INDIAN INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT BANGALORE Decision Making Instructor: Mukta Kulkarni Office: D-002 Phone: 3029 Office Hours: Class Time: ________________________________________________________________________ Course description and objectives: Wise people make them for themselves, while others follow public opinion. High achievers make them quickly, while stragglers plod on without ever making them. Less effective managers wait until they are certain before they make them, while effective ones only wait until they have clarity. Some postpone them until they are no longer relevant, while others are willing to make them when they are necessary. Decisions. From paying for coffee to losing weight; from buying a car to choosing a spouse - our decisions shape our destiny. If we are to be high achievers, effective managers or leaders, we must understand how to make decisions. And we must understand even better how to avoid the traps that cause intelligent people to make bad decisions. This course aims to help you understand both. Reading material: Reading material is provided for all sessions, and is contained in the course packet. Additional readings may be suggested in class, and will be posted on Moodle if required. A softcopy of PowerPoint slides, if used, will be available on Moodle for downloading. Pedagogy: The instructional format adopted for this class is a mix of lectures, case studies, group work, and assignments. Classes will be interactive. Guest lecturers may be called sessions if applicable. In-class participation: Given the participative nature of this course, participants are expected to add value through quality (not quantity) of discussion, listening respectfully to other’s contributions, not monopolizing in-class conversations, and sticking to relevant points being discussed. We will discuss several decision making cases, and go through decision making exercises. Performance assessment: Performance will be judged based on the following components – In-class surprise quizzes: Four in-class quizzes will be conducted during the course. The best three scores out of these four quizzes will be considered for final grading. Quizzes will contain multiple choice questions, and will cover material we have covered until date. This implies that material for quizzes is cumulative. All quizzes will be announced 2 to 3 minutes before administration. Since grade points for N-1 quizzes will be considered for final evaluation, there will be no make-up quizzes if you miss class on the day of the quiz. Quizzes are not open book. Participation and assignments: You may be required to submit answers to cases or assignments individually or as a group. In-class and homework assignments will be announced as we progress through the semester. Movie analysis (Group project): You will be watching two movies. You have to analyze the decision making processes in these movies. These are two separate assignments. For each assignment, in five pages, you are to assess the decision making process, drawing on concepts and ideas discussed in class and covered in course readings. What conceptual explanations can you offer for what happened and how the characters went about the task of deciding? Final Paper: Each student will write a five page (double spaced) paper on their analysis of decision making process in the group project mentioned above. You should integrate what you learned from the interviews, with any ideas from the readings from this class, as well as experiences and conversations in class. Grading scheme: Component Quizzes Participation and assignments Movie analysis Number 4 (points considered for 3) Variable, depending on class progress 2 Final paper 1 TOTAL Points 30 (10 per quiz) 70 100 (50 per movie) 50 250 Class schedule* Session(s) 1 Topic Introduction to decision making 2 How do people make decisions: Decision making models Readings/Cases Nutt. Surprising but true: Half the decisions in organizations fail. Academy of Management Executive Russo and Schoemaker. Deciding how to decide. Winning Decisions 3-4 Biases in Judgment 5 6 Case Are you Lorenz’s gosling: Anchoring and framing 7 8 Are you a decoy: Relativity in decision making To argue or not to argue: Managing agreement and disagreement 9 Bounded rationality and information asymmetry Daft. Decision making processes. Understanding the Theory and Design of Organizations Brousseau et al. Decision styles. Harvard Business Review Hammond et al. Hidden traps in decision making. Harvard Business Review Busenitz and Barney. Differences between entrepreneurs and managers. Journal of Business Venturing Certo et al. Managers and their not-so rational decisions. Business Horizons. Forbes. Are some entrepreneurs more overconfident than others? Journal of Business Venturing. Staw. Escalation of Commitment. Academy of Management Review Growing pains Airely. The fallacy of supply and demand. Predictably irrational Airely. The effect of expectations. Predictably irrational Airely. The truth about relativity. Predictably irrational Harvey. The Abilene Paradox: The Management of Agreement. Organizational Dynamics. Eisenhardt et al. How management teams can have a good fight. Harvard Business Review Garvin and Roberto. What you don’t know about making decisions. Harvard Business Review Bazerman and Chugh. Decisions without blinders. Harvard Business Review Brodbeck et al. Group decision making under conditions of distributed knowledge. Academy of Management Review. 10 Case 11-12 Movie 1 and analysis 13-14 Five frogs on a log: Why we don’t act on what we know Rural development institute: landless poor in India Pfeffer and Sutton. The smart-talk trap. Harvard Business Review Bazerman and Watkins. Cognitive roots –The role of human biases. Predictable surprises. Bazerman and Watkins. Organizational roots. The role of institutional failures. Predictable surprises. Mini cases 15 16-17 Decision making and leading through crisis Five smart frogs on a log: Effective decision making 18 How to create a good frame Charan. Solving a culture of indecision. Harvard Business Review Etzioni. Humble decision making. Harvard Business Review Malhotra et al. When winning is everything. Harvard Business Review Mankins. Stop wasting valuable time. Harvard Business Review Mankins. Stop making plans. Harvard Business Review Martin. How successful leaders think. Harvard Business Review Snowden and Boone. A leader’s framework for decision making. Harvard Business Review Russo and Schoemaker. Power of Frames, and Creating winning frames. Winning Decisions 19 20 Case Would you ‘borrow’ a pen from your classroom when no one was around? Ethics in Decision making 21-22 Launching the war on terrorism Ariely. The context of our character. Predictably irrational Trevino. Ethical decision making in organizations. Academy of Management Review. Wrap-up Movie 2 and analysis * The instructor may modify the schedule as the class progresses