Macroeconomic Questions, 2009 - 2011 Syllabus Level Year , Paper Question Mark Scheme Aggregate Demand SL May 2010, P1 2. (a) Aggregate demand consists of consumption, investment, government spending and net exports (exports minus imports). Explain two factors that may influence investment and two factors that may influence net exports. [10 marks] Aggregate Demand SL May 2010, P1 2 (b) Evaluate the effectiveness of an increase in investment expenditure on the performance of an economy. [15 marks] Answers should include: • a definition of investment • a definition of net exports • an explanation of any two factors which may influence investment such as the interest rate, business expectations, increased consumer demand, cost, economic stability and efficiency of capital equipment • an explanation of any two factors which may influence net exports such as increases in foreign incomes increases a country’s exports, increases in a country’s national income leads to an increase in imports, decreases in foreign incomes results in less exports from a country, decreases in a country’s national income results in a decrease in imports, a fall in relative prices (if a country’s goods and services fall in price relative to those of other countries) will result in a country selling more exports and buying less imports and improvements in the relative quality of a country’s goods in comparison to other countries will result in it selling more exports and buying less imports. (b) Evaluate the effectiveness of an increase in investment expenditure on the performance of an economy. [15 marks] Answers may include: • a definition of investment • an explanation of the “performance of an economy” in terms of growth, employment, price stability and the balance of payments • consideration of an increase in investment leading to an increase in real GDP (economic growth) • diagrams showing a movement from a point within to a point on the PPF or a shift of the AD to the right • the supply-side effects of increasing investment on price and real output levels • diagram to show shift in LRAS • the possibility of demand-pull inflation, depending on where the economy is operating • an explanation that it could adversely affect the current account of the balance of payments if investment expenditure is on imports • impact of different types of investment in terms of sustainable development • a comparison with potential growth • the supply-side effects of increasing investment on price and real output levels • short-run versus long-run effects • an overall assessment of the impact. 1 Syllabus Level Year , Paper Question Mark Scheme Examiners should be aware that candidates may take a different approach which if appropriate, should be rewarded. Effective evaluation may be to: • consider short-term versus long-term consequences • examine the impact on different stakeholders • discuss advantages and disadvantages • prioritize the arguments. An explanation that it is the total demand for all goods and services produced in an economy OR This comprises C+I+G+(X–M) is also sufficient. For drawing a correctly labelled AD/AS diagram showing a shift to the right (increase) in the AD curve and for explaining that I (private investment) and M (imports) are components of aggregate demand (C+ Ι +G + X−M) and an increase in spending on I and a decrease in spending on M will increase AD. (Diagram + 1 component = [3 marks]) Aggregate demand SL May 2009, P2 3a(ii) aggregate demand (paragraph Aggregate demand & aggregate supply SL May 2010, P2 1(c) Using an AD/AS diagram, explain how increased private domestic investment and a decreased need to import oil from overseas are likely to contribute to economic growth in the US economy (paragraph ). [4 marks] 2 (b) Evaluate the possible impact on economic performance that may result from a government decision to bring inflation under control. [15 marks] Aggregate demand & aggregate supply Inflation Aggregate demand & aggregate supply unemployment Aggregate demand & supply – supply-side policies Aggregate demand & unemployment May 2009, P1 Answers may include: explanation of “economic performance” different types of inflation according to the rate, e.g. hyperinflation importance of the distinction between demand-pull and cost-push inflation implications of the use of demand-side policies implications of the use of supply-side policies impact on employment use of Phillips curve impact on balance of payments impact on growth use of AD/AS diagrams. Effective evaluation may be to: consider short-term versus long-term consequences examine the impact on different stakeholders prioritize the arguments. For drawing a correctly labelled AD/AS diagram showing a shift to the left (decrease) in AD and for explaining that as domestic demand falls, output will fall contributing to unemployment in the economy. SL May 2010, P2 3(b) Using an appropriate diagram, explain how falling domestic demand is likely to contribute to higher levels of unemployment. [4 marks] HL May 2009, P3 3(b) Using an AD/AS diagram, explain how supply-side policies could affect real output in the longrun. [4 marks] For drawing a correctly labelled AD/AS diagram with a movement of the LRAS showing an increase in real output and an explanation of how supply-side policies can increase real output in the long run such as by increasing the quantity and/or increasing the quality of factors of production. SL May 2009, P1 2 (b) Evaluate the view that the unemployment rate can be most effectively reduced through the use of measures designed to increase aggregate demand in an economy. [15 marks] Answers may include: explanation of measures designed to increase AD in terms of fiscal and monetary policy use of lower interest rates to increase AD and to combat demand deficient unemployment use of higher government spending/lower taxation to increase AD and to combat demand deficient unemployment illustration of demand-side policies using AD/AS diagrams discussion of ineffectiveness of demand-side measures for structural, real wage, frictional and seasonal unemployment discussion of problems of demand-side measures, e.g. may lead to a rise in inflation, financing expansionary fiscal policy, time lags associated with monetary policy, etc. explanation of supply-side measures to deal with non-demand 2 Syllabus Level Year , Paper Question Mark Scheme deficient unemployment discussion of problems of supply-side measures, e.g. it may lead to the exploitation of workers, the cost and effectiveness of government managed training, the time lags associated with the application of supply-side policies. Examiners should be aware that candidates may take a different approach which if appropriate, should be rewarded. Effective evaluation may be to: consider short-term versus long-term consequences examine the impact on different stakeholders discuss advantages and disadvantages prioritize the arguments. For drawing a business cycle diagram indicating the phases of the cycle and for explaining that Germany was in recession in 2008 as it recorded negative growth in successive quarters. (If only recession is mentioned then [1 mark] may be awarded for the explanation.) Business Cycle SL May 2011, P2 2 (b) Using a business cycle diagram, explain Germany’s economic position in 2008 in relation to the business cycle. [4 marks] Definitions SL May 2011, P2 2(a) Define the following terms indicated in bold in the text: (i) deflation (paragraph ) (ii) savings (paragraph ). An explanation that it is a sustained decrease in the average level of prices (general price level) in an economy. 3(a) Define the following terms indicated in bold in the text: (i) unemployment rate (paragraph ) (ii) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (paragraph ). An explanation that it is the number of unemployed expressed as a percentage of the workforce. (If this is expressed as an equation, then full marks should be awarded if the equation is correct). 3(d) Using information from the text/data and your knowledge of economics, evaluate whether demand-side policies or supply-side policies should be used to reduce the current level of unemployment in Ireland. [8 marks] Responses may include: Evaluation of the demand-side policies: • a definition of demand-side policies • an AD/AS diagram showing a rightward shift of the AD function • a connection between the shape of the AS function and the likelihood that demand-side policies may or may not succeed (i.e. given the economic slowdown in Ireland it is likely that the AD function may intersect the AS function on a point close to its horizontal range so that an increase in AD may result in an increase in output with negligible inflationary costs. Otherwise, on a steeper range of AS, the demand-side policies may have a heavy inflationary cost) • the role of increased government spending which can create additional employment opportunities, for example, through infrastructural investment that would stimulate the economy (paragraph ) Definitions Demand-side and supplyside policies SL SL May 2010, P2 May 2010, P2 An explanation that it is any of: income that is not spent present consumption foregone a withdrawal from the circular flow of income money stored in financial institutions. An explanation that it is the value of all goods and services produced in an economy in a given time period. 3 Syllabus Level Year , Paper Question Mark Scheme • reduced indirect and direct taxation may successfully increase consumer expenditure and stimulate the economy • however, if not carefully targeted, increased government spending may leak from the circular flow of income through increased savings and/or import spending • the large budget deficit in Ireland may prevent further government borrowing and reduce the scope for aggregate demand stimulation (paragraph ) • reduced interest rates may allow businesses to invest more and employ more people • reduced interest rates may not stimulate increased investment by businesses because of pessimistic expectations during a crisis. Evaluation of supply-side policies: • a definition of supply-side policies • an AD/AS diagram showing a rightward shift of the LRAS function • wage restraint through reduction of union power may add flexibility to the labour market (paragraph ) • wage restraint may be conducive to social instability (industrial action) that may further worsen the economic slowdown • reducing unemployment benefits • social consequences of reducing benefits (poverty, inequality) • decrease in income tax may provide incentives for workers to work more • decrease in income tax has a limited effect on highly-paid workers as they opt for an increase in leisure • labour market flexibility will allow market forces to set wages and lower costs for businesses • deregulation may have severe safety or environmental consequences • interventionist policies, such as increased training/education, encouraging R+D, the provision of infrastructure, and improved information flows may be high cost and involve serious opportunity costs. Overall evaluation: • demand-side polices have a macroeconomic focus • demand-side policies may be more effective in times of cyclical downturns • demand-side policies are flexible in timing and focus • demand-side policies are difficult to implement with limited fiscal resources • supply-side policies have a microeconomic focus • time lags may reduce the impact of any supply-side policy in the short term • in the long run, supply-side policies may improve efficiency and assist international competitiveness. Examiners should be aware that candidates may take a different approach which if appropriate, should be rewarded. If there is no direct reference to the text/data, then candidates may not be 4 Syllabus Level Year , Paper Question Mark Scheme rewarded beyond level 2. Effective evaluation may be to: • consider short-term versus long-term consequences • examine the impact on different stakeholders • discuss advantages and disadvantages • prioritize the arguments. Fiscal policy HL May 2010, P3 2(d) Using information from the text/data and your knowledge of economics, evaluate the role of fiscal policy in stimulating the USA economy. [8 marks] Responses may include: an explanation/definition of fiscal policy an AD/AS diagram showing a rightward shift of AD a reference to Keynesian policies. Positive role that fiscal policy may have: the effect direct investment may have on business investment (paragraph ) the possible effect on consumer spending (paragraph ) lower production costs as a result of tax cuts in indirect taxes (paragraph ) direct tax cuts increase disposable income (paragraph ) supply side benefits of increased government spending on infrastructure possible increase in business confidence (paragraph ) multiplier and accelerator effects impact on employment. Negative role fiscal policy may have: inflationary pressures conflicting with growth and the desire to stimulate the economy (paragraph ) is the package powerful enough to convince investors? inflexibility in that it cannot be changed easily and quickly time lags for policy measures to have an effect financing a budget deficit “crowding out” effect of increased borrowing could add to the trade deficit. Examiners should be aware that candidates may take a different approach which if appropriate, should be rewarded. If there is no direct reference to the text/data, then candidates may not be rewarded beyond level 2. Effective evaluation may be to: consider short-term versus long-term consequences examine the impact on different stakeholders discuss advantages and disadvantages prioritize the arguments. Fiscal Policy SL May 2011, P1 2. (a) Using appropriate diagrams, explain how an increase in government spending could affect both aggregate demand and Answers should include: a definition of government spending a definition of aggregate demand a definition of aggregate supply an explanation of an increase in government spending influencing AD 5 Syllabus Fiscal Policy Level SL Year , Paper May 2011, P1 Question Mark Scheme aggregate supply in an economy. [10 marks] use of an AD/AS diagram showing shift of AD to the right an explanation of the possible linkage between an increase in government spending affecting the supply-side of the economy, e.g. education and training, government spending on infrastructure use of an AD/AS diagram showing shift of LRAS to the right. 2(b) “The lower the level of government spending, the better.” Evaluate this view. [15 marks] Answers may include: Arguments in favour of lower government spending: lower government spending and greater use of market forces to allocate resources leading to greater economic efficiency lower government spending leading to lower taxation lower government spending reduces government borrowing the importance of reduced government spending as a means of reducing AD, to reduce inflation and a current account deficit. Arguments against lower government spending: the importance of government spending for the supply-side of the economy the importance of government spending on merit goods, public goods and infrastructure the importance of government spending as a means of influencing the distribution of income through public services and state benefits the importance of government spending as a means of regulating AD, e.g. use of higher government spending to increase AD to encourage growth and to reduce unemployment. Effective evaluation may be to: consider short-term versus long-term consequences examine the impact on different stakeholders discuss advantages and disadvantages prioritize the arguments. Fiscal Policy SL May 2011, P2 2(d) Using information from the text/data and your knowledge of economics, evaluate the likely effectiveness of the German government’s fiscal policies designed to boost the economy and reduce unemployment. [8 marks] Responses may include: nsionary fiscal policy. Possible strengths of the policy responses by the German government: increased government spending should increase aggregate demand stimulus spending should increase consumer and business confidence (paragraph ) stimulus payments will reduce tax payments by consumers and businesses increased social welfare spending should allow more people in Germany to maintain an adequate standard of living increased demand for goods and services may require more people to be employed and reduce the level of unemployment supply side policies leading to an increase in LRAS and a lower natural rate of unemployment (paragraph ) cuts in personal income tax and corporate tax may produce a positive effect on AS (paragraph ). Possible weaknesses of the policy responses by the German government: the government response has been hesitant, slow and not large enough to outweigh 6 Syllabus Level Year , Paper Question Mark Scheme the impact of the global economic crisis (figures for the first stimulus package of 12 billion euros are proportionally small) (paragraphs and ) many of the measures will not have an impact until 2010 (paragraph ) increased saving by consumers may reduce the impact of increased government spending increased demand for goods may be satisfied by using existing stocks of produced goods the export sector may not be assisted by the spending the planned deficit budgets will require increased government borrowing which will increase public debt the increased government spending may cause a sharp increase in inflation when recovery begins in 2010 (paragraph ). Effective evaluation may be to: consider short-term versus long-term consequences examine the impact on different stakeholders discuss advantages and disadvantages prioritize the arguments. Fiscal policy multiplier HL November 2010, P2 4. A government decides to increase its spending on new roads, recognizing that there will be a multiplier effect on national income. Using a numerical example, explain what may determine the size of the multiplier. Candidates may include the following: a definition of the multiplier a definition of national income an explanation of the multiplier and its effect on national income an identification of leakages/withdrawals and injections/additions as factors that determine the size of the multiplier an explanation that the size of the multiplier depends on the marginal propensity to consume or on the marginal propensity to inject or add income to the circular flow e.g. the higher the MPC the higher the value of the multiplier an explanation that the size of the multiplier depends on the marginal propensity to save or, generally, on the marginal propensity to withdraw or leak out of income from the circular flow, e.g. the higher the MPS the lower the value of the multiplier a numerical example using one of the formulae for the multiplier an explanation of the numerical example. Fiscal policy and monetary policy HL May 2010, P1 2(b) Evaluate the likely effects on the economy of relying on demandside policies to reduce the unemployment rate. [15 marks] Answers may include: an explanation of the use of interest rates to reduce the unemployment rate an explanation of the use of increased government spending/lower taxation levels to reduce the unemployment rate an explanation of the linkage between lower interest rates and AD an explanation of the “crowding out” effect resulting from government borrowing to increase government spending an explanation of the linkage between increased government spending and lower taxation and AD a consideration of the suitability of demand-side policies for different types of unemployment the impact on output, growth, inflation and the balance of payments use of AD/AS diagrams AD moving to the right causes inflation on the vertical part of the AS curve 7 Syllabus Level Year , Paper Question Mark Scheme the inappropriateness of lower interest rates/higher government spending/ lower taxation in dealing with real-wage or natural unemployment demand-side measures effective against demand-deficient unemployment supply-side measures to deal with unemployment the problems associated with increased government spending (running a budget deficit) the problem of inelastic response of consumption and investment to lower interest rates the problem of time lags. Examiners should be aware that candidates may take a different approach which if appropriate, should be rewarded. Effective evaluation may be to: consider short-term versus long-term consequences examine the impact on different stakeholders discuss advantages and disadvantages prioritize the arguments. Fiscal policy and Supplyside policy SL November 2010, P1 2. (a) Using appropriate diagrams, explain the difference between demand-side and supply-side economic policies. [10 marks] Answers should include: a definition of monetary policy a definition of fiscal policy an explanation of demand-side policies an explanation of fiscal policy as a demand-side instrument an explanation of monetary policy as a demand-side instrument use of an AD/AS diagram to illustrate the likely impact on AD an explanation of supply-side policies an explanation of the impact of supply-side policies use of an AD/AS diagram to illustrate the likely impact on AS examples of supply-side policies. Fiscal Policy Crowding out HL May 2011, P2, 3. A government decides to introduce a major increase in its spending programmes. Explain how this may lead to “crowding out” effects. Candidates may include: a definition of “crowding out” an explanation of financial “crowding out”; i.e. that by running a budget deficit government increases demand for loanable funds, leading to increased interest rates and thus reduced private investment and private consumption an explanation of physical (resource) “crowding out”; i.e. that increased government spending reallocates factors of production away from the private and towards the public sector, particularly when the economy is at or near full employment an explanation of “crowding out” in terms of it being a criticism of the use of Keynesian demand management economics by neo-classical or monetarist economists a diagram showing the demand for, and supply of, loanable funds with increased demand leading to raised interest rates an AD/AS diagram showing the impact of government spending on AD and the subsequent decline due to “crowding out” May 2009, P2 4. Explain the possible impact on the distribution of income of a government shifting its main source of tax revenue from progressive 4. Explain the possible impact on the distribution of income of a government shifting its main source of tax revenue from progressive direct taxes to regressive indirect taxes. Candidates may include any of the following: explanation of progressive direct taxes explanation of regressive indirect taxes examples of direct and Income inequalities 8 Syllabus Income Inequality Level HL Year , Paper May 2011, P1 Question Mark Scheme direct taxes to regressive indirect taxes. indirect taxes impact of a reduction in direct taxes on the distribution of income impact of a rise in indirect taxes on the distribution of income in terms of equality and equity use of the Lorenz curve. Answers should include: a definition of income distribution, as one of the goals of macroeconomic policy. 2. (a) Explain two policies a government might use to redistribute income. [10 marks] Plus any two of the following: progressive, regressive and proportional taxation (a diagram may be used) switching the burden of taxation between direct and indirect (more regressive) taxes transfer payments, minimum wage use of property or wealth taxes for redistributive purposes. Answers may include: a method of describing or measuring income equality or inequality such as the Lorenz curve and/or Gini coefficient the redistributive effects of merit goods in an economy which provides them extensively reference to the redistributive effects of government subsidies. Answers should include: a definition of income distribution, as one of the goals of macroeconomic policy. Income Inequality Income inequality HL HL May 2011, P1 May 2010, P2 2(b) “Measures to promote greater income equality should be a key feature of government economic policy.” Evaluate this proposition. [15 marks] 4. With the aid of a diagram, explain how an increase in transfer Answers may include: a definition of income equality reference to the difficulty and disagreement over “fair” distribution consideration of benefits of greater income equality such as reduction of poverty, increase in consumption of the poor, greater incentives for low income groups, attainment of economic development definitions of the four objectives of government economic policy, with an explanation that income equality is a fifth and not always considered as important consideration of the Laffer curve consideration of the presumed disincentive effects of taxation reference to the positive externalities of merit goods such as education and health care for lower income groups consideration of the normative nature of the statement in the question the positive multiplier effects resulting from transferring income from sectors with high MPS to sectors with high MPC a reference to where the economy is in the business cycle, as an influence on whether greater income equality would be a key feature of government economic policy. N.B. Some candidates may mention the balanced-budget multiplier in connection with the last bullet point. In attempting evaluation candidates might point to the fact that arguments for greater or less equality coexist within economics and that notions of income equality and fairness are not the same. Effective evaluation may be to: consider short-term versus long-term consequences examine the impact on different stakeholders discuss advantages and disadvantages prioritize the arguments. Candidates may include: a definition of transfer payments a definition of the Lorenz curve 9 Syllabus Level Inflation Inflation HL Year , Paper Question Mark Scheme payments to the poorest households in a nation is likely to affect the Lorenz curve and the Gini coefficient of that nation. a definition of the Gini coefficient a diagram illustrating a Lorenz curve and the Gini coefficient an explanation that an increase in transfer payments to the poorest households can lead to an improvement in income distribution, by increasing the incomes of lower income groups an explanation that an improvement in income distribution will cause the Lorenz curve to move towards the line of absolute equality an explanation that the Gini coefficient (index) will become lower indicating a more equitable distribution of income. May 2009, P1 2. (a) Explain the possible causes of a rise in the rate of inflation in an economy. [10 marks] May 2010, P2 3. Explain how inflation can be measured and explain three problems associated with the measurement of inflation. Answers should include: definition of inflation explanation of a rise in the rate of inflation explanation of the rise in terms of an increase in aggregate demand (AD) explanation of the rise in terms of an increase in costs (AS). Answers may include: explanation of the rise in terms of an increase in the money supply (accept reference to MV = PT) use of an AD/AS diagram to illustrate the rise in AD use of an AD/AS diagram to illustrate the rise in costs factors which may cause AD to rise, e.g. lower taxation, higher government spending factors which may cause AS to rise, e.g. lower productivity, wage increases the impact of external shocks such as a rise in oil prices reference to other relevant factors such as expectations and a depreciating exchange rate. Candidates may include: a definition of inflation measures of inflation such as a price index, retail price index, deflator, price deflator discussion of basket of goods (regimen), weighting, base year, regional issues (country and city). Problems associated with the measurement of inflation: price index based on purchasing preferences of “typical” household errors in the collection of data changes in consumption habits over time quality and types of goods and services change over time changes in producer prices are excluded one-off events such as seasonal variations, oil price shocks international comparisons. Inflation SL May 2009 3(d) Using information from the text/data and your knowledge of economics, evaluate factors that could have caused China’s inflation to increase recently. [8 marks] Responses may include: a definition of inflation an explanation of the difference between demand-pull and cost-push inflation. Diagrams illustrating these two causes of inflation may be included evaluation may be in terms of short-term and long-term impacts on inflation. An evaluation of factors which could have caused rising inflation such as: rising aggregate demand (consumption, investment, government spending, net exports) excess demand above potential growth external shocks, such as increased oil prices increased costs of electricity, water, bro costs, now exceeding 10 Syllabus Level Year , Paper Question Inflation – cost push SL November 2010, P2 © Using an AD/AS diagram, explain how wage increases create cost push inflation (paragraph ). [4 marks] Macroeconomic performance HL May 2009, P3 3(d) Using information from the text/data and your knowledge of economics, evaluate the economic performance of Russia and Poland since the 1990s. [8 marks] Mark Scheme Candidates who incorrectly label diagrams cannot be rewarded with full marks. Examiners must be aware that candidates may take a different approach which if appropriate, should be rewarded. If there is no direct reference to the data, then candidates may not be rewarded beyond level 2. Effective evaluation may be to: consider short-term versus long-term consequences examine the impact on different stakeholders discuss advantages and disadvantages prioritize the arguments. For drawing a correctly labelled AD/AS diagram, which shows a leftward shift of SRAS and higher price level and for explaining that wages are a cost of production and that higher wages will lead to higher production costs which will be passed on in the form of higher prices leading to cost push inflation. Responses may include: Positives for Russia: Russia has exhibited rising growth rates throughout the period 2002–2006 ranging between 5 % in 2002 to above 10 % in 2005–2006 unemployment in Russia is hovering around 7 % and dropping, significantly below Poland’s. corruption may result in less economic growth high degree of commodity dependence (gas/oil etc.) (“Russia has come to depend on a small number of companies in the na revenues from these sectors may have contributed to its growth but also to a high current account surplus (between 8 % and 12 % of GDP) which has exerted pressure on the ruble to appreciate and thus eroded the competitiveness of other export oriented industries this type of growth is not sustainable and is risky as any downturn in the world economy will immediately lower Russian growth inflation has also been high (higher than Poland’s but dropping from a high of 16 % in 2002 down to slightly less than 12 % in 2006 which could undermine growth in the long run as non-oil investments may be hurt. Positives for Poland: growth rates are rising to around 4 % per annum which is satisfactory for a transition economy and may be more sustainable than Russia strengthened property rights and monetary controls, privatized and modernized its private sector which encouraged economic growth, employment and income generation inflation has been kept a good levels between 1 % and 4 % even though the drop in 2006 to less than 1 % may warn of the risk of deflation. Negatives for Poland: unemployment has been very high (above 12 % throughout the period) but at least seems to be decreasing the high unemployment may be the result of both tight policies as inflation has been kept low but also of rigidities in the labour market (data and component the current account deficit has ranged between 2 and 4 % of GDP so it is not a problem. Candidates could make a judgment on the importance of factors contributing to the strong/weak economic performance of Russia and Poland or they could compare the two economies and make a judgment as 11 Syllabus Level Year , Paper Question Monetary Policy HL November 2010, P3 3 (d) Using information from the text/data and your knowledge of economics, evaluate the consequences for the UK economy if the Bank of England were to raise interest rates from 5 % as suggested in paragraph . [8 marks] Monetary policy SL November 2010, P2 (d) Using information from the text/data and your knowledge of economics, evaluate the consequences for Iceland’s economy if it maintains tight monetary policies. [8 marks] Mark Scheme to which economy has performed better, justifying their judgment. Responses may include: Negative consequences: may move to a recession (paragraph ) consumer confidence will fall further (paragraph ) C and I will fall, affecting AD (paragraph ) unemployment will increase further (paragraph ) household spending will fall as debt repayments increase the exchange rate may increase, harming export competitiveness rise in business costs, which may cause cost push inflation negative wealth effects. Positive consequences: inflation may fall an increase in the exchange rate may lead to cheaper imports of raw materials, semi-finished goods, and finished goods, further reducing inflation savings may increase. Effective evaluation may be to: consider short-term versus long-term consequences examine the impact on different stakeholders discuss advantages and disadvantages prioritize the arguments. Responses should include: an explanation of tight monetary policy. Possible positive consequences include: a reduction in the inflation rate (Figure 2) an appreciation of the currency, making imports cheaper. Possible negative consequences include: a lower rate of economic growth (Figure 1) a worsening of the current account deficit as the exchange rate increases (Figure 3) increased unemployment (Figure 4) a fall in the growth rate of per capita income (paragraph ) a reduction in the rising entrepreneurship (paragraph ) changes in the distribution of income. Effective evaluation may be to: consider short-term versus long-term consequences examine the impact on different stakeholders discuss advantages and disadvantages prioritize the arguments. Neo-classical economics HL November 2010, P2 3. Using a diagram, and assuming a neo-classical aggregate Examiners should be aware that candidates may take a different approach which if appropriate, should be rewarded. If there is no direct reference to the text/data, then candidates may not be rewarded beyond level 2. Candidates may include the following: a definition of aggregate demand 12 Syllabus Level Year , Paper Question Mark Scheme demand/aggregate supply model, explain the short-term and longterm effects of a rise in aggregate demand when a country is at full employment. a definition of full employment an explanation of neo-classical aggregate demand/aggregate supply model a diagram showing a neo-classical LRAS with AD and SRAS intersecting at the LRAS and a subsequent shift of AD to the right an explanation that in the short-term there will be an increase in output and the price level, producing an inflationary gap an identification of the inflationary gap on the x-axis an explanation that the higher price level means that costs of production rise as workers negotiate higher wages to compensate for inflation an explanation that in the long-term the SRAS curve will shift to the left a conclusion that the long-term effect is an increase in the price level with no change in real output. Neo-classical economics SL November 2010, P2 3(b) Using an appropriate diagram, explain the likely effect of aggregate demand increasing “beyond potential output” (paragraph ). [4 marks] For drawing a correctly labelled AD/AS diagram which shows AD and SRAS intersecting to the right of LRAS and for explaining that if AD increases beyond potential output, the effect would be inflation. Teacher note: once the capacity of the economy is reached further increases in aggregate demand cannot be met by increases in aggregate supply. Consequently inflation occurs – firms raise their prices across the economy and the price level thus increases. Supply-side Policies HL May 2011, P2 4. Explain two policies that a government may use to attempt to lower levels of equilibrium unemployment. Candidates may include: a definition of equilibrium unemployment or unemployment types of equilibrium unemployment or unemployment an explanation of any two of the following supply-side policies: – education and training – reduction of trade union power – abolition of minimum wage laws – reduction of unemployment benefits – reduction of personal income taxes – any of the appropriate supply-side policies an explanation of appropriate demand-side policies use of a diagram to illustrate possible effects of policies use of a diagram to illustrate equilibrium unemployment or unemployment. Supply-side Policies Supply-side HL HL November 2010, P1 November 2. (a) Explain how supply-side improvements to an economy may be achieved through the use of taxes and government spending. [10 marks] Answers should include: an explanation of “supply-side improvements” use of AD/AS diagrams an explanation of how taxes and government spending may be used to affect AS, e.g. through: 2(b) Evaluate the use of supply-side Answers may include: – greater government spending on healthcare, education and training – less government spending on benefits – a reduction in income tax to increase work incentives – lower corporation tax to encourage investment – lower indirect taxes to reduce business costs. Answers may include: distinction between SRAS and LRAS. 13 Syllabus Level Policies Year , Paper Question Mark Scheme 2010, P1 policies to reduce unemployment. [15 marks] a definition of unemployment a definition of supply-side policies examples of supply-side policies the concept of a natural rate of unemployment the importance of the different types of unemployment, e.g. demand deficient, frictional and structural an explanation of how supply-side policies may work to reduce unemployment in the longer term use of AD/AS analysis, showing LRAS shifting to the right an assessment of the effectiveness of such measures unemployment beyond the control of national governments, e.g. arising from demand-side shocks or international recession consideration of the use and effectiveness of alternative short-term demand-side measures to reduce unemployment, i.e. fiscal and monetary policies an evaluation of the effectiveness of particular supply-side policies, e.g.: – tax cuts – cuts in welfare benefits – education and training/retraining – privatization/deregulation – trade union policies. Effective evaluation may be to: consider short-term versus long-term consequences examine the impact on different stakeholders discuss advantages and disadvantages prioritize the arguments. Supply-side policies SL November 2010, P1 2 (b) Evaluate the use of supply-side policies to improve the performance of an economy. [15 marks] Answers may include: a distinction between market-oriented and interventionist supply-side policies advantages of supply-side policies in terms of their impact on: – productivity – economic growth – employment – inflation – current account – distribution of income use of AD/AS diagrams to illustrate the above Disadvantages of supply-side policies in terms of: – welfare benefits – cost of funding them – public services – exploitation of labour – time it takes them to work. Effective evaluation may be to: consider short-term versus long-term consequences examine the impact on different stakeholders 14 Syllabus Level Year , Paper Question Mark Scheme discuss advantages and disadvantages prioritize the arguments. Unemployment HL May 2010, P1 2. (a) Explain why a country may wish to reduce its unemployment rate. [10 marks] Answers should include: an explanation of the unemployment rate an explanation of the types or components of unemployment an explanation for wishing to reduce unemployment in terms of the various costs of unemployment. This may include the impact on: – the unemployed themselves e.g. reduced income, stress levels, selfesteem – society e.g. poverty, crime, vandalism – economy as a whole e.g. actual output is less than potential output (to the left of the LRAS curve); or economy is at a point inside the PPC – opportunity cost of government spending on unemployment benefits, less tax revenues available for other purposes a government might wish to reduce unemployment in order to raise tax revenue. Unemployment HL May 2009, P3 3(a) Define the following terms indicated in bold in the text: (i) structural unemployment (paragraph ) Unemployment SL May 2011, P2 2(c) Using an AD/AS diagram, explain one type of unemployment experienced in Germany in 2009. [4 marks] Unemployment SL May 2009, P1 Unemployment SL May 2009, P2 2. (a) There are various types of unemployment. Explain how any three types of unemployment may cause a rise in the unemployment rate of an economy. [10 marks] 1a(ii) unemployment (paragraph ). Unemployment SL May 2009, P2 2 a(i) structural unemployment Any one of the following would be appropriate: long-term unemployment that is caused as a result of a fall in the demand for a particular type of labour unemployment that occurs as a result of the changing structure of an economy resulting from changes in demand/supply and/or technology and/or trade patterns unemployment that occurs when there is a mismatch between the skills of unemployed workers and the jobs available unemployment that exists as a result of rigidities in the labour market. For drawing an AD/AS (or ADL/ASL) diagram showing a shift of AD (or ADL) to the left and for explaining that unemployment is demand deficient/cyclical because of the falling aggregate demand and the resultant fall in the demand for workers. Answers should include: definition of unemployment an explanation of three of structural, frictional, seasonal, demand deficient (cyclical), real wage unemployment (classical) explanation of the term “unemployment rate” and how the three types of unemployment explained could increase the unemployment rate. Answers may include: diagrammatic illustration of the above. An explanation that it is: people of working age (those in the labour force) willing and able to work actively seeking work at the current wage rate who are without work. Any two of the above points would be sufficient. Any one of the following would be appropriate: long-term unemployment that is caused as a result of a fall in the demand for a particular type of labour unemployment that occurs as a result of the changing structure of an economy resulting from changes in demand/supply and/or technology unemployment that occurs when there is a mismatch between the skills of unemployed workers and the jobs available unemployment that exists as a result of rigidities in the labour market. 15 16