Front Cover for Teaching Plan Semester Spring 2008 Course Technological Economics Instructor Yao Jie Class Administration061 Credit hours 2 Chapter 6 Engineering Economy Fifth Edition Textbook Leland Blank ISBN 7-302-07562-X Time April 1 Teaching Purpose Know about the basic concepts of management including the definition, the four functions etc; understand the relationship between management and organizational performance Teaching Emphasis Annual Worth Analysis Teaching Difficulties Annual Worth Analysis Teaching Methods Lecture Teaching Process And Time Assignment 1. 2. 3. 4. One life cycle CR and AW calculation Alternative selection by AW AW of permanent investment 1 Teaching Plan Content Remark Section 6.1 Advantages and Uses of Annual Worth Popular analysis technique Easily understood -- results are reported in $ per time period, usually $ per year Eliminates the LCM problem associated with the present worth method Only have to evaluate one life cycle AW Calculation from PW or FW Computation from PW or FW AW = PW(A/P,i%,n) or AW = FW(A/F,i%,n) If AW determined for alternative comparison, equal service assumption requires that n = LCM number of years AW converts all cash flows to their end of period equivalent amounts in $ per year AW Value from Cash Flows AW values can be calculated directly from cash flows for only one life cycle Not necessary to consider the LCM of lives as is in PW or FW analysis For alternative comparison, select the alternative with the best AW value AW and Repeatability Assumption If two or more alternatives have unequal life estimates, only evaluate the AW for one life cycle of each alternative; The annual worth of one cycle is the same as the annual worth of all future cycles (from repeatability assumption) Repeatability Assumption: 1. The services provided are needed forever 2. The first cycle of cash flows is repeated for all successive cycles in the same manner 3. All cash flows will have exactly the same estimated values in every life cycle. Note: The third assumption may be unrealistic in many problems encountered in industry 2 One or More Cycles AW assumes repeatability of cash flows Cycle 1 Cycle 2 … Cycle k Find the annual worth of any given cycle ($/period) Annualize any one of the cycles Slide Sets to accompany Blank & Tarquin, Engineering Economy, 6th Edition, 2005 6-8 © 2005 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All Rights Reserved Ex 6.1 -- 6 Year & 9 Year Alternatives For PW or FW analysis, need an 18 year study period. Means a lot of calculation effort! 3 life cycles of the 6 year project 2 life cycles of the 9 year project Using AW Analysis If the cash flow patterns are assumed to remain the same for the 6 and 9 year projects for future cycles, then for AW method Advantages/Applications of AW: Applicable to a variety of engineering economy studies such as: Asset replacement Breakeven analysis Make-or-Buy decisions Studies dealing with manufacturing costs Economic value added (EVA) analysis Section 6.2 Calculating Capital Recovery and AW An economic alternative should have the following cash flow estimates made Initial investment -- P Estimated future salvage value -- S Estimated life -- n Interest rate -- i% (this is usually the MARR) Estimated annual operating costs – AOC Capital Recovery (CR) is the annualized equivalent of the initial investment P and the future salvage value S for n years at i% Capital recovery cost 3 It is important to know the equivalent annual cost of owning an asset This cost is called “Capital Recovery” or CR, CR is determined using {P, S, i, and n} Comparing capital recovery with AW AW = - CR – AOC where AOC itself is an annual equivalent amount (same each year). Capital Recovery Calculations Method 1 Compute equivalent annual cost of the investment P and subtract the equivalent annual savings of the salvage value S. This is P(A/P,i,n) - S(A/F,i,n) Determine CR as the negative (cost) of this relation CR = -[P(A/P,i,n) - S(A/F,i,n)] Method 2 Subtract salvage value S from original cost P and calculate the equivalent annual cost of (P-S) Add to that the interest which the salvage value would return each year, S(i) CR = -[(P - S)(A/P,i,n) + S(i)] Excel can be used to find CR= PMT(i%,n,P,-S) CR Amount: What It Means CR is the annual cost associated with owning a productive asset over n time periods at interest rate i% per period. Equivalently, CR may be interpreted as the minimum amount of money an investment must earn each of n years to recover the initial cost at a return of i%. Example 6.2: P = $12.46 million, S = $0.5 million, n = 8 years, i = 12%, AOC = $0.9 million per year CR by method 2: CR = -[(12.46-0.5)(A/P,12%,8)+ 0.5(0.12)] = $-2.47 million per year AW = CR – AOC = - 2.47 - 0.9 = $ - 3.37 million per year Section 6.3 Evaluating Alternatives Using AW For mutually exclusive alternatives, select one with lowest AW of costs(service) or highest AW of net incomes (revenue). This means, select the numerically largest AW alternative. If AW < 0 at MARR, the (revenue) alternative is not economically justifiable, since initial investment P is not recovered over n years at the required rate of MARR = i% per year. 4 Example 6.4(a): Alternative A has two components with n values of 8 and 12 years; Alternative B has n = 24 years Selection using AW chooses B with the lower equivalent annual costs Alternative Lives CR AW A 8 & 12 $-24,424 $-36,724 B 24 $-27,146 $-29,646 Only one life cycle of each asset was considered PW analysis would require using LCM of 24 years Example 6.4(b): Specified study period of only 6 years reduces time to recover investment, so AW values of costs go up Alternative Study Period CR over 6 years AW over 6 years A 6 $-26,382 $-38,682 B 6 $-43,386 $-45,886 Now, select A since it has lower AW of costs Bigger impact on CR for B since recovery time is reduced from 24 to only 6 years Check out the computer solution for this example Special Cases for AW Analysis If cash flow repeatability assumption can’t be made, specify a study period of n years and perform analysis with this n in all computations (Example 6.4(b) did this) If projects are independent, select all with AW > 0 at i = MARR, provided no budget limit is defined. If budget limited, use techniques of chapter 12 Section 6.4 AW of a Permanent Investment If an investment has no finite cycle (or a very long estimated life), it is called a perpetual or permanent investment If “P” is the present worth of the cost of the investment, then the AW value is P times i AW =A = P(i) AW is actually the amount of interest P would earn each year, forever Remember: P = A/i See Examples 6.5 and 6.6 for illustrations 5