School of Business Administration
SBA Mission Statement:
"We develop socially responsible business leaders with a
global mindset through academically rigorous, relevant,
and values-based education and research.”
GSBA 502 (2 units) - Statistics for Managers
Spring 2014 (January 27 - April 9)
MW, 5:30 - 6:50 pm, Olin Hall 327
Prof. Dirk Yandell
USD office:
OH 315
USD phone:
(619) 260-4835
yandell@sandiego.edu
http://www.sandiego.edu/~yandell
Office Hours, Spring 2014:
10:00 am - 12:15 pm Monday
2:30 pm - 5:30 pm Monday, Wednesday
E-mail or call to schedule other times – (619) 260-4835
I will often be available at other times (Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday mornings are likely and
12:15 - 2:15 T-Th may work, but meetings are often scheduled from 12:15 - 1:45 on T-Th and I have
Wednesday meetings twice a month from 10 am - noon). Please feel free to call or stop by anytime, or
send me e-mail or leave a voice-mail message and I will reply as soon as possible. E-mail is probably
the best way to reach me.
Course Description:
This course examines how managers use data for systematic business problem-solving. Topics include
collecting data, describing and presenting data, probability, statistical inference, regression analysis,
forecasting and risk analysis. Special emphasis will be given to computer techniques, especially using
Microsoft Excel, for statistical analysis and problem solving. Common business processes and
business skills practiced are gathering and organizing data, quantitative data analysis, forecasting,
decision-making under uncertainty and communicating or presenting results. Teaching methods are
lecture, computer assignments, case studies, and projects.
Course Objectives:
This course examines important tools for critical thinking, decision making under uncertainty, and
quantitative data analysis and applies them in business and economic decision situations. The
objectives are to help students assess risk, understand data, and apply statistical tools for problem
solving. By the end of the course, students will be able to
P
identify appropriate data needs and acquire information to improve decision making
P
use appropriate technology to search for, collect, organize, and present relevant data
P
identify and apply appropriate analytical techniques to analyze data
P
explain ethical issues in data analysis and presentation
P
apply models of decision making under uncertainty, and understand strategies for reducing,
absorbing, or deflecting risk
P
interpret results of statistical analysis of data
P
effectively communicate results to others
This course will help students obtain and process information, and provide skills in probability and
statistics and risk analysis and measurement. Topics to be covered include probability distributions,
random variables, sampling, estimation, hypothesis testing, risk assessment and analysis, decision
making under uncertainty, simple and multiple regression analysis, and business forecasting. All
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students are expected to have completed on-line modules on descriptive statistics before starting this
course.
Course Material:
A.
Required Textbook:
Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, Levine, Stephan, Krehbiel, and Berenson, 6th
Edition, Prentice Hall, 2011. The textbook companion web page contains helpful content:
http://wps.prenhall.com/bp_levine_statsexcel_6/.
From the textbook website listed above, download the free PHStat2 Software (a new version
exists for OS X Excel 2011 and 32-bit & 64-bit versions of Microsoft Excel, or an older
Windows-only version is available), and access the ReadMe file for this version. This program
provides statistical tools not available in Excel’s Data Analysis ToolPak. Installation instructions
can be found on the download site.
PhStat runs as an add-in to Microsoft Excel so you must install it on a computer with a recent
version of Excel with the Data Analysis ToolPak active. (Academic versions of Excel or the full
Microsoft Office suite are available in the bookstore at a reduced student price.) If you are a Mac
user there are some compatibility issues to be aware of. The bad news is that Excel for Mac
(2011 or older) is not compatible with the Data Analysis ToolPak. The good news is the newest
version of PHStat is compatible with Excel 2011 for Mac.
B.
I will distribute a course CD with all course PowerPoints, data sets, multimedia demonstrations, and
other support materials
C.
Other lecture material and class handouts will be distributed throughout the course
D.
Optional Supplemental Reading:
Basic research and statistics references:
Business Research Sources, F. Patrick Butler, Irwin McGraw-Hill, 1999.
Learning Business Statistics with Microsoft Excel, John L. Neufeld, Prentice Hall, 2001.
Statistics Without Tears, Derek Rowntree, Scribner’s Sons, 1981.
Statistics in Plain English, Timothy C. Urdan, Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Inc.; 2nd edition,
2005.
Misused Statistics:
How to Lie With Statistics, Darrell Huff, W.W. Norton & Co., 1954.
Statistics You Can’t Trust, Steve Campbell, Think Twice Publishing, 1999.
Misused Statistics, A.J. Jaffee and Herbert Spirer, Marcel Dekker, Inc., 1987.
Decision Making, Risk, and Uncertainty:
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, Nassim N. Taleb, Random House, 2007.
Fooled by Randomness: The hidden role of chance in the markets and in life, Nassim N. Taleb,
Random House, 2nd edition, 2005.
Risk Management, Bell and Schleifer, Course Technology, Inc. (International Thompson
Publishing), 1995.
Decision Making Under Uncertainty, Bell and Schleifer, Course Technology, Inc. (International
Thompson Publishing), 1995.
Probability and Statistics History (and fun to read):
Numbers Rule Your World: The hidden influence of probability and statistics on everything you
do, Kaiser Fung, McGraw Hill, 2010.
Against the Gods : The Remarkable Story of Risk, Peter L. Bernstein, John Wiley & Sons, 1996.
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Course Requirements And Student Evaluation:
Students will be evaluated on individual work, quizzes, exams, and team projects.
A.
Individual work will be assigned throughout the course. You may drop your lowest individual work
score. All assignments are due at the beginning of the class period for which they are assigned.
Assignments may include problem sets, computer data analysis projects, and short case studies. There
will be about five or six assignments. After dropping your lowest score, the total points possible is 50.
B.
There will be three quizzes during the semester. Quizzes will normally be short (30 minutes or so) and
will be completed in class. Each quiz is worth 75 points. I will drop your lowest quiz score. Total
points possible will be 150.
C.
Two team projects are required, contributing a total of 100 points to the semester grade. The first team
projects is worth 40 points, the second project is worth 60 points.
D.
A final exam will be given in class on our last class day, Wednesday, April 9. This exam is worth 150
points.
E.
Cooperation between students to learn the material is encouraged. Individual assignments, quizzes,
and exams, however, are to be done individually. Ethical behavior is expected, and cheating is dealt
with according to USD's academic integrity policy.
F.
Grades will be based on student performance, with a total of 450 points available during the semester.
Generally, grades follow the distribution below:
semester average of
92% and above
90% - 91%
88% - 89%
82% - 87%
80% - 81%
below 80%
A
AB+
B
BC+ or lower
Assignment, Quiz, and Exam Policy:
Unless otherwise announced, you should have assignments completed and ready to hand in at the
beginning of the class on the date they are due.
Exams will be primarily problem and short interpretation questions. Subjective questions will be
graded to reflect my analysis of your organization and clarity of expression as well as your mastery of
content and concept.
Hand-held calculators may be used during examinations, and a one page handwritten sheet may be
prepared for use on the quizzes and exams. The sheet may contain any information that you wish
(equations, explanations, prayers, etc...). You must turn in your help sheet with the exam or quiz. The
textbook may not be used during the exams. Finally, assume that if a graph or a formula would aid
your explanation, it belongs in your answer.
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Electronic Devices Policy
Computers may be used in class if you use them to take notes or follow a class PowerPoint
presentation. It is not appropriate to use them for non-class related activities during class time. There
will be some times that I will ask that all computers be closed. Phones (voice and text) and other
personal electronic devices should not be used in class, please keep them turned off.
Miscellaneous Comments:
Attendance is critical for success in this class. Although attendance is neither recorded nor explicitly
used to determine your final grade, you will find it much easier to keep up and master the material if
you attend regularly. You are responsible for all material covered in class or assigned during a class
even if you were absent. Please contact me as soon as possible if you know you must miss a class.
Academic Integrity
Quizzes and exams are to be done individually. You may work in teams on the homework if you
like, but each member must make contributions and each person must turn in the complete
assignment. Ethical behavior is expected, cheating is not tolerated. Acts of academic dishonesty are
taken seriously and dealt with harshly. Acts of academic dishonesty include:
a) unauthorized assistance on an examination; b) falsification or invention of data; c) unauthorized
collaboration on an academic exercise; d) plagiarism; e) misappropriation of research material; f)
unauthorized access of an instructor’s files or computer account; or g) any serious violation of
academic integrity as established by the instructor. You are encouraged to review the University's
academic integrity procedures in the Graduate Bulletin.
Instructor Evaluation
Each student will be asked to complete an anonymous instructor evaluation at the end of the course.
To provide immediate anonymous input during the course, each student is encouraged to complete the
Daily Class Evaluation Form from my web site. Your suggestions are appreciated and help me in my
efforts for continuous improvement. The direct link to the form is
http://www.sandiego.edu/~yandell/eval.php
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Semester Outline
In-Class Topic List:
Text Chapter
Chapter 1
Chapter 2
Chapter 3
Chapter 4
Chapter 5
Online Chapter 19
Topic
Introduction
Organizing and Visualizing Data
Numerical Descriptive Measures
Basic Probability
Discrete Probability Distributions
Decision Making
Quiz #1
Chapter 6
Chapter 7
Chapter 8
Chapter 9
Chapter 10
The Normal Distribution and Other Continuous Distributions
Sampling and Sampling Distributions
Confidence Interval Estimation
Fundamentals of Hypothesis Testing: One-Sample Tests
Two-Sample Tests
Team Project #1 for chapters 8-9-10
Quiz #2
Chapter 13
Chapter 14
Chapter 15
Chapter 16
Simple Linear Regression
Introduction to Multiple Regression
Multiple Regression Model Building
Time-Series Forecasting (it time allows)
Team Project #2 for chapters 13-14-15
Quiz #3
Final Exam
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Tentative Semester Schedule (Due dates may change)
GSBA 502 – Spring 2014 – Olin Hall 327
MW, Jan. 27 - April 9; 5:30 - 6:50 pm
Monday
January
Wednesday
27
29
First class meeting
February
3
5
Assignment #1 due, Ch 1-3
10
12
Quiz #1
March
17
19
24
26
3
5
Quiz #2
Team project #1 due + presentation
10
12
Spring Break
Spring Break
17
19
24
26
31
2
Quiz #3
April
9
7
Team project #2 due + presentation
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Final Exam
The USD School of Business Administration Learning Environment
A key educational mission of the School of Business Administration is to develop socially responsible leaders. USD
students are future leaders in business and professional organizations, and setting an appropriate professional tone is an
important aspect of the learning environment.
The highest levels of learning can be achieved only if all members of the USD community understand and respect their
mutual professional obligations. Each of us participates in the quality of the learning experience through our daily
actions and choices. These choices are not simply personal or isolated, but often influence the quality of the learning
experience of others. Outlined below is a set of specific expectations - for both students and faculty - that support a
professional learning environment.
EXPECTATIONS FOR STUDENTS
EXPECTATIONS FOR FACULTY
Students will treat their classroom obligations as they
would treat any serious professional engagement.
Faculty will treat their obligations for classes as they
would treat any serious professional engagement.
1) PREPARING THOROUGHLY for each session in
accordance with the instructor's requests;
1) PREPARING THOROUGHLY for each class;
2) ARRIVING PROMPTLY AND REMAINING until
the end of each class meeting, except in unusual
circumstances; informing the instructor of any absences;
2) PUNCTUALITY in beginning class sessions on time,
and except under exceptional circumstances adherence
to the established schedule for all classes and exams;
3) PARTICIPATING FULLY AND
CONSTRUCTIVELY in all classroom activities and
discussions;
3) PROVIDING SUFFICIENT INFORMATION and
materials to enable students to prepare adequately for
class;
4) DISPLAYING APPROPRIATE COURTESY to all
involved in the class sessions in the USD community;
4) DISPLAYING APPROPRIATE COURTESY to all
involved in the class sessions. Courteous behavior
specifically entails communicating in a manner that
respects, and is sensitive to, the many individual
differences in the USD community;
5) USING TECHNOLOGY IN THE CLASSROOM
ONLY WHEN APPROPRIATE. Computers, mobile
phones (voice and text), and other personal electronic
devices should not be used in class, unless specifically
authorized by the instructor.
5) MONITORING APPROPRIATE TECHNOLOGY
USE IN THE CLASSROOM and clearly specifying
what uses are appropriate or allowed;
6) ADHERING TO DEADLINES AND TIMETABLES
established by the instructor;
6) SUPPLYING TIMELY INFORMATION ABOUT
STUDENT PERFORMANCE on projects, assignments,
and examinations;
7) PROVIDING CONSTRUCTIVE FEEDBACK TO
FACULTY MEMBERS regarding their performance.
Students should be as objective in their comments about
instructors as they expect instructors to be in their
evaluations of students.
7) PROVIDING CONSTRUCTIVE FEEDBACK TO
STUDENTS concerning their performance. Faculty
should be as objective in their feedback to students as
they expect students to be in their evaluation of faculty.
Portions adapted from the University of Chicago
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