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Crime Control in the 21st Century
(Australian and New Zealand Journal of Criminology, forthcoming)
P.N. Grabosky
Deputy Director
Australian Institute of Criminology
GPO Box 2944
Canberra ACT 2601
ABSTRACT
This article speculates on what society’s response to crime will look like in the
year 2020. Following a brief discussion of the anticipated criminal environment,
and trends which will influence the delivery of public services, the article will
suggest some of the forms which future institutions of crime control are likely to
take. In addition to the transformation of Australian police services, the paper will
discuss private and non-profit institutions of crime control, and how these will
interact with public institutions. The paper will conclude with a discussion of
trade-offs between personal safety and individual freedom, and how these will
shift over time. It predicts greater societal investment in personal safety at the
expense of individual freedom.
Acknowledgment
An earlier version of this paper was presented at the Annual Meeting of the
Australian and New Zealand Society of Criminology, Perth, Western Australia,
September 1999. The author would like to thank Professor Richard Harding; an
anonymous reviewer; and the Editor for their comments on earlier drafts. Views
expressed are those of the author, and not necessarily those of the Australian
Government.
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Crime Control in the 21st Century
Introduction
It was Santayana (1905) who said “those who cannot remember the past are
condemned to repeat it.” One might also suggest that those who ignore the future
are destined for a rude shock when it arrives. The following pages speculate about
what crime control will look like in the year 2020.
Of course, one of the better ways of predicting the future is to look at the present
and extrapolate from it. This does not always work. About ten years ago, one
might have speculated that junk faxes would become a problem. This may now
indeed be the case, but at the beginning of the ‘90s the even greater threat of junk
email had just begun to dawn. So, in today’s world, things can happen quickly.
Moreover, there are natural disasters, wars, and economic crises, which are not
always foreseeable. Each of these can impact on public safety, even on the other
side of the globe. As recently as 1996, one might have predicted that Indonesia
was likely to remain prosperous, stable and friendly.
The landscape described in the following pages will not be a pleasing one. It
should be emphasised that this article by no means advocates or celebrates any of
the outcomes which it predicts. But one should know what the future may hold, so
that we can try to make the best of it. Before looking at responses to crime, let us
first review some of those factors which produce crime.
Factors influencing the future criminal environment
Economic reforms, and the organisational changes in both public and private
sectors which may be expected to accompany them, will continue to create
winners and losers in society. Many of the losers, particularly those who are young
and male, unskilled and uneducated, may be expected to direct their frustration
internally, engaging in one or more of a variety of self-destructive behaviours, or
outwardly, in the form of interpersonal violence. Some of the winners, seeking an
even bigger slice of the pie, may be tempted to use illicit means.
There are a number of other potentially criminogenic factors, already visible,
which are likely to persist into the new millennium. Among these are family
dissolution, as well as economic pressures and other cultural forces which
encourage both parents to engage in full-time employment, where they are
fortunate enough to find such employment. Developments in technology have
also posed new opportunities for offenders and risks for prospective victims
(Grabosky and Smith 1998; Smith 1998).
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Space does not permit a full exposition of the causal processes by which these
factors can contribute to crime, except to suggest that they can affect the risk of
victimisation as well as offending. Three examples include dwellings which are
left unattended during the day, lack of appropriate male role models for young
boys, and diminished parental supervision of their children’s activities (Prenzler
and Townsley 1998; Weatherburn and Lind 2001, ch. 4).
One suspects that illegal drugs will continue to be immensely satisfying to those
who ingest them, and immensely profitable to those who produce and distribute
them. These will continue to pose challenges both to advocates of zero tolerance,
and to exponents of harm minimisation.
The stresses which accompany life in a rapidly changing world are likely to
continue to contribute to mental illness (Australia 1993). One suspects that this is
hardly an original observation, presumably having been made in reference to the
dramatic social changes occurring one hundred years ago at the turn of the last
century. In any event, the deinstitutionalisation of the mentally ill, coupled with
inadequate outpatient care, continues to create pressures on the criminal justice
system. One hastens to add that not all people who suffer from mental illness are
criminals. But such people are at greater risk of offending when they also have
problems with substance abuse (Ash et al 1999; Steadman et al, 1998; Eronen at al
1998).
The increasing complexity of crime control
Those who understand and appreciate the complexity of crime will recognise that
the state is withdrawing from many functions altogether, and scaling down its
investment in other activities, which could contribute to crime control. In the
wider scheme of things, this may be beneficial. In order to maintain our standard
of living in an increasingly competitive global economy, some readjustments and
some sacrifices may be necessary.
What this withdrawal means is that the task of crime control, already no longer a
monopoly of public sector agencies, will increasingly be shared with individual
citizens, businesses, and not-for-profit organisations. The good news is that this
will probably stimulate a good deal of creative thinking about crime control on
everyone’s part. The bad news is that the benefits of this thinking may not be
shared equally across Australian society. There remains a real risk that the most
disadvantaged in society will receive inadequate protection by public sector
agencies, and will also be unable to afford those protective services provided by
the private sector (Bayley and Shearing 1996).
Now let us identify some changes in the nature of crime control which we may
expect to see in Australia over the next decade or two.
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Look first at policing. The public regards the police as the first line of defence
against crime, and finds great reassurance in a visible police presence. They will
continue to do so. At the same time, global markets will continue to constrain
governments, particularly in their spending. Police today are being asked to do
more with less. Complicating this is the fact that police have traditionally been
expected to perform many roles which are only indirectly related to crime control:
duties relating to traffic, rescue, and a variety of other welfare functions. The
challenge of managing increased demand with limited resources will require an
unprecedented degree of resourcefulness, adaptability and entrepreneurialism on
the part of police.
What trends are currently impacting police and their environment, and where will
they lead?
1. Changes in organisational life.
Stability and continuity of employment
Until the 1990s, it was not uncommon to work for one employer for one’s entire
working life. This was especially the case with police. One would join as a cadet
at age sixteen or thereabouts, and barring illness or other mishap, serve for forty
years or so until retirement. While such occupational stability had its virtues, most
notably the idea of loyalty and commitment to the organisation and the
development and retention of a long institutional memory, it was not without
shortcomings.
Perhaps most prominent among these was a degree of rigidity and inflexibility
which inhibited adaptation to a changing environment. Specialists in corrections
will recognise that this was particularly characteristic of prison services, and led
directly or indirectly to privatisation of many corrections functions. In the domain
of Australian policing, it has led to a number of judicial inquiries, and to the
establishment of mechanisms of external oversight and control (Victoria 1978;
New South Wales 1981, 1997; Queensland 1977, 1989; Lewis and Prenzler 1999).
In any event, few people today, in policing or anywhere else, can expect to remain
with the same employer over the entire course of their career. Contract
employment with its emphasis on performance, has replaced institutional loyalty
as the stuff which bonds an organisation.
Civilianisation
The training of professional police officers is expensive. Some time ago, it was
recognised that civilians could be employed at lower cost, to do some of the
things that sworn police officers do (Victoria 1985). This would free up
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specialised police expertise for deployment where they are most needed, and for
their unique skills. This trend will most likely continue, thereby raising an
interesting question. Precisely what constitutes a core police function,
inappropriate for devolution, delegation or privatisation? One imagines that the
definition has changed over time. Until the mid 1980s in Australia, imprisonment
was regarded as a core public function, a quintessential responsibility of the state.
By 1998, one Australian jurisdiction (Victoria) had a higher proportion of its
prisoners in private facilities than any nation in the world (Harding 1998).
It has been said that the distinguishing characteristic of police is their monopoly
on the legitimate use of violence. The police, and ultimately the courts, have both
the authority and the power to deprive a citizen of his or her liberty. Is there any
alternative to these arrangements which is not inconceivable?
Feminisation
By June 1999, some 16 percent of Australian sworn police were female
(Australian Institute of Criminology 2000). Female representation in the higher
ranks is considerably less. The managerial revolution which Australian police
organisations are currently experiencing has begun slowly to erode the cultural
barriers which have limited opportunities for women in policing (Prenzler 1998).
As organisations compete for the best talent available, one may expect that the
very considerable skills which reside in that half of the workforce which happens
to be female will be drawn upon increasingly to staff Australia's police services.
One may predict that by the year 2020, women will comprise over one third of
Australian police, and at least one police service will be headed by a female
commissioner.
Diversification of crime control institutions
Life in the Western world has become increasingly complex. Professions which
did not exist a generation ago now have their specialties and sub-specialties.
And police no longer have a monopoly on policing. This might strike one as
oxymoronic. But quite to the contrary, policing has been shared with a variety of
non-police institutions for quite some time now. Employees in the private security
industry, broadly defined, now outnumber Commonwealth, state and territory
police by at least 2 to 1 (Prenzler and Sarre 1998).
Crime prevention
entrepreneurs, dispensing a variety of goods and services from hardware, to target
hardening advice, to surveillance, to programs for recent or prospective victims,
are becoming increasingly numerous. In esoteric areas such as forensic accounting
and information security, police are very much a minority. Bayley and Shearing
(2000) refer to the “multilateralization of policing”.
The police may continue to enjoy a monopoly on the legitimate use of force, but
not a monopoly on policing. While some will lament this loss of “market share”,
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others may see it as a golden opportunity for police to harness external resources
in furtherance of their mission (Grabosky 1996).
In a very insightful article published over a decade ago, the sociologist Gary Marx
(1987) observed five trends in investigations:
 Joint public-private investigations
 Public agents hiring or delegating authority to private police
 Private interests hiring public police
 New organisational forms in which the distinction between public and private
is blurred; and
 The circulation of personnel between the public and private sector
One could, no doubt, cite examples of each of these trends in contemporary
Australia.
A fundamental question for the future will be the extent to which the police
interact with various external institutions, such as the security departments of large
companies, internet service providers, private sector specialists in such fields as
forensic accounting and cryptography, or other individuals and organisations in a
position to provide useful information, or to remedy circumstances which
contribute to crime. One might refer to local councils, to public and private
transport authorities, or public housing authorities, not to mention research
institutions, which may from time to time provide useful ideas and perspectives.
One could envisage a scenario in which these various institutions operate
independent of, indeed, isolated from, each other. To use the metaphor of the
Chinese Wall-- no communication, much less collaboration or integration. An
alternative scenario, one more likely given the continued demand for public safety
in the light of finite capacity of public police, would see police working closely
with these institutions, in a manner envisaged by Gary Marx. This articulation of
public and private institutions is often incompatible with the language of market
share and competition; indeed, a more appropriate metaphor is that of symbiosis
and co-operation. One might also speak in terms of co-ordination, as police will
increasingly be called upon to exercise the skills of project managers and contract
compliance auditors.
The following illustrative examples are happening today, and they may well
constitute an embryonic version of the future.
The cultural property unit of the Royal Canadian Mounted Police includes two
civilian art historians (Ericson and Haggerty 1997, 203).
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Here in Australia, major events are policed jointly by sworn police and private
security services (Veno and Veno 1993). The most recent Summernats (an annual
gathering of exuberant motoring enthusiasts in Canberra- who last year numbered
in excess of 80,000) was regulated by a private security force of 300 as well as by
100 officers of the Australian Federal Police. Security for the 2000 Olympics
involved the collaboration of the New South Wales Police Service with a number
of public and private institutions, including the Australian Defence Forces and
private security firms (Dolahenty 2000; McKinnon 2000). One Australian police
service has tendered to provide contract security services to a major public
transportation facility.
Charles Sturt University has been contracted by the New South Wales Police
Service to provide recruit education from its School of Policing at Goulburn.
In South Africa, a consortium of private security companies provides
supplementary transport and equipment to the South African Police Service
(SAPS). The consortium identifies former police officers within its own ranks,
who are experienced and skilled in search and arrest, and who are able to secure a
crime scene prior to the arrival of the Police. Dedicated computer links exist
between the Durban City Police, the National Police (SAPS) and a major private
security firm. The project has improved the response time, the rate of detection
and
the
mapping
of
crime.
http://www.saps.co.za/6_commpol/6_lpp6.htm#project7
In the Netherlands, civilians are employed as "wardens" in selected
neighbourhoods and on transportation systems, providing a degree of surveillance
that would be prohibitively expensive if provided by sworn police officers. Their
very presence may discourage criminal activity; what they are unable to deter they
can report promptly to police (Hesseling 1995).
In the United States large retail chains are providing facilities in their stores for the
local police to use as temporary community police stations. Some are equipped
with facilities which allow officers to file reports from their beats. Some provide
tables near the front of the store which have a sign that says "Police Work
Station." (Law Enforcement News, 15/9/95).
Elsewhere in the United States, individuals and groups, sometimes of their own
motion and sometimes prompted by police, engage in civil litigation and other
activities to address problem buildings or other circumstances of physical and
social blight which give rise to criminal activity (Mazerolle and Roehl 1998). The
term "third party policing" has been used to refer to such innovations (Buerger and
Mazerolle 1998).
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In the city of Philadelphia, the central business district is policed by an integrated
team of public police and private security professionals, called “community
service representatives” (Greene, Seamon and Levy 1995). The latter, who coordinate their activities and share office facilities with Philadelphia Police, serve
as “goodwill ambassadors” and engage in general surveillance. While deployed,
the community service representatives remain in radio contact with police,
notifying them when their intervention is required. These collaborative activities
are supported by city sanitation workers, who are available to address problems of
litter, graffiti, and other physical indicia of disorder.
In North Queensland, Aboriginal Community Justice Groups seek to create and
reinforce informal institutions of social control, and consult with the formal justice
system. In addition, a kids and cops program involves recruiting the young people
in the community of between the ages of 8 to 14 as honorary local police to assist
the police constable in evening patrols (Chantrill 1997).
2. Individual initiatives
The withdrawal of the state from many areas of activity has become a fact of life
in nations around the world. Governments will continue to wind back on services.
To the extent that they continue to provide services, these services will, as much as
possible, be offered on a user-pays basis. The underlying theory behind this
withdrawal lies on the three pillars of encouraging self reliance, inspiring
entrepreneurial activity, and reducing public expenditures. These are all laudable
values.
Recognising that the capacity of police to control crime is not infinite, many
sectors have chosen to adapt, by forging a role for themselves. The investigation
and prosecution of insurance fraud and cruelty to animals are but two examples.
Most cases of insurance fraud in Australia are investigated by employees of the
insurance industry, most with previous law enforcement experience. They do all
but present a completed brief to the police for prosecution (Baldock 1997). The
Royal Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals investigates and
prosecutes cases of alleged cruelty to animals on behalf of the state (see
Prevention of Cruelty to Animals Act 1979 (NSW) s 34b; Prevention of Cruelty to
Animals Act 1986 (Vic) s 24; Taylor v Chief Inspector, RSPCA [1999] NSWADT
23 (19 April 1999).
To be sure, individual self help can be taken too far. The history of vigilante
activity around the world is a bloody one (Brown 1975). In the United Kingdom,
the recent “naming and shaming” of alleged pedophiles has caused completely
innocent people, by reason of mistaken identity, to become the victims of vigilante
attacks (Freedom Forum Online, 2000) But one may imagine how efficient and
effective outcomes may be even more achievable through coordinated efforts. As
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we have observed, one of the growth industries of the 1990s has been in security
services. And crime prevention, once regarded as an intellectual backwater of
criminology, has achieved considerable theoretical and operational breakthroughs
(Clarke 1997; Tonry and Farrington 1995; Sherman et al 1997; Welsh and
Farrington 2000), and has been enthusiastically embraced by governments around
the world.
Some commercial entities may dictate or induce crime control measures on the
part of their customers or suppliers, or may trade on a reputation for safety.
Insurors are increasingly requiring a degree of target hardening as a condition of
insuring property, or offering incentives for the adoption of security measures
(National Motor Vehicle Theft Task Force 1997, 178). Residential security is
advertised as an attractive feature of some housing developments.
3. Traditional reactions
Alongside the diversification and innovation that will characterise future forms of
crime control, some reactions to crime may be less amenable to change. The
impulse to punish is deeply engrained in many, if not all of us. Although some
cultures are more forgiving than others, the vengeful spirit is alive and well in
Australia. As Makkai notes
Survey data collected in 1998 indicate that 40 percent of Australian voters strongly agree
that the ‘people who break the law should be given stiffer sentences’ while 39 percent
agreed; only 5 percent either disagreed or strongly disagreed. Similarly, support for the
death penalty has always been high despite government policy on this issue. In 1998 39
percent of adult voters ‘strongly agreed’ and 27 percent ‘agreed’ that the death penalty
should be reintroduced for murder. (Makkai 2000, 252)
This general sentiment has existed here for generations, and is unlikely to fade
significantly over the next twenty years.
All else equal, one can hypothesise that a society which is secure, affluent,
egalitarian and homogeneous will be less punitive than one marked by poverty,
social divisions, and uncertainty (Grabosky 1984). By world standards, Australia
sits well toward the comfortable end of this continuum, but not close enough that
punitive sentiments are unusual. On the contrary, Australians can expect continued
“law and order” themes to dominate policy discourse in the domains of both law
enforcement and sentencing.
A good deal of the business of the public police will be devoted to the timehonoured task of protecting the advantaged members of society from the symbolic
and instrumental challenge by the disadvantaged; particularly in public places,
where both simple disorder and more serious predatory behaviour are likely to be
met with a repressive response.
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Those who favour simple solutions to complex problems will be pleased to note
that simple solutions (most notably increased reliance on imprisonment) will
continue to be advanced. Champions of simplicity will be less pleased to know
that these simple solutions are not guaranteed to meet with dramatic success. What
success they do achieve will come at significant financial and human cost.
An encouraging prospect is the rise of the restorative justice movement, the full
development of which is yet to be seen. If the current reintegrative shaming
experiments in the A.C.T. and elsewhere in Australia and around the world yield
positive results (less recidivism and victim dissatisfaction than that which follows
conventional prosecution), all else equal, this has the possibility of acting as a
significant counterweight to the new punitive trends (Sherman et al 1998; Strang
et al 1999 Braithwaite 1999).
Meanwhile, capital punishment will emerge as an issue periodically, but because it
is such a divisive issue in Australia, it will remain off the political agenda unless a
series of events as catastrophic as the Port Arthur Massacre occur.
Erosion of freedoms
Few readers of these pages would recall the day when one could board a
commercial aircraft without having to pass through a metal detector. Many would
remember life prior to the introduction of random breath testing. All of us would
remember the advent of red light cameras and CCTV, not to mention the days
when almost anyone could acquire a wide variety of firearms quickly and legally.
Who would deny that there has been a gradual erosion of individual freedom
(matters of sexuality to the contrary notwithstanding) in Australia during our
lifetime? It is not difficult to foresee a range of new prohibitions, some of which
have already begun to emerge. These include the proliferation of alcohol-free
zones, greater police powers to search, question and disperse juveniles, and
prohibitions on the carrying of knives, or other concealed weapons (see
Queensland 1993; Weapons Prohibition Act 1998 (NSW)).
Many of these encroachments on our freedom will be facilitated by developments
in technology. Already technologies of surveillance and tracking can permit
identification of an individual’s or a vehicle’s (or any other valuable commodity's)
precise location. Every move one makes on the Internet is potentially traceable.
One suspects that closed circuit television and other modes of surveillance will
become all but ubiquitous. Drug testing may well become a way of life in most
Australian schools and workplaces (Grabosky 1998; New South Wales 1992).
DNA sampling of criminal suspects, if not the general populace, could become
commonplace.
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Although some of us would flinch at the realisation that 1984 (Orwell 1949) will
soon be upon us, others are untroubled over the devices and technologies just
mentioned, regarding them as a small inconvenience in return for feelings of
security.
Research and Policy
What are the implications of all the above for research and policy? Public
discourse on crime will continue to generate more heat than light. It will continue
to be driven more by ideology than by science. The role of researchers, and of
the developers of policy, is to understand the changing environment that they are
working in, and to identify promising policy opportunities when and where they
can. If there is one opportunity for research and policy, it is to identify a range of
alternative institutional arrangements in which police can work with and through a
variety of other institutions, to deliver the best results for society as a whole.
Although what constitutes "best results" may be in the eye of the beholder, one
could perhaps be guided by the benchmark provided by Braithwaite and Petit
(1990) that society should strive for those outcomes that deliver the greatest
dominion—the greatest overall freedom—for the public as a whole.
More immediately, new arrangements through which police interact with nongovernmental actors should be sought out or consciously designed, inventoried,
and catalogued. Just as botanists of today, and their predecessors of years past,
enhance our knowledge of the natural world with their efforts to describe and
classify, so too should various institutional configurations and patterns of
communications, integration, and other forms of interaction be regularly and
comprehensively mapped. Above all, these new forms of organisational life should
be analysed in terms of their viability and failure, their public accountability and
the equity of their impact.
On evaluation
Whatever initiatives are introduced to control crime, whether they be introduced
by police, by other governments, or by private individuals, they should be subject
to objective, independent evaluation.
If society is serious about controlling crime, rather than merely achieving a warm
inner glow, its policies must be subjected to rigorous evaluation. Just as no one
would dream of introducing a new pharmaceutical drug to the market without
determining that it is safe and effective, so too should we ensure that our crime
prevention initiatives achieve their intended goals without producing harmful side
effects (Sherman 1998).
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If our crime control dollars are government expenditures, it seems risky indeed to
toss them around without determining as precisely as possible what difference
they make. Few governments today are willing to throw money at a problem
without bothering to determine what they are getting in return. One might say the
same about investments by non governmental institutions. Commercial
organisations, at least, have the discipline of the market to attend to. But resources
invested in non-profit endeavours are no less valuable. Whatever the setting,
cost/benefit analysis is likely to receive more attention in years to come (Welsh
and Farrington 2000).
On equity in crime control.
The benefits of future crime control endeavours will not be evenly shared across
Australian society. This should come as no revelation, as some would argue that
such has always been the case with regard to valued goods and services, whether
law enforcement, education, or the arts. But Australians are celebrated for the "fair
go", and one of the challenges faced by law enforcement agencies and crime
prevention planners in private and non-profit sectors is how to avoid an even
greater concentration of violence and theft in relatively less well-off communities
that exist today. Perhaps to some extent, the growing privatisation of public
protection may take some of the pressure off public agencies, and enable them to
focus limited resources on those citizens unable to afford private protection.
The devolution of choice to the consumer of public services, by bestowing
vouchers upon individuals or communities, and allowing them to purchase the
services they want from the source which they prefer, might strike some as pretty
drastic. But some internationally acclaimed observers of policing such as Bayley
and Shearing (1996) seriously canvass the concept of security vouchers, which
could be redeemed by local communities much as education vouchers can be
redeemed by families in some overseas jurisdictions. "Security endowments" to
particular communities can be used to purchase the kind of police or security
services which the community wants, from the organisation or organisations,
public or private, which they prefer.
One fundamental challenge is aggregating interests within a community which
may be diverse, or even irreconcilable. If half of a community thinks alcohol
abuse is the problem, and the other half thinks that alcohol is the solution to their
problems, democracy can be difficult. But where there is a degree of consensus
about the security needs of a community, and some protection guaranteed for
minority groups, the potential for community-based solutions may exist.
Freedom-enhancing alternatives
The gloomy scenario presented above may not be inevitable. There are strategic
alternatives to more repressive policing which are based on interventions far
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upstream. These include developmental crime prevention, and the potential of
various developmental initiatives to reduce the likelihood that a child will grow
into an adult client of the criminal justice system. Some of the more promising
interventions involve home visits to young expectant mothers by professional
visiting nurses (Olds et al 1998); parenting education programs (Snyder and
Paterson 1987); preschool enrichment programs for children from disadvantaged
backgrounds (Schweinhart 1987); and remedial education, vocational training, and
job placement for adolescents (Long, Maller and Thornton 1981).
Incidentally, the effectiveness of these programs has been demonstrated by
rigorous controlled evaluation.
The importance of developmental intervention for crime prevention, and indeed,
these very strategies, were recognised a decade ago by the National Committee on
Violence (Australia 1990), and has been reaffirmed in the National Initiative for
the First Three Years (NIFTY) program inspired by Professor Graham Vimpani of
the University of Newcastle.
To its credit, the Australian Government has recognised the importance of early
intervention for crime prevention, and has encouraged work in the area (Homel et.
al. forthcoming; Homel, Lincoln, and Herd 1999; Homel 2000; Homel, Elias &
Hay 2000)
Of course, the benefits of such early intervention extend far beyond crime
prevention. Greater investment in the first three years of life can yield significant
benefits in terms of a healthier, better educated, more productive workforce, and a
nation better equipped to compete in the global economy.
Conclusion
These are some of the emerging trends in crime and crime control in the years to
come. Although the focus has been on Australia, some of the themes may be
generalisable to other western industrial societies and indeed to the world at large.
Significant disparities in wealth are nothing new in Latin America and subSaharan Africa. The young and disadvantaged in those societies seize their
opportunities, licit or illicit, when and where they can. The more prosperous Asian
nations may be experiencing a gradual erosion of the nuclear family, which, in the
fullness of time, may impact adversely upon the upbringing and supervision of
children—as it has in Australia. One might suggest that global influences are
reducing the widespread cultural differences between nations, but are increasing
the heterogeneity and stratification within nations. For the most part, this is a
recipe for conflict and repression.
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If some of the above scenarios appear gloomy or foreboding, there are others
which are more encouraging. But whatever the case, the next two decades promise
to be very interesting for criminologists, and for the crime control industries.
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