SYLLABUS – STATISTICS 201 2014 FALL SEMESTER SECTIONS 01 - 06 INSTRUCTOR: OFFICE: TEL: E-mail: OFFICE HOURS: Dr. Elijah DIKONG C501 Wells Building 8841486 dikonge@msu.edu M W 3:30 p.m. - 4:30 p.m. and by appointment LABORATORY INSTRUCTORS: Name Sections E-mail BANIK, A. 1 banikasi@stt. msu.edu SHI, Guiling 3, 4, 6 shiguili@stt. msu.edu ZHANG, Jingyi 5 zhang317@stt .msu.edu Li, Yingjie 2 liyingj1@stt. msu.edu Phone TBA Office TBA Office hours TBA 884-6659 C508 WH TBA 884-7831 C522 WH TBA 884 - 1488 C505 TBA Help Room: Statistics Help Room A102 Wells Hall is staffed for certain hours of the week with teaching assistants to give walk-in help. See Help Room schedule posted on www.stt.msu.edu Course Web Sites: http://www.stt.msu.edu and http://msu.lon-capa.org will provide course information. If required, log in with your MSU login name and password. Course Description: Probability and Statistics with computer applications. Data analysis, probability models, random variables, tests of hypotheses, confidence intervals, simple linear regression, and weekly laboratories using Minitab statistical software. Lecture: TuTh 8:30 a.m. - 9:50 a.m., 158 Natural Resources Building (158 NR) Laboratory: All laboratory meetings of the class are in 106 FAE . Section 01 M 3:00p.m. – Section 02 M 5:00p.m. – Section 03 Tu 10:20a.m. – 4:50p.m. 6:50p.m. 12:10p.m. Section 04 Tu 12:40p.m. – Section 05 Tu 3:00p.m. – Section 06 Tu 5:00p.m. – 2:30p.m. 4:50p.m. 6:50p.m. Text: Utts and Heckard, Mind on Statistics: Special Custom Edition for Michigan State University. ISBN 9781305027381 includes the custom text and the custom MSU STT 201 eBook Printed Access Card. We cover selected topics from Chapters 1 – 4, 7 – 15 . 1 Attendance: You are expected to attend all meetings of the class. If you must miss a class, plan to get notes for that day from a classmate. Be advised that the schedule on page 4 is tentative. Lecture: The lectures are used to present basic ideas. STT 201 is a survey course of the most practical and commonly encountered statistical concepts and methods. The course is taught at an elementary mathematical level (college algebra). Students will be using the statistical package Minitab for Windows, which is installed on computers in laboratories on campus. Minitab is available for student rental at www.minitab.com. Student will need to use their MSU student email to get the academic pricing for a purchase or rental. The textbook will be followed fairly closely. The course is divided into four units with an 80-minutes examination following each unit: Unit 1: Chapters 1 – 4, followed by Mid-term Examination 1 on Tuesday, September 23 Unit 2: Chapters 7 – 9, followed by Mid-term Examination 2 on Tuesday, October 14 Unit 3: Chapters 10 – 12, followed by Mid-term Examination 3 on Tuesday, November 04 Unit 4: Chapters 13 – 15, followed by Mid-term Examination 4 on Tuesday, November 25. Each mid-term examination is worth 100 points. All four mid-term examinations count toward course total. Mid-term Examination IV is a take-home examination. Laboratory Sessions: The laboratory instructors direct Monday and Tuesday laboratory meetings. Students will be using the statistical package Minitab, release 15, which is installed on the computers in 106 FAE as well as computers in all computer laboratories on campus. Students are required to become familiar with the basic commands of Minitab in order to access, store, create, and analyze data. There will be 13 laboratory assignments each worth 10 points. The laboratory assignments are included in the course text and posted on the LON_CAPA course website as well as on the www.stt.msu.edu website. LON_CAPA submission of each laboratory assignment is due by dates and times specified in the course schedule on the last page of the syllabus. To facilitate start up directions, please arrive at your laboratory meeting on time. The computer work can be completed during laboratory sessions; students may finish their reports outside the laboratory hours and submit them using appropriate forms posted on the course website. Submission of each laboratory assignment is due during class period on Monday the week following the laboratory meeting. No late laboratory work will be accepted. Three lowest laboratory scores will be dropped. Note: All examinations including a comprehensive final examination are multiple-choice and are "closed book" and "closed notes". The examinations will contain questions concerning text material and problems, classroom examples and discussions, and the use of Minitab. Missing an examination without an advance valid excuse presented to the instructor will result in a score of 0 points. Students who must miss an examination because of medical or family emergency or other exceptional circumstances should present a valid excuse to Dr. E. Dikong in advance of the examination whenever possible, to arrange for a make-up. There will be no excused laboratories. Dropping three lowest laboratory scores will accommodate those who for some reason must miss a submission of a laboratory assignment. 2 Academic Integrity: All students are expected to adhere to the University policy on academic integrity. It is covered in the Spartan Life booklet under General Student Regulations. For more information about this, please consult the handbook or visit the Spartan Life web sites at http://www.vps.msu.edu/SpLife/ . Evaluation: Points are earned through four mid-term examinations (400 points), cumulative final examination (200 points), laboratory projects (100 points), and any extra-credit points earned (through office visits, class participation, attendance, unannounced quizzes, and Top Hat submissions) (30 points). In determining your total points, your three lowest laboratory scores will be dropped. POINTS TOWARD GRADE: Source Lecture examinations (4) Laboratory projects (best 10 of 13) + Extra-Credit Cumulative Final Examination Total Maximum Points 400 100 + (30) 200 700 Your total number of points will be converted into a percentage and your grade will be determined by the following grading scale: Numeric Grade Point Range Percentage (%) 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.0 630 – 700 595 – 629 553 – 594 511 – 552 455 – 510 420 – 454 385 – 419 000 – 384 90% - 100% 85% - 89.9% 79% - 84.9% 73% - 78.9% 65% - 72.9% 60% - 64.9% 55% - 59.9% 0.0% - 54.9% Disclaimer: The instructor reserves the right to make any changes he considers academically advisable. Changes will be announced in class and posted on the https://msu.lon-capa.org course website and also on www.stt.msu.edu website. It is your responsibility to keep up with any changed policies. IMPORTANT DATES: Thursday, August 28: Monday, September 01: Wednesday, September 03: Tuesday, September 23: First day of classes. Labor Day, University is closed. Online Open-Add period ends End of 100% refund 3 Wednesday, October 15: Thursday, 11/27; Friday, 11/28: Thursday, December 04: Middle of the semester; Last day to drop with no grade reported Thanksgiving Holiday (University closed) Last day of classes FINAL EXAMINATION: FRIDAY DECEMBER 12, 2014 TIME: 7:45A.M. – 9:45A.M. Suggested Exercises: We have selected some exercises from the textbook that illustrate some of the ideas presented in class. Your solutions to these problems will not be collected or graded. The answers to these exercises are found in the textbook, and your solutions will not be collected or graded. If you encounter difficulty or are slow in solving problems, you should re-study the material, seek help (at A102 Wells Building or visit me during my office hours), and do additional exercises to improve your mastery of the concepts and methods. The textbook uses this terminology for its exercises: Exercise 3.13 refers to exercise 3.13 of Chapter 3, found on page 102; Exercise 8.27 refers to exercise 8.27 of Chapter 8, found on page 308. These are among the suggested exercises listed below. Chapter 1: 1.11, 1.13, 1.17, 1.19, 1.25, 1.27, 1.25, 1.39 Chapter 2: 2.1, 2.3, 2.5, 2.13, 2.17, 2.27, 2.29, 2.37, 2.39, 2.51, 2.57, 2.63, 2.85, 2.87, 2.91, 2.93, 2.99, 2.103 Chapter 3: 3.1, 3.3, 3.7, 3.13, 3.19, 3.39, 3.43, 3.61, 3.63, 3.65, 3.81 Chapter 4: 4.3, 4.7, 4.15, 4.17, 4.19, 4.21, 4.37, 4.53, 4.55 Chapter 7: 7.9, 7.21, 7.23, 7.39, 7.41, 7.45, 7.47, 7.57, 7.59, 7.95, 7.105 Chapter 8: 8.3, 8.9, 8.11, 8.27, 8.29, 8.31, 8.39, 8.43, 8.45, 8.51, 8.63, 8.67, 8.69, 8.71, 8.77 Chapter 9: 9.1, 9.9, 9.13, 9.15, 9.23, 9.37, 9.39, 9.41, 9.47, 9.55, 9.59, 9.61, 9.69, 9.113 Chapter 10: 10.5, 10.7, 10.11, 10.15, 10.19, 10.21, 10.23, 10.35, 10.45, 10.57, 10.63 Chapter 11: 11.3, 11.5, 11.11, 11.13, 11.25, 11.27, 11.43, 11.51, 11.53, 11.83 Chapter 12: 12.3, 12.7, 12.21, 12.49, 12.51, 12.55, 12.63, 12.83 Chapter 13: 13.9, 13.17, 13.23, 13.25, 13.35, 13.39, 13.49, 13.59 Chapter 14: 14.1, 14.5, 14.19, 14.27, 14.47, 14.55 Chapter 15: 15.3, 15.5, 15.9, 15.11 4 In addition to the above exercises, practice review problems directly related to mid-term examinations will be posted on the website www.stt.msu.edu and on LON_CAPA Tentative Schedule: Week of August 25 Tuesday No Classes September 1 Lecture, discussion Chapter 2 Thursday Lecture, discussion Chapter 1 Lecture, discussion Chapter 2 September 8 Lecture, discussion Chap. 2+Chap.3 Lecture, discussion Chapter 3 September 15 Lecture, discussion Chapter 4 Lecture, discussion Chapter 4 September 22 Mid-term Examination I Lecture, discussion Chapter 7 September 29 Lecture, discussion Chapter 7 Lecture, discussion Chapter 8 October 6 Lecture, discussion Chapter 8 Lecture, discussion Chapter 9 October 13 Lecture, discussion Chapter 9 Mid-term Examination II October 20 Lecture, discussion Chapter 10 Lecture, discussion Chapters 10 and 11 October 27 Lecture, discussion Chapter 11 Lecture, discussion Chapters 11 and 12 November 3 Lecture, discussion Chapter 12 Mid-term Examination III November 10 Lecture, discussion Chapter 13 Lecture, discussion Chapter 13 November 17 Lecture, discussion Chapter 14 Lecture, discussion Chapter 14 November 24 Mid-term Examination IV Due Date Lecture, discussion Chapter 15 Thanksgiving Holiday Final Examination Review December 1 Friday Lab No Lab Lab 1 Open = 8/27/14 Due = 9/8/14 Lab 2 Open = 9/08/14 Due = 9/15/14 Lab 3 Open = 9/15/14 Due = 9/22/14 Lab 4 Open = 9/22/14 Due = 9/29/14 Lab 5 Open = 9/29/14 Due = 10/06/14 Lab 6 Open = 10/06/14 Due = 10/13/14 Lab 7 Open = 10/13/14 Due = 10/20/14 Lab 8 Open = 10/20/14 Due = 10/27/14 Lab 9 Open = 10/27/14 Due = 11/03/14 Lab 10 Open = 11/03/14 Due = 11/10/14 Lab 11 Open = 11/10/14 Due = 11/17/14 Lab 12 Open = 11/17/14 Due = 11/24/14 Lab 13 Open = 11/24/14 Due = 12/01/14 No Lab 5 Advice for Students: DON’T FALL BEHIND!! This class moves at a rapid pace. Come to class and recitation prepared. o Read the chapter before lecture. o Reread the chapter after lecture to see if you have follow up questions. o Do the suggested exercises before recitation and come prepared with questions. Form a study group. Learn how to use your calculator. Keep a notebook of vocabulary. Keep a list of reference examples. Get help if you need it- from the professor, teaching assistant of the Statistics Help Room. ATTENDANCE: You are expected to attend all meetings (laboratories/lectures) of the class. If you miss a class for whatever reason, you are responsible for all materials, assignments, and deadlines missed. While office hours provide an opportunity for further clarification of materials covered in class, they will not substitute for classes. ACADEMIC HONESTY: The Department of Statistics and Probability adheres to the policies of academic honesty as specified in the General Student Regulations 1.0, Protection of Scholarships and Grades, and in the All-University of Integrity of scholarship and Grades which are included in Spartan Life: Student Handbook and Resource Guide. Students who plagiarize will receive a grade 0.0 on the assignment, test or quiz. ADA: To arrange for accommodation a student should contact the Resource Center for People with Disabilities (353-9642) http://www.rcpd.msu.edu/ LECTURE NOTES: Please visit the class website http://www.stt.msu.edu or https://msu.lon-capa.org before each class meeting. Print out the summary of the next lecture and the corresponding class-work, and bring them to class. On the class website you will also find the syllabus, mid-term review exercises, laboratory assignments with their due dates, updated course outline, and other pertinent information. EXTRA CREDIT POLICY: Every two weeks or fortnight, I will assign three or more exercises on chapters discussed the previous weeks as extra credit exercises. These exercises are not mandatory. However, if you decide to solve them for extra credit points, you MUST bring your work to the office and EXPLAIN to me how and why you arrived at your answer. Please, be reminded that extra credit work for say, week N, cannot be carried forward to week N+1. If you present to me extra credit work for week N, while we are already say, in week N+1, I will discuss the solution with you but you will earn no extra credit. ALL EXTRA CREDIT WORK SUBMITTED TO THE SECRETARY WITHOUT MY PRIOR KNOWLEDGE, OR SLIPPED UNDER MY OFFICE DOOR WILL BE PUT INTO THE TRASH BASKET. Office hours or special appointments are the only times I can receive any student willing to defend his/her extra credit work. 6 Unannounced quizzes, Top Hat discussions and submissions, attendance, office visits, will all factor in to the extra-credit points you earn. TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THIS POLICY TO CONTINUALLY CURVE YOUR CLASS GRADE THROUGHOUT THE SEMESTER. MORE ON STUDENT CONDUCT The instructor has the responsibility to teach. Students have the right to learn. Everyone needs to be respectful of the rights of other people in the class. Please avoid frequent tardiness. Arriving late and/or leaving early is not acceptable. Disruptive behavior which impedes the teaching/learning process will not be tolerated – use of cell phones, audio devices (except tape recorders used to record), and abusive language are prohibited. Discussion is encouraged in my classroom. However, please be respectful when the instructor or other students are speaking: listen attentively, disagree politely, and at all times avoid ridiculing others. Finding mistakes in my lectures is, however, encouraged, and is part of the fun. Talking or whispering during lectures or presentations is not acceptable. MSU policies regarding harassment will be enforced. Class lasts entire period. Do not begin packing up or repeatedly checking the clock (indicating your impatience) before class is dismissed. Any form of cheating is considered a serious offense and will be dealt with according to MSU guidelines. All persons involved are considered responsible, including the person from whom others copy. Thus it is your responsibility to place your materials in such a way that others will not have an opportunity to copy them. You may be asked to sit in specific seats so as to spread out exams takers. CLASS SURVEYS There will be ONE in-class survey and ONE online survey that are mandatory for each student to participate in. DESCRIPTION OF CHAPTERS CHAPTER 1: What Is Statistics? Introductory Video Case Study Illustration: Does Aspirin Reduce Heart Attack Rates? Types of Statistics (Descriptive and Inferential) 7 Chapter 2: Descriptive Statistics Some Relevant Statistical Terminologies (data, raw datasets, observations, population versus sample, parameters versus statistics, variables, categorical, quantitative, ordinal variables, explanatory and response variables, outliers) Numerical Summaries of Quantitative Data (Measures of Central Location – mean, median; Measures of Variability or Spread – Range, Standard Deviation, Inter-quartile Range; Measures of Position – Maximum, Minimum, Quartiles) Effects of outliers on measures of center and spread Displaying Quantitative Data (Boxplots, Histograms, Stem-and-leaf Displays, Dot-plots) Describing the distribution of a quantitative variable Displaying Categorical Data (Bar charts, Pie charts) Chapter 3: Linear Relationships between Quantitative Two Variables Scatterplots, positive association, negative association, line of best fit, correlation coefficient, coefficient of determination, residuals, influence of outliers on regression and correlation Chapter 4: Relationships between Categorical Variables Contingency (Two-Way) tables, Table of percentages, Conditional percentages, Row percentages, Column percentages Chapter 7: Probability Definition of probability Probabilistic terminologies: Random experiment, sample space, outcome, event, simple event, compound event Operations with events: Intersection of events, union of events, mutually exclusive or disjoint events, complement of an event Probability rules: Complementation, addition, general addition, multiplication Conditional probability and Bayes’ Formula (through tree diagrams) Chapter 8: Random Variables Definition of a random variable; discrete and continuous random variables; Probability distribution function (pdf); cumulative probability function (cdf); Expected value (mean), variance, and standard deviation of a discrete random variable; properties of discrete random variables; Binomial Random Variable: Binomial experiments, binomial distribution; mean, variance, and standard deviation of a binomial random variable; Normal Random Variable: Normal density curves; z – scores; normal and standard normal distributions; 8 The normal approximation to the binomial distribution; Chapter 9: Understanding Sampling Distributions: Statistics as Random Variables Sampling distribution for one sample proportion; Sampling distribution for difference between two sample proportions; Sample distribution for one sample mean; Sampling distribution for the difference between two sample means; Chapter 10: Estimating Proportions with Confidence Confidence interval for a population proportion, p; Confidence intervals for the difference in two population proportions; Chapter 11: Estimation Means with Confidence Confidence interval for a population mean; Confidence interval for the difference in two population means; Chapter 12: Testing Hypotheses about Proportions z – Test for one proportion; Type I, Type II errors; z – Test for the difference in two proportions; Chapter 13: Testing Hypotheses about Means One – sample t – Test; Type I, Type II errors; Two – sample t – Test (pooled); Chapter 14: Inference about Simple Regression Simple linear regression model: Population and sample Versions; Chapter 15: Inference for Categorical Variables Chi – Square Test of a relationship between two variables 9