Second Exam, Econ. 310, Spring 2004. Name:____________________________________ Score:_______ Question 1 (40 points). Consider the firm depicted on the next page which is producing 100,000 units of output domestically using 4,000 workers at a total cost of $100,000 at point A. 1. If the cost of labor in the U.S. is $20 per unit and the cost of capital is $100, how many units of capital is the firm using. Place you answer and your calculations in the box below and label all relevant values on your graph. 2. Suppose the firm outsourced production to India where labor costs are only $5 per unit. Depict the short and long run effects of outsourcing on your graph. 3. What effect will outsourcing have on the capital/labor ratio? Will the number of jobs in the world, India and the U.S. combined increase of decrease? Depict on your graph and explain what is happening in the box below. 4. Compute the ATC after outsourcing or if it cannot be computed explain why. Put your computations or explanation in the box below. Version A Second Exam, Econ. 310, Spring 2004. Capital A 100,000 4,000 Labor Version A Second Exam, Econ. 310, Spring 2004. Question 2 (60 points). Consider the firm which outsources from question (1). Draw their unit cost curves on the graphs before and after outsourcing on the next page assuming that the market clearing price is P1 before any outsourcing occurs. 1. Draw the unit cost curves for a second firm which refuses to outsource on the appropriate graph. 2. If the prevailing market price of the good is P1 depict the quantity produced by each firm and it’s profit or loss. 3. Use the market supply and demand curves below show the short and long run effects of outsourcing. What will happen to the number of firms, market output, firm output, short and long run profits, and the number of firms that outsource. 4. Carryover the effects from your market supply and demand curves onto the unit cost curves of the firms and show the effects of outsourcing on both firms profits and output decision. 5. Discuss the winners and losers from outsourcing in the box below. Version A Second Exam, Econ. 310, Spring 2004. Firm which outsources Firm which doesn’t outsource P1 Output Output Version A Second Exam, Econ. 310, Spring 2004. Price S Before Outsourcing P1 Demand Q Version A Second Exam, Econ. 310, Spring 2004. Copyright 2004 MediaNews Group, Inc. and ANG Newspapers The Oakland Tribune (Oakland, CA) March 28, 2004 Sunday HEADLINE: Global repositioning: As companies take jobs off shore, workers wonder who's safe? BYLINE: Jennifer Inez Ward - STAFF WRITER BODY: Natasha Humphries had a degree from Stanford University and a job as a senior software engineer with handheld computer maker Palm. Like many tech workers, she thought she was well protected from the exodus of jobs overseas.But after working both in the Bay Area and in India to help develop the company's offshore service program, she herself was laid off in August during a round of work force reductions. Humphries says she lost her job because her work was transferred overseas. "Everyone thinks they're immune," she said. "That they have a supreme set of skills that will shield them from displacement. I thought my role in the company would continue to evolve." Today, the continuing transfer of technology and back office jobs to other countries has left highly trained workers like Humphries, 30, pondering whether their next career move will be safe from offshore outsourcing. "My question is, what do we train for?" said Humphries, of Santa Clara. "What job is offshore proof?"That question looms large as the economic recovery continues without a significant boost in jobs. Offshore outsourcing, once the talk of policy wonks, has turned into a hot political issue that has stirred debate among unions, politicians and Fortune 500 executives. "There's no question that the whole phenomenon of outsourcing has gathered momentum," said Ashok Deo Bardhan, senior research associate at the Fisher Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics at the University of California, Berkeley. It's not clear exactly how many jobs have been lost to outsourcing. The AFL-CIO says the United States has lost nearly 3 million private-sector jobs since 2001, many going to overseas workers. A 2002 study by Forrester Research offers a glimpse into the future if outsourcing continues. The study predicts that over the next 15 years 2.2 million American service industry jobs and $136 billion in wages will move offshore to countries like India, Russia, China and the Philippines. India's information technology service sector, the primary destination of business services outsourcing from Western countries, now directly employs more than 200,0000 people, according to a recent UC-Berkeley study. It accounts for about $2.3 billion in exports, of which more than 70 percent are to the United States. Version A Second Exam, Econ. 310, Spring 2004. The Bay Area, rich with white collar technology jobs, is especially vulnerable to outsourcing. Bay Area companies say outsourcing can be beneficial to the local economy, but so far no one is offering a solution to replace jobs lost overseas. Experts say the current wave of offshore outsourcing involves so-called "back office services" _ call centers, accounting and even processing of tax returns. "The savings are significant enough that there continues to be an incentive to move some services offshore," said Bardhan, who co-authored the Berkeley report on outsourcing. Jobs most vulnerable to the new wave of outsourcing, researchers say, include medical transcription services, stock market research for financial firms and other back-office jobs. The primary reason for outsourcing continues to be cutting labor costs by taking advantage of the wage differences overseas.For example, the Berkeley study said, the hourly wage for an accountant in the United States averages $23.35, while in India the wage drops to between $6 and $15. Not everyone believes outsourcing is bad. A recent study by the American Electronics Association said offshore outsourcing is responsible for only a small portion of recent job losses. The study said offshore outsourcing will be beneficial to the U.S. economy in the long term. Bardhan said offshore outsourcing did not create the recent rise in unemployment. "Most of the jobs loss in the Bay Area or in the United States as a whole have come about due to the [economic] downturn and not outsourcing," he said. "We've seen outsourcing in manufacturing occur in parallel with strong growth in services. A significant share of the services growth would not have occurred without the manufacturing outsourcing, which then led to lower-cost computer products and a rising demand for computer services." And local business leaders say outsourcing jobs is an important component to keeping their companies competitive in a fast moving global market. Outsourcing proponents said that while cheaper labor is a factor for moving services overseas, many companies believe the quality of overseas workers and easy access to international markets make outsourcing key to being successful.At Mattson Technologies in Fremont, outsourcing is more than just about taking advantage of the lower wage costs overseas, said Neal Holmlund, vice president of operations for the semiconductor equipment company. As part of a strategy to shield against the boombust cycle that's part of the semiconductor industry, Mattson has increased its outsourcing operations to include back office services like payroll production. Version A Second Exam, Econ. 310, Spring 2004. Holmlund said the company saves between 20 and 30 percent on its U.S. costs by utilizing offshore outsourcing for its manufacturing production. "For us and other [companies], yeah there are cost benefits to outsourcing," he said. "But another significant aspect is meeting the challenges of a cyclical industry. Outsourcing allows us to be flexible and respond to our customers' demands in a timely fashion." In particular, Holmlund said outsourcing allows the company to tap into additional resources provided by offshore business partners. "Because we can draw leverage for our partners' resources, we can respond faster to rapidly changing business conditions," he said. John Dillon, chief executive officer of Navis, said his privately held software company does business around the world and having employees overseas is basic to its operations. Of the company's 250 employees, 40 work in India. Dillon said those overseas workers cost four times less than employees in the Bay Area. "In Oakland we focus on doing creative, high-level design work," Dillon said. "The more mundane functions are done overseas in India." Dillon said that overseas work includes fixing bugs and defects in software products. "Those tasks are not glamorous or exciting jobs," Dillon said. "They're tedious. And it frees up my engineers here and allows them to work on more high-end problems." Dillon points out that 75 percent of the company's revenues come from international markets. That revenue, he said, comes back to Oakland, helping the local economy. "I have about 32 percent of my employees located outside the United States," Dillon said. "But two-thirds of my revenue comes from outside the United States. So, if you think about it, we're a net importer, rather and an exporter of jobs."Dillon said outsourcing is the reality of the technology world. "Like it or not, we're in a global market," he said. "We really don't have much of a choice, we have to stay competitive and take advantage of the different labor rates." As businesses and workers grapple with how global economies are changing the U.S. job market, the issue has moved into the political arena in this presidential election year. In a recent Gallup Poll, 58 percent of Americans surveyed said offshoring of jobs will be "very important" when they are deciding their votes for president. The Gallup poll also found that 61 percent of said they are concerned that a friend or relative might lose a job because the employer is moving that job to a foreign country. And earlier this month a bill was introduced in Congress aimed at deterring U.S. companies from outsourcing jobs overseas. The Defending American Jobs Act of 2004 was sponsored by 50 legislators. In addition, about 20 states have bills pending that Version A Second Exam, Econ. 310, Spring 2004. would limit outsourcing. The debate on outsourcing reached a new level when executives from Dell, Intel, IMB and others urged the Bush administration not to regulate the practice. "There is no job that is America's God-given right anymore," said Hewlett-Packard Chief Executive Carly Fiorina in testimony before Congress. "We have to compete for jobs." Proponents of outsourcing argue that any protectionist measures will more than likely backfire. Bardhan said enacting "protectionist responses" would be tantamount to "shooting oneself in the foot." "Attempts to halt outsourcing and promote protectionism could be quite costly," he said. "Protectionism undermines efficiency and results in misallocation of resources." Still, while companies can see immediate benefits to offshoring, workers say there are few places to turn once a job has been moved overseas. Experts say there's no clear road map to helping displaced workers and ensuring that high-skill jobs remain in the United States. "It's not clear what new skills would allow easy transition from the outsourced occupation to remaining positions," said Bardhan. "A successful response to business and worker displacement from outsourcing would probably involve mechanisms that ensure that some of the gains from outsourcing are distributed more equitably and that investment is made in research and development, new business development and education." Stephanie Moore, an analyst with Forrester, said companies and workers must focus on keeping high-skill jobs in the United States. "America has to do a better job of educating young people and focusing on new technology that will keep high skilled jobs here," she said. As one of those high-skilled workers, Humphries, remains unemployed but is actively searching for work. Humphries said her experience has made her become more politically active and she is currently working with TechsUnite.org to speak out against outsourcing. One of the strongest voices against offshore outsourcing is organized labor. Unions like the Communication Workers of America have emerged as strong opponents of outsourcing and sites like TechsUnite.org have tapped into the frustration and anger many technology workers feel. "Exporting technology jobs is a serious economic threat to middle America," said Marcus Courtney, president of WashTech, an organization of technology workers affiliated with the Communication Workers of America. "When it comes to wages, benefits and job security, exporting jobs is not a recipe for more jobs in the future, but a recipe for Version A Second Exam, Econ. 310, Spring 2004. corporate greed." Courtney, with help from the CWA, launched TechsUnite.org, to serve as a resource for technology workers. One of its main goals is to fight the movement of technology jobs off shore. Courtney said that 2,000 Californians subscribe to TechsUnite.org. As offshoring continues, workers will find themselves in a bind, Courtney predicted. "What jobs can we tell people to train for that isn't going to be exported overseas two or three years later?" he said.There is, however, a counter-side to offshore outsourcing. Globalization has allowed some startups to take a reverse path by launching overseas and then moving the majority of their operations to the United States as their U.S. market grows. Pronto Networks, a Pleasanton software firm that counts among its clients Sun Microsystems, said without a global work force the company would not have survived. The company first started in India, said Ammar Afif, chief financial officer of Pronto. Afif said it was critical to start developing its software products for Wi-Fi providers in Bangalore, India. The company's founders are originally from India, but lived in the Unites States for several year before traveling back and trying to develop a software product. Today, Pronto has 45 employees in Pleasanton and 35 in India. "There are positive aspects to offshoring," Afif said. "Had we not started in India, it would have been difficult for us to succeed. The type of capital needed to start a company here would have been hard to attain." Version A Second Exam, Econ. 310, Spring 2004. India: back office to the world.(a discussion of the development of the Indian economy, which is focusing on office operations) Contemporary Review, April, 2003, by Alex Ninian COMPETITION in industry and commerce all over the world is increasing despite, and perhaps even because of, the proliferation of mergers and acquisitions and the creation of global giants. The relentless and mounting pressure of competition in the marketplace continues to drive a never-ending need for companies to reduce costs and keep them to a minimum. Over the last 25 years this has led to businesses in developed, mainly Western, countries transferring manufacturing operations to lower-cost centres, usually in Asia and the Far East. Now the same pressures are forcing managements to look at transferring office operations in the same way, and they are finding that such a task is being facilitated by the continuing developments in computers, information technology and communications. The first international outsourcing developments involved Ireland and Australia and to some extent Holland because of their infrastructure and their pool of educated labour as well as their use of the English language but this has become largely outdated because of the very limited cost advantage they offer. Now attention is focussing on India, Sri Lanka, Malaysia, the Philippines and even China. These all offer labour and other cost savings, but the other criteria of infrastructure, education and, particularly, English mean that India is far and away the favourite location for this burgeoning and lucrative business. The size of its foreign outsourcing operations is larger than all its competitors put together. With its millions of educated and English-speaking people, India is emerging as the back office of America, Britain and the Western world. If you think cotton, tea and rice when you think of India, think again. Now think call centres, help desks and credit card servicing. This is the 'sunshine sector' of the Indian economy and is the fastest growing industry in the country. It began with back-office work for Western-world insurance companies, stockbrokers and banks where the direct customer contact and the front office was in the US or UK but the calculations and data handling were done at the end of satellite lines in Delhi or Mumbai. But now much of the front office operation is in India as well. American or British customers who ring a local bank number in Denver or Manchester could well find that they are answered and satisfactorily dealt with by a trained operator in Bangalore, in Version A Second Exam, Econ. 310, Spring 2004. many cases without the customer knowing that they were not being dealt with locally. Some American companies even train their Indian operators to speak with an American accent and to comment on the weather in the caller's area. American companies even train their Indian operators to speak with an American accent and to comment on the weather in the caller's area. As already mentioned, the main bases of success are language, education and cost and in this regard India produces some two million graduates per year who speak English, many of whom are qualified in accountancy, computer studies, business and commerce. Basic salaries for bottom-of-the-scale operators might be in the region of $2,000 to $3,000 per annum, but the economics of the issue is based on 'fully loaded costs' which means not just the salary of the operator but the cost of his or her office, holidays, pensions, insurance and social costs, sick leave, computer time and secretarial and other support. Many analysts of the scene report that fully loaded costs in India amount to about one third compared with like-for-like workers in the West. Types of Operation A general description of what these centres do would include loan enquiries, credit card work, accounts reconciliation, the processing of insurance claims, bank transactions, invoicing, collections, and even cheque writing. More than a quarter of the Fortune top 500 companies in the world are doing this kind of work in India, including British Airways, American Express, Citibank, HSBC, GE and AT&T. The field is also attracting the attention of analysts and consultants who can sell advisory services to the growing number of organisations interested in the trend. Reports have been prepared by McKinsey, KPMG, and Deutsche Bank, among others, and these have been used as sources for some of the information used here. The main category is Customer Care which includes the familiar call centre activity and help desks, but also covers sales data and back-up for field sales people who, in turn, deal with customers. Human Resources and Payment Services are developing very fast -- a field which includes employee records and data, payroll handling, and cheque processing -- and could even overtake Customer Care in the foreseeable future. Finance and Administration is another area where the cost factor is most important and operations in data analysis, insurance claims, inventory management, as well as a range of accountancy operations are being transferred from the West to India on a daily basis. Version A Second Exam, Econ. 310, Spring 2004. The next stage of advance is in higher-level work where low cost will still be a factor but the need will be for intellectual, value-added services where the scope is huge and already a start is being made in providing remote technical research and development, computer systems development and computer systems maintenance. Economic Effects in India Economists and practitioners in this field often refer to it as 'information technology enabled services' or ITES and they see India as far and away the world leader in ITES, being at least five times the size of its nearest rival, the Philippines. It currently employs over 100,000 people and accounts for nearly $2 billion in revenues which are virtually all hard currency foreign earnings. Its annual growth rate over the last two years has been over 50 per cent per annum which puts it as the fastest growing industry in the country and the nation's fastest growing foreign currency earner. It is still in its start-up phase, going from almost nothing to having 400 centres in the last five years and adding 50 more per year and, by all accounts, it still has a very long way to go. A report prepared in 2002 by the National Association of Software and Service Companies (NASSCOM) and McKinsey has forecast that in five years the ITES sector in India could amount to $24 billion, or 3 per cent of the country's GDP, and employ up to 1.5 million workers. If the forecasts are anything like correct it means that ITES will account for 30 per cent of foreign exchange inflows. Apart from the human and personal effects of all this innovation there are further economic knock-on effects. Most of the employees in the industry are in their twenties and thirties and their new earnings are having an impact on the providers of products and services to this specific age group. Furthermore, they mostly work for and with Western organisations and spend much of their lives in contact, albeit remotely, with Westerners and this results in tastes and purchasing habits becoming increasingly American or European. This, in turn, drives demand for jeans, trainers, music, videos, and fast food and drink. Property is another sector experiencing the ripple effect from ITES, mainly through the demand for modern offices and open plan work centres. Technology parks are springing up in and around the major cities creating new demand for land for the creation of suitable modern premises and old, single-storied slums like Gurgaon and Malad in Mumbai are being transformed into vast, shiny, air-conditioned office complexes. Infrastructure Version A Second Exam, Econ. 310, Spring 2004. While India has so many features going for it, it does have increasing competition, mainly from the Philippines and China, and the government is having to take an overview of its strategic position. Its endemic bureaucracy requires that new developments have to obtain a mass of consents and approvals with the inevitable risk of corruption, and a serious reduction in red tape is required. Electricity supply is still too erratic and subject to blackouts, and measures are required to improve power reliability. The telecoms industry has too little competition and telecom rates are relatively high by international comparisons. Further reform and liberalisation need to be accelerated. Employers in the industry are pressing for new college and university vocational courses and qualifications, specific to ITES, and for the setting up of vocational institutes for the outsourcing sector. India has a law called the Essential Services Maintenance Act which designates operations such as hospitals as essential services and which requires electric power suppliers to give priority to them and so avoid power failures and blackouts in these sectors. The ITES industry is not currently covered under the Act and industry leaders are pushing at government level for it to be included as a major piece of infrastructure improvement. The leaders of locally owned and operated businesses in this field have not been slow to see what the governments and national authorities have been doing in the Philippines and China to crank up their attack on the market and they have been vocal in calling for the Indian government to be more proactive. The Philippines already has a National Council to promote and co-ordinate its efforts nationally - efforts which include the release of government land and tax holidays and the offer of resident status for foreign investors. China has the disadvantage, of course, of relatively few English speakers but it is, at government level, promoting a drive to produce English speakers and is also making a national attack on the world ITES market by lowering telecom rates and setting up technology parks. Locations The largest number of individual operations are in Delhi with well over 100, including American Express and NCR. Mumbai, a major centre for Citibank, is second and still growing although wages and salaries are rising at a rate which is tending to restrict its competitiveness as compared with other cities. Bangalore, with its reputation for IT expertise, is of course a very popular destination for high tech applications. Chennai is one of the fastest growing centres, being a city with reasonably reliable power supplies and the image of the advanced and advancing south. It now has around 30 overseas companies carrying out outsourcing activities. Version A Second Exam, Econ. 310, Spring 2004. Hyderabad, Kolkata, Abmedabad, Pune and Kochi have various claims for winning market share, from low real estate and labour costs to strong local authority support, and have another 50 call centre and back-office operations among them. The Human Factor Among all the technological, economic and political factors, this new industry brings with it a personal impact on the individuals, families, groups and communities involved. As with most new developments, the effects are a mixture of the good, the not so good and the downright bad. First and foremost there are jobs and salaries to be earned which were not there before. In India's case, this is a situation which is 'all plus' with no minuses because every job is a net gain in employment and the disadvantages of any technology or location transfer, such as redundancies, are felt entirely in the Western countries which are transferring the operations. It is tending to reduce the possibility of graduate unemployment in India. And, as in most boom industries, the trend is for remuneration and benefits to improve. Some of the benefits are relatively uncommon such as unlimited coffee and soft drinks, free travel, and staff outings and parties which appeal to the new age workforce. Working hours can be something of a problem for the reason that much of the work is night work. This applies especially to 'live' operations where direct contact is required between India and employees or customers in Europe or America, where the working day is anything from 8 to 14 hours behind, meaning that 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. in the West is anything from 5 p.m. to 7 a.m. in India. This can produce negative effects in the way of sleep disorders, stress and related health problems. The huge majority of employees are female in young age groups and the working hours can also have difficult consequences on the conventions of Indian family life, social life, courtship and marriage. Whole new patterns of social contact are emerging with daytime or early evening arrangements for dates or family gatherings and the development of courtship and marriage between employees in the same workplace. Furthermore, people are having to come to terms with working alongside large numbers of others, often in reasonably close contact, and in groups which would otherwise not come together. Some of the higher-level, value-added centres employ several hundred PhDs on one site. On the more positive side many workers are able to use the unusual hours to combine work with other activities such as training for a sport or studying for a further qualification or degree. The Players Version A Second Exam, Econ. 310, Spring 2004. One of the biggest operators internationally is HSBC which has 1,500 operators in Guangzhou and Shanghai, China, as well as 2,000 in Hyderabad and Bangalore, India, plus 700 in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. At least 2,000 of this total of 4,200 are servicing the UK, including clerical processing, call handling and personal banking representatives. It is understood that twelve new personal phone bankers are being trained in Hyderabad every two weeks. Norwich Union is another company with a multinational spread to its back office work, having a centre on Colombo, Sri Lanka, as well as two in India. In February another British insurance company, Aviva plc, started a call centre in India which, it hopes, will employ 1,000 people by the end of the year. Last month British Telecom, the UK's largest fixed-line phone provider, announced plans to set up call centres in New Delhi and Bangalore. British trade unions reacted with fury in spite of BT's claim that no British workers would lose their jobs. Probably the biggest of all is GE of the US, with over 11,000 employees in three centres in India, followed by Citibank with 3,000, who work on loan processing, cheque handling and trade finance, and British Airways with 2,500 who do passenger accounting. But not all the centres in India are directly owned or run by overseas corporations, known in the jargon as captive units, and locally owned operations are springing up at an increasing rate, although the customers are overseas. The local operations, known as third-party providers, are a mixture of start-ups from scratch by entrepreneurs or by companies in related fields and they cover the whole range from simple call centres to high-value work. Daksh eServices, for example, are a local start-up who have succeeded in winning work from Amazon while Indian software giant Wipro Ltd has diversified into the ITES sector by acquisition. The biggest indigenous operation is Convergys which employs over 2,000 people and handles a dozen overseas clients. Europe and the US There are two sides to every coin and the actions in India and Asia are tending to have some reactions in Europe and the USA. There is no doubt that cost savings are being made and getting through to the bottom line of company profit and loss accounts but, inevitably, it is not all plain sailing. Many companies are being criticised by local politicians, trade unions and liberal groups, on the grounds of destroying jobs and disrupting communities at home. In the US, moves are afoot which could lead to local state laws which will require companies who are recipients of public contracts to employ only US citizens or people authorised to work in America. The state of New Jersey is taking the lead in this but it is Version A Second Exam, Econ. 310, Spring 2004. not at all clear how constitutional this would be, how far other states would follow, or how effective any state legislation might be. Can anyone imagine the US government refusing to buy Ford or GM vehicles because they produce cars overseas? In the UK similar criticisms are being made, including the suggestion that third world workers are being exploited by the UK finance industry. This seems equally hard to sustain since the Indian work force and economy are glad to get the work. Do workers in Greenock feel exploited because IBM make computers there? Furthermore, the United Nations review of parity purchasing power relative to the cost of living indicates that, for local people's purchasing patterns, [pounds sterling]1 buys five times more than it does in the UK, so that an annual salary of, say, [pounds sterling]2,000 is more like [pounds sterling]10,000 in local purchasing terms. Whatever the arguments, offshore out-sourcing by UK companies is increasing at an accelerating pace led by the banking, insurance and finance sector. In addition to the companies mentioned earlier, Lloyds TSB and Barclaycard have transferred 600 jobs to India for call handling and software development work, according to UNIFI, the finance industry union. It is also reported that insurance companies Ma, Churchill and Royal & Sun Alliance have over 500 people employed in Bangalore, Delhi and Pune, carrying out the processing of claims and developing software. Perhaps most controversial of all is the announcement of the transfer of up to 1,000 jobs from Reading to Mumbai by the Prudential which has sent shock waves through the district and the whole financial field. Until now, much of the work transferred by British companies has been back-office work, but this latest move involves primarily the call centre operation and will confirm that offshore outsourcing is now encompassing the front office as well. Job transfers in the industry had, until now, been in amounts of 50 to 200, but the Prudential's move will accelerate the growth to a total of over 5,000 by the year 2004 from the finance sector alone. When management consultancy firm Accenture published a forecast that up to 300,000 British finance jobs could go to India by the end of this decade, it was regarded by many to be unrealistic but, seeing the size and type of recent developments, it may not be so fanciful. COPYRIGHT 2003 Contemporary Review Company Ltd. in association with The Gale Group and LookSmart. COPYRIGHT 2003 Gale Version A