Hall, 884 - 1486 dikonge@msu.edu OFFICE HOURS: MW: 03:00 p.m.. - 04:00 p.m. and Th: 01:00 – 02:-00 p.m. or by appointment Laboratory Instructors: Name Section s E-mail Phone Office Office hours Karim, Rejaul 101 karimrej@msu.edu 8841923 C410 Wells Tuesdays and Thursdays: 12:20 p.m. – 1:50 p.m. Karim, Rejaul 101 karimrej@msu.edu 8841923 C410 Wells Tuesdays and Thursdays: 12:20 p.m. – 1:50 p.m. Help Room: Statistics Help Room A102 Wells Hall is staffed for certain hours of the week with teaching assistants to give walk-in help. See Help Room schedule posted on www.stt.msu.edu Course Web Sites: http://www.stt.msu.edu [main website] and http://msu.lon-capa.org/ will provide course information. Course Description: Probability and Statistics with computer applications. Data analysis, probability models, random variables, tests of hypotheses, confidence intervals, linear regression, weekly labs using statistical software. LECTURES: MW F 12:40 p.m. – 2:30 p.m. @ 316 EBH [316 Ernst Bessey Hall] Laboratory: All laboratory meetings of the class are in B102 WH Section 101 DAYS: Tuesdays and TIME: 10:20 a.m. – 12:10 p.m. Thursdays Section 101 DAYS: Tuesdays and TIME: 10:20 a.m. – 12:10 p.m. Thursdays Text: Mind On Statistics: Special Custom Edition for Michigan State University by Jessica M.UTTS/Robert F.HECKARD Attendance: You are expected to attend all meetings of the class. If you must miss a class, plan to get notes for that day from a classmate. Be advised that schedule on page 4 is tentative. Lecture: The lectures are used to present basic ideas. STT 201 is a survey course of the most practical and commonly encountered statistical concepts and methods. The course is taught at an elementary mathematical level (college algebra). The textbook will be followed fairly closely. The course is divided into four units as follows: Unit 1: Chapters 1-4 FOLLOWED BY MIDTERM EXAMINATION 1 Unit 2: Chapters 7 – 9 FOLLOWED BY MIDTERM EXAMINATION 2 Unit 3: Chapters 10 – 11 Unit 4: Chapters 12 – 13 FOLLOWED BY FINAL EXAMINATION Each MID-TERM EXAMINATION is worth 150 points. All TWO MIDTERM examinations count toward course total. Laboratory: The laboratory instructor directs Tuesday and Thursday laboratory sections. Students will be using the statistical package Minitab, release 15, which is installed on the computers in and B102 Wells Halls, as well as computers in all computer labs on campus. Students are required to become familiar with the basic commands of Minitab in order to access, store, create and analyze data. There will be 10 laboratory assignments each worth 20 points. A laboratory assignment is handed out at the beginning of each of 11 labs and posted on the class website. To facilitate start up directions, please arrive at your lab on time. The computer work can be completed during the laboratory meeting and submitted at the end of each laboratory meeting. Three (3) points will be deducted for any late submission past the due submission time and 4 points each 24 hours past due date. Any late work must be submitted directly to Professor Dikong and not the laboratory instructor. Note: All examinations including the comprehensive final examination are multiplechoice and are "closed book" and "closed notes". The examinations will contain questions concerning text material and problems, classroom examples and discussions, and the use of Minitab. Missing an exam without an advance valid excuse presented to the instructor will result in a score of 0 points. Persons who must miss an exam because of medical or family emergency or other exceptional circumstances should present a valid excuse to Dr. Dikong, in advance of the examination whenever possible. There will be no excused laboratories. All students are expected to adhere to the University policy on academic integrity. It is covered in the Spartan Life booklet under General Student Regulations. For more information about this, please consult the handbook or visit the Spartan Life web sites at http://www.vps.msu.edu/SpLife/ . Evaluation: Points are earned through two mid-term examinations (300 points), final examination (200 points), ten laboratory projects (200 points). POINTS TOWARD GRADE: Source Maximum Points 300 200 200 700 2 mid-term examinations Laboratory projects (10) Final Examination Total Your total number of points will be converted into a percentage and your grade will be determined by the following grading scale: Numeric Grade Point Range Percentage (%) 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.0 630 – 700 595 – 629 553 – 594 511 – 552 455 – 510 420 – 454 385 – 419 000 – 384 90% - 100% 85% - 89.9% 79% - 84.9% 73% - 78.9% 65% - 72.9% 60% - 64.9% 55% - 59.9% 0.0% - 54.9% Disclaimer: The instructor reserves the right to make any changes he considers academically advisable. Changes will be announced in class and posted on the https://msu.lon-capa.org course website and also on www.stt.msu.edu website. It is your responsibility to keep up with any changed policies. IMPORTANT DATES: 05/18/2015 05/22/2015 05/25/2015 06/10/2015 07/01/2015 07/01/2015 First day of classes Open Adds ends Memorial Day – University Closed Middle of Summer A; Last Day to drop with no grade LAST DAY OF CLASSES FINAL EXAMINATION Suggested Exercises: We have selected some exercises from the textbook that illustrate some of the ideas presented in class. Your solutions to these problems will not be collected or graded. The answers to these exercises are found in the textbook, and your solutions will not be collected or graded. If you encounter difficulty or are slow in solving problems, you should re-study the material, seek help (at A102 Wells Building or visit me during my office hours), and do additional exercises to improve your mastery of the concepts and methods. The textbook uses this terminology for its exercises: Exercise 3.13 refers to exercise 3.13 of Chapter 3, found on page 102; Exercise 8.27 refers to exercise 8.27 of Chapter 8, found on page 308. These are among the suggested exercises listed below. Chapter 1: 1.5, 1.11 Chapter 2: 2.1, 2.3, 2.5, 2.13, 2.17, 2.27, 2.29, 2.37, 2.39, 2.45, 2.51, 2.57, 2.63, 2.85, 2.87, 2.91, 2.93, 2.103 Chapter 3: 3.1, 3.3, 3.7, 3.13, 3.19, 3.37, 3.39, 3.43, 3.61, 3.63, 3.65, 3.81 Chapter 4: 4.1, 4.3, 4.5, 4.7, 4.15, 4.17, 4.19, 4.21 Chapter 7: 7.8, 7.9, 7.21, 7.23, 7.25, 7.29, 7.39, 7.41, 7.45, 7.47, 7.57, 7.59, 7.95, 7.105 Chapter 8: 8.1, 8.3, 8.9, 8.11, 8.13, 8.15, 8.25, 8.27, 8.29, 8.31, 8.39, 8.43, 8.45, 8.47, 8.51, 8.53, 8.63, 8.67, 8.69, 8.71, 8.77, 8.91, 8.92 Chapter 9: 9.1, 9.9, 9.13, 9.15, 9.23, 9.37, 9.39, 9.41, 9.47, 9.55, 9.59, 9.61, 9.69, 9.113 Chapter 10: 10.5, 10.7, 10.11, 10.15, 10.19, 10.21, 10.23, 10.35, 10.45, 10.57, 10.63 Chapter 11: 11.3, 11.5, 11.11, 11.13, 11.25, 11.27, 11.43, 11.51, 11.53, 11.83 Chapter 12: 12.3, 12.7, 12.21, 12.49, 12.51, 12.55, 12.63, 12.83 Chapter 13: 13.9, 13.17, 13.23, 13.25, 13.35, 13.39, 13.49, 13.59 In addition to the above exercises, practice review problems directly related to midterm examinations will be posted on the website www.stt.msu.edu and on LON_CAPA Tentative Schedule: Week of Monday Wednesday Friday Lab MAY 18 Lecture, discussion Chapters 1 and 2 Lecture, discussion Chapters 2 and 3 Lecture, discussion Chapters 3 Labs 1 and 2 MAY 25 Memorial Day – University closed Lecture, discussion Chapter 3 Labs 3 and 4 JUNE 01 Midterm Exam 1 Lecture, discussion Chapters 7 and 8 Lecture, discussion Chapter 4 + Midterm Exam 1 Review Lecture, discussion Chapters 7 and 8 JUNE 08 Lecture, discussion Chapter 9 Lecture, discussion Chapter 9 Lab 7 and 8 JUNE 15 Midterm Exam 2 Lecture, discussion Chapter 10 Lecture, discussion Chapter 9 + Review Midterm Exam 2 Lecture, discussion Chapter 10 JUNE 22 Lecture, discussion Chapter 11 Lecture, discussion Chapter 13 + Final Exam Revision Lecture, discussion Chapter 12 FINAL EXAMINATION JUNE 29 Lecture, discussion Chapter 13 Lab 5 and 6 Labs 9 and 10 No Lab No Lab Advice for Students: DON’T FALL BEHIND!! This class moves at a rapid pace. Come to class and recitation prepared. o Read the chapter before lecture. o Reread the chapter after lecture to see if you have follow up questions. o Do the suggested exercises before recitation and come prepared with questions. Form a study group. Learn how to use your calculator. Keep a notebook of vocabulary. Keep a list of reference examples. Get help if you need it- from the professor, teaching assistant of the Statistics Help Room. ATTENDANCE: You are expected to attend all meetings (laboratories/lectures) of the class. If you miss a class for whatever reason, you are responsible for all materials, assignments, and deadlines missed. While office hours provide an opportunity for further clarification of materials covered in class, they will not substitute for classes. ACADEMIC HONESTY: The Department of Statistics and Probability adheres to the policies of academic honesty as specified in the General Student Regulations 1.0, Protection of Scholarships and Grades, and in the All-University of Integrity of scholarship and Grades which are included in Spartan Life: Student Handbook and Resource Guide. Students who plagiarize will receive a grade 0.0 on the assignment, test or quiz. ADA: To arrange for accommodation a student should contact the Resource Center for People with Disabilities (353-9642) http://www.rcpd.msu.edu/ LECTURE NOTES: Please visit the class website http://www.stt.msu.edu or https://msu.lon-capa.org before each class meeting. Print out the summary of the next lecture and the corresponding class-work, and bring them to class. On the class website you will also find the syllabus, mid-term review exercises, laboratory assignments with their due dates, updated course outline, and other pertinent information. EXTRA CREDIT POLICY: Every week I will assign three or more exercises on chapters discussed the previous weeks as extra credit exercises. These exercises are not mandatory. Unannounced quizzes, attendance (taken at random days), office visits, will all account for the total extra-credit points you earn. TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THIS POLICY TO CONTINUALLY CURVE YOUR CLASS GRADE THROUGHOUT THE SEMESTER. MORE ON STUDENT CONDUCT The instructor has the responsibility to teach. Students have the right to learn. Everyone needs to be respectful of the rights of other people in the class. Please avoid frequent tardiness. Arriving late and/or leaving early is not acceptable. Disruptive behavior which impedes the teaching/learning process will not be tolerated – use of cell phones, audio devices (except tape recorders used to record), and abusive language are prohibited. Discussion is encouraged in my classroom. However, please be respectful when the instructor or other students are speaking: listen attentively, disagree politely, and at all times avoid ridiculing others. Finding mistakes in my lectures is, however, encouraged, and is part of the fun. Talking or whispering during lectures or presentations is not acceptable. MSU policies regarding harassment will be enforced. Class lasts entire period. Do not begin packing up or repeatedly checking the clock (indicating your impatience) before class is dismissed. Any form of cheating is considered a serious offense and will be dealt with according to MSU guidelines. All persons involved are considered responsible, including the person from whom others copy. Thus it is your responsibility to place your materials in such a way that others will not have an opportunity to copy them. You may be asked to sit in specific seats so as to spread out exams takers. CLASS SURVEYS There will be ONE in-class survey and ONE online survey that are mandatory for each student to participate in. DESCRIPTION OF CHAPTERS CHAPTER 1: What Is Statistics? Introductory Video Case Study Illustration: Does Aspirin Reduce Heart Attack Rates? Types of Statistics (Descriptive and Inferential) Chapter 2: Descriptive Statistics Some Relevant Statistical Terminologies (data, raw datasets, observations, population versus sample, parameters versus statistics, variables, categorical, quantitative, ordinal variables, explanatory and response variables, outliers) Numerical Summaries of Quantitative Data (Measures of Central Location – mean, median; Measures of Variability or Spread – Range, Standard Deviation, Inter-quartile Range; Measures of Position – Maximum, Minimum, Quartiles) Effects of outliers on measures of center and spread Displaying Quantitative Data (Boxplots, Histograms, Stem-and-leaf Displays, Dot-plots) Describing the distribution of a quantitative variable Displaying Categorical Data (Bar charts, Pie charts) Chapter 3: Linear Relationships between Quantitative Two Variables Scatterplots, positive association, negative association, line of best fit, correlation coefficient, coefficient of determination, residuals, influence of outliers on regression and correlation Chapter 4: Relationships between Categorical Variables Contingency (Two-Way) tables, Table of percentages, Conditional percentages, Row percentages, Column percentages Chapter 7: Probability Definition of probability Probabilistic terminologies: Random experiment, sample space, outcome, event, simple event, compound event Operations with events: Intersection of events, union of events, mutually exclusive or disjoint events, complement of an event Probability rules: Complementation, addition, general addition, multiplication Conditional probability and Bayes’ Formula (through tree diagrams) Chapter 8: Random Variables Definition of a random variable; discrete and continuous random variables; Probability distribution function (pdf); cumulative probability function (cdf); Expected value (mean), variance, and standard deviation of a discrete random variable; properties of discrete random variables; Binomial Random Variable: Binomial experiments, binomial distribution; mean, variance, and standard deviation of a binomial random variable; Normal Random Variable: Normal density curves; z – scores; normal and standard normal distributions; The normal approximation to the binomial distribution; Chapter 9: Understanding Sampling Distributions: Statistics as Random Variables Sampling distribution for one sample proportion; Sampling distribution for difference between two sample proportions; Sample distribution for one sample mean; Sampling distribution for the difference between two sample means; Chapter 10: Estimating Proportions with Confidence Confidence interval for a population proportion, p; Confidence intervals for the difference in two population proportions; Chapter 11: Estimation Means with Confidence Confidence interval for a population mean; Confidence interval for the difference in two population means; Chapter 12: Testing Hypotheses about Proportions z – Test for one proportion; Type I, Type II errors; z – Test for the difference in two proportions; Chapter 13: Testing Hypotheses about Means One – sample t – Test; Type I, Type II errors; Two – sample t – Test (pooled); Chapter 14: Inference about Simple Regression (NOT TAUGHT THIS SEMESTER) Simple linear regression model: Population and Sample Versions; Chapter 15: Inference for Categorical Variables (NOT TAUGHT THIS SEMESTER) Chi – Square Test of a relationship between two variables (Section 15.1 – to be studied independently) REMARK ON FINAL EXAMINATION (FE) THE FINAL EXAMINATION WILL BASED ON UNITS 3 – CHAPTERS 10 – 11 AND UNIT 4 – CHAPTERS 12 AND 13. EACH QUESTION WILL WORTH 4 POINTS. Number of questions: 50 Distribution of final examination questions: Unit 3 in the neighborhood of 25 questions Unit 4 in the neighborhood of 25 questions