School of Business Administration
SBA Mission Statement:
"We develop socially responsible business leaders with a global
mindset through academically rigorous, relevant, and values-based
education and research.”
Econ 216
Statistics for Business and Economics
4 units
Spring 2014
OH325, MW: 12:30-2:20 pm
Prof. Dirk Yandell
USD office:
OH 315
USD phone:
(619) 260-4835
yandell@sandiego.edu
http://www.sandiego.edu/~yandell
Office Hours, Spring 2014: (through April 9, subject to change after April 9)
10:00 am - 12:15 pm Monday
2:30 pm - 5:30 pm Monday, Wednesday
E-mail or call to schedule other times – (619) 260-4835
I will often be available at other times (Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday mornings are likely and 12:15 2:15 T-Th may work, but meetings are often scheduled from 12:15 - 1:45 on T-Th and I have Wednesday
meetings twice a month from 10 am - noon). Please feel free to call or stop by anytime, or send me e-mail or
leave a voice-mail message and I will reply as soon as possible. E-mail is probably the best way to reach me.
Course Description:
A systematic exposure to the issues and problems of applying and interpreting statistical analysis of business
situations. Topics include: descriptive statistics, probability, random variables and their distributions,
statistical inference, multiple regression and residual analysis, correlation, classical time series models, and
forecasting. Extensive computer analysis of data. Prerequisite: Math 130 or 150.
This course examines the systematic processes of business problem solving. Topics to be covered include
probability distributions, random variables, sampling, estimation, hypothesis testing, risk assessment and
analysis, decision making under uncertainty, simple and multiple regression analysis, and business
forecasting. Common business processes and business skills practiced are gathering and organizing data,
quantitative data analysis, forecasting, decision making under uncertainty, and communicating or presenting
results. Special emphasis will be given to computer techniques, especially using Microsoft Excel, for
statistical analysis and problem solving.
Course Objectives:
This course examines important tools for critical thinking, decision making under uncertainty, and
quantitative data analysis and applies them in business and economic decision situations. The objectives
are to help students assess risk, understand data, and apply statistical tools for problem solving. By the
end of the course, students will be able to:
P
identify objectives, alternatives, and sources of risk in a decision situation
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P
P
P
P
P
P
apply models of decision making under uncertainty, and understand strategies for reducing,
absorbing, or deflecting risk
identify appropriate data needs and acquire information to improve decision making
use appropriate technology to search for, collect, organize, and present relevant data
identify and apply appropriate analytical techniques to analyze data
interpret results of statistical analysis of data
effectively communicate results to others
Course Material:
A.
Required Textbook:
Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, Levine, Stephan, Krehbiel, and
Berenson, 6th Edition, Prentice Hall, 2011. The textbook companion web
page contains helpful content:
http://wps.prenhall.com/bp_levine_statsexcel_6/.
From the textbook website listed above, download the free PHStat2 Software (a new version
exists for OS X Excel 2011 and 32-bit & 64-bit versions of Microsoft Excel, or an older
Windows-only version is available), and access the ReadMe file for this version. This program
provides statistical tools not available in Excel’s Data Analysis ToolPak. Installation instructions
can be found on the download site.
PhStat runs as an add-in to Microsoft Excel so you must install it on a computer with a recent
version of Excel with the Data Analysis ToolPak active. (Academic versions of Excel or the full
Microsoft Office suite are available in the bookstore at a reduced student price.) If you are a Mac
user there are some compatibility issues to be aware of. The bad news is that Excel for Mac
(2011 or older) is not compatible with the Data Analysis ToolPak. The good news is the newest
version of PHStat is compatible with Excel 2011 for Mac.
B.
I will use “Personal Response Pads” (clickers) during class. USD has chosen the “i>clicker”
to be used across campus. The clicker can be purchased from the USD bookstore or online.
Registration details will be provided in class.
C.
Other course materials and requirements:
•
Lecture material and class handouts, including the course CD-ROM.
•
Access to a PC or Mac with a recent version of Microsoft Excel and PowerPoint
(available on USD lab PCs).
D.
Course administration and additional course material may be made available on my web page,
http://www.sandiego.edu/~yandell
E.
Optional Supplemental Reading:
Basic research and statistics references:
Business Research Sources, F. Patrick Butler, Irwin McGraw-Hill, 1999.
Learning Business Statistics with Microsoft Excel, John L. Neufeld, Prentice Hall, 2001.
Statistics Without Tears, Derek Rowntree, Scribner’s Sons, 1981.
Statistics in Plain English, Timothy C. Urdan, Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Inc.; 2nd edition, 2005.
Misused Statistics:
How to Lie With Statistics, Darrell Huff, W.W. Norton & Co., 1954.
Statistics You Can’t Trust, Steve Campbell, Think Twice Publishing, 1999.
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Misused Statistics, A.J. Jaffee and Herbert Spirer, Marcel Dekker, Inc., 1987.
Decision Making, Risk, and Uncertainty:
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, Nassim N. Taleb, Random House, 2007.
Fooled by Randomness: The hidden role of chance in the markets and in life, Nassim N. Taleb,
Random House, 2nd edition, 2005.
Risk Management, Bell and Schleifer, Course Technology, Inc. (International Thompson Publishing),
1995.
Decision Making Under Uncertainty, Bell and Schleifer, Course Technology, Inc. (International
Thompson Publishing), 1995.
Probability and Statistics History (and fun to read):
Numbers Rule Your World: The hidden influence of probability and statistics on everything you do,
Kaiser Fung, McGraw Hill, 2010.
Against the Gods : The Remarkable Story of Risk, Peter L. Bernstein, John Wiley & Sons, 1996.
Course Requirements And Student Evaluation:
Students will be evaluated on homework assignments, quizzes, exams, and team projects.
A.
Assignments to be completed outside of class will be announced regularly. You may drop your lowest
assignment score. All assignments are due at the beginning of the class period for which they are assigned.
Assignments may include problem sets, computer data analysis projects, and short case studies. Point
values may vary, and I will drop your lowest homework score. Also, review questions will be done in class
with the “i>clicker” personal response devices. A total of 80 points during the semester will be made up of
homework assignments and the clicker points.
B.
There will be three quizzes during the semester. Quizzes will normally be short (30 minutes or so) and will
be completed in class. Each quiz is worth 50 points. I will drop your lowest quiz score. Total semester
points for quizzes will be 100.
C.
Three team projects are required, contributing a total of 150 points to the semester grade. The first two
team projects are worth 40 points each, the third project is worth 70 points.
D.
Three exams will be given in class as noted on the daily class schedule. Each exam is worth 100 points.
The last exam will be given on the scheduled final exam day, Wednesday, April 21, from 2:00 pm - 4:00
pm.
E.
Cooperation between students to learn the material is encouraged. You may work together on the
homework assignments, but you must each turn in your own copy of the assignment. Quizzes, and exams,
however, are to be done individually. Ethical behavior is expected, and cheating is dealt with according to
USD's academic integrity policy.
F.
Grades will be based on student performance, with a total of 630 points available during the semester.
Generally, grades follow the distribution below:
semester average of
92% and above
90% - 91.99%
88% - 89.99%
82% - 87.99%
80% - 81.99%
below 80%
A
AB+
B
BC+ or lower
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Assignment, Quiz, and Exam Policy:
Unless otherwise announced, you should have assignments completed and ready to hand in at the beginning
of the class on the date they are due.
Exams will be primarily problem and short interpretation questions. Subjective questions will be graded to
reflect my analysis of your organization and clarity of expression as well as your mastery of content and
concept.
Hand held calculators may be used during examinations, and a one page handwritten sheet may be prepared
for use on the quizzes and exams. The sheet may contain any information that you wish (equations,
explanations, prayers, etc...). You must turn in the help sheet with the exam or quiz. The textbook may not
be used during the exams. Finally, assume that if a graph or a formula would aid your explanation, it
belongs in your answer.
Electronic Devices Policy
Computers may be used in class if you use them to take notes or follow a class PowerPoint presentation.
Otherwise laptop screens should be down. There are times when I will ask that all computer screens be
down. It is not appropriate to use electronic devices for non-class related activities during class time.
Phones (voice and text) and other personal electronic devices are not to be used in class, please keep them
turned off.
Miscellaneous Comments:
Attendance is critical for success in this class. Although attendance is neither recorded nor explicitly used
to determine your final grade, you will find it much easier to keep up and master the material if you attend
regularly. You are responsible for all material covered in class or assigned during a class even if you were
absent. Please contact me as soon as possible if you know you must miss a class.
Academic Integrity
Quizzes and exams are to be done individually. Ethical behavior is expected, cheating is not tolerated. Acts
of academic dishonesty are taken seriously and dealt with harshly according to the University’s policies.
Acts of academic dishonesty include: a) unauthorized assistance on an examination; b) falsification or
invention of data; c) unauthorized collaboration on an academic exercise; d) plagiarism; e)
misappropriation of research material; f) unauthorized access of an instructor’s files or computer account; or
g) any serious violation of academic integrity as established by the instructor. You are encouraged to
review the University's academic integrity procedures in the Undergraduate Bulletin.
Instructor Evaluation
Each student will be asked to complete an anonymous instructor evaluation at the end of the course. To
provide immediate anonymous input during the course, each student is encouraged to complete the Daily
Class Evaluation Form from my web site. Your suggestions are appreciated and help me in my efforts for
continuous improvement. The direct link to the form is
http://www.sandiego.edu/~yandell/eval.php
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Brief Topic List
Text Chapter
Chapter 1
Chapter 2
Chapter 3
Chapter 4
Chapter 5
Online Chapter 19
Topic
Introduction
Organizing and Visualizing Data
Numerical Descriptive Measures
Basic Probability
Discrete Probability Distributions
Decision Making
Exam #1
Chapter 6
Chapter 7
Chapter 8
Chapter 9
Chapter 10
The Normal Distribution and Other Continuous Distributions
Sampling and Sampling Distributions
Confidence Interval Estimation
Fundamentals of Hypothesis Testing: One-Sample Tests
Two-Sample Tests
Exam #2
Chapter 13
Chapter 14
Chapter 15
Chapter 16
Simple Linear Regression
Introduction to Multiple Regression
Multiple Regression Model Building
Time-Series Forecasting (it time allows)
Exam #3
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Tentative Semester Calendar (dates subject to change)
Econ 216 S Spring 2014
MW 12:30 - 2:20 pm; Olin Hall 325
Monday
January
Wednesday
27
29
First class meeting
February
3
5
10
12
17
19
Quiz #1
24
March
26
3
5
Test #1
10
12
Spring Break
Spring Break
17
19
24
26
Quiz #2
31
April
2
7
9
Test #2
14
16
21
23
Easter Holiday
28
May
30
5
7
Quiz #3
14
12
Last class meeting
Final Exam
Week 5/16 - 5/22
Study Day
19
21
Final Exam, 2 pm - 4 pm
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