ECONOMICS 321 Macroeconomics Seminar: The Determinants of Wealth and Poverty IN URUGUAY/ARGENTINA Term 9 2010-2011 Professor Todd Knoop Required Texts: Charles I. Jones, Introduction to Economic Growth, second edition, W.W. Norton. William Easterly, The Elusive Quest for Growth: Economists’ Adventures and Misadventures in the Tropics, first edition, MIT Press. Additional readings: Will be shared with the class via e-mail and Google Docs Introduction: The objective of this course is to attempt to understand the determinants of wealth and poverty across countries. To do this, we will make use of time spent learning in two interesting South American countries, Uruguay and Argentina. These countries are interesting for much different reasons: Argentina because it is a large country with a great deal of natural resources and a highly educated population, yet has been a growth disaster over the last 100 years; Uruguay because it is a small but fast growing country poised between two economic superpowers, Argentina and Brazil. While in South America, we will make much use of local experts who can provide us with insights on the following questions. The majority of our time will be spent in Montevideo, Uruguay where we will be holding our classes and studying at the Universidad de Montevideo. We will take trips to various places of interest throughout Montevideo and across Uruguay as well as spend a long weekend in Buenos Aries, Argentina. In regards to the class itself, we will be examining both the theoretic and empirical research regarding why some countries are rich and others are poor. We will spend the first half of the class developing a model of economic growth, primarily focusing on the model developed by Solow (1957) and extensions of this model that have followed. In the second half of the class we will survey the existing empirical literature on growth through a series of student presentations and other readings. These additional readings will often take us outside the traditional scope of economics and into the realms of culture, religion, history, and ethnic diversity as possible factors that play roles in determining which countries develop into rich countries and which do not. In our investigations, we will pay particular attention to issues specifically related to development in South America. 1 Food for thought: “It is quite wrong to try founding a theory on observable magnitudes alone....It is the theory which decides what we can observe.” - Albert Einstein “I do not see how one can look at figures like these without seeing them as representing possibilities. Is there some action a government of India could take that would lead the Indian economy to grow like Indonesia’s or Egypt’s? If so, what exactly?.....The consequences for human welfare involved in questions like these are simply staggering: Once one starts to think about them, it is hard to think about anything else.” - Robert Lucas Course Structure: Of course, there will have to be a great deal of flexibility in terms of class schedule and course structure. There will definitely be classroom time, which will be held at the Universidad de Montevideo. In addition, there will be joint class sessions between us and a group of UM students in Professor Daniello Trumpkin’s Macroeconomics II course (details TBA). In addition, we will have outside visitors to our class, both academics and professionals. Finally, we will also take opportunities as they arrise to visit with professionals outside of the classroom, both in Montevideo and Buenos Aires. Grading: Course grades will be determined by four classes of assignments and will be based on 350 possible points. I reserve the right to use my discretion at the margin and things such as class participation and improvement will be considered in borderline cases. (1) Exams: A final will be given at the end of class. The final will be worth 125 points and will be given in class. (2) Homeworks: A short empirical assignment and at least one homework assignment will be given out during the block. These assignments will be worth 50 total points. (3) Panel Paper/Presentation: Each student will be asked to summarize at least one professionally published group of articles (2-4 articles) or book on a topic relating to economic growth. This research may come from the reading list in this syllabus or from another article approved by the instructor. Journal articles in the reading list will be made available in PDF format. For students who want to look for papers on a topic not on the reading list, a good place to begin would be Econlit, an economics research paper database, at the following: http://www.cornellcollege.edu/library/electronic-resources/index.shtml. 2 Each student will be required to write a summary of his or her chosen paper. This summary should be at least eight pages long and should: (1) identify the topic of your paper in a clear and coherent manner, (2) discuss the importance of the questions addressed in the paper, including any relevance to previous material discussed in class or current events, (3) summarize all of the important results from the paper, including the intuition (not just the technical details) behind the results obtained, and (4) discuss the major public policy implications of the paper. Each student may be required to present a short summary of their paper in class (10-15 minutes), time allowing, as part of a panel comprised of other students in the class discussing papers on similar subjects. Students on each panel should meet together before their presentation in order to discuss their papers and integrate their discussions. The paper and presentation (graded together) will be worth 100 points. You are encouraged to consult with me during the process of choosing a paper and especially during your preparation of the class presentation. (4) Class Participation: Class participation will count for 100 points toward the final grade and will be assigned on the basis of both quantity and quality of participation. Given that this is a seminar class, and a course conducted in the field, we will devote a substantial amount of classroom time to discussing reading assignments, for which you will be expected to be fully prepared for. For all of the assigned readings (including the paper presentations of your fellow class members) you should be able to: (1) (2) (3) (4) summarize the reading assignments, answer questions regarding the reading assignments, raise questions regarding the reading assignments, understand how the reading assignments relate to previous reading assignments. You may be asked to provide a written review of certain assigned readings throughout the course. Your class participation grade also depends upon your behavior outside of the classroom. You are at all times expected to represent yourself and Cornell College professionally. Failure to do so will result in a decline in your class participation grade at the least, and being sent home in the case of extreme violations. Academic Dishonesty: Academic dishonesty will not be tolerated and will be dealt with in the harshest manner that is still in accordance with Cornell’s regulations in the student handbook. Academic dishonesty can include the failure to properly document sources of information used in your work. 3 Learning Disabilities: Cornell College is committed to providing equal educational opportunities to all students. If you have a documented learning disability and will need any accommodation in this course, you must request the accommodation(s) from [the instructor of the course] as early as possible and no later than the third day of the term. Additional information about the policies and procedures for accommodation of learning disabilities is available on the Cornell web site at http://cornellcollege.edu/academic_affairs/disabilities/. 4 OUTLINE OF TOPICS AND READINGS Also, additional articles, topical readings, and papers associated with student presentations will be assigned throughout the term. Section 1: The Theory of Economic Growth Topic #1: The Facts of Economic Growth J: Chapter 1 Topic #2: Latin American Growth Reid (2007), Chap. 2 Franko (2007), Chap. 2, 3 Fraga (2004) Topic #3: Mathematical Review The Solow Model J: Appendix A J: Chapter 2 E: Chapter 1, 2, 5 Topic #4: Applications of Solow Model J: Chapter 3 E: Chapter 3, 4 Krugman (1995) Lucas (2000) Topic #5: Endogenous Growth Models The Economics of Ideas J: Chapter 4, part of Chap. 8 J: Chapter 4 E: Chapter 8, 9 Topic #6: Institutions J: Chapter 7 E: Chapter 11, 12 Topic #7: Uruguay and Argentina 2001 Argentinean Financial Crisis 2002 Uruguayan Financial Crisis Beattie (2010) Knoop (2007) Taylor (2007) Section 2: The Empirics of Economic Growth Topic #7: Brief Review of Econometrics The Empirics of Growth 5 Barro (1997) Chapter 1 Topic #8: Aid and Debt Latin American Debt Crisis of 1980s E: Chapter 6, 7 Frankel (2007), Chap. 4 Topic #9: Natural Resources Disasters J: Chapter 9 E: Chapter 10 Topic #10: Diversity Democracy E: Chapter 13 Barro (1997) Chapter 2 Topic #11: Conclusions J: Chapter 10 E: Chapter 14 Final Exam- Last Day of Class-TBD 6 BRIEF ITINERARY May 2 (Monday): Leave Iowa from Cedar Rapids airport, departure at 3:30pm May 3 (Tuesday): Arrive in Montevideo, 9:15 am May 3 (Tuesday)– May 6 (Friday): Montevideo, Armon Suites May 6 (Friday) –May 8 (Sunday): Travel in Uruguay, staying in Punta del Este, Hotel TBD May 8 (Sunday) – May 12 (Thursday): Montevideo, Armon Suites May 12 (Thursday) – May 15 (Sunday): Buenos Aires, Argentina, Hotel TBD May 15 (Sunday) – May 23 (Monday): Montevideo, Armon Suites May 21 (Saturday)—Day trip to Colonia del Sacramento, Uruguay May 23 (Monday): Leave Uruguay, departure at 9:00pm May 24 (Tuesday): Arrive in Cedar Rapids, 1:05pm Flight Info: 5/2/2011 American Airlines # 5076 American Airlines # 2378 American Airlines # 989 5/23/2011 American Airlines # 984 American Airlines # 643 American Airlines # 5075 Depart Cedar Rapids 3:30pm Chicago-O’Hare 5:30pm Miami11:10pm Depart Montevideo 9:00pm Miami 7:40am Chicago-O’Hare 12:10pm Arrive Chicago-O'Hare 4:30pm Miami 9:40pm Montevideo 9:15am on 5/3/2011 Arrive Miami 5:15am Chicago-O’Hare 9:55am Cedar Rapids 1:05pm on 5/24/2011 Trip to Buenos Aires Info: Leaving Montevideo May 12 at 7:30 via Buquebus bus/ferry from Terminal Tres Cruces. Arrive in Buenos Aires at 12am. Returning from Buenos Aires directly via ferry on May 15 at 4:00pm. Arrive back in Montevideo at 7:15pm. Buquebus Contact Info: Phone +54-11-4316-6550 7 CONTACT INFORMATION IN URUGUAY/ARGENTINA Luisa Periano, Director of International Affairs Universidad de Montevideo Prudencio de Pena 2440 11.600 Montevideo - URUGUAY Phone + 598 2 707 44 61 Fax + 598 2 708 38 42 lpeirano@um.edu.uy Armon Suites, Montevideo: 21 de Setiembre 2885 Phone +598 2 712 41 20 Contact person: Eloy Mas ventas@armonsuites.com.uy Best Westerm La Foret, Punta del Este: Calle La Foret y Pascual Gattas Parada 6 Playa Mansa Phone + 598-42 481004 Dazzler Tower, San Telmo (Buenos Aires): Piedras 303 Phone + 54-11-5277-6050 8 READING LIST General Cross-Country Growth Relationships Acemoglu, Daron, and Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2001, “Productivity Differences.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics (May): 563-606. Barro, Robert J. and Xavier Sala-I-Martin, 1991. “Convergence Across States and Regions.” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity pp. 107-158. Barro, Robert J., 1997, “The Determinants of Economic Growth” in Determinants of Economic Growth: A Cross- Country Empirical Study, First edition. In Class Bourguignon, Francois and Christian Morrisson. 2002. “Inequality Among World Citizens: 1820-1992.” American Economic Review 96 (Sept.): 727-744. Clark, Gregory, 2007, A Farwell to Alms Princeton University Press: Princeton, NJ. De Soto, Hernando, 2000, The Mystery of Capital: Why Capitalism Triumphs in the West and Fails Everywhere Else Basic Books: New York, NY. Durlauf, Steven N., Andros Kourtellos, and Artur Minkin. 2001. “The Local Solow Growth Model.” European Economic Review 45: 928-940. Deaton, Angus, 2010, “Price Indices, Inequality, and the Measurement of World Poverty,” American Economic Review vol. 100, pg. 5-34. 2008, “Income, Health, and Well-Being around the World: Evidence from the Gallop World Poll,” Journal of Economic Perspectives 22, pg. 53-72. Friedman, Benjamin M., The Moral Consequences of Economic Growth Knopf: New York, NY. Hall, Robert E. and Charles I. Jones, 1999. “Why Do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output Per Worker Than Others?” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 83-116. In Class Krugman, Paul, 1994, “The Myth of Asia’s Miracle.” Foreign Affairs (Nov/Dec): 62-78. In Class Landes, David S., 1998, The Wealth and Poverty of Nations, Second edition. Lucas, Robert E. Jr., 2000. “Some Macroeconomics for the 21st century.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 14: 159-174. In Class _____, 2009, “Trade and the Diffusion of the Industrial Revolution,” American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics vol. 1, pg. 1-25. Malthus, Thomas R. 1798. An Essay on the Principle of Population. London: W. Pickering, 1986. 9 Mankiw, N. Gregory, David Romer, and David Weil. 1992. “A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 107 (May): 407-438. In Class Nelson, Richard R. and Howard Pack, 1999. “The Asian Growth Miracle and Modern Growth Theory.” The Economic Journal 109: 416-436. Sachs, Jeffrey D., 2005, The End of Poverty: Economic Possibilities for Our Time Penguin Press: New York, NY. Smith, Adam. 1776 (1981). An Inquiry into the Nature and the Causes of the Wealth of Nations. Indianapolis: Liberty Press. Solow, Robert M. 1956. “A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 70 (Feb.): 65-94. In Class Young, Alwyn. 1992. “A Tale of Two Cities: Factor Accumulation and Technological Change in Hong Kong and Singapore.” NBER Macroeconomics Annual, MIT Press. Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy, and Growth Barro, Robert J.,1997,”Inflation and Growth.” in Determinants of Economic Growth: A Cross- Country Empirical Study, First edition. Bruno, Michael and William Easterly, 1998. “Inflation Crises and Long-Run Growth.” Journal of Monetary Economics 41: 3-26. Burnside, Craig and David Dollar, 2000. “Aid, Policies, and Growth.” American Economic Review 90:847-868. Grilli, Vittorio, Donato Masciandaro, and Guido Tabellini. 1991. “Political and Monetary Institutions and Public Finance Policies in the Industrial Countries.” Economic Policy 13 (Oct.): 341-392. Hulten, Charles R., 1996. “Infrastructure Capital and Economic Growth: How Well You Use It May Be More Important Than How Much You Have.” NBER Working Paper #5847. Karras, Georgios, 1999. “Taxes and Growth: Testing the Neoclassical and Endogenous Growth Models.” Contemporary Economic Policy 17: 177-188. Knoop, Todd A. 1999. “Growth, Welfare, and the Size of Government.” Economic Inquiry 37:103-119. Schmitz, James A., 1996, “The Role Played by Public Enterprises: How Much Does it Differ Across Countries?” Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review (Spring): 2-15. 10 Human Capital and Growth Adams, James D. 1990. “Fundamental Stocks of Knowledge and Productivity Growth.” Journal of Political Economy 98, pp. 673-702. Beine, Michel, Frederic Docquier, and Hillel Rapoport, 20001. “Brain Drain and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence.” Journal of Development Economics 64: 275289. Chaudhury, Nazmul, Jeffrey Hammer, Michael Kremer, Karthik Muralidharan, and F. Halsey Rogers, 2006, “Missing in Action: Teacher and Health Worker Absence in Developing Countries, ?” Journal of Economic Perspectives 20, pg. 91-116. Cutler, David, Angus Deaton, and Adriana Lleras-Muney, 2006, “The Determinants of Mortality,” Journal of Economic Perspectives 20, pg. 97-120. Hanushek, Eric A. and Dennis D. Kimko, 2000. “Schooling, Labor-Force Quality, and the Growth of Nations.” American Economic Review 90: 1184-1208. Mammen, Kristen and Christina Paxson, 2000. “Women’s Work and Economic Development.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 14: 141-164. Trade and Growth Frankel, Jeffrey A. and David Romer, 1999. “Does Trade Cause Growth?” American Economic Review 89: 379-399. Miller, Stephen M. and Mukti P. Upadhyay, 2000. “The Effects of Openness, Trade Orientation, and Human Capital on Total Factor Productivity.” Journal of Development Economics 63: 399-423. Sachs, Jefferey and Andrew Warner. 1995. “Economic Reform and the Process of Global Integration.” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 1: 1-95. Sharma, Subhash C. and Dharmendra Dhakal. 1994. “Causal Analysis Between Exports and Economic Growth in Developing Countries.” Applied Economics 26: 1145-1157. Wei, Shang-Jin, 2000. “Local Corruption and Global Capital Flows.” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 2: 303-354. Winters, L. Alan, Neil McCulloch, and Andrew McKay, 2004, “Trade Liberalization and Poverty: The Evidence So Far,” Journal of Economic Literature vol. 42, pg. 72-115. Sub-Saharan Africa 11 Acemoglu, Daron, Simon Johnson, and James A. Robinson. 2001a. “The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation.” American Economic Review 91 (Dec.): 1369-1401. _____, _____, _____, 2001b, “An African Success Story: Botswana,” MIT Working Paper 01-37. Aker, Jenny C. and Isaac M. Mbiti, 2010, “Mobile Phones and Economic Development in Africa,” Journal of Economic Perspectives vol. 24, pg. 207-232. Block, Steven A., 2001, “Does Africa Grow Differently?” Journal of Development Economics 65: 443-467. Collier, Paul, 2007, The Bottom Billion: Why the Poorest Countries are Failing and What Can Be Done About It Oxford University Press: Oxford, UK. _____, 2006, “African Growth: Why a ‘Big Push’,” Journal of African Economics 00, pg. 188-211. _____, and Jan Willem Gunning, 1999. “Explaining African Economic Performance.” Journal of Economic Literature 37 (March): 64-111. de Haan, Jakob and Ross Levine. 1997. “Africa’s Growth Tragedy: Policies and Ethnic Divisions.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 1203-1250. Easterly, William, 2009, “Can the West Save Africa?” Journal of Economic Literature vol. 47, pg. 373-447. Sachs, Jeffrey D. 2001. “Tropical Development.” NBER Working Paper 8119. Technology Growth Baily, Martin Neil. 2002. “The New Economy: Post Mortem or Second Wind?” Journal of Economic Perspectives 16 (Spring): 3-22. Bosworth, Barry and Susan M. Collins, 2008, “Accounting for Growth: Comparing China and India,” Journal of Economic Perspectives 22, pg. 45-66. 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Robinson, 2001, “Reversal of Fortune: Geography and Institutions in the Making of the Modern World Income Distribution,” working paper. Ades, Alberto and Rafael Di Tella, 1999. “Rents, Competition, and Corruption.” American Economic Review 89: 982-993. Alesina, Alberto and Beatrice Weder. 2002. “Do Corrupt Governments Receive Less Foreign Aid?” American Economic Review 92 (Sept.): 1126-1137. Algan, Yann and Pierre Cahuc, 2010, “Inherited Trust and Growth,” American Economic Review vol. 100, pg. 2060-2092. Allen, Robert C., 2003, “Progress and Poverty in Early Modern Europe,” Economic History Review 56, pg. 403-443. Arestis, Philip and Panicos Demetriades, 1997. “Financial Development and Economic Growth: Assessing the Evidence.” The Economic Journal 107 (May): 783-799. Banerjee, Abhijit V. and Esther Duflo, 2006, “The Economic Lives of the Poor,” MIT Working paper. Baumol, William J. 1990. “Entrepreneurship: Productive, Unproductive, and Destructive.” Journal of Political Economy 98 (Oct.): 893-921. Collier, Paul and Anke Hoeffler, 2004, “Greed and Grievance in Civil War,” Oxford Economic Papers 56: pg. 563-595. Cull, Robert Asli Demirguc-Kunt, and Jonathan Morduch, 2009, “Microfinance Meets the Market,” Journal of Economic Perspectives vol. 23, pg. 167-192. de Haan, Jakob andJan-Egbert Strum, 2000. “On the Relationship between Economic Freedom and Economic Growth.” European Journal of Political Economy 16: 215-241. Diamond, Jared, 1997, Guns, Germs and Steel, First edition. New York: W.W. Norton. 13 Easterly, William and Tobias Pfutze, 2008, “Where Does the Money Go? Best and Worst Practices in Foreign Aid,” Journal of Economic Perspectives 22, pg. 29-52. _____, 2006, The White Man’s Burden: Why the West’s Efforts to Aid the Rest Have Done So Much Ill and So Little Good, Penguin Publishing, London: England. Gallup, John Luke, Jeffrey D. Sachs, and Andrew Mellinger. 1999. “Geography and Economic Development.” International Regional Science Review 22: 179-232. Galor, Oded and Omer Moav. 2002. “Evolution and Growth.” European Economic Review 45: 718-729. Guiso, Luigi, Paola Sapienza, and Luigi Zingales, 2006, “Does Culture Affect Economic Outcomes?” Journal of Economic Perspectives 20, pg. 23-48. Hermes, Niels and Robert Lensink, 2007, “The Empirics of Microfinance: What Do We Know?,” The Economic Journal 117, pg. F1-F10. Knack, Stephen and Philip Keefer. 1995. “Institutions and Economic Performance: Cross-Country Tests Using Alternative Institutional Measures.” Economics and Politics 7 (Nov.): 207-227. Kuran, Timor, 2004, “Why the Middle East is Economically Underdeveloped: Historical Mechanisms of Institutional Stagnation,” Journal of Economic Perspectives 18, pg. 7190. Levine, Ross, 2005, “Law, Endowments, and Property Rights,” Journal of Economic Perspectives 19, pg. 61-88. Licht, Amir N. and Chanan Goldschmidt, 2007, “Culture Rules: The Foundations of the Rule of Law and Other Norms of Governance,” working paper. McCleary, Rachel M. and Robert J. Barro, 2006, Religion and Economy, ?” Journal of Economic Perspectives 20, pg. 49-72. Nelson, Richard R., 2005, “Evolutionary Theories of Cultural Change: An Empirical Perspective,” working paper. Ó Gráda, Cormac, 2007, “Making Famine History,” Journal of Economic Literature 45, pg. 5-38. Perotti, Roberto 1996. “Growth, Income Distribution, and Democracy: What the Data Say.” Journal of Economic Growth 1 (June): 149-187. Putterman, Louis. 2000. “Can an Evolutionary Approach to Development Predict PostWar Economic Growth?” The Journal of Development Studies 36 (Feb.): 1-30. Rajan, Raghuram and Arvind Subramanian, 2007, “Does Aid Affect Governance?” American Economic Review vol. 97, pg. 322-327. 14 Sengupta, Rajdeep and Craig P. Aubuchon, 2008, “The Microfinance Revolution: An Overview,” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review 90, pg. 9-30. Shleifer, Andrei, and Robert W. Vishny. 1993. “Corruption.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 108 (Aug.): 599-618. Svensson, Jakob, 2005, “Eight Questions about Corruption,” Journal of Economic Perspectives vol. 19, pg. 19-42. Zak, Paul J. and Stephen Knack, 2001. “Trust and Growth.” The Economic Journal 111(April): 295-321. Latin America Beattie, Alan, 2010, False Economy Riverhead Trade Publishing. Fraga, Arminio, 2004, “Latin America Since the 1990s: Rising from the Sickbed?” Journal of Economic Perspectives vol. 18, pg. 89-106. Franko, Patrice, 2007, The Puzzle of Latin American Economic Development Rowman & Littlefield Publishing, Inc: Lanham, ML. Ocampo, Jose Antonio, 2004, “Latin America’s Growth and Equity Frustrations During Structural Reforms,” Journal of Economic Perspectives vol. 18, pg. 67-88. Reid, Michael, 2007, Forgotten Continent: The Battle for Latin America’s Soul Yale University Press: New Haven, CT. Taylor, John B, 2007, “The 2002 Uruguayan Financial Crisis: Five Years Later,” mimeo. 15