US Economic Indicators:
Merchandise Trade
Yardeni Research, Inc.
March 4, 2016
Dr. Edward Yardeni
516-972-7683
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Debbie Johnson
480-664-1333
djohnson@yardeni.com
Mali Quintana
480-664-1333
aquintana@yardeni.com
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Table Of Contents
Table Of Contents
US Merchandise Trade
Petroleum Exports & Imports
US Trade by Major Categories
US Trade By Major Regions
US Trade By Major Partners
Export Share By Regions
West Coast Ports
March 4, 2016 / US Economic Indicators: Merchandise Trade
1-3
4-5
6-7
8-9
10-12
13-14
15
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US Merchandise Trade
Figure 1.
1600
1500
1600
REAL MERCHANDISE EXPORTS
(billions of 2009 dollars, saar)
1500
1400
Monthly Data
1300
GDP Data
Jan
1400
1300
1200
1200
1100
1100
1000
1000
900
900
800
800
700
700
2000
2400
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2400
REAL MERCHANDISE IMPORTS
(billions of 2009 dollars, saar)
2200
2200
Jan
2000
2000
1800
1800
Monthly Data
1600
1600
GDP Data
1400
1400
1200
1200
2000
-400
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
-400
REAL MERCHANDISE TRADE BALANCE
-450
-500
-550
-450
Monthly Data*
(billions of 2009 dollars)
GDP Accounts
(billions of 2005 dollars)
-500
-550
-600
-600
-650
-650
-700
-700
Q1
-750
-800
-750
-800
-850
-850
yardeni.com
-900
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Census Bureau, and Haver Analytics. * January data.
Page 1 / March 4, 2016 / US Economic Indicators: Merchandise Trade
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-900
2016
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US Merchandise Trade
Figure 2.
1700
1700
US MERCHANDISE EXPORTS
(billion dollars, saar)
1500
1500
Jan
1300
1300
Nominal
Real
(2009 dollars)
1100
1100
900
900
700
700
500
yardeni.com
2000
2001
500
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Source: Bureau of the Census.
Figure 3.
30
30
US MERCHANDISE EXPORTS
(yearly percent change)
20
20
10
10
0
0
Jan
Nominal (-9.4)
-10
-10
Real (-3.8)
-20
-30
-20
yardeni.com
2000
2001
-30
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Source: Bureau of the Census.
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US Merchandise Trade
Figure 4.
2500
2400
2500
US MERCHANDISE IMPORTS
(billion dollars, saar)
2400
2300
2300
2200
2200
Nominal
Jan
Real
(2009 dollars)
2100
2000
2100
2000
1900
1900
1800
1800
1700
1700
1600
1600
1500
1500
1400
1400
1300
1300
1200
1200
1100
1100
yardeni.com
1000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
1000
2016
Source: Bureau of the Census.
Figure 5.
40
40
US MERCHANDISE IMPORTS
(yearly percent change)
30
30
20
20
10
10
Jan
0
-10
0
-10
Nominal (-5.7)
Real (1.8)
-20
-20
-30
-30
-40
yardeni.com
2000
2001
-40
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Source: Bureau of the Census.
Page 3 / March 4, 2016 / US Economic Indicators: Merchandise Trade
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Petroleum Exports & Imports
Figure 6.
2300
2300
US EXPORT & IMPORTS EX PETROLEUM PRODUCTS
(billion dollars, saar)
2100
2100
1900
1900
1700
1700
Exports
Imports
1500
1500
Jan
1300
1300
1100
1100
900
900
700
700
yardeni.com
500
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
500
2016
Source: Census Bureau.
Figure 7.
850
800
850
US IMPORTS MINUS EXPORTS (EX PETROLEUM PRODUCTS)
(billion dollars, saar)
800
750
750
700
Jan
700
650
650
600
600
550
550
500
500
450
450
400
400
350
350
300
300
250
250
yardeni.com
200
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
200
2016
Source: Census Bureau.
Page 4 / March 4, 2016 / US Economic Indicators: Merchandise Trade
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Petroleum Exports & Imports
Figure 8.
700
650
700
US CRUDE OIL & PETROLEUM PRODUCTS EXPORTS & IMPORTS
(billion dollars, saar)
650
600
600
550
550
500
500
450
450
Imports
400
400
Exports
350
350
300
300
250
250
200
200
150
150
100
100
Jan
50
50
yardeni.com
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
0
2018
Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
Figure 9.
600
600
US IMPORTS MINUS EXPORTS OF CRUDE OIL & PETROLEUM PRODUCTS
(billion dollars, saar)
500
500
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
Jan
0
yardeni.com
2000
2001
0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
Page 5 / March 4, 2016 / US Economic Indicators: Merchandise Trade
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US Trade by Major Categories
Figure 10.
750
700
750
US MERCHANDISE EXPORTS & IMPORTS
(billion dollars, saar)
700
650
650
600
600
Jan
550
550
500
500
450
450
400
400
Consumer Goods Ex Autos
350
350
Exports
300
300
Imports
250
250
200
200
150
150
100
100
yardeni.com
50
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
50
2016
Source: Census Bureau.
Figure 11.
650
650
US MERCHANDISE EXPORTS & IMPORTS
(billion dollars, saar)
600
600
Capital Goods Ex Autos
Exports
550
550
Imports
Jan
500
500
450
450
400
400
350
350
300
300
yardeni.com
250
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
250
2016
Source: Census Bureau.
Page 6 / March 4, 2016 / US Economic Indicators: Merchandise Trade
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US Trade by Major Categories
Figure 12.
400
400
US MERCHANDISE EXPORTS & IMPORTS
(billion dollars, saar)
Jan
350
350
300
300
250
250
200
200
Automobile Vehicles,
Parts and Engines
Exports
150
150
Imports
100
100
yardeni.com
50
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
50
2016
Source: Census Bureau.
Figure 13.
1050
950
1050
US MERCHANDISE EXPORTS & IMPORTS
(billion dollars, saar)
950
Industrial Materials & Supplies
850
850
Exports
750
750
Imports
Imports Ex Energy*
650
650
550
550
450
Jan
450
350
350
250
250
150
150
yardeni.com
50
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
50
2016
* Excludes crude oil, fuel oil and petroleum products, other.
Source: Census Bureau.
Page 7 / March 4, 2016 / US Economic Indicators: Merchandise Trade
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US Trade By Major Regions
Figure 14.
700
650
700
US MERCHANDISE TRADE: EXPORTS & IMPORTS
(6-month average, billion dollars, annual rate, nsa)
650
600
600
North America
550
550
Exports
500
Jan
Imports
500
450
450
400
400
350
350
300
300
250
250
200
200
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
550
550
500
500
450
450
Europe
Exports
400
400
Imports
350
350
Jan
300
300
250
250
200
200
150
150
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
360
360
320
320
280
Euro Area
280
Exports
240
Imports
240
200
Jan
200
160
160
120
120
yardeni.com
80
2000
2001
2002
Source: Census Bureau.
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Page 8 / March 4, 2016 / US Economic Indicators: Merchandise Trade
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
80
2016
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US Trade By Major Regions
Figure 15.
900
800
900
US MERCHANDISE TRADE: EXPORTS & IMPORTS
(6-month moving average, billions of US dollars, nsa)
700
800
700
Pacific Rim
Exports
600
600
Imports
500
500
400
Jan
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
200
200
180
180
160
160
Latin America
Jan
Exports
140
140
Imports
120
120
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
300
300
Middle East
200
200
Exports
Imports
100
100
Jan
yardeni.com
0
2000
2001
2002
Source: Census Bureau.
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Page 9 / March 4, 2016 / US Economic Indicators: Merchandise Trade
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
0
2016
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US Trade By Major Partners
Figure 16.
600
600
US MERCHANDISE TRADE: EXPORTS & IMPORTS
(6-month average, billion dollars, annual rate, nsa)
500
500
400
400
China
Exports
300
300
Imports
200
200
Jan
100
0
100
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
350
350
300
300
Mexico
250
250
Exports
Jan
Imports
200
200
150
150
100
100
50
50
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
50
50
40
40
Brazil
Exports
30
Jan
Imports
30
20
20
10
10
yardeni.com
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
0
2016
Source: Census Bureau.
Page 10 / March 4, 2016 / US Economic Indicators: Merchandise Trade
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US Trade By Major Partners
Figure 17.
1000
1000
US MERCHANDISE TRADE: EXPORTS & IMPORTS
(6-month average, billions dollars, annual rate, nsa)
800
800
G6 Countries
Exports
Imports
600
600
Jan
400
400
200
200
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
400
400
Canada
Exports
300
300
Imports
Jan
200
200
100
100
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
60
60
France
50
50
Exports
Imports
40
40
30
Jan
20
30
20
10
10
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
140
140
120
120
Germany
100
Exports
100
80
Imports
80
60
60
Jan
40
40
yardeni.com
20
2000
2001
2002
Source: Census Bureau.
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Page 11 / March 4, 2016 / US Economic Indicators: Merchandise Trade
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
20
2016
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US Trade By Major Partners
Figure 18.
50
50
US MERCHANDISE TRADE: EXPORTS & IMPORTS
(6-month average, billion dollars, annual rate, nsa)
Italy
40
40
Exports
Imports
30
30
20
20
Jan
10
10
0
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
160
160
140
140
120
120
Japan
100
100
Exports
Imports
80
80
Jan
60
40
60
40
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
70
70
United Kingdom
60
60
Exports
Imports
Jan
50
50
40
40
yardeni.com
30
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
30
2016
Source: Census Bureau.
Page 12 / March 4, 2016 / US Economic Indicators: Merchandise Trade
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Export Share By Regions
Figure 19.
40
39
40
SHARE OF US EXPORTS
(6-month average, percent, nsa)
39
38
38
37
37
36
36
35
35
Jan
North America
34
34
33
33
32
32
31
31
30
30
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
27
27
26
26
Europe
25
25
24
24
23
23
22
22
Jan
21
20
21
20
19
19
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
18
18
17
17
Euro Area
16
16
15
15
14
14
Jan
13
13
12
12
yardeni.com
11
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
11
2016
Source: Census Bureau.
Page 13 / March 4, 2016 / US Economic Indicators: Merchandise Trade
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Export Share By Regions
Figure 20.
28
27
28
SHARE OF US EXPORTS
(6-month average, percent, nsa)
27
Pacific Rim
26
26
Jan
25
25
24
24
23
23
22
22
21
21
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
13
13
12
12
11
11
Latin America
10
Jan
10
9
9
8
8
yardeni.com
7
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
7
2016
Source: Census Bureau.
Page 14 / March 4, 2016 / US Economic Indicators: Merchandise Trade
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West Coast Ports
Figure 21.
800
800
WEST COAST PORTS CONTAINER TRAFFIC
(TEUs, thousands)
Jan
Inbound* (645.7)
600
600
Outbound* (233.0)
400
400
200
200
yardeni.com
0
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
0
17
* Sum of Port of Los Angeles and Port of Long Beach Loaded Continers.
Source: Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach.
Figure 22.
10000
10000
WEST COAST PORTS CONTAINER TRAFFIC
(TEUs, thousands, 12-month sum)
Jan
8000
8000
Inbound* (7957.6)
Outbound* (3192.4)
6000
6000
4000
4000
2000
2000
yardeni.com
0
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
0
17
* Sum of Port of Los Angeles and Port of Long Beach Loaded Continers.
Source: Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach.
Page 15 / March 4, 2016 / US Economic Indicators: Merchandise Trade
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