SAMPOL311/331:
The American Presidency
Associate professor Gunnar Grendstad
Department of Comparative Politics, University of Bergen
Fall semester 2008
Office hours: Wed 13-15 (or by appointment)
Seminar room E, Studentsenteret
Thursdays 10.15-12.00
“All told, the relationship between the presidency and the American political system is
not at all a comforting one. It is always paradoxical and often perverse” (Skowronek,
2008:78).
The seminar addresses the historical, political, and constitutional basis – both in secular and
political time – of what has become the most powerful political office on earth. The seminar
also emphasizes some general topics as well as topics pertinent to this being an election year.
Accordingly, the seminar consists of four main elements:
1. The American presidency in secular time (Milkis and Nelson).
2. The American presidency in political time (Skowronek).
3. The theory of executive power; The unitary executive theory; The vice presidency; The
Imperial Presidency; The presidency at the end of George W Bush’s two terms;
Presidential Performance; and Forecasting the 2008 (Popular) Presidential Vote.
4. A view on the unfolding of the 2008 presidential election campaign (daily reading of key
newspapers, eg, New York Times or Washington Post, is essential).
The reading consists of two books as well as book chapters and articles (see pages 2-9). The
two books are available at Studia. Articles are available on the internet or as hard copies (K) at
Studia. (Note: the syllabus can be slightly amended as deemed appropriate and/or necessary.)
Milkis, Sidney M., and Michael Nelson. 2007. The American Presidency: Origins and
Development, 1776-2007. 5th ed. Washington, DC: CQ Press.
Skowronek, Stephen. 2008. Presidential Leadership in Political Time. Reprise and
Reappraisal. Lawrence, KS: University Press of Kansas.
Grades will be determined on the basis of (1)
a take-home exam or essay, and (2)
participation in class, ie, presentations and
discussions. Participation will make up 25 %
of the grade.
Deadlines (to be confirmed later):
Essay: Nov xx.
Take home exam: Nov xx - Nov yy.
Grades posted: Dec xx
[US_Presidency_H08.2.doc – 13-Aug-08]
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1 – August 21, Introduction to the seminar
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2 – NOTE: August 25, Creating and Implementing the Presidency
Milkis & Nelson Ch 1–3, pp. 1-96
Prakash, Saikrishna Bangalore. 2008. A Taxonomy of Presidential Powers. Boston University
Law Review 88 (2):327-340.
(http://www-syst.bu.edu/law/central/jd/organizations/journals/bulr/documents/PRAKASH.pdf)
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3 – September 11, Jeffersonianism through McKinley, and the Advent of the Modern
Presidency.
Milkis & Nelson Ch 4–10, pp. 97-279
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4 – September 18, The Modern Presidency & the Rise of the Modern Vice Presidency
Milkis & Nelson Ch 11-15 & 16, pp. 280-478
Edwards, George C., and Lawrence R. Jacobs. 2008. The New Vice Presidency: Institutions
and Politics. Presidential Studies Quarterly 38 (3):369-373. http://www.blackwellsynergy.com/loi/psq
Goldstein, Joel K. 2008. The Rising Power of the Modern Vice Presidency. Presidential
Studies Quarterly 38 (3):374-389. http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/loi/psq
Moe, Richard. 2008. The Making of the Modern Vice Presidency: A Personal Reflection.
Presidential Studies Quarterly 38 (3):390-400. http://www.blackwellsynergy.com/loi/psq
Hiller, Mark, and Douglas Kriner. 2008. Institutional Change and the Dynamics of Vice
Presidential Selection. Presidential Studies Quarterly 38 (3):401-421.
http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/loi/psq
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5 – September 25, Presidential Leadership in Political Time
Skowronek, Ch 1-3, pp. ix-116.
King, Gary. 1993. The Methodology of Presidential Research. In Researching the Presidency.
Vital Questions, New Approaches, edited by G. C. Edwards III, J. H. Kessel and B. A.
Rockman. Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh Press. pp. 387-412.
(http://gking.harvard.edu/files/methpres.pdf)
Bennett, Andrew, and Colin Elman. 2006. Qualitative Research. Recent Developments in
Case Study Methods. Annual Review of Political Science 9:455-476, esp pp. 465-468.
(http://arjournals.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev.polisci.8.082103.104918)
Topic: The presidential debates
Druckman, James N. 2003. The Power of Television Images: The First Kennedy-Nixon
Debate Revisited. The Journal of Politics 65 (2):559-571.
(http://www.jstor.org/stable/3449821)
Schedule:
Friday, Sept. 26, University of Mississippi, Oxford;
Thursday, Oct. 2 The vice-presidential debate, St. Louis, Washington University;
Tuesday, Oct. 7, Nashville, Belmont University;
Wednesday, Oct. 15, Hempstead, Hofstra University.
Bonus: Presidential Debates Video Clips:
http://www.wfu.edu/~louden/Political%20Communication/PresDebateClips/mediaclipDebates.html
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6 – October 2, Forecasting the 2008 US Presidential Election
“Forecasting is the gold standard of political science.” Michael S. Lewis-Beck and
Philip Schrodt (2006).
International Journal of Forecasting, 2008, vol 24, Issue 2: Special Issue US Presidential
Election Forecasting: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/01692070
Campbell, James E., and Michael S. Lewis-Beck. 2008. US presidential election forecasting:
An introduction. International Journal of Forecasting 24 (2):189-192.
Campbell, James E. 2008. Evaluating U.S. presidential election forecasts and forecasting
equations. International Journal of Forecasting 24 (2):257-269.
Erikson, Robert S., and Christopher Wlezien. 2008. The economy and the presidential vote:
What leading indicators reveal well in advance. International Journal of Forecasting
24 (2):218-226.
Jones Jr., Randall J. 2008. The state of presidential election forecasting: The 2004 experience.
International Journal of Forecasting 24 (2):308-319.
Lewis-Beck, Michael S., and Charles Tien. 2008. Forecasting presidential elections: When to
change the model. International Journal of Forecasting 24 (2):227-236.
Abramowitz, Alan I. 2008. It's about time: Forecasting the 2008 presidential election with the
time-for-change model. International Journal of Forecasting 24 (2):209-217.
Lichtman, Allan J. 2008. The keys to the white house: An index forecast for 2008.
International Journal of Forecasting 24 (2):299-307.
Berg, Joyce E., Forrest D. Nelson, and Thomas A. Rietz. 2008. Prediction market accuracy in
the long run. International Journal of Forecasting 24 (2):283-298.
PS: Political Science & Politics, 2008, vol 41, Issue 4 (October):
http://www.apsanet.org/section_223.cfm
http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayJournal?jid=PSC
(http://apsanet.org/mtgs/program_2008/program.cfm?event=1492198)
(The eight corresponding references below will be updated as they become available)
Abramowitz, Alan I. 2008. Forecasting the 2008 Presidential Election with the Time-forChange Model. PS: Political Science & Politics 41 (4).
http://www.forecastingprinciples.com/PollyVote/images/articles/abramowitz_forecasti
ng2008_timeforchange.pdf
Campbell, James E. 2008. PS: Political Science & Politics 41 (4).
Cuzan, Alfred G. 2008. PS: Political Science & Politics 41 (4).
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Holbrook, Thomas M. 2008. PS: Political Science & Politics 41 (4).
Lewis-Beck, Michael S. 2008. PS: Political Science & Politics 41 (4).
Lockerbie, Brad. 2008. PS: Political Science & Politics 41 (4).
Norpoth, Helmut. 2008. PS: Political Science & Politics 41 (4).
Wlezien, Christopher. 2008. PS: Political Science & Politics 41 (4).
Hibbs, Douglas A. Jr. 2008. Implications of the ‘bread and peace’ model for the 2008 US
presidential election. Public Choice [Online First, Aug 13, 2008].
http://www.springerlink.com/content/f533t53183x419wl/fulltext.pdf
Also see Pollyvote:
(http://www.forecastingprinciples.com/PollyVote/index.php/who-is-polly.html)
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7 – October 9, The Imperial Presidency – The Unitary Executive Theory I
"Speculation about motivation is ordinarily unprofitable, and psychobiography is a
notoriously underdeveloped science. Nevertheless, because the Presidency is so
peculiarly personal an institution, and because the psychic drives of the man who sits
in the Oval Office so fundamentally affect the impact of each particular Presidency,
and because Nixon's destiny was to carry the logic of the imperial Presidency to the
point of no return, one cannot avoid pondering why he did things it never occurred to
Truman or Eisenhower or Kennedy or even Johnson to attempt" (Schlesinger, Arthur
M. 1974. The Imperial Presidency. London: Andre Deutsch. p. 216).
Adler, David Gray. 2003. Presidential Greatness as an Attribute of Warmaking. Presidential
Studies Quarterly 33 (3):466–483.
(http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/118841114/issue)
Schlesinger Jr., Arthur M. 2005. War and the American Presidency: W.W.Norton. Ch. 3:
‘The Imperial Presidency Redux’ pp. 45-67. (K)
Rudalevige, Andrew. 2006. The Decline and Resurgence and Decline (and Resurgence?) of
Congress: Charting a New Imperial Presidency. Presidential Studies Quarterly 36
(3):506-524. (E)
(http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/toc/psq/36/3)
Skowronek, Stephen. 2008. Presidential Leadership in Political Time. Reprise and
Reappraisal: University Press of Kansas. Ch 4 ‘Leadership by Definition: First-Term
Reflections on George W. Bush’s Political Stance’ & Ch 5 ‘The Imperial Presidency
thesis Revisited: George W. Bush at the Point of No Return’: pp.117-166.
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8 – October 16, George W. Bush – The Unitary Executive Theory II
"To repeat, Article II, 1, cl. 1, of the Constitution provides: "The executive Power shall
be vested in a President of the United States." As I described at the outset of this
opinion, this does not mean some of the executive power, but all of the executive
power. (...) It is not for us to determine, and we have never presumed to determine,
how much of the purely executive powers of government must be within the full
control of the President. The Constitution prescribes that they all are." Antonin Scalia,
dissenting in Morrison v. Olson, 487 U.S. 654, (1988).
Weisberg, Jacob. 2008. The Bush Tragedy: Random House. Ch 5, ‘The Foremost Hand,’ pp
145-182, 252-254. (K)
Cannon, Lou, and Carl M. Cannon. 2008. Reagan's Disciple: George W. Bush's Troubled
Quest for a Presidential Legacy. New York City: PublicAffairs. Chap 10: ‘Legacy’
pp. 285-325, 347-350. (K)
Fisher, Louis. 2007. Invoking Inherent Powers: A Primer. Presidential Studies Quarterly 37
(1):1-22.
(http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/118521126/abstract)
Pious, Richard M. 2007. Inherent War and Executive Powers and Prerogative Politics.
Presidential Studies Quarterly 37 (1):66-84.
(http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/118521130/abstract)
Avella, Joseph R. 2000. The President, Congress, and Decision Making to Employ Military
Force. In The Presidency Then and Now, edited by P. G. Henderson. Lanham, Md.:
Rowman & Littlefield Publishers. pp. 47-68 (K)
Yoo, John. 2006. The Powers of War and Peace: The Constitution and Foreign Affairs after
9/11. Chicago: Chicago University Press. Ch 5: ‘War Powers for a New World,’ pp.
143-181, 331-338. (K)
Savage, Charlie. 2008. For White House, Hiring Is Political (White House Pushed List of
'Loyalists' for Hire). New York Times, July 31
[http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/31/washington/31capital.html].
You must also familiarize yourself with these three recent Supreme Court decisions:
• Hamdi v. Rumsfeld (2004) [eg, http://laws.findlaw.com/us/000/03-6696.html]
• Hamdan v. Rumsfeld (2006) [eg, http://laws.findlaw.com/us/000/05-184.html]
• Boumediene v. Bush (2008) [eg, http://laws.findlaw.com/us/000/06-1195.html]
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9 – October 23, George W. Bush – The Unitary Executive Theory III
"The Bush administration's idea that you could transplant a Jeffersonian democracy to
Iraq and christen it with a single election and a lot of fingers dipped in ink was
ridiculous." Anthony Zinni, National Journal 5/3/08, p. 26.
"We have long since made clear that a state of war is not a blank check for the
President when it comes to the rights of the Nation's citizens.” Sandra Day O’Connor,
in Hamdi v. Rumsfeld, 03-6696 (2004).
Adler, David Gray. 2006. The Law: George Bush as Commander in Chief: Toward the Nether
World of Constitutionalism. Presidential Studies Quarterly 36 (3):525-540.
(http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/118611222/abstract)
Pfiffner, James P. 2008. Constraining Executive Power: George W. Bush and the
Constitution. Presidential Studies Quarterly 38 (1):123-143.
(http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/119404153/abstract)
Kelley, Christopher S., and Bryan W. Marshall. 2008. The Last Word: Presidential Power and
the Role of Signing Statements. Presidential Studies Quarterly 32 (2):248 - 267.
(http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/119404165/abstract
Rozell, Mark J., and Mitchel A. Sollenberger. 2008. Executive Privilege and the U.S.
Attorneys Firings. Presidential Studies Quarterly 38 (2):315-328.
(http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/119404170/abstract)
Brinkley, Douglas. 2006. What Will History Say? Move Over, Hoover. The Washington Post,
December 3, B01.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/12/01/AR2006120101511.html
Cannato, Vincent J. 2006. What Will History Say? Time's On His Side. The Washington Post,
December 3, B01.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/12/01/AR2006120101497.html
Foner, Eric. 2006. What Will History Say? He's The Worst Ever. The Washington Post,
December 3, B01
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/12/01/AR2006120101509.html
Greenberg, David. 2006. What Will History Say? At Least He's Not Nixon. The Washington
Post, December 3, B01.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/12/01/AR2006120101506.html
Lind, Michael. 2006. What Will History Say? He's Only Fifth Worst. The Washington Post,
December 3, B05.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/12/01/AR2006120101475.html
USAToday. 2008. Bush's approval ratings through the years.
(http://www.usatoday.com/news/graphics/presidential_approval/flash.htm.
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10 – October 30, Measuring Presidential Performance
"A close inspection of Schlesinger's panel invites suspicion that participants were
selected as much for the conclusions they were likely to reach as for their scholarly
credentials" (Felzenberg 1997:51).
Schlesinger Jr., Arthur M. 1997. Rating the Presidents: Washington to Clinton. Political
Science Quarterly 12 (2):179-190.
(http://www.jstor.org/stable/2657937)
Felzenberg, Alvin S. et al. 1997. "There You Go Again". Liberal Historians and the New
York Times Deny Ronald Reagan his Due. Policy Review 82 (March-April):51-53.
(Internet)
Piereson, James. 1997. Historians and the Reagan Legacy. The Weekly Standard 3 (3
(September 29)):22-24. (K)
Gregg, Gary L. 1998. Liberals, Conservatives, and the Presidency. The Intercollegiate Review
33 (2):26-31.
(Internet)
Grendstad, Gunnar. 2008. And we will know their greatness by the trail of controversy:
Washington, Lincoln, and F. Roosevelt and their increasingly contested successors.
Presidential Studies Quarterly 38 (3).
(http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/118521124/toc)
Grendstad, Gunnar, and Eirik Vestrheim. 2008. The Effect of Divided Government and a
Polarized Congress on Presidential Performance. Paper. (To be made available later.)
[November 4, Election Day]
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11 – November 6, Perfecting the Presidency
Sabato, Larry J. 2007. A More Perfect Constitution: 23 Proposals to Revitalize Our
Constitution and Make America a Fairer Country: Walker. Ch 2: ‘Perfecting the
Presidency.’ pp 76-107, 275-286. + noter. (K)
Election forecasts post mortem
Seminar wrap-up
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